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Home My WebLink AboutResolution 10-03 01/19/2010 10-03 RESOLUTION NO. ~- A RESOLUTION OF THE COMMON COUNCIL OF THE CITY OF SPRINGFIELD ADOPTING THE DRAFT SPRINGFIELD COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL BUILDABLE LANDS INVENTORY, ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES AND IMPLEMENTATION STRATEGIES AS PART OF THE SPRINGFIELD 2030 REFINEMENT PLAN PURSUANT TO LCDC'S ECONOMIC DEVEVLOPMENT GOAL AND RULE IN ORDER TO CARRY OUT MANDATE OF 2007 OR LAWS CHAPTER 650 REQUIRING SPRINGFIELD TO ESTABLISH ITS OWN URBAN GROWTH BOUNDARY PURSUANT TO STATEWIDE LAND USE GOALS. WHEREAS, in 2007 the Oregon Legislature passed and the Governor signed into law 2007 Or Laws Chapter 650, codified as ORS 197.304 and commonly known as "House Bill 3337; and WHEREAS, HB 3337, as codified, provides as follows: 197.304 Lane County accommodation of needed housing. (1) Notwithstanding an intergovernmental agreement pursuant to ORS 190.003 to 190.130 or acknowledged comprehensive plan provisions to the contrary, a city within Lane County that has a population of 50,000 or more within its boundaries shall meet its obligation under ORS 197.295 to 197.314 separately from any other city within Lane County. The city shall, separately from any other city: (a) Establish an urban growth boundary, consistent with the jurisdictional area of responsibility specified in the acknowledged comprehensive plan; and (b) Demonstrate, as required by ORS 197.296, that its comprehensive plan provides sufficient buildable lands within an urban growth boundary established pursuant to statewide planning goals to accommodate estimated housing needs for 20 years. (2) Except as provided in subsection (1) of this section, this section does not alter or affect an intergovernmental agreement pursuant to ORS 190.003 to 190.130 or acknowledged comprehensive plan provisions adopted by Lane County or local governments in Lane County. [2007 c.650 92] Note: Section 3, chapter 650, Oregon Laws 2007, provides: Sec. 3. A local government that is subject to section 2 of this 2007 Act [197.304] shall complete the inventory, analysis and determination required under ORS 197.296 (3) to begin compliance with section 2 of this 2007 Act within two years after the effective date of this 2007 Act [January 1,2008],[2007 c.650 S3]; and WHEREAS, the City of Springfield has commissioned a Commercial and Industrial Buildable Lands Study (CIBL) to outline Springfield's employment land needs for the next 20 years as part of Springfield 2030 Refinement Plan pursuant to LCDC's Economic Development goal and rule in order to carry out mandate of 2007 Or Laws Chapter 650 requiring Springfield to separately establish its own urban growth boundary pursuant to statewide land use goals; and WHEREAS, the components of the Commercial and Industrial Buildable Lands Study (CIBL) are a Commercial and Industrial Buildable Lands Inventory, an Economic Opportunities Analysis and Economic Development Objectives and Implementation Strategies; and WHEREAS, the Commercial and Industrial Buildable Lands Inventory, Economic Opportunities Analysis and Economic Development Objectives and Implementation,Strategies are necessary components of Springfield's UGB determination; WHEREAS, local adoption of the Springfield Commercial and Industrial Buildable Lands Inventory, Economic Opportunities Analysis and Economic Development Objectives and Implementation Strategies is an interim step towards establishing Springfield's own urban growth boundary pursuant to statewide land use goals; and WHEREAS, the initial stage does not include adoption or amendment of an urban growth boundary or amendment to any comprehensive plan policies or designations; and WHEREAS, the remaining steps required by HB 3337 and ORS 196.296 and state land use goals require consideration of a variety of legal, policy, and factual issues before adoption of a final inventory, analysis, and determination of capacity; and WHEREAS, the formal adoption of the Draft Springfield Commercial and Industrial Buildable Lands Inventory, Economic Opportunities Analysis and Economic Development Objectives and Implementation Strategies by a resolution recognizes the nonfinal nature of this preliminary step; and WHEREAS, the final decision on adoption of the Springfield Commercial and Industrial Buildable Lands Inventory and Economic Opportunities Analysis shall be made by the Springfield City Council and the Lane County Board of Commissioners as the Springfield Commercial and Industrial Buildable Lands Inventory and Economic Opportunities Analysis is incorporated into the Springfield 2030 Refinement Plan, a refinement plan of the Eugene-Springfield Metro Plan. Subsequent action in compliance with HB3337 to establish a separate urban growth boundary for Springfield may rely in part on this document, a variation of this document, or entirely new documentation. The adoption of a UGB is an iterative process, and depending on how the record develops, the background assumptions, analysis and determinations in the attached Springfield Commercial and Industrial Buildable Lands Inventory and Economic Opportunities Analysis may change; and WHEREAS, the City of Springfield commissioned ECONorthwest to prepare a Commercial and Industrial Buildable Lands Inventory and Economic Opportunities Analysis outlining Springfield's employment needs for the next 20 years; and 10-03 RESOLUTION NO. =0:9=--j8= WHEREAS, Springfield has conducted the Commercial and Industrial Buildable Lands Study planning process to date in a manner consistent with Statewide Planning Goals 1 and 2, and evidence of the citizen involvement and intergovernmental coordination processes thus far is fully documented in the public record: application file number LRP2007-00031; and WHEREAS, timely and sufficient notice of the public hearing, pursuant to Springfield Development Code Section 5.2-115, has been provided; and WHEREAS, the Springfield Commercial and Industrial Buildable Lands Inventory and Economic Opportunities Analysis is consistent with 2007 Or Laws Chapter 650, State Economic Development Planning Goals and Rules OAR 660-0015, OAR 660- 009-0020, OAR 660-009-0025 as amended by LCDC in 2007, and applicable comprehensive plan policies. While not explicitly required by Or Laws 2007 Chapter 650, the Commercial and Industrial Buildable Lands Study supplements the residential lands determination required by Or Laws 2007 Chapter 650 by evaluation of the additional buildable lands necessary for the establishment of an urban growth boundary; and . WHEREAS, on December 15,2009, a public hearing on the Springfield Commercial and Industrial Buildable Lands Inventory and Economic Opportunities Analysis was held before the City of Springfield Planning Commission. The oral testimony, letters received, written submittals of the persons testifying at the hearing, and the public record for Springfield Development Services Department file # LRP2007- 00031 have been considered and hereby are incorporated into the record for this proceeding; and WHEREAS, on December 15,2009, the Planning Commission forwarded a unanimous recommendation to the City Council to approve the determination set forth in the Commercial and Industrial Buildable Lands Inventory and Economic Opportunities Analysis, as presented in Case No. LRP2007-00031; and WHEREAS, on the basis of this record, the proposed Springfield Commercial and Industrial Buildable Lands Inventory and Economic Opportunities Analysis as submitted is consistent with the criteria of 2007 Or Laws Chapter 650, State Economic Development Planning Goals and Rules OAR 660-0015, OAR 660-009-0020, OAR 660- 009-0025 as amended by LCDC in 2007, and applicable comprehensive plan policies. 10-03 RESOLUTION NO. ~~=~8 NOW THEREFORE BE IT RESOLVED, that the Common Council of the City of Springfield hereby declares its intention as follows: Section 1: The Common Council of the City of Springfield provisionally adopts, subject to further public input, refinement, correction, and revision, pending completion of the HB 3337 process, the determinations set forth in the Springfield Commercial and Industrial Buildable Lands Inventory and Economic Opportunities Analysis, as submitted and revised in the course of these proceedings presented herein at (Case No. LRP 2007- 00031), and attached hereto as Exhibit" A." ADOPTED by the Common Council and approved by the Mayor of the City of Springfield, Oregon, this 12-th day of Januar ,2010. by te f 5 for and o against (1 Absent - Leezer) ATIE*J~/JW~ REVIEWED & APPROVED AS TOfORM .1kfS~" DATE; .... 2..-. (] OFFICE.OF CITY ATTORNEY 10-03 RESOLUTION NO.=8~=~8= ;,! : " :..' . .' " ." J " . , .,,;. ) ~ ;' ,. .,'. ~ " :! lI'r . ' j " ' , " '. ", , i, . ',' -:,' ~ , >, > I " " , ,~ \' , ".1 ,,' ) ,; I. .' " ',. City of Spring' field : " Comtnerc,ial and Industria,l ,BuildableLan~'$lnv~nt<?ry' . . .' " 'anc:tE~onoJT1ic 9pportuniti,es ,'. . '. . Anal,ysJs': 't. . .,....'. .' '. :, I ' , , Prepared for' . . . . ~ \ . " . , . . . . City ot'Springfield . by ECONorthwest 99 W. Tenth, Suite 400 Eugene, OR 97401 (541) 687-0051 Draft Report September 2009 II i, I , . ,": ' ,', " ," . , . , '.; , " "P'I' I,: '~ ,I. : ~ ' , ',J .' , ,', ,,:' , " " ,,',' \', . Written by:' Robert Parker, Project Director Beth Goodman, Project Manager Whit Perkins, Research Assistant Date submitted: September 2009 ECO Project Number 7139 ECONorthwest 99 W. Tenth, Suite 400 Eugene, OR 97401 (541) 687-0051 'i .. , >', ',' Ac~n~wledgem~,nts , ; , ,\, l - ~', ; , , l' .' :', " ..", .' _ _:' ~ -;. ' " . '."" " - : , . ': ,'.', 1 ,,: ' , , Numerous p~ople 'contnbpted to ;~e cOI,Ilpietion ,of the SjJr41gaeld :ecop.oAli~ ~pp6rturUties' "~~lysis.:'We w9uldlike to acknowledge the,hardw6rk of theptoje~t~t~~~lllg Committee, T~chnica~ Advisory Comniittee( aIld City of Springfield Staff~ : ,::' ,,' Ste~ring Commi~ee , ' , , , ' , , , , " " ' '!he Steering Committee proyided community ahd businessinputm the economic " opportUruties analysis~' The Steering Committee pro~ided guidaJ1~e on develop~g " Sprmgfield~s ~dmo~icdeveloPD:lent ~trategy aIld proviged input on assumptions used in, ,'the economic opportunities analysis. SteeringC=OInmittee members illduded: City of, , Sp~irig~eld' ~I(:"!cted or appointedoffida]s,lo~a.l busin~ss owner~ 'and business people, land-, us~ advocacygrolIps,aTIdresidents:6fSpringfield; '" " ,',,' ,"" . ' " ' ..' .,':. " 'I. ",,' t. Lee B~yer;Planning Colmnis~ioner, Committee Co:'Chillr' , ", , " " , " "" Dan~gan; Exectitiv~Diredor, SpringfieldC,hapbei ofComillerce,c:otnmittee C6~Chair" '. ' NaomiCampollo,SpriJigfield HighSchQ()lStud~rtt " ' ",' '" " , Philip Fcrrringtotl, Directqr, Larid Use Plcini\p1g& DeveloPlllent, PeaceHealth .' George Grier, Board Memb~r,Lane County Farm Bureau" ' , Brianna Hu~er, Thurston Hig~ Scho,oIStci~erit' Mike Kelly, Springfield citizen " " '", " .,' Johnny Kirschenmann, Planning Commissioner " l\iayor'Sid Leik~n . '" ' " Donna Lentz, Springfield citizen ' , Dave Marra, DC Real Estate ' ' Doug McKay, McKay Commercial Properties LLC Eve Montanaro, Watershed Coordinator, Middle Fork Willamette Watershed Council . Don OldenBurg, Symantec Lauri Segel, Planner. Goall Coalition Tim Stokes, Local business owner Guy Weese, Board Member Emerald Empire Art Association Kari Westlund, Executive Director, Convention Visitors Association of Lane County Steven Yett, Paramount Center, LLC. Richard Boyles, as alternate to Kari Westlund Jim Welsh, JD Welsh Company as alternate to Dave Mara , ": Technical Adv:is()ry Committee . , , - J' , ,', '. , T~etechpis~l Advisory Committee (TAC) provided technical input in the e<;corto$ic . opportuniti~sanalysis: Th~ T AC irid~dedrt:presentatives from the City of Sptingfield . "Pti~iicW?rks :Department, 19'c(l1~erViC~ agencies, and s,tat~ agehde~. .,: " . .,': . ,\::,:'~' .':",,,,, , ",'. ,: .'":,. ::'.,,:'.',;'" "".'::; ",,:<: ",.:'." >'"l,':, :."', ' . '., Mary Bridget Smith, Attorney, City of Springfield Attomey'sOffice' '. 'Ken VogeIley,CityEng4leer, CltjrofSpringfieldEIlgirleering' . ' Matt Stouder, Engineering Supervisor, City of Springfield Engineering " , Len Goodwin, Assistant Public Works Director, City of Springfield.Public Works . BrianCo~on, Maintenance Division Managerr City of Springfield PubIlc Works Maintenance. Greg F~rschweiler, M'clintenance Supervisor, City of Springfield Public Works Mamtenance '. '. Tom Boyatt, Transportation Division Manager, City of Springfield Trcmsportati9n ". . .]onDriscoll, TraJ;lSpo~tationEngineer fuTiaining> City ofSpringfi~ld Transportation . . .' '. John Tamulonis>Conumiillty Development Man<,1ger,SpringfieldEconomit Dev~iopmeht AgehCy ..,..., ' ..,' . , , . . , . CoitrtneyGriesel/Plariner~ Springfie~d EcOl1()mic Development Agency. ", " . , Eq Moore> FieldE.epresentative, Department of Land Conservation and Deyelopment Jason rie<h:ick, A~soCiate Plaimer, EugeIle PlanningP~partinent ' .' ., ". .. Stephanie Shultz:,' Planner,L<0e tou,ntY' PlaimirlgD~par~eni " .' ". ,', , ' ': , Jack Roberts,Executive Director, Lane'Metro Partnership', ..,.'. . Chuck Gottfrieq, Assistant Manager; Metropolitan Wastewater Commission George Walker,Stormwater Facilities PlannerfMetropolitan Wastewater Commission,' ,David He1ton,.Transportationl~ciri~ Use Planiler,Oregon Dep~!bnent of. Tninsportation Bob Warren, Business Development Officer, OregonEconomic ~ Commynity Development Department " , Jeff DeFranco, Director ()f Communications and Facilities, Spriilgfield School District Will Lewis, Springfield School District .. . .. Robert Linahan, General Manager, Springfield Utility Board ' . . .. : . . Greg Hyde, Planning andDev~lopment Manager,Willamalane Parks arid Recreation District City of Springfield Staff . David Reesor, Senior Planner Bill Grile, Development Services Director Greg Mott, Planning Manager Linda Pauly, Planning Supervisor Mark Metzger, Senior Planner Susie Smith, Public Works Director; Brandt Melick, GIS Program Supervisor; Michael Engelmann, GIS Analyst , J! '. ,',' " , " \\ '" ,I; ~ .. II' 'I IF I I 0 ., " '" ';' " , ", , ~', 'Table of Contents ! ." ' ) . , ~ .,: :', ",' . " , " , .," '" ',',': :, '. " , ",' P~ge EXE CUTIVE S UM~R Y ..~.....~.:..........~.....~.'...............:..,.;.......:....:...~'...;:.:.,:.:..........'..;..;.....:.:.......;...;.......~........ .;...... l ~~~f~~~~:~r~~~~~;~::::::::::':,:::::::::::::::::,:::::::::::':::~:::::::::::i:::,:,':'::::::::::::;i:::::;:,:':::::::::;j , ' , CHAPTER 1. lNTR 0 ri U CTI 0 N.:.;..:..;;::....;.......:....::::..,..;...;.......::..:;...........:.;.;.......;...:.....;;;;......;.;.:....,..........;.';;.;.1 I ~~=l~ji::~~f~~:.~~~~,~~:~~~~:::;:::::::::::::,,:::::::::::::':::::::::':::::2::,::::::::::::::::1 'tHAPTER2.'LANhA v ~lLABLi:' FOR lNDl.iSTllIALAND OTHER EMPLOYMENTUSES ....,:..........:.;;.5 " I ". ,[~~~~::::::::;::;:i:;:::::::::::::'::;::::::::::::::::::::::::::":::::;:::::::::::';:::::::':::;:::,,:::::::::::::,:;::::,:::::::,::::::::::::::::::::::::'( ; I SHORT-TERM LANDSvPPL Y :..:., ~.....;.... ..: ...:..... ~. .:.. .:.... ...:::. ~..... ...~.:. .......:...,...... ..:... ;':...:........ ..:....... .:.......... :.;......... 25 J ' ,'.' ' ,. , , . I CHAPTER 3. ECONOMlC TRENDS AND FACTORS AFFEChNG FUTURE ECONOMlC GROWTH IN S PRlN G FlE LD .,....;.........;............:,.;.....~..;..........'.......,......,..........~.,....... ..'........:'. :..... :.,................................;...............29 t~~~~~i~,:::::::::::::::::::;::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::':;:;::::::::':::::::::::::::::::::'::::::::::::::::::::::::::::':::::::~: SPRINGFIELD'S COMPARATIVE ADY ANT AGES'... ........... .......................,.,.................:..........,.......... ..........,...................40 CHAPTER 4. LAND DEMAND AND SHE NEEDS IN SPRl.NGFlELD ...........;.............................;.................45 POTENTIAL GROWTH INDUSTRIES .':..........:................................:......,:........................................................ ...............45 SrrE NEEDS... ........... ................ .'..................;.... ....................................... ...... ................. ............. .............................53 CHAPTER 5. LAND CAP AClTY AND DEMAND ...............................................................................................57 COMPARISON OF LAND CAPACITY AND DEMAND ......................................;..............................................................57 CHARACTERISTICS OF NEEDED SITES...... ............ ........................................................ ....... ........... ........... ............ ..... 59 IMPLICATIONS... ............ ..... '" .............. ...... ........... ................. ...... ..........:............................. ..... .............. ........... ... ....63 APPENDlX A. NATIONAL, ST ATE, COUNTY, AND LOCAL TRENDS .......................................:................67 APPENDlX B. FACTORS AFFECTING FUTURE ECONOMIC GROWTH IN SPRl.NGFIELD..............;105 APPENDlX C. EMPLOYMENT FORECAST AND SHE NEEDS FOR INDUSTRIAL AND OTHER EMPLOYMENT USES...........................................................................................................................................119 ~, Executive Summary , 1 ,',' " " ,J,'. ", " ,"" ." 'c;" i'?' ," : " ,,' : ' , ': ,', ,,; " " ,: " ::: ,-' , :' ;"",: ',;: ,', \','. :: < _ ;' " , .: , ',Jh.is r~port prysents atiEc,onomic Opporhiniti~s, ATIalysiS(EOA)f~rthe ',; , "<:::ityofSpririgfield c<?TIsistept with the, n~quirements Of statewide p1aIming' , , Goaf9:and 'the, Goa19 admiIiistratiye:rule(OAR 660-009). A goal of this, , " project is to establish a clear'~conoInic development direction that' , ,,'" identifies the city's strengths arid opportunities, and its position in th.e broader SouthernWillamette Valley region. This project will facilitate employment opp()rtunities and job creation in Springfield by identifying iridustrialj emPloyment land needs and developing an, ec,onomic ' ;develop~erit strategy aimed ,at selected target industries. "WHA T'lSSp~fNGFIELb' S.ECONOMIC:[)EVELOPMENT,VISION?' , >,'., ",', ,Springfield is 'a bti~iIless:oriented city. the City is~dergoing , ;revitalization, with' on-gomg 'redevelopment effortS m Downtown and " , Glen-wood, and therecentopemng of the hospital at RiverBerid~TheCitY's vision foi, ecollorilic grqwth oyer the next 20-years ,combines sustaining , ' , existh1gbusinesses'cffidhelping them eXPand aild embracing a l?road ,',' "var~ety of new opportririities for growth. , ' ' , ,The economic dev~lopmeht strategy for Sprmgfield can be summarized as follows: " ' ' ' , .' " , " . . I . , n) Facilitate the redevelopment of Downtown Springfield and Glenwood' through' stra tegic infrastructure and other investments from programs such as urban renewal and planning for redevelopment. (2) Provide sites with a variety of site characteristics to meet both commercial and industrial economic opportunities, including providing sites that are available for relatively fast development. This includes providing large sites for major employers. (3) Use land within the existing urban growth boundary efficiently, through promoting redevelopment, infill development, and dense development in nodal areas. The study assumes that 52% of new employment during the planning period will locate on lands that are already developed. (4) Provide infrastructure efficiently and fairly by coordinating capital improvement planning with economic development planning. (5) Support and assist existing businesses within Springfield by assessing what help businesses need and developing programs to respond to business needs. Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis September 2009 ECONorthwest Page i . . . , '. "," > 11)- (6) Attract and develop new busine's~es, especially those related to ,regional business'clusters. The 'City would like t~ build on the :' deyeloping heal~ care 'duste:t:,'p!oin9tedevelopl,Ilentof high-tecp. businesses, and attract sustamable'businesses.' , ' ", ' ': " , ,', :: " ~ ~. , . :.' _ . .. . '" , ,": _ ; : ' ... ' , .": : ,: ,,', .",'" (7)MC),mtain fleXibility ill pla:ilpillg ilirough providing efficient . '..' " plapUng ~e~ices' mJd :developiTIg 'flexible planning policies to. . . ' . respohdto ~e changing needs of businesses. . . ' . " This is a brief summary of Springfield' s economic<:ievelopilU~nt strategy. ,Chapter 3 of this report provides more d~tail on Springfield's comparative . advantages and target industries; the Springfield EconomicDevelopment . Strategy (under separate COVe!) articul,ates the City'se,conomic',.' development vision. '" ' " "; " . TARGET,INDVStRIES.,.. I,. . klaii.alysis of~owtl{iI,l4tistries in Spiingfieklshmlld~d(hess~o mam ,. questioris:.(i)Which'indllstri~sareiIlostlikelyto b~ attraCted toth,e., '.' Eugene~Sprmgfield ar~~? ahd (2)Whichindustfie~ bestlIleet Sprirlgfield.'s,: . economic objectiv~s? The tYpes of industries that Springfield'w,-~ts to ' " '(1ttracthavethe followirig attributes: high-wage, stablejobswith benefitS; . jobs requiring skilled .arid unskilled labor; employers in a range of. industries that will contribute toa diverse economy; and indus~ies that are compatible ~ith Springfield's conUrimiity ~ci1ues: .' . . , " , , , . . . . " . , " . The characteristics of Springfield will affect the types of busm.esses most 'likely to locate in Springfield.' Springfield's attributes that may attract , firms are: the City's proximity to 1-5, high quality of life, proXimity to the University of Oregon, the presence of the RiverBend campus,' positive business climate, availability of skilled and semi-skilled labor, and proximity to indoor and outdoor recreational opportunities. Table S-l summarizes target industries for Springfield during the 2010 to 2030 planning period. Page ii ECONorthwest September 2009 Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis ,j. , , , .. Table S-1. Target industries, Springfield, 2010~2030 ' " , 'M~di~al ~ervi~es , , , Ta~get 'ndus~ry ,: Types of firms, Servic~s:f~r s~niors , , ,Smail Scale, Manufacturing, .', ," , . Call Centers '\: Back-Office FunCtions , .'Tourism' Specialty Food Processing High-Tech Professional and Technical Services Green businesses Corporate Headquarters Services for Residents , ' Attra<:~i~n t,o, Springfield I , . . . . l" "" ' ". J, ': "," , . . ' " ,", . '! '; Medical firms,medical research firms" 'Deveiopmemt of a medical cluster at :andother profess'ionalse'rVices' , giverBenc\ ',,', ' . ,'" -, ',' " ->, ,- '" . Health services that p'rovide services to older peo'ple, such, as assistec\living facilities or retirement centers , ' , Manufacturers of: medical equipment, high4ech electronics, recreational , equipment, furniture mamifactui'ing, speCialty apparel, and other 'specialty' ' manufacturing , Call 'cen.ters Aging population and 'presence of RiverBend Hospital, "Labor force, existing businesses, 'land availability, proximity to natural resources ' . , . . . E~isting call center cluster and trained' labor .force" , High quaiityof ii.fe, availabl~c:ind, ' " trainedlClbodorce, and relatively low" wage~ ' , . " ' , . , . Outdoo(recreational opportunities and regional events such as the Olympic Track <;lnd Fieldtrials, ,the Oregon ' Country Fair, or the University of Oregon Bach Festival ' . . . , . , , 'Proximity to agricultural,resources, , ' Access to highly educated labor, access to comparatively il1expensive electricity, and high quality of life Access to highly educated labor and high quality of life Access to highly educated labor, access to natural resources, and high quality of life High quality of life, location along 1-5, and availability of educated workers Growing population ,".' .:. '. ,Back~office functions Include, ' administr<;ltiye, functions, such as accounting or information tec~nology . ,Industries that semietoui"ists, such as food, services and accommodatio~s Food processing firms, such as those that specialize in organic ornatural 'foods or wineries The types of firms range from high- tech manufacturing to data centers to software development Engineering, research, medical~related professionals, and other professional services that are attracted to high- quality settings Green construction firms, organic food processing, sustainable logging and/or lumber products manufacturing, or alternative energy production Corporate headquarters Retail and government services, especially education Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis September 2009 ECONorthwest Page iii COMPARISON OF LAND CAPACITY AND DEMAND , . - .,. 1ffis section presents an ah~ly~is9f.1altd~~aila~ility and capac~ty for , employment uses in. Sprir1gfi~14. The.~eyconclU:sio~s jn this section ate: , ') , ." ,'.',.,' ',' i' ." ,'> .> ., , '. " " " , ' , '. ,: (1) The '~ajority of empI()y~ent grpwth in S'pringfi~Idwi~(not' , ,,' " ' require vacant land. The analysis concludes thafthat 52 % of new' " , , employment \-VouId not require vacant l~d, consistent with the ' CitY's economic' development strategies to encourage. redevelopment, especially in Downtown arid,Glenwood, This portion of employment addresses' the OAR 660-024':'0050 requirements that the City;consider "land use efficienCy measutes" ' priot to expandirigth~ UGH,. TheEOAdoes notd~scribe the' , . specific pQlicies the Cl~ will adopt to acfueve.tl1isleveI6finfilland" , 'redevelop~ent. Those p'()li~ies~ however, will be adopted aspart of , ...thec:ity's overallUGB justification. ',' " .' '. " ,. ",' , . ,(2) SptingfieId wiUllee4eIDPlOyment iand with chai~cte~isticsithat,' ,ca~l1()tbe ~oun~ within the ~xisting UGH,. ~e City willneed17' .,.,. . sites ~ithabout 6~0 acresof..industrial arid other empIoymentland. . on si~esfive acr~s and larger that cannot be ilccommodated within the existing UGB, , . ," , . . Table S-2 sl}ows'acomparison of land supply and need in terms 'of sites by '. .' site size, based onthe analysis of potential growth industries'in' ',' . Springfield in Chapter 4. The results show that Spiipgfield has a deficit.of about 6 industrial sites and 44 commercial and mixed use sites. ' Page iv ECONorthwest September 2009 Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis : :: I,. , .., 'I I' Table 5-2. Comparison of vacant land supply and site needs, industrial and other employment land, Springfi:~ld VGB, 201 Q-2030 ' . : Site Size (acres) , ',Less , , ' ,Greater' " ,than 1.' 1 to 2 ' 2 to 5 ,5 ,to 2020 to 50 ' than' 50", 'Total ,',' 'Buildab,le ~al'ld Im,entory . , Vacant ~. ',',' , , Industrial,' '. '., · Commerci~land Mixed Use '.' Rede"elopable . Industrial., .' ' Commercial and Mixed Use, Total Buildable Sites . Indu!)trial , . , Commercial and Mixed Use' ." Site Need:>.', .",. '. , .'Needed sites ' ' Industrial. .... . , ,'. Commercial and Mixed Use . Surplus (deficit) 'of sites ..'In,dus.trial, . "., . 'Commercial and Mixed Use . Source:ECONorth~est.': 72 24 20 ,12 0 9 128 104 14.. 6 4 0 0 ,128 122 28 31 5 1 0' 187 305 .20 15,' 0 0 ,0. 340 .194 : 52 '51 '23 1 .0. 321 409 "'34 '.21 4 6' .0 .'468 , ' f..... 7 ,13 16 4 48 53 35 14 1 0' . 323 , ' ", ' , .38 " ,'(3) ::(3) 273 189 45 '7" '.' 189 ,.(19) (14) (10) , : ',(1). 0 ,'145 'CbnVerting fr<;>Inthe site needs shown in 'TableS-.2 toallestimate oHand ,nee4s requires makillg assumptions about average site sizes needed in ' . 5prmgfield. Table 5-3 shows average site for needed sItes in: Springfield. . tabl~S~3. Average size of needed sites; Springfield' UGB . Site Size (acres) Industrial Commercial and Mixed Use Source: ECONorthwest . Less than 1 0.5 0.3 1 to 2 . 2 to 5 5 to 20 20 to 50 1.5 3.0 15.0 50.0 1.5 3.0 15.0 40.0 Greater than 50 100.0 50.0 Table S-4 shows total sites needed (from Table S-2) and total land need (based on number of sites needed in Table S-2 arid average site size in Table 5-3). The results show that Springfield has a deficit of the following land types for the 2010 to 2030 period: · Industrial land. Springfield has a need for 450 acres of industrial land on six sites. Springfield has a need for three 50 acre sites, and need for three 100 acre sites. In the context of this study, industrial uses means any major employer that would be allowed in an industrial land designation (e.g., campus industrial, light-medium industrial, light-medium industrial mixed use, heavY industrial, or special heavy industrial). Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis September 2009 ECONorthwest Page v .. . Commercial sites. Springfield has a nee~ for 261 acres of qJmmercialland ~:ri'4! sites. Sprmgfield's commercial site ,needs r~ge fro~ sites,l tCJ2acresm size to one r,ite that i~ 40 a~res in s~e.," '~;," . > ' ~ ' , ' j' '., ' ' " > , - , ~al?leS4.)~~tal ~niployrrient ~i,~e and I'c:lnd'n~eds, Spr.ingfield'UGB,2010~20~O: : ' ' , '" ,',:, ,Site Size (acres) , , ' , :', Less G re~t~r ' , ' " , " ,than 1 1to 2' 2 to 5 ' 5 to 20 20 to 50 than 50' , Total Industrial Sites needed "'" , Land need (acres) " , ,C()mmercial,and Mixed Use , Sites' needed, ' ' .' ,'Land need (acres) " , Totals,itesneeded' '. ".Total ades needed " Source: ECONorthwest, , " " , ,'.,' ' " ',' . Note: TableS4 shows toial site arid land needs for the 201 0~2030 per'iqd, " none' none none I)one none ,none none 19 14 none ',;: 29, 42, " none 19 14 none' 29 42 none, , none 3 150 3 '300, 6 450 . ,10 .150 " 10 150 1 40 , .,4 , , "1'90 o "0 3'" . 300,': 44 261,; , ,~O ,',711 . :., rhesumn:laty of land needsmTable 5-4 sho~~ Springfieldt s landn~ed fo'r ' all sites cif all sizes. One of the City's econormc development strategi~s is , to ~nc()urage redevelopment,especiallym [)o~ntowI).and Glenwoocl.' , , , Spri?gfield concludes tha~ 187 indu,sti'ial sites and 340 commercial and ' mixed-use siteswould redevelop to (iddress land needs over the20-year ',period. In addition to this assumption about redevelopment, SpriI}gfield assumes that all land needs on sites smaller than five acres would be accommodated through redevelopment. The City had, a deficit of 23 commercial and mixed use sites smaller than five acres, which would require 71 acres of land (Table 5-4). Table S-5 shows Springfield's employment land deficiency, assuming that all site needs for sites smaller than five acres would be addressed through redevelopment. In short, Table 5-5 shows the amount of land Springfield will need to add to its UGB to accommodate forecast employment growth and site needs. Springfield has a deficiency of six industrial sites on 450 acres and eleven commercial and mixed-use sites on about 190 acres that cannot be accommodated within the existing UGB over the 2010 to 2030 period. Page vi ECONorthwest September 2009 Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis 1_':', . Table S~5. Employment site and land deficien~y, Springfield UGB, 2010-2030 ' ,. '!" 1" "\ , , Site Size (acres) , . Less . , Greater, , than~. 5 to '2920 ~o 50 ,than 59 ' ,Total I' " ,.' " > ~ " ], - ',,', , ,'", Irldus~rial, ' : , :,; ~ites needed ' 'Land need (acres) , Commercial and Mixed Use , Sites needed ,Land need (acres) Total sitesrieeded Total acres needed none none 3, ' 300 '11 190 17, 640 Source: ECONorthwest , ..' . . '. ' '.'., ' " ' . .' ,Note: Total sites and t9tal ac:res needed represent the sites and acres Spdngfield need~ to add to .its !JGR '; j none 'none, none none ' 150 none 10 1 none 150 40 none 10 . 4 none, ,150, 190 ,") 300 , ',6,' , 450 , " '" " CHARAC,TERlsrlcs OF NEEDEDS'ITES: '." . The GoCli9 AdminisfrativeR~le (dAR660~009) requires'thatjuris4ictions' " describe the characteristics.of needed sites (QAR 660-009:-0075(1)). The .;.. ,Administrative Rul~ciefines site chaiacteristics as ,follo~s ill pAR~?0-009- . . 0005(11): . , ' , (11) "Site Cl1aracteristicsH means the attributes of asIt~ ~ecessary fora' particulc,u industrial or other employment use to operate. Site. , charaCteristics include/but arenat limited to, a minimum acreage or site configuration including shape ~dtopogiaphy, visibility, specific. types or levels of public facilities, servi~es or energy infrastructure, or proximity to a particular transportation or freight facility stich as rail, marine ports and airports, mriltimodal freight or tranSshipment facilities, and major transportation routes. The site needs analysis in Chapter 4 identified site needs for five types of buildings: warehousing and distributiQn, general industrial, office, retail, and other services. The characteristics of needed sites for each of these building types are described in Chapter 5. In general, the site characteristics for commercial and industrial sites include the following: (1) Site size. The analysis concludes that Springfield will need to add land to its UGB for sites larger than five acres. Site sizes vary from five to ~O acres to greater than 50 acres. (2) Street access. These larger sites will all need to have access to major streets within Springfield, with some sites located near an interchange on 1-5. Traffic from the sites should not be routed through residential neighborhoods. Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis September 2009 ECONorthwest Page vii ,.i. ,'. I' (3) Topography. The sites shoul<;l be relatively flat, with not more than 15% slope;:with ~ites that ,are ideally less than 5% slope. ,,(4) A~cess to seryices.,city' se~lces ~hould be acces~ible t~ the site,,' , " " ,', " inCluding streefacc~ss, sapitaiysewer, angmurikip~l water. Oth,er , services 'to sites shotiIcl :inClude: electticity; plioiu~,'arid,high~speed , telecommunications. CapacitY and d~matld f9r thes'e servjces will , varyby uses dn each site>: ",' ' , '(5) Lan~ ownership. Sites witha single owner are stronglypr~ferred, , , , to reduce the cost oHandassembly. ' ' , ". "1" ,l IMPllCATIQNS , The economic opportunities amily~is hasthefollowmg uriplicationSfor' Sprihgfield'setol1omiclaria:~ee9.s. " " ' " " ' , , ' ',' ,. ' .' .. , '.' t. '. ., ,Economic growth. Decisiori' Iliakersarid conmllln,ity melllb~r~thaT.' , p'articipated ip. the econqinicopportu9ities :analysis 'agreedtha:t economic growtl1 i~ desir~bie over the pl~g period. The ' , " " enlployment forecast indicates Sprmgfield will add 13,440ne'W" " " employees between 20id ~d 2030 using the OAR 660':'024- 0040(8)(a)(ii) safe harbor methodology. The economic opportunities analysis concludes thafSpringfield will have employment growth , ill a wide variety of businesses, from services and retail for, , residents to industrial development to medical services. The City wants to diversify its economy ,and attract higher: wage arid , professional jobs. . Buildable lands, Springfield has3,415 acres currently designated for industrial and other employment use. About two-thirds of the land designated for employment within Sprmgfield's UGB is considered developed land that is not expected to redevelop over the 20 year planning period. Less than 15% of this land is buildable, unconstrained land. The majority of buildable, unconstrained employment land in Springfield has existing development on it that is expected to redevelop over the planning period. Springfield has a lack of buildable large sites, with one buildable site 20 acres and larger and 23 buildable sites in the five to 20 acre size range. . Employment that will not require vacant land. Springfield concludes that 52% of employment growth would not require vacant Page viii ECONorthwest September 2009 Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis i , lil!.,:1 [: ,I tC " ,,' employment land.' Springfield's assumptions about employment that will no't r~quire vac~t land are as follows: . :,0 ,,'Fbrifteen perceri,~6f einploYnlent (1,918 eJ?J.pl~ye~s) ~i1i' : : ' . ,locate ~ nori~enlployPie~tdesigmiti6ns'. ThesE:! ,:~,', :. :. ,'. . employees will inclllqe' p~opl~ 'with 'hoti;1e occtipa~o~i working fr(rm. home, arid bti~#i~~sesthat),6~ate.in . .' . residential or other non-employmeilt designati6ns., This Clssumption isbased on the percent of employment located in hon..:employment designations ill 2006~ See, ' Appendix C and Tahle C-7 for more inforinationabout , . : this assmIl ption~ .' . '. o .. Ten percent ofnew~mploymeht(1,344 employees) ~ill . locate in existing built space. See AppeIldiX C ~clTable : C~7 for ~'ore informationabotitthis~ssuinptiop.;., . . oTw~ntY-:s~ven p~rcent ~f ne~elllploym.erLt'(3,669' , . .eIIlploy~~s) ~illlocate ~nredevelopaP1~sit~s: Table 5.;1" . . shows that Springfieldassllmes 187 industrial sit~s arid . 340corilIrt~rci~lcind nlix~<iusesit~s willredev~lop 'over' .' the pl~gperiod. The es~ate of em,ployn,tent on '. thesesites was based onthe'(lveragenumber of employees per site by site size ill 2006. See Chapter 2 for more inforination about redev~lopment assumptions., .., Redevelopment potential. The analysis of redevelopment potential and need for employment land assumes that Springfield will have substantial redevelopment over the planning period. Consistent' , with City Council policies, the areas that are expected to have'the most redevelopment in the plan period are in Glenwood, especially along the Willametle Riverfront and FranklinjMcVay.corridor, and in the Downtown Urban Renewal District. All land deficiencies for sites smaller than five acres are expected to be addressed through redevelopment of existing sites. The majority of retailland needs are expected to be addressed through redevelopment. )' ," , . , " , The City will need to make strategic investments that support redevelopment and to continue supporting redevelopment through City plans and policies. For example, the City has established urban renewal districts in Glenwood and Downtown to help finance the public improvements necessary to support redevelopment and is , The estimate of 52% of new employment not requiring vacant land is based on the assumption that 1,918 employees will locate in non-employment designations, 1,344 employees will locate in existing built space, and 3,669 employees will locate on redevelopable sites. The total number of new employees not requiring new land is 6,931 employees, which is approximately 52% of the forecasted growth of 13,440 jobs. Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis September 2009 ECONorthwest Page ix " " , ~ II> , ' , " 'l, ," Cl 'currently conducting planning studies in both districts to update ' plans and policies. ,Redevelopment in Springfield requites a, "" " . varia;ble level of inve~t;ments m public. infrastructure to. provIde Cilld ":'. upgradep~?li~'facijities,andre~ove e'xistipg imped4ne~tSto" "," ,developn:u:~rit.'\."" ,:;",',", :". '."" ,',: ::; , " . This portion 'of employment add~~sses the OAR 660':024-0050 'requiteme~ts' th~t th~CitY' conSider "lalul use effi<:iencymeasures" 'prior to expanding the UGH, TheE9A. does not describe the . , specific policies the CitY will adopt to achieve, this level of infill and 'redevelopment. Those policies; however, will be adopted as p~lIt of ., the City' soverall UGB justific~tiOI1' . .' . ." 'Need for largesites.'SpririgfieldwID be able tOllleetemploYni~n( '. " , ~andneeds on s~tes fi\r~,acres aIld smaller within, the existingUGB, .thro~gh redevelopP'lerit, infill develoPITlent, and employment uses,' ,on n()n-~Ii1ployrrierit land (e.g., home occuPa.tions). The"..;. .' employment IClIld"needs ~at may hot be met withini:l1e UGB are' , for ~itesfive acres and larger, Th~'City currep,tlyhas' only one' buildables1te~O acr~s b!.Jarger. ' . '" , , , ' ,", " '. ' , . " ,A vailabilit)r of sites 20 acres arid larger is important for attracting or growing large businesses, which are oftentradecl-sector.businesses. H the City does not have these large sites, there is ptt1e chance that the City will attract these types of bu.sinesses. While it may not be clear exactly what the business opportunitiesIriay be in ten to twenty years, it is clear that these businesses will not locate in Springfield if land is not available for development. For example, in the past twentY years, most of the Gateway area developed. The area has a mix of uses including a regional mall, apartments, offices, and more recently, the PeaceHealth.Campus. Twenty-years ago it would have seemed highly unlikely that PeaceHealth would build their new facility in Springfield. H the City had not had desirable, serviceable land available, PeaceHealth would probably not have located their new facility in Springfield. . Short-term land supply. Based on the Goal 9 definition of short-term, land supply and criteria for" engineering feasibility," the majority of buildable land within the Springfield UGB is part of the short- term land supply, assuming that funding is available to extend services. The Goal 9 rule does not account for land availability, such as whether the landowner is willing to sell it or the owner is willing to redevelop it. The Goal 9 rule also does not account for differences in site characteristics, such as site size. As a result, developers may have difficulty finding developable land with specific site characteristics, such as large sites with highway access. Page x September 2009 Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis ECONorthwest , ',' , Chapter 1 li ~ Introduction ; , .',;:,:, , , " " ",' . ~ 1;: '," .', : :.' ; ~: l :: " ' :, ::; _ : ,': 1 " ' , ' , " , ~,> " . ., 'Tlrisreport'pr~sentsart Ec()~o~kOppor~tiesAllaly~i~ (~qi\) for th~.. 'City' of Springfield cOrlsisf~ntwithth~reqtiit~m~ntSOf statewide planning 'Goal9artd theGo(.l~ 9administnltive rule,'(OA~'660-009)'. Gqal9 describes the EOA as~' art analysis of the commurlity's economic patterns, potentialities,~ttengthsl artd.deficiencies as they relate to state and . ,national trends" artd states that "a principal determinant in planning for . . majmindustrial and commercial developments should qe.thecomparative "advarttage oithe region within which the dev~loPlllentsw()liIdbe ." . . located.'i . . . .. . " " . . ' , ~ ' .,.,'; " '. 'I "1' ' '.BACKGRo.UN'o,:,' I '," '" . In 2007,tne Or~gon Legisl~h.1re passedHQuseBill 3337 wJych d~ects ' Spririgfield .and Eugen,e to establish 'separate Urbart .Growth Boulldaries . (UGBs).Thedty started~orko~ akeyel~Inent ofitS new U<;;Bin 2006 ~:Y ,.'. initiating a residentialbuildable,lartds inventory and contra~ting . ECONor~w, estto, .conduct 'a. Goal 10 housing reeds artalysi,s. WI,.th the passage ,of lIB 3337, the City is preparing a.dditiorial studies riecessaryfor . the establishlnent of asepC!,rate UGB-including art economic, ' . opportunities artalysis (EQA), arid art economic developnientstrategy." 2. An artalysis of alternative locations where the UGB might be expanded to accommodate the city's future commercial, industrial, artd residential needs - if the City identifies a deficiency of lands. This phase is called the alternatives artalysis. This report presents the results of the economic opportunities artalysis. The economic development strategy is presented in a separate document, as is the alternatives artalysis. ECONorthwest worked closely with City staff, a Technical Advisory Committee, artd a Stakeholder Committee in preparing the Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis. This report incorporates marty comments provided by these groups. Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis September 2009 ECONorthwest Page 1 , ' FRAMEWORK FOR ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT PLANNING IN 'OREGON" 0 ' , , ',,: , " , >' " 1 _ ' > " . " , , ' ;' ~ " ~ ' ',- ,",: ,"1be :c<mtenfoftlus report is desi~edto meet fue requirements of Oregol\ ' , , , 'Statewide ,Planning Goal, 9 and th.e'admWstrative nile that inrplements., GOal 9 (OAR, 660-009).' The L~d CcinserVatioIi and Development ", ,,:,,' Commission: adopted amendm~ntS to this ;administrativerule in ' December 2005.2 The 'analys'is iri this report is designed tocohfonTI to the requiTements for an Economic Opportunities Arlalysisin OAR 660-009 as amended. " . , > ~ . '" " ':': ;. . 1. Economic Opportunities Analy~is (QAR660-009-0015). Th~ Eccmomic ' ,Oppqrturiities Artalysis(EOf\) ,requrrescommunities to~dei1tifythe, ' "majorcategories of industrifil orOth~r employment uses that could', , " re~sbnablYlJeexpected toloc~te pr ~xpana intbe' piiutning area" , bCisedoninformation, abollt h~tion~, state; regional,cotmtyorlocal '. , ,trends; idehtify the number of sites by type reasonably exp~cte'd.to be 'needed to acco~m()date prOjected eniplo,yment growth based on " thes,ite characteristicstypi,cal of exp~d~d uses; 41clude ~n',',' """ inventory 'of vacart and deve~oped lark~s within the planning area, " desigllated for industrial ,or otller einploym~nt use; and estiIDate " the types~damotints of industria.! and other e~ployment uses, ," "'likely to occur in the plcllming area. L()cal governments are also ,', encouraged to assess commurrity economic' development potential ' through a visioning or soine other: public input based process in conjunction with state agencies. '2. Industrial and commercial development policies (OAR 660-009-0020). ' Cities with a population over 2,500 are required to develop commercial and industrial development policies based on the EOA. Local comprehensive plans must state the overall objectives for economic development in the planning area and identify categories or particular types of industrial and other employment uses desired by the community. Local comprehensive plans must also include policies ,that commit the city or county to designate an adequate number of employment sites of suitable sizes, types and locations. The plan must also include policies to provide necessary public facilities and transportation facilities for the planning area. Finally, cities within a Metropolitan Planning Organization (which includes Springfield) must adopt policies that identify a competitive short- 2 The amended OAR 660-009, along with a Goal 9 Rule Fact Sheet, are available from the Oregon Department of Land Conservation and Development at http:f f WWW.oregon.gov fLCD f econdev .shtml. Page 2 September 2009 Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis ECONorthwest " " ,', .. term supply of land for desired industrial ahd o~er e:rpploY!llent uses as an e<::qnomic dev~lopment objective. ' '" ,,' . , , , ,1 ,', J " , , , " .~. , Designation of l~n~s for lndustrial dnd, qom'rrTfrdal uses (OAR 6'6Q~00~., 0025. Cities arid cc>unties mllst ad9ptmeasuresto impleine:p.t , ' 'p'qlkie~ a:dopt~d p~r$Uan(t6 QA~ 660-009~d020.Appropriate ' ' :impl~mentation measutes include amendments to plan and zone map designatiqns,land use regulations, public facility pianS, and transportation system planS. More specifically, plans must identify the approximate number, acreage and characteristics 'of sites n~eded to accommodate industrial and other erriploymentus,es to i.1:frplement plan' policies, and must designate serviceable hind ' ' suitabl~,to meet,identified site needs, '" " 'PlaIls for dties,and c~)Unties witllin a Metropolitan Planning , ' , " , Orgaillzation or ci1;ies anti cOUpties ,that adopt policies relating to , the short~term supply of land lmist desigllat~ suitablehmci ~o ' .' , re~po;nd to economic dev~lop:rnent opportUilities as they arise. ' This reportis ~n Ecori6mic OpportuI)iti~s ~alysis, the first key eleinerit ' requited by Goal 9. Thi~ EOA ffidudes an analysis of national, state, , , ' :region~,and countY trends as 'w~ll as all employmerit forecast that le~ds , to ide,ntificatioIl of Ileeded develoPlIlent sites. It also iricludes an inventory " of buildable commercial ~d industrial land in Springfield. , ' ORGANIZAflONOF THIS REPORT , The remainder of this report is organized as follows: · Chapter 2, Land Available for Industrial and Other Employment Uses presents an inventory of industrial and other employment lands. · Chapter 3, Economic Trends and Fadors Mfecting Future Economic Growth in Springfield summarizes historic economic trends that affect current and future economic conditions in Springfield. It also summarizes Springfield comparative advantages formed by the mix of factors present in Springfield · Chapter 4, Land Demand and Site Needs in Springfield presents the employment forecast for Springfield and an estimate of how much land is needed to accommodate the 20- year employment forecast. It also describes the types of sites that are needed to accommodate industries that are likely to locate or expand in Springfield. Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis September 2009 ECONorthwest Page 3 ~' . Chapter 5, Implications presents a comparison of land supply and site needs and discusses the implications of the Economic .opp~rtunities ~aiysis." .". ' ." " " . ' 'I _." ,i _,' , ,! . , 'i1;Usrepor,t 9-1so iI1~hi~es t:lu:ee app'endic~s: ' , . . , . . AppendiX A, R~view of ~ationai, State, Regional, County ,and . Local Trends describes national, state, and local economic :. trends that will iilfluence the regional economy. Appendix A . presents detailed information about economic trends that may affect Springfiel?, whi<;:h is,summaiized in Chapter 3. . ': , . , . . Appendix BiFactors Affecting Future Economic Growth in . Sptingfielq'di~cusses the 'cOIllparatiye a:dvcmtage~ formed hy the mix of factors present in Springfield. Springfield's' . , ", .:' cbmparative advantages aresumm~riz~dln Chapter 3. ' . . ., ':Appendix C,'ED1ploy~eJ:lt Fore~astand SiteNeedsf~i.' , Industrial alui OtlIer Employment Uses presents an , '. '. '. employment forecast arid analysis of needed sites' foi . '. ....'.. . Springfield, for' th~ period, 2010':'2030, and is ,srlmmariiedin 'Chapter 4. .,'. ,,' , ' .' " . ..", . Page 4 ECONorthwest September 2009 Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis I 'I' I. ~ . )1, ;'1 I) ,I" Iii II' . ' ~ . ,Chapter 2: land AV,~ilable for Industri'al and OthetEhi'ploymerlt Uses: , " " ~ ! , 1 " f' " ,,' " ., '-', ' " , , :The Sp~ingfield Commercial and Inaustri~IB~ildable Lands (CIBL) :", . . inventory is intended to identify lands w~thin the'Springfield urban . Growth BoUndary (UGB) that are suitable for development and can accommodate employment gro':Vth. BUildable Jands inventories are s()metimes characterized as sufrplyof land to accommodate growth. Population and employment growth drive demand for land. The aIIlount of . land needed 'depends,inpart, on the denSity ot develoIHnent as well as. "assumptioIlSapoufr~aevelop:inentandinfiIL', ",., , '. '.' , '.' ~ ." . .' " , " " . . ' ' "", this chapter presents theCIBL irrventoryfor fheCityof Springfield. The' '. , results are based on analysis of Geographic Informa'ti,on'Systein data ., . provided by ~e City of Springfield Publi~Works Departnl~htand the .~ane CounCil ofGovernments.Thebuilciable landinventory also useq " . ~erial orthophotogt'aphsan~ review by city staff for verification. "'The buildabl~ iand~ inventory inCludeshmds east of the Interstate 5 center line in the Metro UGB. For the purpose of the iriventory, these lands were '. conSidered to be'in ~e Springfield portion of the UGB.3 . ECO worked closely with City Staff, a Technical Advisory Co~mittee, and., a Stakeholder Committee during .the development and review of the 'Springfield commercial and industrial buildable lands inventory (CIBL). ECO developed the inventory using the following steps: · Assemble and document datasets. ECO identified data from the . Regional Land Information Database (RLID) and GIS data from the City of Springfield and the Lane CoUncil of Governments as primary datasets on which the inventory and analysis was built. RLID includes assessment and taxation data maintained by Lane County. · Preliminary analysis. ECO conducted a preliminary analysis with the GIS and data tables selected for inclusion in the database. The purpose of this task was to work with City staff and the T AC to 3 Springfield did not have a separate UGB at the time this study was completed. This study is intended to meet part of the requirements of H.B. 3337 which will lead to the establishment of a UGB for the City of Springfield independent of the Eugene-Springfield Metropolitan UGH. Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis September 2009 ECONorthwest Page 5 " r " I .' determine the optimal definitions and supporting methodology to base the final analysis and database structur~. ' . " ' ';,' ".1 , , ,J . :batirprocessing and GJSdhalysis, Intli1sstep ,ECO p~rforIDed the GIS, ,anaiysisaIid,'dat~,pro'c~ss,~gste'ps n~ce~sary.~o poppi~i:e th~ ":, ,:' ,,' ~ d(;ltcibase:Table 2"'1 shows plan designations that were includ,ed, in ': ' the co~me'r:~ial and industrial buildable l~d~ iii.vent~ry. 'All oftlle designations induded in ,the inventory allow employment outright. ' The inventory,lwwever, mclude~ several mixed use designations ' that allow both employment and housmg.The invent~ry generally "uses the 2004 Metro Plfill de~ignatioIlS with two ,exceptions: (1) ,,' " Glenwood, wh~rea?005 plan amendment changed the, designatio~ " onapproxinlately47acre~frOrn Light Mediuin Industrial Mixed', .' Uset() NiixedUse;anci(2) the PeaceH~alth sib~wh~re hmdwas rede,sigIloated f~om residenti:al to desIgnations that allow " etpployil1ent. · Table 2-1. Metroplal1 designations included in the Springfield ," ,', 'c()rTIm~r~ialandindustrial buildable 'Ia~ds irweritory' " ,,' ,,' ',: '" ,. Allowed Land Uses (yes/no) , ,'" Plan Designation Commercial 'InduStrial' 'Residential 'In Clli~L? 'Camptjs industrial yes , yes , no, ' 'yes ,Commercia,1 ,,", ' yes no no', yes ,Commercial Mixed Use yes no, ' yes, ' yes Heavy Industrial no yes no yes ", High Density Hes Mixed Use yes no " yes yes Light Medium Industrial no yes no yes Light Medium Industrial Mixed Use no yes no ' yes Major Retail Center yes, no no yes Medium Density Res Mixed Use yes no yes yes Mixed Use yes yes yes yes Special Heavy Industrial no yes no yes Note: Allowed land uses indicates what uses are allowed in each plan designation. The CIBL includes any plan designation that allows employment, including mixed use designations. 'I'"~ . Verification. ECO used a multi-step verification process. The initial verification occurred as part of the preliminary analysis. This step included a staff-level review of preliminary database output (maps) showing the land base and plan designations. The second round of verification involved a II rapid visual assessment" of land classifications using GIS and recent aerial photos for this analysis. The rapid visual assessment involved reviewing classifications overlaid on 2005 aerial photographs to verify uses on the ground. ECO reviewed all tax lots included in the inventory using the rapid Page 6 ECONorthwest September 2009 Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis Iii: 1:11, " , ' visual assessment methadolagy. The third raund .of verific;atian' invalved city ,staff verifYing the rapid visual assessment .output. , " . , : : The' draft inventory was ,then c~culated far review by the ), AC an,d , , . the Stakeholder C6~mlttee. This review result~_dm: a nUmper of ,: ":, :'. 'changd':~lrich are refle~ted'iii, the inventory l;l;~p~~s~nted'in this ,rep',a,'rt,: ' ';' -:.', ,'.' .::,. " "":,",,<, ',;':' , ,,' i-, ~. , In summary/Eta u~ed a systematic pracess to' camplete the CIBL , . inventary that was intended ta provide the greatest d~gree ,.of accuracy passible." . " ,. ',., DEFINITIONS Thefir~tstep in'th~ buildablefuv~ntaIy wasta dev~ldp workIng defInitions andaSSllinptians.. ECo' initially classified, iarici tishtg a rule- . . ., ,;,' " ' ." . . ' .,', . " , '>. " . . ' " - ",' ':. " \ . ~. . , '.' b~sed methadal,agy~ The, rulesapplie<i by ECa tadassify land are ,ciescribedbelaw. 'fl1.e acc6Iripanying ~aps shaw the results c{ the . . 'application oftha~e rules, with SOme adjustmentS madebas~d .on review of 2004 a~rial phata~ and buildmgpermit data.: ..,. . , Eea began the bUildable lands analYSIS with a tax lot database pravided . . by the Cityi s GIS Stiff. The inventaryusedtax19tS asthe umt .of an,alysis because (1) itis a<:a~arily accepted tmitf6rland inventaries, and (2) tax .' lotS link dIrectly t6ather data sets (e.g:,assessmentdata; addresses, etc.) , The tax lat database was curreritas .of February 2008. The inventary builds from the tax lat-Ievel databa15e ta estimatesaf'buildpble land by plan designatian. ' . A key step in the buildable lands anaiysis was ta classify each tax lat inta a set .of mutually exclusive categaries. Cansistent with accepted methads far buildable lands inventaries and applicable administrative rules, all tax lats in the UGB are classified inta .one .of the fallawing categaries: . Vacant land. Tax lats that have na structures .or have buildings with very little value. Far the purpase .of this inventary, lands with improvement values under $10,0004 are cansidered, vacant (not including lands that are identified as having mabile hames). 5 4 Improvement values were from 2008 Lane County Assessment and Taxation data and reflect the County's estimate of the market value of improvements. 5 Note that this definition is more inclusive than what statewide planning policy requires. OAR 600-009-0005(14) provides the following definition: "Vacant Land" means a lot or parcel: (a) Equal to or larger than one half-acre not currently containing permanent buildings or improvements; or (b) Equal to or larger than five acres where less than one half-acre is occupied by permanent buildings or improvements. The implication of using a more inclusive definition are that more land was considered available in the inventory than would be if the state definitions were used. Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis September 2009 ECONorthwest Page 7 'liT :!I , , Developed land. L'u,l';l that is developed at de,nsities consistent with current zoningjplan'designation and improvements that make it unlikely tq redevelop:duiipg the qnalysis perio~. Lands not ' , " classified 'as' vacant, :pot~ntiaIiy, r~deye~oPClbie, or public are' " '~9~i~ereddeveloped.6 Th\1S'~ the' ctef4titiori of. deyel~ped tand u~ed : ' for"the,CIBLis'differenf(e:g., more inclusive) than the'defiTIitionm' , the ad~inistTative rule. For purposes of theCIBL; dev'el()ped land is corisidered commItted during the 20"year 'period arid unavailable :,' , , for redevelopment. ' ' e " " .", , Lands in public owIlershipwere generally considered unavailable for development unless identlfie<;l by City staffasbeing available, ,ford~velcipmentat sometime durmg the 20Nea! plannmgperiod. This inducies uses such as ~lectikal svbstations, parl<S, and private " , cetriet~iies. Lands inFed~r~i,State"County! or cjityoWn~~slUP , were also cbrisideredc()~itted; ';. " '" , " ePotentiallyRedevelopable land. Lfu)d oriwluclldeve19pmenthas', " already occurred but on which,'duetopre~entor expe<;:tedmarket ,'" forces, there exists the' p~te~ti~l tJ1ateXistirtgdevelop~~nt\Villb~ " " , , converted bJ more intensive use~ during the' planning period. , , Rede~elqpable land is a subset of dev~loped, land and was" , identified using improvementto land value ratiosandbu~dfug coverage ratios. For the purpose of the CIBL, potentially " redevelopable land corresponds with the definition Qf ~' developed land/'. as stated in OAR 660-009~0005(1). Redevelopment potential is , discussed in more detail later in this chapter. The land classifications result in identification of lands that are vacant or potentially redevelopable. The inventory includes all lands within the Springfield UGB. Map 2-1 shows lands by plan designation within the Springfield UGB. 6 Note that OAR 660-009-0005(1) uses the following definition: (1) "Developed Land" means non-vacant land that is likely to be redeveloped during the planning period. This study defines developed land as developed and defines land "likely to be redeveloped" as potentially redevelopable. Page 8 ECONorthwest September 2009 Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis --Il'.l.a l'-~-T Commercial and Industrial Plan Designations City of Springfield Oregon Legend D City Limits D Urban Growth Boundary Tax Lots Plan Designation " . , , , m campus Induktri~I' .D""commerCial :0 CommerciaLMixedUse '. .. HeavY,ln'dustrial LIGHT MED IND MIXED USE: Light Medium Industrial'" ,.. 'ji.,\".:..' 'Ii ',..,. ,-"." . Major Retail Center, " . " .,._,spe:i~'1 He~vYlrldustfi~1' " ..' _,Mi~,~d..U~e' ' D Medi~m 'Density Re~icle.Qtiai Mi?<edJ.Jse \ ", . ~ ~~,~, ~~, '. 30Tft,' ".',..' , " '. ',. -,,---...--..:- " ',' :f)' '." . " 'Q' , . , 01' i " Note: P~aceHeath plan amendments ~re not reflected in the pl~n , designations shown on this map. ~hePeaceHealth Campus is considered part of the commercial and industrial land base, " ", :- ~ " ,:',' ~ - ,-: ' , : '\i< , < < I .'~ '\, '\, ". \ ,< "'::-I.. ~~'t <(~,/ '\ ;<-. t PL i! . , ~< 4.~OO~ ECONorthwest, October 2008 ~ CONSTRAINTS , , Cpnstr~mtS ~re factors that precludeJand d~veloPIfleht or, affect the , desirabilitY of land for: devel6pment: OAR 660-009~0005(2)Ptovidesth,e'., "foJl~w4tg' de~tio~ of 'I qeyelop~~1itc()pstraints:" '. .:' " ',',", ':,'. : ' " : 'I 1_ " ' ';" ,'" ',,',: - . ,'," '''D~velopI1ient C~ns'tramt~~' mearu, factors that temporadiy or , ,'permanently limit or prevent the use of land for economiC, , development. Development constraintsinclucle, but are not ' liJ:hitedto, wetlands, environrrlentally sensitive areas such as ' " , habitat, environmental contamination, slope, topography,cultural and archeologIcal resources, infrastructure deficiencies, parcel ' , fragD;lentcitionlor natural hazard areas: " ' Thus, th~ AdffimistnitiveRrue provtdes abroad definitiqnqf coilstniints , " cln<i leaves 'discretion forl()cal goverrunerits,in'the application of the ' ,''definitioll:ForthePllI'Poseofthis's,tudy~ the followiIlgfactorsare, " : ' , 'corisider~d absolute developtpent constraints~hich makeemploytnent' , laridunsuitable for ,develoPITlerit: ' , , . ",.. ' . J'.,.", _ , , ,. ,",. ,.,' '., 1., WetI(illds " 2. 3. ,Floo?~ay" ",., Slopes over 15 ~ , 4. Riparian nisource areas ", ' " , , ' " The following factors are partial development constraints. Land 'Yith these constraints is classified' as "constrained" on employment land. Development can occur on" constrained" land and no deductions were 'made from ,the inventory for these factors. · Floodplain · Willamette River Greenway . BP A Easements The inventory summary that follows addresses "absolute" and "partial" constraints separately and summarizes lands as either" unbuildable acres" (e.g., no development may occur) or "constrained acres" (e.g., one or more constraints are present but those constraints do not preclude development). Portions of individual tax lots can be in one or more of the following categories: "unconstrained," "constrained," or "unbuildable" (e.g., they are not suitable for development). Page 10 ECONorthwest September 2009 Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis C' ' Ii RESULTS' LANOBASE" , ,,> , ' The'fustsfep in,theCn~~ iI:tveritory,wCl~ tq deterll1.fue,~e)and, b~se. This step was necessary because t;hemventbrYori1y',C~vets a subset of hlrid in the Springfield UGH (lqllds tlmt accoIIliilddateeinployment). Tl1e land , base is the subset of tax lots that fall withlii. the plan designatioru; included in the CIBL (see Table 2-1). , ' ' " , . - . , .' ' Table 2.,2, sh?ws acres within the Springfield UGB and city limits in ~008. "', According to the City 'GIS data~ Sp~gfield has about 14,603 acres wit:ltiJ;1 , itsUGB. Of the 14,603 acres, 12,139 acres (about83%) are in taxlots.'~an~ , pot ill tax lots is primarily ,in streets and waterways.SP!mgfie~cl has a.bbrit ' 9,958 acres within its CityLiInitS;Qf these,8~060 acres(about81% of total ' " acres ~ ,the 'City LiInit) areintaxl~ts.Additionally,theC:ity has ab~tit, '4,645 acres between th,e CityLimi~ aIld Urb~ Growth Boundary (the' , " . PGi\); of thisab?ut 4,07Q(icres,are in tax lois. '; , Table ,2-2. Acres in Sprlngfield!JGB and " ~ityLimit, 20~8, " , ",' Percent Total Acres in in,Tax Area Tax Lots ' , Acres Tax Lots Lots, City Limits 19,477 9,958 8,060 81% Urban Growth Area 3,150 '4,645 4,079 88% Total 22,627, 14,603 , 12,139 83% Source: City of Springfield GIS dat!i; analysis by ECONorlhwest , Note: Urban Growth Area is the unincorporated area between the City Limits and Urban Growth Boundary Table 2-2 summarizes all land in the Springfield UGB. The next step was to identify the commercial and industrialland base (e.g., lands with plan designations that allow employment or "employment hinds"). The land base includes traditional commercial and industrial designations, as well as mixed-use designations. Table 2- i provides a list of plan designations included in the land base. Note that not all of the land in mixed-use designations will be used for employment. Table 2-3 shows that about 3,415 acres within the Springfield UGB are included in the commercial and industrial land base. Thus, about 28% of land within the Springfield UGB is included in the Commercial and Industrial land base. The database includes all land in tax lots that have any portion that is in a commercial or industrial plan designation. Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis September 2009 ECONorthwest Page 11 .. -"! ,~, ,. I' ' :: I il" I~' ,I Table 2-3. lands designated for commercial and industrial uses, ~pringfield UGB, 2008 .' , ' :',' Are'a . ',Value, ;. .-' , . . Spiipgfleld UGB , : N~mbef :6fT~~ L~ts . ,," ,: ;, >' ; ";' "",,', . Ac~es:in Tax 'Lots '. ' 22,627, ...' 12,139 , : I'", " , , , ' <, Springfi,eld CIBL ' ,: . " Tax Lots in Employment Designations " . 2,104 Acres in Land Bas'€! in EmploymentDesignations . 3,415 Source: analysis by ECONorthw~st '. ;'I:able2-4 summarizes ~cre~byplanq.esigtlati6rtforemploymentlands '. . ',.witlliritheSpriIlgfie'Idl!GB. Of landsde'sign:~te<if()r emF'loyrrient~about: .' ' ' .65% (2!203 ac~es)are in industrial Clesignations~21 % (71(J act:es) ~ie~ " <:ommerdal designations, and 14 % (495~cr~s) ar~ in m1Xed~se . . '. . desigruitions~ Ncitall,of the.lan.d in mixed ~sedesignatioIls :will be used . ~or e~ploymeht"'::'housirig isa k~y'~lement of mixed-use 'deslgnatio:qs~" ., , , T~ble2-4.'A~res by employment plan designation, Springfie~d UGB, 2008" .. . . , . Total Acres Tax Lots in Tax Lots Plan Designation. Industrial Campus Industrial Light Mediumlridustrial . Heavy Industrial Special Heavy Industrial Subtotal Commercial Commercial Com munity Com mercial Major Retail Center Subtotal Mixed Use Commercial Mixed Use 430 Light Medium Industrial Mixed Use 19 Medium Density Res Mixed 64 Mixed Use' 64 Subtotal 577 Total 2,104 Source: City of Springfield GIS data; analysis by ECONorthwest Note: Totals may be off by up to one acre due to rounding errors. 43 375 250 5' 673 352 541 1,163 147 2,203 731 4 119 854 570 30 116 716 222 116 34 123 495 3,415 Table 2-5 shows acres by classification and constraint status for the Springfield UGB in 2008. Analysis by constraint status (the table columns) shows that about 2,040 acres are classified as built or committed (e.g., unavailable for development), 543 were classified as vacant. Not all Page 12 Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis ECONorthwest September 2009 ------------------ 'I '!I:':II' il 'I ----------- " .. vacant lands are available for development- the inventory identified 189 unbuildable acres on vacant tax lots, leaving 355 acres of vacant, Suitable 'land. ":1 , , , The inventory ~d~ntified 669 acre,s that are poterltially recU:velopa~le bf!lsed , ,on the criteria described in the definitions section. All of these lands have existing improvements; but the v'alue or character of the hnprovements ' suggests redevelopment potential. Of lands with redevelopment potential, 88 acres cue 'unbuildable and the remainir1.g 581 acres are buildable (e.g., they have redevelopment potential). ,- -., , , . . , ' . . . . , Table 2-5. Acres by classification, Springfield UGB, 2008 SunableLand , , ' Acres in Tax Developed, UnbuildableConstrai~ed unc,ori'strain~d Classification Tax Lots' Lots Acres' Acres ',' ACres Acres , , Developed ' 1,295' ,2,039", 1,710 " 329 , Master Plan ,18 163 0 2 Potentially Redevelopable 535 669 na ; 88, Vaca:nt" ,256 543 0 189 Total 2,104 3,415 1,710 608 ,Source: City of Springfield data; analysis by ECONorthwest 'I, Note: Total~ m~y be off by up toone acre due to roundin'g errors" ' o ',161 544 ' 279 985 Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis September 2009 ECONorthwest Page 13 1/,,) tf ) ll'.a l' "-- "- Commercial and Industrial Land by Classification and Nodal Overlay Status City of Springfield Oregon Legend CJ City Limits D Urban Growth Boundary Tax Lots Classificati on _ Developed _ PotentiallyRede~elopable _ Vaca~t':' . , ,Master Planned ~, No~al Develo'pmentOverlay , ", . ' ,;.,',l '1; . , '(. : Npte: MCisterplanriecj category include~ sites ,with ' approved'master plans. 'Peac~Healtn ,and , , ' Marcola Me~dows a~e included in ~his classification: ' \. ' ~, '-":'~H '- ':' '-- , Lj\ ;;..1 Zj 81 " .~. 't' .' , ,', ,"<< , ,< .' . ~ .'.". :",i , , .' .' " ~ .'., , ".. ,'I' " , . ,.' / ~} " ' '~, ':\ -"-, ~ ~'?- ~.{t-7/\ i \, " "; , ,;{>. ,:.. " . , ~ < ! ',< " -' ~ < . '/ , N, _A VACANT SUITABLE LANO The ne~t stepin the l~d inv~I).tory is to net out pbrtions of vacant tax lots , ' 1;hat are i-IDavailable for development.' AreaS unavailable for development' , ':, ':fall :intotw~:ca'tego~ies; (1) dev~lop'edare~s pf parti~lly v~cant fa?, lo~, , :'::"and (2) areas\vith physkal'constraintS(in'this instanc'e areas with steep, 'slopes~ wat~rway buffers, or wetlands). : ' " , " ' : Table2-6 shows vacantland byde~elopment and constr'aint status. Th~ , data show that about 18.~ acres within vacant tax lots have development c;onstraints that are Unsuitable, leaving about 355 vacant suit~ble acres , within Ute UGB. About 88 acres of redevelopable land has development . cOnStraibts. tfuit ar~ unbtiildat>le; leaving abo~t 581 sUltablered~velopable' , , acres within: the UGB. " , Classification 'Pote~tially Redevelopable' ' , Vacant Total ' , ' '" Acres in Tax Developed ,Unbuildable , Tax Lots. 'Lots ,ACres ' AcreS 669 543 1,212 na '0 '1,710 , 88 189 , Xl7 , 37 76 112 ,544, 279 823 'Source: City of Springfield GIS data; analysis by ECONorthwest Note: T<?tals may be off byup to one 'acre due to rounding errors, , " . , , Table 2-7 shows vacant land by plan designation. M~p 2-3 shows the location of vacant land by plan designation. Map 2-4 shows vacant land with absolute constraints that are unbuildable and Map 2-5 shows vacant' land with constraints. ' ' Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis September 2009 ECONorthwest Page 15 Table: 2-7. Vacant land by Plan Desigmition, Springfield UGB, 2008 Tax lots Suitable land Acres in, Unbuildable Constrained Uncons~ained' Tax lots Acres Acres, Acres Plan Design'ation ' W~CANT, lAND , ,hldlistriai , , ' Campus Industrial Light Medium Industrial Heavyl ndustrial SpeCial Heavy Industrial Subtotal Commercial COmmlilrc.ial , Com'munityCommeidai " ,Major Retail Center Subtotal ~ixe~ l)se, " " ~omrT1ercial, Mixed Use'" ' Light Mediunil~dustrial Mixed, Use Medium Density Res ~iXed' ,: ,7 ' , Mixed ,Use' , ' , 12 , Subtotal' ,,', ' , 46 Totell ' 245 Source: City 6fSpringfielct GISdata;,analysls by ECONorihwest Note:.Totals may be off by lip to' one acre due to rouncting e,rr:ors:,' ,,14, " ~5 48 1 128 ,71 ' 11 71 , 27 ,{"131 124 133 48 , 435 51 6 57 28, ' 2 21 51 543 77 40 '14 33 17 74 32 3 98 39 1 8 181 61 194 3 3 4$ " ,0 0' 5 ,3 3 51," 2 2,' 24 " " Q 1 1 3 ,9 9 5 11 34 , 189 76 '279 Page 16 September 2009 ' ECONorthwest Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis u_ tf/ ~ ,) /" / - , ---....- - - Vacant Commercial and Industrial Land and Development Constraints City of Springfield Oregon Legend D City Limits D Urban Growth Boundary Tax Lots 'Plan DesiglJation ~ Campus Industrial D Commercial' D CommercIal Mixed Wse " _ Heavy Industrial . _ LIgHT MED iNp MIXED USE Light Mediurp,I:lJd~strial' 'rvlajorRetafl Ceht~.r' . El M'ediury1Derisity R~~Mix~' . ,'. Mi?<ed U~E3 " '. ...' . __. Sp~Ci~1 t-ie~\;Ylndustricid . . '.' " N6te,:"'Dc>E~S not in~cfude .ma~ter p!anned sit~s' '\ " , " . '--'-~H \~~)" )... ,2 .', &" ; ,: , " ---~\ ~, 2!' zl; ~' .. ~i , '. t " . . \ , < -: " ";,"" \ \^. \;. '"",.l. < ~~ L ~~/\ <('?'( \ ~ '. .': ,", .. ~ ,:~ " 0'" < L~ ,- i' , !;CONnrn".,,,,,,t Julv :700g N A >:' ":to ' / ./ (,1 ft) \ I ""- '\.. , t-- r.1 .~~.------ ,/ ----- .//"" /;' , // /' / / ,/ ). ," , /~~-~~/j/ "~;::~'~".-:f_~~::;-;-~':-'\ t' ....., , #-'i:...-J ~"'~-~-"'-l#'~ .....---J \ ',----~<.." (,/1, \S /oj' "', '\\ ,II ~~ l-r::-----!-'"""-."1.. o ,/' "'-.---~\.. r--'\ \" \. ........ ..-J'/ "..i .J \. 'I --- ,-.....- ........ \.... -~""'-'--...... "-,,,-- \-\~:~ . ""\, '-~~----~--,<: .......-', ....._~ ,~ , r--- , ':~~---:;:::-.--"";-'- - --'---------- ~\\"- ' ~ <~,:~~~. " -...;:-:~, : Map 2-4 Vacant Commercial and Industrial Land and Prohibitive Development Constraints City of Springfield Oregon Legend D City Limits D Urban Growth Boundary . Tax Lots Plan Designation ~. Campus Industrial D Commercial D Commercial ~ixed Use :' _' Heavy Industrial, : .' .' "_LiG~TMEDIND MIXED USE,. i , ' , ,. . . :~ight Medium Indu'strial , " 'Major' Retail Ce,nter;.., ,", '. "0 Medi~n1 DensitYR~S Mix~d'. II1II '. Mi~~d:use" , _ ~p~piai Heavy l.nd~strial " Prohibitive Development'Co'nstraints ~ Slopes over 1'5% ' ~'YVeUands " CJ, Ripa~ian Resource Arec:i~ ", ::, :', 'i ,', [==J FI6~dway.' :: ':' :, ',<. > , : ',,' " , ,<.' <" ~ , < ,.' < ".' , Not~: Prohibitive develop~ent ~bn straint~ ~re C;;;nstraints that prohibit development Lands that have one or more prohibitive constraint are removed from acr!'lages counted as buildable. ' N ~ ~ Vacant Commercial and Industrial Land and Development Constraints City of Springfield Oregon Legend D City Limits D Urban Growth Boundary Tax Lots Plan Designation ~ Campus Industrial D Commercial " D Commercial Mixed Use _ Heavy Ind~striar ' ,_ LIGHT MS[) INO M'IXEP USE Light~~diufn. Illdusfrial Majqr Retail Center ~" r:-I" ,".,',. ~ ,.. - " Mediun;1Density Res Mixed ..' I,,' .'~' _:, "', "'. '''::.,''_' ,. :;:. . -','." " ;,' Mixed Use'\ ,SpecicdHeavy Inqustrlal , DevelopmentGonstraints , ~m Willam~tte River Greerwvay _ '1 Oq-year Floodplain HT/J SPA Easements ,:";'.1;~~i *:', '_ ,.' <^, t- ,", .' . < .,0.' Note: Developmlilntpo'nstraints sh~~n on this m'a~ do ~ot presl,yde de~el?pment. These constraints may add complexity , to l'!ind use review or potentially reduce development density, , Thes; ar,eas,are counted a~ ~~n~trained, but buildable, .,,"'r N .. Table 2-8 shows vacant lc;md by plan designatio~ and by parcel size.~ This analysis is useful in that ~t shows the distribution of vacant l(illd by,parcel size, which allows an evaluation o{whether ,a sufficient mix of parcel' sizes is ~Vai1able: Th~ distribution of bUil,dal;~e, lan,d by p~~~lsize ~~ries ~y: . ' plan designC).p,on, with the r~sults showing the,Cityhasnbvacanttax l<;lts ' 20 ~l(:res ai-larger. ": " . . Table 2~8. Suitable ac.resin vacant taxl~ts by plan designation and parcel size,' Springfield UG~,,2008' . <0.25 0,2 3:5 1,0 0,0, ,4.7 ,4.4 :0,5 ' 0,5 , 2.2 11.9 0.25- 0.49, 0,3 , 5,2 2,~ , 0,0' 7.9, 0.7 5.0 1,2 0,6, 0,3 2.2 17.9 ,1 19 ' 8 o 28 29 4 33 12 , 0.50- 0.99 Lot Size (Suitable Acres) 1.00- 2.00-" 5.00~ 1.99 4.99 , 9.99 .' 0,0 ' : " 9.7 , 8.8 0,0, 18.5" , 6.4, 10,8 4,7 15,3 14,7 0,0 34.6, 0,0 4,9 10.3 54.1 ,0 12 12 o 24 16 2 18 3 1 o 4 46 7 The table shows total acres in vacant tax lots (constraints are not netted out) Plan Designation Total Acres Industrial Campus Industrial Light Mediu'm I~dustrial Heavy Industrial Special HeaVy I (ldustrial ' "Subtotal' " , , Commercial Conimercial' , : Community Commercial Major Retail Center 'Subtotal' Mixed Use ", Commercial Mixed Use , Light'Medium Industrial Mixed Use Medium Density Res Mixed Mixed Use , Subtotal Total Number of Tax Lots Industrial Campus Industrial Light Medium Industrial HeavY Industrial Special Heavy Industrial Subtotal Commercial Commercial Community Commercial Major Retail Center Subtotal Mixed Use Commercial Mixed Use Light Medium Industrial Mixed Use Medium Density Res Mixed 4 2 Mixed Use 4 1 Subtotal 20 8 ~~ ~ 49 Source: City of Springfield GIS data: analysis by ECONorthwest Note: Buildable acres includes "constrained" acres and "unconstrained" acres Note: Acres may not sum to tenths due to rounding errors, 1.4 ' 7.8 ' , ,1,.8 12.6 ,18,6 20,7 ' 29,3 0,0 68.6 7,5, 1,7 9.3 0',0 ',6.5 19,7 6,1 ',19.0 ,,9.1 , " 53.9 6,5 13,.0 10.00- 20.00- " 19.99 ' , 50.00 ,10,8 .' ~o,o , 25,8 ,0,0 66.6, :'0,0 :0,0 '0.0 8,5 , 0,0 0,0, , 0,0 ,0,0 ,0,0 0.0 , 0,0 0,0 0.0 0.0 1 2 2' o 5 o o o o o o o 5 '50+ Total '0,0 54,3 0;0 " '90,5 0,0 101:0 0,0, 9,1 0.0 254.8 0,0 . 0,0' 48,6 1,,3 , 1,9 !?.4 , 7.6 :' 0,0 " 13,0 0,0 5,2 ,13.6 80.5 ,5 7 8 o 20 2 o 2 2 o 2 4 26 0,0 0,0 0.0, 66.6 3 1 2 1 7 2 o 2 o 1 2 11 Q,Q 0.0 "0,0 5,6, ' ,0.0 54.1 ,0,6 0,0 ' 2.5 33.6 ' 1 13 6 o 20 17 4 21 5 0,0, 7,2 ,14.8 : 89.9 3 11 10 o 24 5 1 6 4 o 4 8 38 0,0 0,0 25,9 0,0 1,7 0,0 18.0 0.0 45.6 0.0 354.5 o o o o o o 14 o 65' o 48 o 1 o 128 o o 71 o o o 11 o 82 o o 27 o o o o o 7 o 12 o 46 o 256 Page 20 ECONorthwest September 2009 Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis REDEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL ::Redevelopmen~ p:otential addresses land that is classified as developed that may redev~~op dur~g 1;J:1e 'plaimjTIg period. Whilema:r.y plethods' eXIst'to identify redevelopment potential, a 'co:rp.nlon ihdicator is , , ' improvement to land value'~atio. Different studies use different, ' inlprove~ent to land ~~luei~tio thresholds. . . , " ,,' Redevelopment potential can be thought of as a continuum - horn more redevelopment potential to less redevelopment potential. The factors that ' 'affect redevelopment arecolllplicated and include location, surrounding uses, current use, land and improvement values and other faCtors. To .facilitate a discussion with the Sfuk,eholder Committee abo'ul, , .'red,eveloPlllent, we established as~t of~eeincr'easingly inchl~i~e 'criteda. ' , ' · ' , ' " ," , "T o Identify lands, With r'ed~velopmerit p~tential, Ec:O analyzed', , " ,inlprovement tolqnd v'alue,rafjos arid bUilding covera.ge'on tax lots~ Tax' ,lotSwere cias~ified using tl1efoiIo~ing criteria: , " , " Category , : ' ' , Criteria' Higher Re.development Potential Im'provement to land value ratio <=,0.3:1.0." Moderate Redevelopment Potential Building coverage <10% of total lot' area' , ' , , and improvement value ,<=0.3: 1:0 Lower Redevelopment Potent,al Building coverage <20% of total lot area and improvement value >=0.3:1.0 and <=0.5:1.0 , The criteria above were used in combination with employment data to , identify a reasonable threshold assumption to use for redevelopment. , Table 2-9 shows the results of applying the criteria above. To better understand the implications on pre-existing employment, ECO associated the number of employees associated with each category. The results show a distribution that suggests lands in the higher and moderate categories account for a relatively small percentage of total employment in Springfield (about 3.5%). The lower potential category includes 19% of the city's employment. Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis September 2009 ECONorthwest Page 21 " II! Table 2-9. Tax lots by Redevelopment Potential categori~s .Total Acres' '. , ~52 304 ,947 1,603 Uncor:'lstrained : 0% 'of Land Acres ' Base , 352 " 1P% " , , , ,'," , 236 9% ' 947 28% 1 :535 47% Employ- ment (2006) 478 \' ., 833 . 7;107 8,418 Category " ; H!ghe~ Poten,~al Moderate Potential .,' , j Lower Potential totai Sotirc~: City ofSpririgfield GIS data; analysis by ECONorthwest . . . Note: Table '2-9 shows all redevelopment potential categories; lands in the lower pot~ntial category are not included as part of the redevelopable land inveritory as explained below, Because the, improvement to land value ratio is a gross ipdicat()r, it is reasonaple to assume that not all of parcels that meet thiS criterion for,. ,redevelopmentpotential will be assumed to redevelop during the planning perio4.". ...'.'., , " , ,.'. ,. . '," . ' , The data show that thelower potentiai criteria (buildingc'()Verage <20% of to~llo~ area ,andimprovemerit valu~ >~0.3:1.0 and <=:0.5:1.0) includes 28%,oftheCitY's total elIlPloYlllentlanci base and more than 20% of covei~d eD;lploymeritin 2006: The significant ainoUnt of land and '. employment in this category suggests limited redevelopment potential (from a land capaCity perspective, redevelopment only happenS wh~n an existing use is replaced by a use that has more employment). Thus, the lower potenti~l category is not included as part of the redevelopahle base. Excluding the lower cCitegoty leaves 588 unconstrained acres that are . potentially rede~elopable. This represents the redevelopable land base that is used for the purpose of this study. . " .' Table 2-10 shows potentially redevelopable land by plan designation and by parcel size.8 This analysis is useful in that it shows the distribution of potentially redev:elopable land by parcel size, which allows an evaluation of whether a sufficient mix of parcel sizes is available. The distribution of buildable land by parcel size varies by pIan designation, with the results showing the City has very few vacant tax lots (1) over 20 acres with redevelopment potential. 8 The table shows total acres in vacant tax lots (constraints are not netted out) Page 22 ECONorthwest September 2009 Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis ~ Table 2-10. Buildable acres in potentially redevelopable tax lots by plan designation and parcel size, Springfield UGB, 2008 ' , L.olSize (Buildable Acres) I. :10.00- 20.00- j, : PI;m Designation' <0.25 0.25-0.49 ,0.50-0.99 1.00-1.99 2.00.:4.99 5.00-9.99 ' 19.99 50.00 50+, ,Total' , Total Acres ,,' IndUstrial " . Campus Industrial .0,2' .0,5 1,9 3,4 ' 5,.0 .0,.0 .0,0 .0,.0 ,0,.0 , 11,.0 Light Medium Industrial:" 3,9 1.0..0 , 1.0,6 12,4 36,3 19.4 .0,.0 .0,0' ,', .0,.0 ',92,.7 Heavy Industrial 1.4 2,8 9.7 24,5 53,7 32.7 22.4 0,.0 89,5 236,7 SpeCial Heavy Industrial .0,.0 .0,.0 .0,.0 , 1,7 .0,.0 .0,.0 12.4 ' 63,2 .0,.0 77,4 Subtotal 5.5 13.3 22.2 42.0 ' 95.0 52.1 34.9 63.2 ,89.5 417.7 Commercial Commercial 7.6 13',7 21,8 1P 22,6 .0,.0 0,.0 0,.0 .0,.0 78,4 Co.hmunity Commercial .0,.0 .0,.0'. .0,.0 .0,.0 .0,.0 , .0,.0 .0,.0 ,Q,Q .0,.0 , .0,.0 Major Retail Center 1,5 1,8 .0,9 .0,.0 .0,.0 .0,.0 .0:.0 .0,.0 .0,.0 4,3 , Subtotal 9.1 15.5 22.8 12.7 22.6 0.0 0.0 ' 0.0 0.0 82.7 Mixed Use Commercial Mixed Use 9,6 7,8. 14,3 1.0,.0 8,!3 0,.0 .0,.0 , .0,.0 , .0,.0 5.0,6 Light Medium Industrial Mixed Use .0,1 ' .0,3 .0,7 .0.'.0 , ,.0,.0 .0,.0 .0,0 .0,.0 ,0,.0 . 1..1 ,Medium Density Res Mixed' .0,4 .0,3 2,5 .1,2 9,2 .0,.0 .0,9 .0,.0 .0,.0 13,5 , Mixeii Use, ' .1,5 2.2 2.8 3,8 12,4 .0,.0 .0,.0 '.0,.0 , :'.0,.0 22,7 , Subtotal " 11.6 1.0.5 ' 20;2 ' 15.0 3.0.5 ,.0.0 0.0 0.0 87.9 Total' . ,26.2 39.4 65.2 ' 69.7, 148.1 ' ' 52.1 34.9' " 63.2 89.5 588.2 , Number'ofTax Lots' . 'InduStrial . 'il Cam piis ,InduStrial 1 1 2. . 2 2, .0 .0 .0 .0 .' Light Mediu":, Industrial ,38.. ' ~6 14 ,~ 13, : .3' .0, .0 .0 1.03 . HeavY Industrial', , ' 22 6 12 16 16 5 2 '.0 , 1 8.0 Special.Heavy Industrial .0, .0 .0' 1 '.0 .0 1 2 .0 4. ,Subtotal' 61 . ,33 ,28 28 31 '8 3 ,:2, ' ,1 195 ' Commercial Commercial , ,7.0 37 31 9 6 .0 .0 0 b 153 Community Comniercial Major Retail c;enter 17 6 1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 '24 ' Subtotal 87 43 32 , 9 6 0 1n Mixed Use Commercial Mixed Use 69 ' 22 21 '7 3 .0 .0 .0 .0 122 Light Medium' InduStrial Mixed Use 1 1 '1 .0 .0 .0 ci .0 .0 3 Medium DensityReS Mixed 2 1, 3 1 2 ..0 .0 .0 .0 9 , . Mixed Use 11 7 4 3 4 .0 .0 .0 .0 29 Subtotal 83 31. 29 11 9 .0 0 0 163 Total 231 107 89 ' 48 46 8 3 2' 535 , , Saurce: City .of Springfield GIS data; analysis by ECONarthwest Nate: Buildable acres includes "canstrained" acres and "uncanstrained" acres Nate: Acres may nat sum ta tenths due ta rounding errors, Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis September 2009 ECONorthwest Page 23 ,. '. Map 2~6 Redevelopment Potential . ..' . " ',' " " , , " , ". l. Page 24 ECONorthwest September 2009 Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis " o SHORT-TERM LAND SUPPLY This ~ection evaluates t4e short-term,supply of lan'd in ,the Springfield portion ,oftp.e Metropolitan OGB. It b~gins with an overvi'ew of the policy , context, that requires ipisanalysis, and then evahlates the short-term leJrid, s~pply. ' . . POLICY CONTEXT' . . . . . . .' '. . ' .' . , TIle Goal 9 Administrative Rule (OAR 660-009) includes provisions that , , reguirecertain cities to 'ensure an adequate short-term supply of industrial' arid other employment lands. OAR 6{)0;-009-00?(lQ) defines short term supply as follows:' " , ", ,"~..means suitable~land tftat is ready fe>r constructic)n ~ithin ~he' " ' year of an application fora Quilciing permit or reque.st for service, , extension. Enginee'ring feasibility is sufficient to qualify lan<:i for' the"short-tei;m supply of land. Ftinding availability is not '.' ' " required. "'Competitive Short~t.erm Supply" m~aru> !he short-term " supply of land provides a range of sIte sizes and locations to, " 'accomiIiodateth~ market needs of a variety of fudustdal and ' other employment uses." , , , ,',' The Goal 9 rtilealso requITes cities in a Metr~politan Planning ,Organization (MPO, whichincludesSpringfieid) to make a cofumitment ' to provide a competitive short-term supply of leind and establishes targets . : .. for the short-term supply of land. Specifically, OAR 660-009-0020(1)(b)' , , , , . states: "Cities and counties within a Metropolitan Planning Organization must adopt a policy stating that a competitive short-term supply of land as a community economic development objective for the industrial and other employment uses selected through the economic opportunities analysis pursuant to OAR 660-009-0015." The rule goes on to clarify short-term land supply targets for cities in an MPO (OAR 660-009-0025): (3) Short-Term Supply of Land. Plans for cities and counties within a Metropolitan Planning Organization or cities and counties that adopt policies relating to the short-term supply of land must designate suitable land to respond to economic development opportunities as they arise. Cities and counties may maintain the short-term supply of land according to the strategies adopted pursuant to OAR 660-009-0020(2). (a) Except as provided for in subsections (b) and (c), cities and counties subject to this section must provide at least 25 percent of Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis September 2009 ECONorthwest Page 25 .' the totallan:,d supply within the urban growth bouitdary designat~d for it;1du'strial cip.d o~er ~mployment u~es ~s short- , :terni supply~ ..., i, '" :' , ' ':. ", ' : " l ''?'''; :", :,,;:, ',: ,. :' ,:":", ":,','.> ' ; i"::" '(b) Affected c~ti~s and,counties that are un,!-ble to ac~eve th~':" , ",;" target in subsection (a) above may set 'an alternative target based,' " ,mitherr econonuc'opportunities analysis. .', ". " . ' " , '(c) A planning area withlO percent or more of tf:le total land supply enrolled in Oregon's m9.ustrial site certification program ptirsuantto,ORS 284.565 satisfies the requrrements of this s,ectiol1. ,Insmnmary, the rulerequU:~,s Sprin~eldto .assesstheshort-term supply 'of land based on the criteria that land can be ready for conStruction within . oneyear.T~edeterhunatio~i~ l?ase.d on "engin~eripg feasibility." ',' ,:- ANALYSjsbFSH()Rt~TERM'SUPPLY'OF LAND Th~ shor~-te~m supply analysis includesa~l~ds withiI1: the Springfield .' portion of the Metrop()Jjfun UG.B~Toal1alyze the shoitterlIl supply of " , '. " ',. . . ,", ' I"~ - . \' . , . liuld available for industrial and other employment uses, ECO worked closeiy with stclff. from the Springfield P~blic Works and bevelOpm~n~ . ,Serv'ices Departinents~ A nuiriber'()f service is~ues were identifie~ through' 'this prpcess that affects many different sites wIthin the city. Identified .. deficiencies spanned the range of servic~s;:indudmg water, wastewater, ..' stormwater and transportation. Despite the issues staff identified, all areas within the SpringHeld UGB can . . be considered to technically meet the Goal 9 Rule criteria 'of II engineering feasibility." Staff identified few areas where it was not possible to extend services within one year - provided that funding is available. Funding is a much broader and more complicated issue, but falls outside of the Goal 9 rule as written. The analysis did identify the Jasper-Natron area as unlikely to meet the short-term supply criteria. This is due to a combination of wetlands that make drainage an issue as well as the distance from existing water and sewer trunk lines (more than one mile from the nearest 18" sewer line to the north end of the site). Table 2-11 summarizes the number of vacant and potentially redevelopable acres in the short-term land supply. The results indicate that 91 % of the vacant commercial and industrial land is considered available as short-term supply, and 85% of land with redevelopment potential is available as short-term supply. Buildable land in the }asper- Natron area is not considered part of the short-term land supply. The Page 26 Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis ECONorthwest September 2009 Jasper-Natron area is the only area of the city with employment lands that are not considered pattbf the short term ~upply. , , ' Tabl~ 2~11,. ~hort-term ~and supply Acresin ': I>, , . : Ca~go~/Plan Buildable, Short-Term' , Designation, ' Acres Supply , V~cant , Co'rrimercial , fndustrial Mixed Use , Subtotal . Potentially Redevelopable Commercial Industrial Mixed Use 'Subtota,1 " ' 54.1, 254.8 , 45.6, 354.5 , 45.5 231.5 45.6 322.7 ' 80.7 , 412;'2 , " 87.9 580.9' . ',80.7 325.6, ' 87,9 ,494.2 'SOlirce:,City of Springfield GIS data; amilysis by ECONorttiwest .' ., ',' '"'. ' . ': 1 . "Note: Acres may not sum to tenthsd~e to roun~ing errors" ' , '. . . Percent !n ' ,Short Te~" Supply , 84% , 91% 100% 91% 100% 79% 100% ' 85%', , " Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis September 2009 ECONorthwest Page 27 Econ,omic Trend~ and Factors ",,~ffectin,g:::Fut~te,' Ec~'n9mic ',Growth:inS'pr,in'gfield". " , , ' , :,' Chapter 3 ,"', '". , , Springfield existS as part of the larger economy of the southern Willamette , Valley and is strongly influenced by regional economic conditions. For · 'many fac,tors, such as labor, Springfield does not differ significantly from 'the broader !egion. For other factors, such as income, it does.Thus~" ' . Springfi~ld benefin; trom being'a partof the larger regional economy Ml;d " playsa spe~ific role in the r,egioIlal economy. ' "', This chapter ~timmariz~sriationai/state, county, and l()cal trends ~d 'otherfactOfsaffE!cting economic gtowthiIl Sprirlgfield.'f:ach heading m .'f:h;is chapterrej:m:~sentsak~y tren~ qreconomic factor that will:clffed. ' . Springfield's economy an,dec<:momicdevelopment potential. A,more d~tailedanalysis of economic trends arid factors affecting Springfield' s futUieeconomicgr6w~ is pfE~sentedinAppendices A aiid~,.," , , " , . . . : . AVAILABILITY OF LABOR ',' . '. . , The availability. of trained workers in, Springfield will iIDpaet development . , of Springfield's economy over the plantting period. Based on the analysis in this section, the key trends that will affect the workfor~ein Springfield over the next 20-years include Springfield's growing population, aging population, relatively low income, and commuting trends., GROWING POPULATION' Population growth in Oregon tends to follow economic cycles. Historically, Oregon's economy is more cyclical than the nation's, growing faster than the national economy during expansions, and contracting more rapidly than the nation during recessions. Table 3-1 shows population growth in the U.S., Oregon, the Willamette Valley, Lane County, Eugene, and Springfield-for the 1990 to 2007 period. Lane County grew slower than the State average between 1990 and 2007, growing at 1.1 % annually and adding more than 60,000 people. More than 60% of the County's population lived in the Eugene-Springfield area in 2007, with about 17% of the County's population in the Springfield city limits. Springfield's population grew faster than the County average, at 1.5% annually, adding 12,637 residents over the seventeen-year period. Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis September 2009 ECONorthwest Page 29 I, 'J I' Table 3-1. Population in the U.S., Oregon, the Willamette Valley, Lane County, Springfield, and Eugene, 1990-2007 .. Population Change 1990 to 2007 . 1990 2000 2007 Number PercentAAGR 248,709,873281,421,906 301,621,157 52,911,284 . 21 % " " 1.1 % 2,842,321 3,421,399' '3,745,4~5 ,: 903,134, 32% ." 1.60/~ 1,962,816 2,380,606,' 2,602,790 639,974 33%, 1.7% 282,912 322,959 343,140'" 60,228 21% 1.1 % 44,683 ' , 52,864 '57,320 '12,637 28% 1.5% 112,669, 137,893 153,690 41,021 36% 1.8% Area U,S. Oregon: , Willamette Valley Lane County' , Springfield Eugene Source: U.S, Census, the Population Research Center at Portland State University, Notes: Benton, Clackamas, Lane, Lirm, Marion, Multnomah, Polk, Washington, and Yamhill Counties represent the Willamette Valley Region. Figures for Springfield and Eugene are for areas inside their f.espective city limits. " . , Migratiori isthe largest component ()f population gr()wth inQregon. " Betwe'en 1990 arid 2007, in-migrationaccouritedfor?O%of,Oregon's population growth~ 'Ov~rthesame period, ~-migr~tion accounted for: ,74% of population gro'ftl1~Laile County, adding nearly44;500 !eSidents', over, the seventeen-year period. , .j I , AGINGPOPULA TION : The numbe~ of people age 65, and older in 1;he U., S.' is expectedtodouble by 2050, while the numberofpeople Under age 65 will only grow'by 12%, The economic effectS of this demographic change include a slowing of the growth of ,the labor force, need for workers to replace retire~s, aging of the workforce for seniors that continue working after age 65, an increase in the demand for healthcare services, and an increase in the percent of the federal budget dedicated to Sodal Security and Medicare.9 The average age of Springfield residents is increasing. According to the US Census, Springfield's average age was 32 in 2000, 30 in 1990, and 26 in 1980. Table 3-2 shows the change in age distribution for Springfield between 2000 and 2008. The age group that increased the most was people aged 45 to 64, which grew by 2,540 people (24 %). This age group's proportion of the total population increased from 20% to 23% during this time period. The largest percentage decrease was in people aged 18 to 24, which shrunk by 913 people (16%). 9 The Board of Trustees, Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Federal Disability Insurance Trust Funds, 2008, The 2008 Annual Report of the Board of Trustees of the Federal Old-Age and Suroivors Insurance and Federal Disability Insurance Trust Funds, Apri1lO, 2008. The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2007 to 2016, January; and Congressional Budget Office, 2005, The Long- Tenn Budget Outlook, December. Page 30 ECONorthwest September 2009 Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis 'I;, Table 3-2. Change in age distribution, Springfield, 2000-2008 2000 2008 Change 2000 to 2008 Age Group Number ' Percent Number Percent Number Percent Share Under 5 4,327 8% 4,121 7% -206 :. -5% -0.8% 5-17 . 10,069, 19% 10,477 19% 408 4% -0.3% 18-24 5,890 11% 4,977 9% -913 . -16% -2.3% 25-44 16,609 31% 17,372 ,31% 763 5% -0.4%' 45-64 10,546 ' 20% 13,086 23% ' .2,540 24% 3.4% 65 and over 5,423 10% 5,983 11% 560 10% 0.4% Total 52,864 ,100% , 56,016 100% 3,152 60/0 0.00/0 Source: U,S, Census 2000 and Claritas 2008 ' " . Note: PerCent change over the 2000 to 2008 period is based on the growth in the age group divided by the number of people in the age group in 2000, For example, people 5 to 17 years old hada 4% percent change, which was calculated using the following calculation: 408/10,069= 4%. . Note: Share refers to the change in the percent of an age group between 2000 and 2008, For example, the share of people ,18 to 24 years old decreased from 11 % to 9%, a decrease of2.3%. ., Note: Percentages may not add to 100% as a result of roundi~g ~rrors. . , , . Springfield's population was younger than the CountY, or State averages in 200K Figure3-1 shows the age structure for Oregon, Lane County, . Eugene, .and Springfield in 2008. Springfield had a greater proportion of its population under 44 y~ars of age (66%) than Eugene (62%), Lane County (58%), orOregon (60%). Springfield also had a smaller share of population aged 55 and older, 21 % of Springfield's population, compared to 24% in Eugene, 27% in the County, 26% in the State. Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis September 2009 ECONorthwest Page 31 , Figure 3-1. Population by age, Oregon, Lane County, Eugen~, and, Springfield, 2,008 , 65 and o\er =============-- -_.'j , 55-64 I I, ' , i I i 'I ;, ! 45-54 ~ . -------- 35-44 , Gl , Cl <l: 25-3.4 - - ----- - - - ---- ..J 18-24 I I 10-17 I 'I I " I Under 10 - ~ ----- --- 0% 5% 10% " 15% 20% Percent of Population . Oregon I!!I Lane County 0 Springfield 0 Eugene Source: Claritas 2008, percentages calculated by ECONorthwest. " , . INCOME Over the last twenty-four years, income in Oregon has been below national averages and income in Lane County has been below state averages. There are four basic reasons that income has been lower in Oregon and Lane County than in the U.S.: (1) wages for similar jobs are lower; (2) the occupational mix of employment is weighted towards lower paying occupations; (3) a higher proportion of the population has transfer payments (e.g. social security payments for retirees), which are typically lower than earnings; and (4) lower labor force participation among working age residents. To a certain degree, these factors are all true for Oregon and Lane County. The combination of these factors results in lower income for Oregon and Lane County. In addition, wages in Lane County and Oregon tend to be more volatile than the national average. The major reason for this volatility is that the relative lack of diversity in the State and County economy. Wages in Oregon and Lane County are impacted more than the national average by downturns in either the national economy or in industries in Oregon that Page 32 Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis ECONorthwest September 2009 are dependent on natural resources (e.g., timber and wood processing or R.V. manufacturing). Lane County's median household income ~ 2006 was $42,127, comp~red with $46,230 for Oregon and the national average of $48,451. Figure 3-2 shows the ,distribution of household iricome'in Oregon, Lane County, Eugene, and Springfield ill 2008. Figure 3-2 shows that a larger share of households in Springfield (32%) had an income of $25;000 or less, compared to Lane County (27%) or the State (23%). Springfield also has a lower share of households with income ab.ove $75,000 (17%), compared to Eugene (23 % ), the County' (23 %), or the State (47%). Figure 3-2. Distribution of household income of U.S.; Oregon, and Lane County, 2008 $100,000 ~ $150,000 Greater. than $150,000 ell E 8 $75,000 - $99,999 c "0' '0 .c. 3l $50,000 - $74,999 :l o J: $25,000 - $49,999 Less than $25,000 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Percent of Households . Oregon IliI Lane County 0 Springfield 0 Eugene Source: Claritas 2008 The low average income in Lane County and Springfield, relative to Oregon and the U.S., make Springfield attractive to some firms considering moving within the U.S. Firms continue to outsource back- office functions, such as call centers or administrative functions, within the U.S. Lane County's relatively low labor costs and the availability of trained workers make Lane County attractive to firms considering relocating back-office functions. Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis September 2009 ECONorthwest Page 33 .,: II , :1 II [, EOUCATIONAL ATTAINMEN~ Th~ avail~bility of tr~iried, educated wor~~.r~ affects ln~, qriality O,f ~a9or'in' a commumty. Ec,hicational attainmen,t is ~~ impo,rtant labor.for,c,e fa<;:tor " because fum~ heed:to be able to find ed~cated ~ork~rs~'Ih2067, 26% of, ' .. .'Spriilgfieid.;s'r~siderit5, had~'associate' ~'degt~'~ or highe~, ~ompa~~d to' ',: ' , the COUIlly averag~ 'o~ 37% 'and ~ugene' sav~rage o~ 47% of res,idents with ' ':~ associate's degree 'or higher. FiJ,-ms locating in Sprmgfield will be able. to attract empl~yees ~o~'within Springfi~ld aridacros,s the Euge~e- Springfi~ld re~oIl": ' . ': WORKF'O~C.E"I'A~TICIPATION,: , " ", Th~ ~tlire~tlaborf~rce'parti~ip~tioA r~te.is an iillportantconsid~rationm ,,' the availa.bilitY''Ofl~bor.the laborfor~eiti' ~ri,ymarketcorlsists'of theadult 'P9pul~pon (1~ c:m4 ()ver)who are 'w:orking or,~ctivelyseel4ng work,. The' . , . ~abor'Of():rce, inclvdes both the employed :hii.q.UIl,employed. q~d~~n, ,'. '.' , " ",tetirees;stUd,ents, :'and people '''Yh6'are not ac~tiv~ly see~ing 'work ar,e not' . :' c'o~id~red part qt th~ ,la~o~ ,fon:e. ,', "," , " " . ",'.' ," '", .', ". I; " , In'1o.07, Sp'ringfi~,~d' s lapoi .participa~<>'ll rate was 67% of their:"bver-16 ,': population of over 43"o.o.O~ Oftl1~ii 67~in ~e'1ab()r force, ~o.% were. . , ~eInpIQy~d. In compariso,n, .L~e County had 63 % labor force. ", participation, 8% o~ whom were Upemplpy~d., Labor force pa~ticipatiort " ,r~,tes hav~ dropped by about ~ %. s~ce 20.0.0., when Springfield's labor. ' . ",: participation ratewa~?8%, compa.red to the State average of 64,%. . " , COMMUTINGPA TTERN,S , , COlnmuting plays an important role in Spr.ingfield's economy. Springfield residents generally have a shorter commute than residents of Lane County or Oregon. Eighty percent of Springfield residents commute 29 mmutes or less, compared to 77% of Lane County residents and 69% of Oregonians. Residents of Springfield are less likely to have a long commute, with 7% of Springfield's residents commuting 45 minutes or more, compared to 10.% of Oregonians. The majority of Springfield's workforce (79%) lives in Lane County, with 29% in Springfield and 23% in Eugene. The majority of Springfield residents (81 %) work in Lane County, with 25% working in Springfield and 40.% working in Eugene. The implication of this data is that most people living or working in Springfield commute within the Eugene-Springfield area. This commuting pattern gives Springfield firms access to the workforce within the Eugene- Springfield region. Even though commutes in Springfield are generally Page 34 Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis ECONorthwest September 2009 shorter than the State average, these com~uting patt~rns create demand for a:utomotiye and qther forms of transpor~tion; both within;Springfield , and. ~n ~oa~s ~oughout the Eugene~Springfie~d regio~,' :' :;' ;' " , . ...increaskgel1etgy pric~~ may ~piict i;Jinin~tirlgpatterl1swithin the ': .. . , ;Eug;~n~'':~pringfield area: The nnpact i~ most likely' to be gre,at~st for'], : ~ :" reside;nts livrngk,the ~ri1Jlle~,'~lti~'~ ar~und the Eugene-Springfi~id 'area':, , . (e.g., V ~n~ta or Qakridg,e) ~ecause the commute to Springfield is longer,', , . , froDJ.'the~e outlying c~ties.W~gness to commute by most w()rkersliving ': , andworkitlg within I?ugerie' and Sprmgfield ,is like~y to ha,verelatively , . ' , little ~pact.from fuel pri<;:es, :unles's prices increase dramatically.,' " ' . . . . l' " ,_. J'," ", '). " , . , . ....CHAN<:;ESINEI\IIPLOYMENT 1 .' ',','The 'econ~IpY of tl1.~'ndti~~ ~h(ll1ged}nth~i980 to1606J)erio~~'ibese." ,,' ',chang~s 'affect~~ the compositio~'~f Oregop' s' e,conomy,m~l.u(ling'Laile,' .' 'C()~ty ~~, Sprmgf~eld~' !i1e: ~os~'41lp~i.tan:t shift <;It#ing tlU.~p~riod'~t ' t4e ri~tional-Iey~i was t.he,'~hif~ in'employment from (l fbc~s'on', ' i, ',' . .' rrlan~a<;~ring to, $erVlces~ }be m<;>st, iniP~rtant s1.illt ill Qreg~ll;, ~~luding' ,', , ,Lane, C,ounty 'and,OSpting[teld,' ~as b~en the shift fr~~, a' tim~~r~bas~d ,', . 'economy toamdre' diverse,'~'~oncHny,'with the greatest employment ffi' servtces.,'The mosfm:portcl~ttten~~ 'andchariges memployment fdr ,,' . Springfield <?yer the 'next 20-year~ are: shifts in employment, growing . importance of healtl). care, ,continued iplportarlce 'of manufacturing, and ' outlook for growth' in ~pringfield. ' ' , " '..,.. SH'I,FTS' IN ,EM,PLOYMENT " , , , ' , Over the past few decades, employment in the u.S. has shifted from rilanufacturing anci resour<;:e-intensive industrie~ to service-oriented se(:tors of the economy. Iricreased worker productivity and the . international outsourcing of routine tasks have lead to declines in employment in the major goods-producing industries. In the 1970s Oregon started to transition away from reliance on traditional resource-extraction industries. An important indicator of this transition is the shift within Oregon's manufacturing sector, with a decline in the level of employment in the Lumber & Wood Products industry10 and concurrent growth of employment in high-technology manufacturing industries (Industrial Machinery, Electronic Equipment, and Instrumentsn). 10 Lumber and Wood Products manufacturing is in Standard Industrial Oassification (SIC) 24 n SIC 35, 36, 38 Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis September 2009 ECONorthwest Page 35 ; , , " ' , ,I ' . :' t ill' 1;, ,AsOregon has transitioned a~ay froll). naturaJ re~ource~b?lsed industries, the cqm,PQsi~on of Oregon's emplqym~nt:h,a~,shif~ed f1:oIl).:natural; ~ r~~o~fc,e base9- manufac~riJ;Lg'anq. ?ther ,~~~~tr~~s, to' 'seryic~ ~~~stries. ;,' ':' ': \ ',:11~~"~n~t~ ofOregon',s ,tot~l emploY~~ilti!L"Sery'i~e ~~histHes in~reased ' ,: ' , 'Jr~~ its ~~70s, ave~age of 19'% :~6 30% ':in 2QOQ, while eD;ipI6yril~ntiri ' ,," ,,' : , ,Manufa~mriPg de~1illed froD;l ap,ay~rage, o~ 18 % of total erP-pl<?ymetlt ,in , th~ 1970(to,' arl 'average of 1~ % in '~OOO. : ' " , , ~', 1 ,- '. ' " . i' ' ," , , ': " 'The changes in employment in Lane Co~ty h~n~e' followed similar trends ' , as changes ill ~a~onaland s~te' employment: Between 1980 and 2006, , L~e <:ouhty' added more: tIlan'53,000 jobs. The sectors with tile ~eate~t", ch~ge in sh~reqf eri1ploYD)entwer~ Seririce,s,'aIld,Retai! Trad~, adding, Illore, thaIl38~?OO 9r73% ofnewjqbs~6Ver the 46~yeat' period( , ,", ,,'WaI)Ufacmrmg add.~d m:or~than4;000jobs (8% 'of new jobs),' With the, " , . ,great~stgto'~thiri: ,Transpo~~fionE(l1iip~~~~ manUfac~ririg ~(R.V'~ ',~, ' ':tilan~actU~g);~<?inptiter and' Ele~tro'nics, mari~cicttiriI1g, and, ' , ' ":',:'Ma~~ery~~ufa~mr,uig.\,,': ," ", "",,' '" ': " " r, , " ' , ",I :> ' ,: . I' J, ' ' Soine i~,d~stries 41' the're'gion's' eItipl~yment base'hcnre vola~e' ,: ,", ,'" emp~oym~nt cycl~s. Th~s~ indu~triestyp~cally 'have hoom, ~n,d bJl~tcycles,' ,,', ' , ' which r~s~lt cy~les 'of hiring and l~yoffs>TheI~mber and ~o,6d ,produ~ts ., '.ind~,stryistiedto nati?nC;llhol:1~irig market cycles, Wi~,decreased ' productivio/and,empI6y~entin slow housing ~ark~ts.:'TheRY', ' ;,' manUfacm:dng industry is tied, to broader national 'e~6nbmi~ trends arid ' . energy price changes~, Fin~lly, the region' s high~tech"cotitpan1~S are ~ubjec~ .' to m~rket'trer.'-ds ~the high-~ech ~dustry,including changes in, " production methods and consumer purchasing patterns. Two majo:r high- tech fimis, Hynix and Sony, located in the Eugene-Springfield region and closed their production facilities between the mid-1990's and 2008. The average pay per employee in Lane County in 2006 was $33,240. The sectors with above average pay and high employment were: Construction, Manufacturing, Government, and Health and Social Services. The sectors with below average pay and high employment were: Retail, Accommodations and Food Services, and Administration and Support and Waste Management. In 2006, Springfield had 27,310 jobs at 1,819 establishments, with an average firm size of 15 employees. The sectors with the greatest employees were: Retail (13 % ), Government (13 % ), Health Care and Social Assistance (11 %), and Manufacmring (10%). These sectors accounted for 17,863 or 65% of Springfield's jobs. Page 36 ECONorthwest September 2009 Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis I J . OUTLOOK FOR GROWTH IN SPR'INC?F,IELD 'I' l', , , - , , ~e State forecasts ~a~ e~plQy~ent\yill contintiegrowir,lg ~ Lane , Counry at 1.4 % ave,r~ge ~ual grC?~th, compar,e,d w~th ~e ~tate ~verage ' ' ",' ,o~ 1~3~ ~yerage ann~?-l growth,. The secto:t;s that will'l~ad employm~nt,:~, " " ,gro-\:vt}j m Lane C<?~ty for the ten-year perioq. are: HealUt,Care &'SQcial", : ," Assis~ce (adding 5,690 Jobs)~ Governri1ent (adding' 3,6Q()'j'<?bs),' , ,'" "" ~,r()fe~~ion,al an~ ;l3usiness ,Services (ad~irg 3;000 jobs), Leisure, ~ ' Haspitality (adding 2,800 jobs),~d"Retail J:rade (adding 2,400 jobs). ' T ~gether, thes~ sectors an~ ~xpected to add 17,400 new jobs or 76 % af ' , , "employment gr<?wth in ~ane Coupty. Springfield has a hlgh'canc'entratian ~f ,emp~oymentin Healt4Car'e,'& So~i~I'Assis~ce~ ,es.pe~iallywi~, the r~location ofPeaceBea:lth' ~ r~gio~~l,h~~pital b) ,Rive'rBe~d.. Springfi~ld' ~, , c9n~entration, of e:rnplbymenf in 'health care::~ay ft,irth~r increas~b~s~d,on ..' , ,':w~er~ Mc~~nzle~ Willamette 'M'eClic,al' Center ielo<;:a'tes to and the sizeof'" ',,' ,." ','thene'o/<l:1osPf~,L ' . , ' " " ,,,, 1 , , ' : b~e: ~qy, to delerD)ine app~r~~~sfo~ ~~onQ~~c deveiopin~Ilt is' to ' , ,,',".'4etet~~eth~ sectQrs ~l$'th~ gt~a~est ,expe~ted ~owth,~ the region " , ' (l>ase~ o~ th~Oi'eg?]iE~ployrilent Depattm~nt's fote~ast far ernployme~t. ' graw~,iil, Larie"Coutlty'be~een 200~ ail~ 2016) ~d ~~ greatest ' ' concentration of existing employment in the, community (bas,ed 'on a , " cainp~risdn 9f employment data in' Springfieldcirld the State i.J:l2006)., ' 'Sect:ors with,high e'Iriploymeht concentrati9n in Spri?g#~ld'aridhigh: ' ',growth for~casts,'~rethe industry's most likely to. grow: The~e,sectorsin 'Springfi~ld are: liealth and Social Assis~ce; Administrative and Support and Waste, Management Services; Constfuct;ion; and AccommodationS' , arid Food Services. ' ; ,; Springfield may have opportunities for growth"in other .sectors that the State forecasts will have high growth. Springfield, however, ,does nat currently have high concentrations in some of these sectors: Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation; Management of Companies and Enterprises; Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services; and Private Educational Services. It is unclear what long-term impact rising fuel and transportation costs will have on Oregon's economy, including Springfield. Globalization and outsourcing of jobs, especially manufacturing jobs, has occurred since the 1980's, changing the state's economy. Globalization depends, in part, on inexpensive transportation of materials and manufactured goods. Businesses have relocated from areas with lower labor casts, in part, because transportation costs were low. Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis September 2009 ECONorthwest Page 37 I . 1,1 -=-_ . 1;- _ ;, ' , J Increases in fuel prices have resu~t~d In higher transportation costs, decreasing ~e benefits of lower ~age~. It is pqssi1?le thflt, if fuel and, , , transp<?rtatiori~osts :remain ,p.igh and/ ()r::increase>comp~esmay m~v.-e , , .'", to b~ ~los~,r ~o ~lIPpli~rs .or ~6llsu~ers~" ~ ~ff~<;e~c~~ts iJ:tS!~l.llentally/ ", , , ' 'oyer tim~ and it is 'difficult to ql~asure ~e iinpa<;t m ~e short-term. 'If fuel,:' , ','p~ic~s, ciriCi ;tr~po~tciti~n cos~decrease ove* th~ p~~g pe~iod; ::~ " :::, ,;': , '~tIsn,je~se,s may not #lak~ the decision to relocate (bas~d on' tTanspor~atiort.';" '. : . cosl$) because the benefits of being closer ~o ,suppliers and inarketsn;iay , , " not exceed the costs .of relocation~ ' ' , ,,',' ;,' ,: ., , " 1 . , \ !,,' , 'REGIONALB,~S'INES~' ACTIV,TY: ,', GR()WINGi"'rORTAN9~OFH~ALTI-ICARl;p'~ . ..... ..' . ...., . , Pea~er,Ieill~ ,has ~ece,rttly relocate4 'jts ~~~, hP:spital to the ,G~te~ay :area :', .- , " >,::",. . . ,:in Sp~iJ;lgfield~, The Riv~r Be,:Qd 'calllPlls will have ,~,5QO, Peac~lfealth :' :. .' employees pythe ~n~ of.200~,,~ occ~pationsil}clud~g:'Pllysicians> " . . " '. '. .' ~u.-rs~~/'mediqd tecMicialls, 9ther me4ical staff,' envrron~ental' ~ervkes" " .',','...,sfaf[",aild'fo~d"~erVices staff.,PeaceH~althstar1:e4relptClting' '",' ':'. i ,': ". .".' " ,,' , , ,,' :admillJstfati~e and~th~r st~f to the, ~ver Bend '~~~' in 20,0(j (loc~fed ,iri , , 'the former Sony (li~cmfu1t1facturing build~g),~~chha~' 7qO,empI6y~es. ..,' ,.' " . ':. . " : The RiverBen.d c~mpus ~ill attract ~<.lditi~naff~s. For ex~ple, br~gon 'Medical Labs, Oregon ~maging Centeriaridthe,Northwest,Specic~1ty.. , CJinics will have,appro~iInately 350 staff an~ 'p~y~Icians at ~eRiver13e9~ ',camPt1~. The RiverBend Pciv:ilion will have about 300 ~mployees~ at the Oregon Medical Gro~p, Oregon Imaging, ,and pther medIcal businesses., , ,- , , , , , Elllploymen~ in health care may also increase in Springfield, depending on where McKenzie-Willametle Medical Center locates its riew facility~ If the new facility is located in Springfield and if the facility is bigger and employs more people than the existing hospital, Springfield will have another major healthcare center as well as more healthcare employment. CONTINUED IMPORTANCE OF MANUFACTURING Manufacturing continues to be important to the economy in Springfield and in Lane County. Manufacturing accounted for 14% of employment (more than 20,000 jobs) in Lane County and 10% of employment (more than 2,700 jobs) in Springfield in 2006.12 Manufacturing industries continue to offer jobs with above-average wages, making these jobs more desrrable. 12 Oregon Employment Department Page 38 ECONorthwest September 2009 Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis ;: ',: ' Manufacturing grew, slo"Yly in ~ane CaUnty between 1980 and 2006, at an average annual rate ~{b.3%,addtng mare than 4,000 jabs. The State f?recasts con~ue~ grqwth inma,nuf~b~ring at the sa~e rate,9ver',the 20Q6 to' 2Q~6, p~r~o~.',,;' . '/', " , " ,,' ',:', , . .}.1~ufac~g i~ a traded Sector industry, whichbnngsrevenue hlto , .'Orego~aI)d Lane ta~ty fra~ autsidethe State. The fallowing" ,',' , , ", m~tifactuiing inclustriesacca~tedfar ~9-tJ:ird~"($11biilian) of revenu~' fra~ :e~parts ,inOreg~n jll2007: ,Samputer & Electranic Praduc~on,' , , ,Transpartatian Equipm~nt, Machinery Manufactul:'ers, Che'mical "'" , 'Manufacture,~cl Primary Mefui Manufacturers.13 'These industries are'all , pr~sentin Lane CatllltY,a~ca~tirig far 44 %af ,mariuta,cturing" , e~playIri~nt~ the,Counti:" , ' , ,~ ,. , ,\ ': \ C'6~~U,~g. 'ch~g~s 'in',th~ etan~my JnaY lmpact~Cllliliacttiririgi!lLarie: ' :~oUnty .', For: ~xample,~gl1, er~rgy,prices ~ayhave been,afactar in: ~e ,.': " d..ec!e~~e <?fRV manufacturing in Lane COunty, ~hich has resuItedin the, IClyaff ofemploye~s geginrun~(in 2006:.,~"additian, the ~canQlpi~ ,', ,q,a~tUm and,~ans,oMdation 'af thepaper man~~chirmKind~stry Il1'ay ",. ' 'resp.It ip layaffs 'in fir:rI~,'sthat manufachITe waad piaducts and ,paper.' : ' '" ' .~' , ". ',' ' ,,' l' , ) , .' " , ,. , .,' " ' , . '. ' ~', ' , 'AJ~augh much.of this' em.'playment 'is lac:atedoutsi~e '~f Springfield, it " ',affects residents qf Springfield, either directly thraugh jab layaffs ar , indirectiy:thraugh decreases in eq)na~i~ activi~. " ' . , '. , TOURISM IN "LANE COUNTY' " . ,,' ," , " " , ' 'Taurism brIngs ecanamic activity into' Lane County train autside saurces. Taurism exp~nditures 'in Lane Caunty in 2006 grew' 7.5%, to' $553 millian, , , exceeding the statewide tourism grawth tate far the' year. Taurism accounts far abaut 7,500 jabs in Lane Caunty. ' A majar saurce af taurism spending is avernight accammadatians. In 2008, the Eugene-Springfield Regian had 3,118 tatal raams. Occupancy rates varied fram 59% in fiscal year 2002 and 2003 to' 72% in fiscal year 2006. Springfield levies a 9.5% transient ladging tax an avernight accammadatians. Between 2000 and 2008, Springfield's ladging tax revenue varied fram $1.2 millian in fiscal year 2004 to' $1.6 millian in fiscal year 2007. Springfield's transient ladging tax revenues accaunted far abaut ane-quarter af tatal Caunty ladging tax revenues. 13 "Economic Data Packet, Mary 2008," Oregon Economic And Community Development Department Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis September 2009 ECONorthwest Page 39 , 'IfF , -~ ~ - , , "II,;' ", ',l, , SIGNIFICANCE OF AQRICUL.TUREIN LA:NE COUNTY ' ,) ,.) : , . - ,. , Agriculture 'cop.ti1}iIeS to be 'imp~rtal1t in, L3A~ C9t0ty; seconomy. ~ 2002,. ,'.L~e ~p~fy h~d'approxnrtately,$8~~~<?n jr\'t?~l,iross ~a~es fr~ir' , .' " , ",' ,"agricu~ture~."1;bel()p'five agricldtu!al'pr~d~c~'mLane-<;:o~tr#r2'OO?:: "" .':'. ,,' "i.', ':,' weJ:e:',,'Nur~ery 'and greenhouse ($2f,million); ~ilkand',d~hy,($lO:3' " ',', :;,',' " ' 'm~op'): c~t#e 'an~ calves ($'7.,6 IIlWion), fruitsittee tluts,'aI1<:ib~rr~es ($6.7: :,.. ,:illilli~ti);, ahd vegetables, Illelons,'potatoes, ,an~ sweet pota't9~~ ($5..6, ' "million)~,: ' ., l' ','; . 1 , ' ,', vyhrie agric~lture is ~, imPO!tqnt 'source ,of ec.o~o~c a~ti~i,ty'~ Lane, ' ,Co~ty, Springfi~ld has relatively,litUeagrlcultural e~pl?yrilen~ withir1' 'theUGB~In,2006( about 1 %o~,Springfi~ld's' ~,over~d"ep1pldy~ent (28~' , ,':em:pioyees) w~re employed'm'tpe Agricu1ture;F'oresiTy,Fi~hip.g,'aJ;ld , " " , 'Mining"s,ect~~s. About half ot th~se jobs (13~ ~mployee~) were in fo~estry' , " ,and,L()gging. Consistent with statet-yide land use pqlicy, l~d wi~ the ':' ,'" :Sprmgfield UGB ~~,committed for ,futur~ urban uses, rather ~ar:t'" ' , "agricul~ral~~es. ' ,', " " " " " '. " :, ,:' , . .... SPRINGFIEL[)'SC'dMPARATIVEADVANT~GES .. . , , , , ',EconoIllic:developmenf opp'ortunities i1:lSpringfield will he aff~cted by.', " .local con<litio~ as 'well as the ~ational ~dstate eco,nomic condItions' ' , 'ad<:iressed~bove and described m',Apperidix'j\. :Factors affectingfuhlre . economic dev~lopment in the Springfie~dinclride its location, availabilio/ 'of tr~, " 'portauon facilities and other public f~c$.tie's, qUC;lIlty and . ' " , ~~ailabi~ty 'qf labor, and quality' of life. Economic conditions in , ',SprIngfield relative to these conditions iJi'o'ther portions of the Lane " County and southern Oregon form Springfield's ,comparative advantage for economic development. Springfield's comparative advantages have implications for the types of firms most likely 'to locate and expand in Springfield. There is little that Springfield can do to influence national and state conditions that affect economic development. Springfield can influence local factors that affect economic development. Springfield's primary comparative advantages are its location on 1-5, proximity to Eugene, access to skilled labor and cost of labor, and high quality of life. These factors make Springfield attractive to residents and businesses that want a high quality of life where they live and work. The local factors that form Springfield's comparative advantage are summarized below and described in detail in Appendix B. · Location. Springfield is located in the Southern Willamette Valley, next to Eugene, between the Willamette River (to the Page 40 ECONorthwest September 2009 Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis , 1, , , ;' '> .: ' ~ . , , ' , l' , . " , sou~) and M~Kenzi~ River (to the north). Interstate 5 runs to the ,we~~ of Spring~eld and High~ay 126 runs east-we,st tht?ug~ ?priAg#~~~.> ,0'. : , , ) ,-' , SpriPgfleld' s Ip~ap~~,atce~~ 1:0 J-~ arid tIigliway ~26l ai1a ,', ' , p!oxiri#tY to Eugene ~e pr~alycomp~ative' adv~tag~sf~r : ~conomic de~elopmei1t in Sp~mgfield.tl;1ese factor~'Iriake :',' ' Springfield a~a.ctiv~ to businesses, esp~cially ',those 'wan1#l'g 'to ' ,locate in the WWamette:Va~ey. " , " · ,'Buying P~wei, 'ofM~kets. The buying po,~e,r o{Springfield' , , ,"and theEugelle-Springfield area form$ part QfSprmgfield's ' , , 'corrip~r'ative advaJ;ltage by providirig am~!ket for' good~ and , 's~rvic~,s.,1}cc<?r~ing to'estinlates''on hou~ehqld sperid1ng'by.,':: ' ' " ,,', Cla,ritas; households ip'Sprmgfield are exi)~ct~d to. spetldabout' ' ", ' ,'" $93?millioJ:l,m2~08.~ a~oyt 14%<?ft~taf~olIs~1l0Id expenditures.' , , m the'Euge,rie-Springfiel~RegioJ;l.'Sprlngfield house~ol,ds'spe!l~' , . , ,',an averag~,~f$4~;700 on co~oruy' purchased i~eIrts, n6:t, '" " "'.',.,. , in~hid~g, h6usll1g~ Spririgfi~ld' s hoiis~holds spe;rtt less '~an th~., .' ' regional an<l nation aver~g~s, \vith about, 91 %, of the $47,000,," : aver~geexpe~dituresJbr 'al(house~olds intheEU:gene- ,,' ' Springfield MSA' ~d 84% ~of natio~al average,househ9ld " expenditures (Claritas,4008).' , . " . " , , ' The buYing power of households in the Euge~e-Springfield region,proviq.es Springfield ~ith a comparative advantage. Access to. households in the'Eugene-Springfiel~ Regi~n , provides businesses jn Sprln~field with greater sales p()tential than other, smaller cities m the Southern Willamette Valley. As the population in Springfield (and the Eugene-Springfield region) grows, Springfield will need to provide more lan~ for firms that provide, services to residents and businesses. The majority of this land will be in areas of growth, such as in the Mohawk area. . Transportation. Businesses and residents in Springfield have access to a variety of modes of transportation: automotive (Interstate 5, multiple State highways, and local roads); rail (Union Pacific and Amtrak); transit (LTD); and air (Eugene Airport). Springfield has excellent automotive access for commuting and freight movement. Springfield is located along Interstate 5, the primary north-south transportation corridor on the West Coast, linking Springfield to domestic markets in the United States and international markets visa West Coast ports. Springfield has developed along Highway 126, Highway 126 is Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis September 2009 Page 41 ECONorthwest Ill' the priInary east-west hig~way in Lan~ County, running from Fl6r~nce to R~d~oria. ' ':', " , I , . l ',', 'OthJrtr.~por~tio~opti~~ in;$pr~gfield, iIlcl~de:; ~~ltip~e . ,",Yirldn Pac~c ra~ lines' ptoyi<;le 'fr~fght ~~rv,ice~ ';tr~t~ s~!"lce ' , froni the L~e Transtt'District pro~~d~~'b~s'"s~rvlce;withill,,' Springfield and C()im~cts Springfiel~ withi?ugene; ~d, the E~geneAirport provides both pas~e:q~er and freight' service.' :; J ;: " , '. ".' ,'" ' " . \ ; , " ' , ~pringfield' s~cce~s t~:muitiple mod~s ot transportCitl9n provl~e~ Sprmgfield with"a9-vantages ill attracting busin~sses . ,tl1a'tlleed easy access to I~5 .for ,:\utbmonve ~rs<?ine types of. ',freight m'ovement., Sprmgfield may :J;ave di~adYmitag~s' ~ " "a ttj~c1ii1g business'~s tha t.,n~~d large lots'arid easy a<;cess to ~-;; ,,',(e.g.,'warehousing atld tr~PP'r,~ti9n) beqauseof the,l~ck'~f ":, '.' "hu~dat>le irl~~striall~d ~~oIlgl-$~ea~ :J.::Iig~wa~ ,in~~rc~~.ges,..;,- .: , : ' ",~'., ,. ) ..' 'Public F~ciiities an4- Se~~ce~., Pr6Vi~io~,of:,pulJJic facilities and " , . ' , .' \ . ',' "I ' . ' '~ '.' ' . .. ' ", " -sehilcescan impact a; '~lll' s d~<;ls~on 9n1()cation ~ithiIt,C;\ , , region. Once a 'busilles:s 11as'~hosen i:oloc~te.'Withiri a'regi9n, they conSider 'the factqfs ~at local'gQvernmei1.tS c'an',most . directlyciffec~tax rates,'the cost and qua,lity of public services, . and regul~torY, p()li~ies~' . ' .' ' Springfield'sproperty.mxrate,range's from $16.?2,and $18.65 per $1,000 of assesse<:f value, comp'ared with a state average of $15.20. The property tax rate in Eugene is more va!iahle than Springfield's, rangir1gfrom $10.31 (possibly located in ,an area outside of Eugene's' city limits) to $24.68 per $1,000 of assessed value.14 Springfield's property tax reites may provide the City with little comparative advantage in afuacting businesses, relative to Eugene. . / ' " The City has sufficient water to meet expected residential and employment needs. The local water provider, Springfield Utility Board (SUB), is not concerned about its ability to supply water to any type of industry, including water-intensive industries like food processing. SUB has lower water rates than the national average. The combination of available and lower cost water may be an advantage to afuacting some types of businesses to Springfield. 14 Property tax rates for Springfield and Eugene are a composite of the rates for all properties with an address in Eugene or Springfield. It is almost certain that some-of these properties is located outside of both the Eugene and Springfield urban growth boundaries and are subject to unincorporated Lane County tax rates. Page 42 ECONorthwest September 2009 Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis , \ l . ,~ Based.on discussions with staff at SUB, Springfield expects to be 'J " able to :r:ll:eet demand for wastewater services resulting' fr9,~ ' expect~~ gr9wth. The C~tye~pects to provide se~ice to 6jdo , ' 'n~w; equiy~t~n~, ~~epipg :tWits" ~hich inc,~ude~ ,r~Sj4epc~s ~9-':" " ", bu~m~sses.,,'o~~t ,tJl~ .~~x.t ~q~~ea.rs: :: ,: : " ':-',' ,; ': :;.. ' '. ,- l, , \' · " PubH~,PoIicy. Publicpolig'c~ impatt'the::a~~tffit~d type of econoinicgrowtIi n\'a co~murrity"The City can,inlpacf " ' economic'gr.owth thTqugh its policies ab.out the,provision of, land, redevelopment, arid infill cf.evelop~~nt. S~~cess at" ' ' attractlng'or're~iningfirm~may depend on availability of " : ,a~adi~e, sit~~Ofor ,dev~lopment,esp~ciallyl~rge sites. Fqr: ' ' ' '~~a~pl~lSpfingfield-was;attractive ,as a loca~onpf :P~aceHe'al.th's new'hosplt~lpeta~se the City had..a large;, ' 'r~~qtiv~ly f1~t sit~1~~(lt~4 telative~y Il~a.r, tolriter,state 5 arid -:" ',Bel~e,Iiigl,1way.,: " " ,," " ',' ','?pr~~fieid'sclecisi(nl1rlakei~artiStliat~d ~e~stipport'for" " provision of~mpl~y~ent :larid ,thr~ugh.' theecondrriic " ,,' " . , developmerlt ~t!ate$Y aiLd in', other,' policy ch.oices~. C?bje<;tives,m " the econqmi<: d~vel<?IHn~n,t strategy suppo~ting th~ pr?~ision .of . employment land ~clude .objecqves,'~o:'(l) provid~erilpl9yment " ' land:in 'a varietY,Of locations" configurations, ~d site siies for ' industrial arid .other empJoyment 'uses, (2) prov~d~ an ad~q~ate , competitive short-term sup'j:>ly of s~itabl~ lemd to respond to ' economic deyelQIHnent .op'p.ortunities as they aris~, (3) reserve sites over 20-acresfor spe~iarde\Telopments and industries'that require large sites, and (4) provide adequate infrastructure to sites. " .' " The economic development s1!ategy also includes objectives that support redevelopment of existing land within the UGB, especially in Downtown and in Glenwood, and infill development. In addition, the City is promoting redevelopment in Downtown through the creation of the Urban Renewal District in Downtown Springfield. . Labor Market. The availability of labor is critical for economic development. Availability of labor depends not .only on the number of workers available, but the quality, skills, and experience of available workers as well. Commuting is common in Springfield. About 40%of the people who live in Springfield commute to Eugene for work. Less than one-third of Springfield's workers live in Springfield. The Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis September 2009 ECONorthwest Page 43 , " . "',' " 1::: " J ~ " , ' , , ", " , ','" , j , " :- :Ij: . l ~plication of ~s workforce analysis is that, whil~ only one-, :, third of Spriil.gfi~l~' s ~o~kforce lives ~ithin the City, , : ' , $pringfield are '~ble to ~ttr~ct educated ~or,kers frgm m<?,st of ' Euge~e ai1~,s11rioimdingaT~as~'~aI1eC<~im~~: , ' '" ' . , : '0 . _~'.: l' " ' . ",. '. ~. ",': 1 . ,. '." ' '.. Itjioes ~otappeaJ; that \Vorl1oic'~, ~ill be acol1~tramt ()~ " , ~mployDient growth ip. Spring?el<:i,~ Spririg~eld 'shotilq be able to contit:lue.to draw on'residents <?f Eugene for workers, 'even if , ep,erg)r prices continue tonse but Springfielc;l's ability to a:ttr~ct , workers ft:om outs~de ,of the Erigen;e~Spting~eid area may be' , negativ~ly ~pacted by c()ntiriued~~reases m ene~gy ,price~. ,<'. 'Orpor~ties for'.w~r~orc~, tr~ining ~~'p6st~s~coridaty:',";" .. ,e<:iucati.orrJo! res~derits of the ;Euge.?e~Spr~gfiel(ra!eainclud~:' , , , t4~ Um~~r~ity' of .Q:reg~n;' Lan~' ~ommumty ,c::o~~ge"Northwes~ , ',',',' Christian <=o,llege~,,~4} Outenperg~Co~eg~~ " " J , . ,.', ",' , , . I ..~ ,.,' . . ,"/ . Page 44 ECONorthwest September 2009 Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis : ' C'hapter,4, ',': ,. ",' ~ . .. .... Land Demand and.. .. Sit~ N~edsjnSpringfield .... , "J ;;, ", ,",' I:, , " l' ~ ~ : : ' . > ,,' . ' , ' > " , : OAR 660~o(i9 r~q~ire~ Ci,ti~s to, ~~intaill ~:20-y~~r '~v~ntory ~i sites'",' desi~ated for employment~ To prov~de' for at least' a 20-yeai',8upply' of , ,commercial andmdustdal s~b~'s co~sistent with local ~ommunity , , ,development objectives, Springfield needs an e~timate of the amount of ',' comm~rcia1 ~d industriall~d ,that will be nee~ed o~er th~'planning , ':period~ J)em~~fQr commercia,l and ~dustrialland wMil?~ dihre'ri by'th~,' " ,e,xpansion,~,d relocation ofeXistlng busmess~s an<i newb~~in,ess,e,~ " , '" " ,", " locating- ~Sprmgfie~d. The leve~, 9fthis pusin,~ss 'e~p~ion 'atfi.vity,~an b~ '" , "measured by,employ~e,~~ g~?:rth 41.~pringfi~ld~ ~, ' ' l': "P:()TENTIAt.GROWTHJN'DlJ'STRIES', ' ", , " . . . . , I) ,', "~analysi~ pi grow~mdus~ies k SpriIlgfieici ~h~uld ~Qdr~s~tw6 ma~, , "q~estions: ,(1) WNc~,ind~shl~s:ar,e'IIlost1ikely to be ~tttasted to the ' , ,E~gene-Spr~gfie~d area7 and,. (2)Wh!cl1. iI1d~strles best meet ~pringfield's ~conbffiic ,objectives? The types of ilid,ustries that Spri1)gfield 'wants to ,attract hav'e the foJ)owmg attributes: ~gh-wage, stablejobs ~ith benefits;, ", ' , jobs requiring skilled aJ:ld. ~~illed labor; employers ~ a range of ' ind~stries that wpl coritribriteto a diverse economy; and irldustries that are compatible' W~th Springfield' s co~iInity values. ' I ,: KEY TRENDS AFFECTING EMPLOYM~NT G'ROWTH Previous chapters reviewed historical growth trends ~y industry in the Eugene-Springfield Region and Lane County since 1980 and employment in Springfield. A review of key historical trends in employment in the Eugene-Springfield Region can help identify potential growth industries in Springfield. In other words, economic opportunities in Springfield are a function of regional historical trends arid future economic shifts. While nearly all sectors of the economy in the Region experienced growth over this period, some sectors grew faster than others, resulting in a shift in the distribution of employment by sector. Key historical trends include in the 1980 to 2007 period include: . A substantial increase in the share of employment in Services, which increased from 23% to 42% of covered employment in Lane County. Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis September 2009 ECONorthwest Page 45 .- I; , ill, i A decrease in the share of employment in Retail Trad~, ~6m 21 % to 13 %. ~e number of jobs in retail did not '~~cre~se st1?~~tially :' 'ov~r the 27~year pe!iod ( alQs~ of n~arly 550 re~U jobs)but growth ,'iP'r,eta~ j9bs lag~~d ~e~d gi~Wth~I(~ther sest?!s,:,~specicWY, ,': :serirlCe sectors.:,", ,;" ,', /~", , '",'", ' .' '! l " ',' ,";_ , ", ,", . ",' e " , ,e A, decline in 'the"shat~, cof~mpl:~y~~~t in "iv1;ain#acturing, which fell ' , from'20% to 13% b,f covered 'employment.' ' , ' , . " , ' .. A ~eclineintheshare of employme'nt'mGoverirm~nt",which ~ecreas~d fr.()lll,20% to 16% ()f covere<:l,e~pl~rJ;rlept Tog~~er; ~~se sec'torstepresent about 84% <?f eJ:Pploy~e~t ~ :the, County.:: Other se,c~ors of th~ ~ounty' s ~con6my hav~ a'r~l(:itive,ly sta.ble'and smaIJ :.. 'share?f ~e"to~tY',~ ewploYlp.~nt.,',,' ' , " '",,,' ,', " '. ' .' , ' .. , ".' '.,." ' . , . '. ~ . .' , ". ," -' . , " ,', 'lfi.st()J;i~al, employrrient t:r:~n~~ sho~'a' su~s~tlal shif! in th.~ Region~~, , '"econqtily that mrrfb,red'shiftsin the State and:natio1i.aletono~ies,,; speci#ca~y"the subs~ti(llgrowth'in :?ervices and dec~e of " , , 'MClliufacturmg. Whi1e~ese trends arE~ e~pecte.d:to cOl,ltinue ipto'the " fuhir~"fu~e shiftsaren9texpected tobe,as'dtama'p.c,as those", ' , exp~rienced ov~r'thepasf.twenty years. ',There' are several reasonsJor this ' expectati911 (~~g., '~at"the '~ture ,:"illbe somew~at different thatthe pa~t): ,e, G~~~th in the Services s~ctor has, mattired, and'should track more "closely. with ,overall employment and popuhition growth tath~r than continuing to gain a substantia~ share of total employment. e ' The decline in ManufactUring was due, in part, to decreased timber harvests 'and the outsourcing' of production to facilities in countries with lower costs. Timber harvests are expected to level off and , increase in the future as commercial forests that were replanted since the 1970sgrow to a harvestabie size. While outsourcing will continue, much of what can be outsourced has already gone. Remaining Manufacturing firms are tied to their region to be near supplies or markets, or manufacture specialized goods were small production quantities, fast turn-around times, and the need for quality limit the ability to outsource. e The mix of Manufacturing jobs in the Eugene-Springfield Region changed over the past twenty years with declines in Wood Products and the growth of employment in Recreational Vehicle (RV) manufacturing, machinery manufacturing, metals manufacturing, and high-tech industries, such as Computer and Electronics Manufacturing. Page 46 Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis ECONorthwest September 2009 ! ' . ' BUSINESS CLUSTERS IN SPRINGFIELD ' " ' , , .' :, ,- One way to asse~s the types of busmess~,s that are ~ely, tb'h~ve f:u~re , gro,wth in ';ill area is ,toexa:mine,:relati~e;corcentrat;i:on and. 'employment " ,~o\y~, 'of, ~xi~t;mg lj~sine~,ses:, 11Us me'thOcl'of 'analysis c~ ~elp ,4eter~~ ,r,eia,tib~hip~ ~d ~ages, \vithin,in;~dy~tries, al~o called'~dusttial ~," ", " ' ", c,lustets. Sectors tha~~~~,~ghlY:fP~centrated,(mealling there are mo~e " than the II average" nu~ber, <?f businesses in a sector in a given 'area) and havel1ad ,high employment growth are likely to b~ successful industrial cluster. Se~tors with either 'J;righconcent;ratiol1 of b:usinesse~ or'irigh, emploY~,ent group m~y be part of an emer~g cluster, with potential.for future growth., , ' ,,',,' ' , The se'ct<?r~'withlli~ tnbst growth'pbtentlal (identifledm Ch~pb:~~'?) are: ' , Real~ and SocIal 'AssishUl~~; Admi:rlistrati~e'''and Support;Cprl,struction; , ',: " "Mld'}\cco.imrtod~tionSand Fo()~,Serykes. Other,s~cto!S with.gro~th' " , ':opport:ullities' are: :Arts;Entertaiiune~t,~d,'Reci'~ation~,Management of" ',' ~~InPaw~s an4 Ent~rprises; Pr6.fe~siona!, SCie~tifi~, aIld Technic~l " " '.,' Setvites;~dPijyat~ EducationalSenikes. ' .. ' , ,':. , >, '. >>, .,' . - .' '; . .' . , . 'I ':Table 4-J '~hows existing and, potenti~ busmess chisters:'in Springfield. , The,c.lusters,~denti#ed,41T~ble 4~1,~re'bas~d oriemployme:rjt trends, , , , Sprmgfield' s compar~tive advaritages,' the QED's employment f()re~as,t f~r' , Lane County, the types, offirms tlla(haveconsidered locating in" " ' " , , 'Spririgfield, and analysis of 'existing and developmg busiriess clllsters ih )" Spririgfield and ,Lan,e CountY~ , , , , , , " , ' Table 4-1. Existing and potential business ~Iusters In Springfield Cluster Er:nployment Potential. Secondary Site Needs Employment Medical Associated with RiverSend: Associated with RiverSend: Small sites (2 acres or Services . 3,400 new jobs in 2008 Medical Services and less) on the RiverSend Additional medical Suppliers Campus or in the services Research and Education Gateway area Additional services Non-medical office space Small sites (2 acres or less) distributed in Employment at a new Services like retail, neighborhood or McKenzie-Willamette restaurants, financial community commercial Facility, if the Hospital services, etc. centers opens a new facility in Springfield over the planning period Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis September 2009 ECONorthwest Page 47 Cluster Employment Potential , ' '" .smail Scale Growth potential depends' ~anufaCturing' 9n 'firms ,c,~d05irig ,to locate , :: ' ',", "',' ',' .:< :ir) ~i)r,in~f~e~d.: " , , : ' > , . TYP~s of'fir~s inslude:: , , , ',~bfgan'i~ food proc~sSing., ,. C9ttage industrie,s,'such . as jewel,ry, ,apparel, ',or' , perso~al care products , . Plastics'manUfacturing , , 'Call Centers ' GroWth potenti~1 depends , cmfi[!'l1s'cho()sing to ,locate" , in ~pringfield. Eugene 'a~~ ,', Spiingfield'hav$ adva'ntages for c3ttr,acting call ce'n~ers ' . t;>ecauseofthe'pool of ,." , ;, trafned~all' t~nter',wdrkers'. '. ',\:;' Back~ffice FU,~ction~ : Tourism High-tech Wood Products ; , . Grov.ithpotential depends',' 'on'"firtn~'choosing to I~c~te', in~pri~gfield. Th~~eis 'a ,lot of national competition for these functions. . " Growth potential depends 'on h,olding events in the ' Eugene-Springfielq area:' that attract visitors.' ' GroWth ~ay also depend on development of ' infrastructure to attract and serVice visitors, such as hotel~ or outdoor activities. Growth potential depends on firms growing locally or choosing to locate in Springfield. Types of firms include: . Software development · Computer electronics · Computer service providers · Data centers Growth potential depends on the international demand for wood products. The existing wood products and paper manufacturing cluster may be diminishing. , Secondary, ': , E~ploym~,~t' Ma~ufacturing 9f felate~ ,or co~p.lenilentar~ p,ro~ uCts, Additional' 5"1al'l scale ma~ufa~tu'ririg '" Back-office functions for:',: ". ~,ornpanie,swith call, cent~rs :: . Services like retail, ., n~stau:rarits';fin~n9ral servi~es, et~.: ' ' " ' , .. ',' 'I, ' r. . Site Needs .sjtes oriind!Jstr,ial land, 'in bu'sin'es~parks",or,in ' co'mmercicil areas.:$ite siies may range from less' than 1 ',acre :to 1'0 acres. 'Space in commerCial buildings , Fi~m5,m~y need ~ range of site sizes.. ' ranging fr9m few~r . , than 5 acr~s to ~b9ut' ~Q 'c;lcres: Some 'firms .' " may uS,e,exi~tiri'g 'office s'pa~~~ " Space in c()~mer~ial,' : b,uildings" , . Most ~rms are likely to . need sites of 5 a'cres or , smaller or use existing offic~'~pace Site, ne~ds range from ' sites of less than ,1 ' acre in,existing .' developme,n~s to larger' sites (5 acres or mor,e) for hotels Site needs range from sites of 1 acre or less in existing developments to large sites (50 acres or more) for large existing businesses or data centers. Site needs range from sites of 2 acres or less to industrial sites of 20 acres or more Page 48 ECONorthwest September 2009 ,Rel,ated back-office functions' (if aflu~tT'r'grows) , ,Services like retail, '.. , restaurants, 'financial :,~e'rVicesJ. etc. , $ervic~s like hotels, retail, rl3staurants, arts and entertainment, etc. Service and materials providers Services like retail, restaurants, financial services, etc. Services like retail, restaurants, financial services, etc. Draft: Springfield Economic OPPGrtunities Analysis " , Cluster Employment Potential , Secondary ,',~mploymen~ ' , , ~elated. biote~~ firm~' ' :'" Suppliers'or other: ':: ; ," ,spec!alized service pr?viders' Site Needs Biotech , , Growth 'potential depends' 'on firms choosing to locate in SpringfIeld. There'is a lot ' of national competition 'for " t~esefi'rms..< ,< ",:: i ','::< :~" , 5,pringfield has advantages', ' "in attra,cting the:se fi'rms', because of the University of Oregon's Biotech ,Program,' ptesen~e of I nvitrogem, 'and,' , national 9rowth in, the ' ' industry. ' " ,Site needs rangefr~m , sites 1 acre ',?r'less :to' ' la'rge,sites 'of2,Q ,acres ,or more.,' " " '",:"" , TAR:GET ,lNt)U~STRIES ' , ,.' . ' ',', .." .... ," . , ',"', :rhe charad:eri~~cs of~prirtgfield~ c#f~ct the ,types 6f~~smesse~most , '," like,ly t~ 16cClt~ 'in Springfi~ld;:.spririgfi~ldj S a~~but~sthat fi\ayattr(ict :',', " ' ,,' :fiI-msar,e,: the City"s prd'XiIriity ,t9 I-5,Ng}{'qualio/ Of)ife(pr~Ximio/!o,'the ":,' Uniyersio/:bf9rego~,thepr~se~,c~ 'of th~ RiverBend 9at?pus,P9sitive" ' "busip~ss c~ate, ayailab,ipty ,of skilled arid ~emi-skiJ1ed ~abo~('~~, " proximitY to'il;14oor 'and outdoor recreational opportunities. The types of ,bu~inesses t4at'~aybe~ttractive to ~pringfieid ~clu~e: ' , . ,Me~icalServ~ces. The development of a medicCiI cluster at " ,Riv~rBend preserits an opportUirity to attra~t medi~al firms~ medical research finns, and other professional serVices~ ' "PeaceHealth is in' the process of ~ttracting these firms, through development of a research-oriented relationship with' QHSU and the University of Oregon. The possible siting of a n~w facility for McKenzle- Willametle Medical Center in Springfield presents additional opportUnities for attracting medical services and employment in healthcare. . Services for seniors. Springfield's growing population of retirees or near retirees, may attract or create demand for health services that provide services to older ,people, such as assisted living facilities or retirement centers. These facilities may prefer to locate in relatively close proximity to RiverBend. . Manufacturing. Springfield's attributes may attract small scale manufacturing firms (e.g., firms with fewer than 50 employees). Springfield may also be attractive to large manufacturing firms, provided that land is available for development. Examples of manufacturing include medical equipment, high-tech electronics, Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis September 2009 ECONorthwest Page 49 J, . . ~; ~ : , ' , , , . ,.' " ' I." , .. ' ',,:,' , , . . . " II I' recreational equipment, furhi~re mf;lIlufacturing, specialty apparel, and other specialty manufachirm&. :": ' ';, o;~ !:CaI1 C~nt~r~. ~e e~$,ting\:o~ll ~~nter cl~~ter,th~y ~~,ftt:~ct ~~ll,~enters' , .~o '$prfi:1gf~eld., The potential for growth' m 'call :~~~te!s ~ tile" ,; , : : ': ' ,,'~~geri~~Spr~gfie~~ a!ea' will bed~pende~t bf~the ~vcWability,'t~f ',:,sJdll~d labor ~ :',: · : Back-Office ,fu~ctions~ Spdn~el~'~ hig4 qU,allty" of life and relatively'low wages' may attract bac~~office ftIDctions, 'such~.s the,' LeviStrauss financial center hi Eugene. ~~ck-offic~ ~ctions : ~clude ,administrative ftlll~tio~'~llthas' a.cc9unting qr ~6rwatio:n ' ",teclulology'.,The potential for '~9wth:ill back~offic;e /unc,ti~ns 'may , b~ limited;by,pati,onal c6~petiti()n for thi~type oremp,loyment. " :Spr~gfie~d l!laY lJe more siIc~~~~ful ~t'attr~c'ting'b~c~-office ',' ,,' ,,' " " fu~ctio~.f9r ~rms thCitha"e,'a 'rea~on to'locate in~e'Re~i9p.,such , " : "~'~ fiiIns~~~CorporClte heCl,~q~art~rs o~t:he '''Yes~,<:o:~st"or tiI;~lS "'that,~o, a ~ubstant:ia1. ain,btintof busiilessin the:Willallle~eV~lley. , ' , '\. \ ",,: ._' J " " ,,:' ';,.", " ' .' , " ,: j', ',,' '>: , ' ',', ? ' ,," ',' , .' ',', " "~," Totiri~m. 'Visiion;,may heafuac1~~dt(),~prnigfi~id to ,ta~e"adv~ta,ge, ,'(~f r~c~eational opportunities and other a~enities~ Tl:1ey'may also l?e , ,attracte<;l~s a result ~f regional events, s~chas the, Olympic Track: , ,and Field tri~ls, theqr~gon CountiyFair; or the l.Jniyersity,bf 'OregollBach F~stiva1. Industries that serve touristsi,su~h a~ food '. serVices and,'accommodations( are likely. to 'grow if tourism 'in,cr~ases" · Specialty Food Processing. Springfield's proXimity to 'agricultural , resources may make the City attractive to specialty food processirtg , firms, such as those that specialize in organic or natural foods ,or wineries. · High-Tech. Springfield's access to highly educated labor, access to comparatively inexpensive electricity, and high quality of life may make Springfield attractive to high-tech firms. The types of firms that may be attracted to Springfield range from high-tech manufacturing to data centers to software development. · Professional and Technical Services. Springfield's attributes make it attractive to businesses that need access to educated workers and want a high quality of life. These types of businesses could include engineering, research, and other professional serVices that are attracted to high-quality settings. Page 50 Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis ECONorthwest September 2009 , I I. :. I I I " I; . Springfield's reputation ~s' a b~~e~collar community may present challenges in afua~ting ~~se types of businesses. Receh~, ~ends and eff9rts by tl1eCity'su'ggestth~:r~puta~op. as a,b~ue-~oU~t: '., , , _ ' , ~ .l '0 . ; . _"', " '. . - - '0 '-. c()mmunity i~ ip tJ:i~ process, of c4anging. The ~~ty' Can facili~te this ~~ange to/d~gh,htiilding of (of theinedical cl~~t~r fo~m~g at::' ':',., Rive~Beitd and thiotigh promoting Spring<<~ld~s a g6od' pl~G~' t9 ", , locate professIonal s~rvice firms. ,', ", ' " " , .,' ~, , .' ' .' Gre~n bus'inesses. There is no clear definitio~ ~f what constit:u'tes' ~ '. green industry orbusiriess. In' gene~al, green businesses are ,those ' . th~t produce'prod~cts or services that irilp~ove or maintain .' , . enviionment~Ll q~~Hty,~s desc:rib,ed ~ AppendiX A: Opportunities', ' . ,(~r enviiohm~I.lta~y co~scious i?usinesses ~re grow~g. The ,types of . " ~een bus~esses that'inaycho<l,~e tolo~a~eo~:expancl in,$pringfi~ld' . 'includes: green c~~b;ucti9n furils (e~g., ~Iris that ~se LE~Q-, ' , certiped building 'pradices)" organIc f~od processi:ii:g" sus~hlaple . , : ,'log'ging all,dj pr lumber produc'~.inanufac~ing,: or a~te~ative', ". enetgy pro<;ljlcij.on (e~g., man~~c~ring sol':lr,p~elsor bio.Juels) " .' .: ' " ',..;. . . , " " ',. Corporate Headquarters. Springfield's quality, of life, location ' , aIong 1-5,"ancl av~ilability, of edu~ated worker~ ITl(iy 'mak~ '. . , Springfi~ld 'afuactive as a place to 19catecoq)orateheadquarters~ ' . . These ~aJne qualities,',com,bined w~th the ':!eta.tiv'ely l~wcdst of · semi-sk~ed labor and cluster of ta.ll ~ente.ts~ make Springf~eld , 'afuactive as a place to locate back~office functions, ~uch 'a's call, ' centers. '. Services for R,esidents~ Population growth will drive development of retail and governinent services, especially education, in , Springfield. . Government and Public Services. Springfield will continue to be the location for institutions such as: Springfield City Services, State services such as the Department of Motor Vehicles and Oregon Department of Transportation offices, the Springfield School District, and the Springfield Utility Board. EMPLOYMENT FORECAST To provide for an adequate supply of commercial and industrial sites consistent with plan policies, Springfield needs an estimate of the amount of commercial and industrial land that will be needed over the planning period. Goal 9 requires cities identify" the number of sites by type reasonably expected to be needed to accommodate the expected employment growth based on the site characteristics typical of expected Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis September 2009 ECONorthwest Page 51 "!I' I, [" J: ; " uses." The number of needed s!tes is dependent on the site requirements of emvloyers. The es~ate of l~nd need is presented in the site ne~ds iqlaly~if? in the next sec~ori. , , , I?~mand fo! cQ~~erciai and,~dristriall~d wilrb~,d#v~~ by,~~ " . " : 'expansion and r~loc~tion of existing businesses and new bUf?ip.e~ses ' , ", locatirig in Springfield. Th~ level of this busin~ss expansion acti'tity cap be ,:.' , measured by employment growth in Sprin~eld~ 'Dris section pres~nts a; , , projection offutur~ employment levels m Springfield fo~ 'th'e purpose of ',estimC:l~g demand forcom~erctaland ~dustrialland.' ' ' , Appendi~ ,C P!esen~ the pr<?cess used to arriyeat the employment ' forecast for Sp~ingfield. Table 4-;-2 shows that ~mployinent isfore,cast to ,groW- bY13,440 ~mployees(a3i% increase) befu;een 2010 and 2030. , ' '" , , . . I " '. , . ~ . . , . > , , . , ra~IE!.4-2. ~mploymer.-t,gro~tJ, in' Springfield'sU9.B" ~O,1 O~2~40. ", :, /, "T()~al., , , .' Yea'';' ,Emplpyment ' , 2008 '41,133 , 2qlO. " ',42,284' 2030,' , ,55,724 ' , ,2030, ' ,55,724 2031 56,'49.8 2032 , 57,283 , , 2033 58,079 ' 2034 " 58,886 2035 59,704 2036 60,534 ' 2037 ' 61,375 2038 62,228 2039 63,093 2040 63,970 Change 2010 to 2030 Employees 13,440 Percent 320/0 AAGR 1.40/0 Source: ECONorthwest 1" ,I' " " )' " ,., , Springfield is part of the regional economic center in the Eugene- Springfield region. The ratio of population to employment will decrease from 1.6 people per job to 1.5 people per job between 2008 and 2030. This change shows that employment will grow faster than population in Springfield, suggesting that some Springfield will continue to have employees who commute from Eugene or other cities in the region. Table 4-3 shows the forecast of employment growth by building type in Springfield's UGB in 2030. In 2010, a total of about 60% of Springfield's Page 52 ECONorthwest September 2009 Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis 1111'.1: If; , II - I:,.! employment is in ,office and other services' building types. About 18 % is in retail, 15% i~ in g~neral industrial and 7% IS in warehousing and distribution. ' , . " , . . :. : . . . - > T~ble 4-3. Forecast of e,mploYrTlent growtli in:by bliil,d,ing ~pe, " Sp~ingfieldUGB,201 0-2()30 . ',>.'.: '> ',' ,,' '> > 2010 2030 C~ange ~~f ' %of, 2010 to Building Type Employment Total Employment Total 2030 Industrial Warehousing, & Distribution . 2,954 7.00/0 3,~43 6.00)0 389 ,General Indus~rial 6,457 15.30/0 7i523 13.50/0 1,066 ,Commercial I , , Office 12,56,1 29.70/0 17,274 3 LO% ,4,713 ' Retaii .7,709 18~2~/0 9,752 ' l?:S~/o 2,043 Other Services 12,603 :29.130/0 17,832 '.32~00/0 5,229 Total ., , . " . .42,284 ' 100.0% ,55,724 100~0% ' .13,440' , . . Source: ECONorthwest . Note: Green shading denotes ~m assumption by ECONorthwest , , '.' . Note: The forecast assumes that the share of employmemt in other services' building types will increase by about2.2% O\~er the 20-year period. We expect that medical employment will grow faster than government employment. based on historical trends that show government accounting for a decreasing' share of ' employment and the growing medical Cluster in Springfield. ., . , " ' ' ,The forecast in Table 4-3 a'ssumes that Springfield will have growth m all cate'gories o.f employment. It also assumesfucit the share of employment , will increase in other services (2.2% increase in share) arid office (1.3% increase in share). At the same time, the share" of employment will decrease in general industrial (1.8% decrease in share), warehousing arid distribution (1.0% decrease in share), and retail (0.7% decrease in share). The rationale supporting these assumptions is presented in Appendix C. SITE NEEDS OAR 660-009..:0015(2) requires the EOA identify the number of sites, by type, reasonably expected to be needed for the 20-year planning period. Types of needed sites are based on the site characteristics typical of expected uses. The Goal 9 rule provides flexibility in how jurisdictions conduct and organize this analysis. For example, site types can be described by plan designation (i.e., heavy or light industrial), they can be by general size categories that are defined locally (i.e., small, medium, or large sites), or it can be industry or use-based (i.e., manufacturing sites or distribution sites). Firms wanting to expand or locate in Springfield will be looking for a variety of site and building characteristics, depending on the industry and specific circumstances. Previous research conducted by ECO has found that while there are always specific criteria that are industry-dependent Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis September 2009 ECONorthwest Page 53 II ' - ;,il !i: I~ , ,II Iqlr ,~ i;!' L and specific firin,'many firms share at least a few common site criteria. In general, all ,firms ne~:~ sites t:h~t are ~,e~ativ~ly flat, free of nab1,ral or r~gulatory, constra~:ts on deve~opm~nt, with gqoq transpo!tatio:t;l access ,', ' aIld ~9-~quate publlc's~rvice,s,~:r1t~ ~xact,a~o~t, qualitY;,an~,~e,I~tiye " '! 'importance of these' factors vary,:aDiong differ~nt tYpes qffirm~.' ThIs ,," ~ection discusses the site requirepientS for firms ~'indu~tr~e$ with gt:q\vth potential in the Eugen~-Sprip.gfieki 'Regio~, ~s, lnd~cated ,by',the; ,qr~gon Employment Departm~nt fore'cast (see Table ,A-12'in Appendix A for the , regional for~~ast): ' . . '. , , Appendix C discu~ses, th~ pro~uctive fa~tois' tltat affe~t busiri~'ss" , 'location~ decisions and th~ ~plicationsQf these factors for'busin~ss~s that ~ay loca~e, ip',Spring~~ld. The?ppepdix~~~o'di~,c~sses th~ ' " " :ch~rac~~rlstlcsof, &itesp.e~cled to accomITL6date ,e:mployme~~,'growth and" , Springfielq'sabilitY to p~ovicl:e:~~t~~ ~ith t4es,e c~ara~t~ris~c'&'." ,~: ' " L6'f;.JG'~ T~RMLAND Ar.JD SITE"N~E,b~,:" Apperid~x C presen~ the prbces~for tonv~rtiTlgbetween th~, ~mplQyment 'forecast to sit~ needs. Table4~4;presentS the estimate of need,ed sites by: ' ", site size and type o{bul1ding~ 1?e tes:u~tS sho.~ that~Springfiel4 needs " , approximately 371 sites. 'Most sites are's~all, 2-~cres or ~es~~ Sp~ing#eld needs approximately 8 sites larger than'20-:-a~res. ' , I "T,able 4-4. Estimated needed 'site,s' by 'site size and building type, , Springfiel~, 2010 to 2030 ' Site Size '(acres) Greater Less Total Building Type than 1 1 to 2 2to 5 5 to 20 20 to 50 than 50 Sites , Warehousing & Distribution 3 5 1 9 General Industrial 5 7. 10 11 3 3 39 Office 100 20 20 5 1 146 Retail 70 15 10 4 99 Other Services 50 18 5 5 78 Total 225 60 48 30 5 3 371 Source: ECONorthwest The identified site needs shown in Table 4-4 do not distinguish sites by comprehensive plan designation. It is reasonable to assume that industrial uses will primarily locate in industrial zones. Retail and service uses could locate in commercial zones, mixed use zones, and residential zones. SHORT-TERM SITE NEEDS Springfield has four large-scale development plans currently Underway: RiverBend Node, Marcola Meadows Node, the Glenwood Riverfront Node and the Downtown District Node. RiverBend, Marcola Meadows Page 54 Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis ECONorthwest September 2009 and Gle~w90d Riverfront District have approved master plans and are available for immediate development. In addition, th~ C~ty is currently 'deyelop'~g ,~ Downt~\V~ District Plan and I~ple~entation Strategy to facili~t~ anq ,p~o:r,note d9W"nto~n redey~l~~~~pt. ' · RiverBend Node. ~eaceHealth"s ma~ ~ospitai ~t'RiverBend' opened in August 20.08. The relocation ~r e~p~ion 'of other medical firms to the RiverBend campus is 'un4~rway. Irladdition to ,these uses" PeaceHealth, plans further develop~entof the, ' RiverBend ~ampus, which is' about 72 acres in size. Other uses may , in~lud~ a mixture of residential development, office and commercial support services, retail, arid education~l and resem;ch , fuJlctions to support colla1;>oraijons ~ith Oregon Health Services' ,Universityand,theUmversity of Oregon~ Studies for~e Riv~rBend' , master plan iI1dicated, ~at therelnay be demand for additional " office development (4DP,DOD.,.5DD,DDD,square fe~t)and conimercia~ " , reta~ serv~c~s (?D ,0.0.0.' to 70. ,DQO square feet). , , , , " , . 'Marcohl Meadows Node. Marc6la Meadowsis a proposed mixed-:- use project located on 'a vacant 10D"7acreparcel in Sprir1-g~eld~ The project is expected to include about ~9psingleunitdetac~ed homes, about 120. townhouses, about 120. homes in ~partffients, and 54 homes for senior living. The total proposed land requ~ement of the residential vil~ages would, be 39 acres. Marcola Meadows is also expected to ~ave commercial development, anchore'd by a Lowe's Home Improvement store, and including professional offices and retail. The commercial development will occupy about 44 acres, have more than 40.9,0.0.0. square feet of built space, and require more than 1,20.0. parking spaces. The remaining land in the development will be used for common open space and streets.15 . Glenwood Node. Glenwood currently has a mixture of residential, commercial, and industrial zoning, with areas that are underdeveloped or undeveloped. Glenwood's current development pattern is: 83 acres of industrial land, 64 acres of retail, 66 acres of manufactured dwellings, 37 acres of single-family dwellings, and 167 acres of vacant land. Redevelopment of Glenwood is in the planning stages. The 48 acre Glenwood Riverfront Plan District is currently designated for 15 Marcola Meadows Pre Plan. Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis September 2009 ECONorthwest Page 55 i' ,', III Ij:!r Mixe~ Use Nodal Develppment and is available for developm~nt. ,Th~ City is currently updating the Glenw:ood Refinement Plan for , tp.e rest of, ~lert~ood. ~pa~s f~r i'edev~olop~ent jn~ltide dev~l~ping ; ~,' , resi4~ntial, ~mpl,oy;w;n~~t~,d mix~d 1fs~ ~r,eas, providllig'tratjsitipp:' betWe~n'residentiararid'ind~strial areas, and c~pit,aliimg on: ' ' , Glenwood; s loc~ti~:pbetWee~Eug~rie 'and Spdrigfie~d and': ' riverfront larl.d~16 ',:: , " " , :,. '. '. " , ' ; , . 16 Glenwood Refinement Plan. November 1999. Page 56 ECONorthwest $eptember 2009 Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis ~--- Chapter 5 land Capacity and Demand . This chapter provides a brief s~mary of fue)mpl!ca,tlons ofth~econb~ic, opportuirlties nee4s, (illalysls for th~ City ot' Springfield. :rtil~' study loo~ed at econonllc trends and land nee'ds from a r~gi6nal and localperspectiye. , This chapter mcludes a general compa!ison of land supply and demand. The comparis,on of land capacity and demand is followed by a discussion of,the key 'implications, of the EOA for the City of Springfield. ' COMPARISON OF ,LAND CAPACITY AND 'DEMAND > ' , . This section presents ari analysis of land availability 'and capacity for employment uses ill Springfield. Chapter 4 presents an analysis of potential growth industr~es in Springfieldan~ ,the employmept forecast. . .for Springfield. Based on this analysis, Table 5-1 sho,""s a comp'~lfiso~of ' land supplyand'need in tenus of sites by'~ite.size. The resultssh~rwthat. Springfield'has a deficit of about 6 irtdustrial sites and ,44 commercial and , mixed use sites. , ' . ' . Table 5-1. Compari,son of vacant, land supply and, site ,needs, industrial and other employment land, ,Sp~ingfield UGB, 2010-2010' , " . " . J .. . " Site Size (acres) Greater ' Less' " than. 1 1 to 2 2to. 5' 5 to 20 20 to 50, than 50 Total Buildable Land Inventory Vacant Industrial 72 24 20 12 0 0 128 Commercial and Mixed Use 104 14 6 4, 0 0 128 Redevelopable Industrial 122 28 31 5 1 0 187 Commercial and Mixed Use 305 20 15 0 0 0 340 Total Buildable Sites Industrial 194 52 51 23 1 0 321 Commercial and Mixed Use 409 34 21 4 0 0 468 Site Needs Needed sites Industrial 5 7 13 16 4 3 48 Commercial and Mixed Use 220 53 35 14 1 0 323 Surplus (deficit) of sites Industrial 189 45 38 7 (3) (3) 273 Commercial and Mixed Use 189 (19) (14) (10) (1 ) 0 145 Source: ECONorthwest. Converting from the site needs shown in Table 5-1 to an estimate of land needs requires making assumptions about average site sizes needed in Springfield. Table 5-2 shows average site for needed sites in Springfield. Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis September 2009 ECONorthwest Page 57 ,Table 5-2. Average size ,of needed sites, Springfield ,UGB Site Size (acres) , Less - ~ 0 ,Greater?" l .0 ) ,than ,1, 1 tQ 2 > 2 to 5, 5 to 20'20 to,50 thap50 , 0.5 . ,', 1.5 3.0,' 15.0 " ',,' 50..0' ,:100.0 0.3 '," '",1.5,;, ,:3.0 15.0, ,40.0 ' 50.0' , Indu~tri~1 ,:; ," ; Commercial 'and Mixed Use . ," . Source: ECONorthwest . " J )" o ,_.~ '" ' Table 5-3 shows sites needed (from Table 5~i) an:d la:nd :need (based on , , number'of sites neededin'Taple5-1 and ave'rage si~e size in table 5-2). The results show ,that Springfield has a deficit in the current UGH 9f,the, following l~d types ~or the 2010 to 2030 pe:t;~od: , ' , . , , . · , In,d,ustriafla114.~p:ririgfield has '~need for 450 acres of industricll' , lapd on six sit~s.,Springfi~l~ h~sa n~edforthr~e 50 clcresites, and ' need f()rthre~100~cre ,site~.. In ~e cqnt~xt d,fttUs stUdy, industrial ,uses means anYIIlajo! employer thilr''Yould, be ~1l6wedin an , ',' , 'iridustriall~d ~lesi~ation {e.g./,campus indtistrial~,light-medjuiri, mdustriClll~g~t-me<iiuIl:1 ~dustri~l.n:iixed ~se>~eavy mdustrial, ,or" , ~pecia!hea:vY,~'4~~trial). ',' ,'''" ' · Commercial s~tes.,Springfi,eld has ane~(f,f~r 261 ~cres of" " cODl~ercialland, o~ 44 sites. Springfield's commercial site needs, ' 'range ,from sites i ,to 2'acres in size tq ,one sHe tha'tis 40 acres ip. size. " , ' , t '" Table 5-3. Comparis,on of employmeritland supply and site' needs, Springfield UGB, 2010-2030' " , " Site Size (acres) 'Less' Greater than 1 1 to 2 2to5 5 to 20. 20 to 50 than 50 Total Industrial Sites needed none none none none 3 3 6 land need (acres) none none none none 150 300 450 Commercial and Mixed Use Sites needed none 19 14 10 1 0 44 land need (acres) none 29 42 150 40 0 261 Total sites needed none 19 14 10 4 3 50 Total acres needed none 29 42 150 190 300 711 Source: ECONorthwest The summary of land needs in Table 5-3 shows Springfield's land need for all sites of all sizes. One of the City's economic development strategies is to encourage redevelopment, especially in Downtown and Glenwood. Table 5-1 shows that Springfield concludes that 187 industrial sites and 340 commercial and mixed use sites would redevelop to address land needs over the 20-year period. In addition to this assumption about redevelopment, Springfield concludes that all land needs on sites smaller than five acres would be accommodated through redevelopment. The City Page 58 ECONorthwest September 2009 Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis :r il, I" h~d a deficit of 23 commercial and mixed use sites smaller than five acres, which would require 71 acres of land (Table 5-3). ' , , Table 5-4;shows Springfield's empl?yment l,and need< ass-q.ming that all , site needs for sites smaller than five acres woUld 'b~ addressed through redeye~opm~nt. ,Springfield ,has tlie ~eed for appro'xlmately six' , " ' ' industrial sites on 450 act~s 'and eleven commercial and mixed use sites on about 190 acres that cannot be acco~odated within the existing UGB .over the ,2010 to 2030 ,period: Table 5-4. Employment site and land needs, Springfield UGB,2010- 2030 'Site Size (acres)" " Less ,',',', ,,' ,,', f3reater than5, 5 to, 20 ,20 to 50 than 50 :, Total, Industrial Sites ne~ded, " Land need, (acres~, ' Commercial,'and Mixed Use Sites ne~~ed ", Land need (acres) , Total sites needed Total acres 'needed Source:'EC'oNorthV>lest ' none 'none' 'none' none, , , ' 3 150 '3 300 6 450 , 11' 190 " ,17" ' 640 none, none , none , none 10 150 \: 10 , .'150 ,1 40 4 190 'none ,none, '.3 ", 300" The data in Table 5-3 address employment needs on vacant and partially, vacantland. Some employment in Springfield will not require new hmd ' but will locate on land that is currently used. ECO assumed that 24% of employment (more than 3,200 new employees) would not require any vacant land. This would include employment that will locate in residential areasas well as employment that will locate on land that is already classified as developed because employment uses in some built spaces may intensify. In addition, Springfield identified economic development strategies of encouraging redevelopment in Downtown and Glenwood. ECO assumed that all commercial and mixed use land needs on sites smaller than five acres would be accommodated through commercial redevelopment. The City had a deficit of 33 commercial and mixed use sites smaller than five acres, which would require 71 acres of land (Table 5-3). Springfield assumes this need will be accommodated through redevelopment of existing commercial land. CHARACTERISTICS OF NEEDED SITES The Goal 9 Administrative Rule (OAR 660-009) requires that jurisdictions describe the characteristics of needed sites (OAR 660-009-0025(1)). The Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis September 2009 ECONorthwest Page 59 'l ,,' i II q I ; .' I' ':~:!! , ~ ' i ' . '.. ' . . ", '. The site n~~ds cfu~lysis in c:hapter 4identifi~ci stteneeds infiye Wpe~ of . buildings::Wareho~sing and diskibution; geperal ~ind,.ttstrlal; office, retaii, , . .'.. ,aridotherserYice~~1be'thar~cteri~tics ~f needed ~ites fareach tifthese':',: . . " , '.' : ,', btiildfugt,yp~~ aredesc#bed, beio'V ~,All~it~s~ill~eed ,a~c~s~ t() elec.tTicity~ " .'. ' ,p~ore~,and~gh-s~eedJ~I~coD:lirluni~a.ti9n~.,. ", ,,' , '~ ' \ ~ , ,'VVAREHq:U:SIN'c;':AND':DI:~tRIButI6'N. . .Th~ sife:Ile~ds analY'~is('rable4-~)identifieda need forsixsiteslarger' ., . . ,than. five a<;:res'Jor ware~ousing ,alld distributioll. Based ,on the all-aly~i~ of ' "l~d ~vpplyand site needsin Table ,5-:1; Springfield 'will n~ed one site for ~are~ous~g ,and dIstribution ,over the: 2010-2030 p~riod~17 " .' .' ' ': , .' Site size. Spr~gfield 'w~l need one ,site between 35 and 50 acres.' , · Street access. Warehousing and distribution sites should be locab~d on an arterial street within 1/2 niile of an Interstate 5 interchange.' . the freight traffic from the site should not be routed through '. residential neighborhoods. ' · Topography. Warehousing and distribution sites should be relatively flat with slopes of 5% or less. · Access to services. City services should be accessible to the site, including sanitary sewer, and municipal water. · Land ownership. Sites with a maximum of two owners to minimize the cost and uncertainties of land assembly. · Surrounding land uses. The warehousing and distribution site should be abut compatible uses, such as industrial, business park or commercial uses. The site should not abut urban residential, school or park uses. 17 Table 5-1 shows that Springfield will need a total of six industrial sites larger than 20 acres over the 2010-2030 period. One of these sites will be for warehousing and distribution and five will be for general industrial uses. Page 60 ECONorthwest September 2009 Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis :GENERAL I,ND,USTRIAL The sit~ needs analysis (Table 4-4) ide~tified' an~~d fbt;' 17 s~tes larger than ' , five acres fdr' ge~eral ii;1dusb'ial 'us~s. 'B~s~don' t4e, analY~ls, qf lahq ~upply > ,:an,d s~~e"nee,d~in Tabl~5,~1; Sp~il)g#~J~,'will Ile~d five:sit~s'20 acres~na" ' ,'l~rger fa.r gen~rafindUs1lia16verthe20'ld~2030 period.18 :industri~l sjtes" :in'a)rbe u~~d f,o~"~'rte~fir~'6rfuay,,be 'used for an industri~l park~' toprqvide ' , spa,ce for. multiple;s~aller ,firms~: " " , " ,',' . " " " , · Site s~~e. Spring~eid will need five sites larger than 20 ac're~ fo!' : ,geJ?-eral industri~luse.' :." ' , . , " ,'. . 0" Springfield will need ~o,sitesofappro)(inlat~ly 35 to,: 50 , acres~a,ch~" '. , .' ' , 6 .'., "Sprin~el~,wilJnee~,'~o sites ~',the 80~120acre range and. '~ ; , .':;'~n~',~i~~$in'~~'i~O~2p,R~,:a~r~,r~ge~',.'.." . " '.' ':' · Sfr~et acce~s. Industrial sites shquld be l()~ated ~n cui ~i-'teriai.'street tl1atpro,,!i~esactess to~I~b~r~ta~e.q or ~ghway 1~6 itlterch~g~.'. , '?~~~S should pe n() tpQ!e'th~: on~',~e 'from, an mterchaii~e.;TIle, '" , , "freighttraJficfromjndust!ial sites sh6uldnot be routed throtlgh ,,', ' resic.ien~ai lle!ghporho9d~. , ". ' . . '.. .' .. , ' ' :,' ",,, " '. RalI '~ccess.,Some,iridtistda~,usesm:ay benefit from rail a,ccess, ,', , especially b~siriess~s thaf,ship bllIky, irtexpensive)tel!lsover long' . ~istance.s. Access to ar,ailline, or the pqssib~ty ofdev~16ping 'a rail , " spur, is an~dvantage for some businesses. . Topography. Industrial s~~es should be relatively flat with slopes of not more than 10% slope. > . . Access to services. City serVices should be' accessible to the site~ : including s~tary sewer"and municipal water during the 20-year planning period. . . Land ownership. Sites with a single owner are strongly preferred, to reduce the cost of land assembly. . Surrounding land uses. General industrial sites should abut compatible uses, such as other industrial uses, warehousing and distribution, business parks or commercial uses. The site should not abut urban residential, school or park uses. 18 Table 5-1 shows that Springfield will need a total of six industrial sites larger than 20 acres over the 2010-2030 period. One of these sites will be for warehousing and distribution and five will be for general industrial uses. Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis September 2009 ECONorthwest Page 61 OFFICE :: , ~ "j: RETAIL 'I (t',' I 'I' II I.... 1"-::: , i' , , ~: - The site need~ analysis (Table4-4) i~~:q.~ed, aO'I)e~ci fOt:;~b~ '~i~~~ larg~r ; , tll,an five acr~s for :offic~ uses. 'Basecl On the ,~nalysis of J~d :stipply ,~4 ' _ si~e heeds 'ill'l'ahle 5~llSpting#~14'wilin~~'d ,~ix'~ites 20acr~s ~~ :i~iger ',: '. JO! ,Qffi,~~' oyer:the:'~P10~2099perio'd~ 'Tllese, ~a~'ger office"~ite~'couI4<hav~'~,' " ya!ie'tY of de~elopri;1enttyp~s:,a',carrLpussite for alarge'brismes~;'a..' ',' :' ",,' , bU:sme~s pa!k~ a'mix~d 6ffice'anrl Ught indu~trialpark, or othergronpings of office buildings. " , , ' , '. 'Site size.' Sprmgfieldwill,needfiye'sites ~, to 20 acr~s and one ~ite', 20 and 50 acres for office Jlse~'." ", , , ":0 " Sprmgfield w~l need five sHes,,()f~ppro,xint~tely to t~l~ , ,', ': acres~ach..:, ' ,'" " ':,,:, " , , , " ", "'" " : , ~ ' :'8,.:'$piipgfieidwW~e~4 qhesite:()[ apP~()xYnately' ~pto4b ": ' ," ","~cres.This ,si~e,s~()llJ1be de~icate:~,tpim Qffic~,park~", " ' ','" .. , ,:~treetaccess.,()fficesHfs~h9uldb~~o,cated on an arteri~r()r,k~jo~: ' , ,c<l,llector'~tr~ets'~, Trat~cfrbpt .offic~,sites should notbe T()uteq , " ;: thr'ol1ghre~identiClJnejg~,borhoods." . .; T opograp~y. 6ffic~ ~itesshould be r~l~tively flat slop~s().f~6t .. mo're thcin 15%e." The site needs analysis (Table 4-4) identified a need for four sites larger than five acres for retail uses. Based on the analysis of land supply and site needs in Table 5-1, Springfield will need one site 20 to 50 acres for retail use over the 2010-2030 period. This site is expected to provide , opportunities for large-scale retail development for multiple retail businesses (i.e., a community shopping center). · Site size. Springfield will need one site of approximately 10 to 15 acres for a community shopping center. Page 62 Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis ECONorthwest September 2009 , , " , · Street access. The retail site should be located on ,an arterial or major collector stre~t Traffic ~om th~ site s~o~dnot be l'()uted ~Q~gh r~si~~~ti~l nFigh:~~r4o,0~~~ ' >' < , :>'.., ' ,',;: " :' , ,',.," ,T~p~~~p~:y~ The r,elf-iil 'site should lJ,e re~ati~elyflatwith,:slop~s no: ,';'>' > ,:: ,gr:ea~er ~~J9<X{. ,'",,', ',"i: " ' ;, ,> . , Access to services:City services should be asces~ible to the site, ", , ' inchid~g sanitary sew~r, ~d municipal water during the 20-year planning period~ , ' · L~1.ld ownership'. S~b~s with'itat more th~ two ,oWnerships are """ necessary to t,educe the costanduilcertamty of land ass~mbly~", ' " . , . >,' , \,' > . : : '., . .' '. . . .~ . . ' I " ' ,> ~ , "", . , '. SUtroun(.ling land,~ses~ l{etailu~esare c~inp~tib,le:'iJith office, , , , ,'': ',others~tvi~e~'" indtis~i~tpv~irtess p~tk,:,9thigh-density '!'~sidenti~l 'Uses. ,';, ',', > . >, ; . " ,',~ ,VlsibiIiW. The retail~ite nrllsFbewglllY vi~ible fro~Ilar~erial streets '" , , : "'i,Or Interstate 5,. ' ' , , " , " , , , OTHE'RSERVICES:: " .,' .. "', 1 .: .' ), , , , , ;'1 , " The site nee'~~ analysis (Table 4~4) identffied an~ed fo'r fiv~ sites larger" , ' : than fiv~ acresfotother services~ Based on theanalysi~'of larid,stipplyand" ,'site needs in Table 5-1,.~pringfie~d will need four site~' 20 to 50 acres for, , other services over the 201o.~2030 period. Thesesi~es an~ ,expected'to ',' , , provide opportunities for a wide range of service uses, ~uchas medical,' , . serVices; govel'lUllel}t facilities, 'and education. ' · SIte size. Sprmgfleldwill need four sites of approximately 10 to 15 ' , ',acres each. . Street access. Other service sites should be located on an arterial or major collector streets. Traffic from the sites should not be routed through residential neighborhoods. . Topography. The sites should be relatively flat with slopes of 15% or less. , , I' . Access to services. City services should be accessible to the site, including sanitary sewer, and municipal water over the 20-year planning period. . Land ownership. Sites with two are fewer owners are necessary to reduce the cost and uncertainty of land assembly. . Surrounding land uses. Other service sites uses may be compatible with office, retail, industrial, business park, or high-density residential uses. Draft Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis September 2009 ECONorthwest Page 63 ; The~aiysis of presented irt: ~~:ec<?Ilo~~c OppO~~tle~ ~~lysi~:~as : ' :.,' ,':~pli~ati?nsf6r,Sp,riilgfi~I~,'s ~C;brioml~J~,d.~e~ds~: :,', ,:::'>::,:' ',;:',','< ,,' <;" ";:'~' :,: t:: '""j" ,:' ',',,:;' :,:,', ",;': " ..:::,', ",:,' ',",: ';: , ',' :-:,:' .' , :. ' " "." :~t,o'riQ'~icgrowth: ,Decisiqn,makers an~ comril~iY:'riletri~efsthat' , " ,'patticlpated'iri the economic, opportunities analysis agreed that,:' ec~rtoIi}k "gro1Vth is desjrable 'ov~rfue pl~g period., Th~ " , employment forecast ffidicates ?pringfieldwill ad4 1~,449 new 'emPloyees betW~,en 2010 arid ,20$0 using the QAR 660-024- 'Q040(8)(a)(ii)metbodology. Theecon~mic oppo~tunities a,na~ysis' :assumesthat Springfield wilI' have, employment growth m a wide " " ,'yar~etY.of ~usine~s,es, (to'fus'eryi~es,andtetail for' residents ,to ',' ' ' ,~dustriClldev~i()p~llen~' tC>,~edical ,~eI"Vices: !he ~i~wa.nts 'to.' "~ive,rsuyjts, e~ori9~~~g ~ttr~ct,h1gher 'Y~geaIld. pr~f~'ssi~nal j~l?s~", ".. ' , " ,~, ,,' B~il4a6~~ lands."5priIlgfi~lti,'h~s 3~4i4"~cr~s~ tp~t~r'ed~signatedfor , ind ustrjal;and other eIhplorwerif us~~,!,\bouttw,o~tNrds ,of ,the)ahd ..designated for ~mploym~nt~ithin Sp~~gfieI9' sUGB i~ consid~red" ,de~e~oped an~js not e)(pe,~~edto re'cievelopover t4e ~O year " 'pl~gperiod., Less than 15% {If this'~and}s b~da~le" ' ' , Un<:6hstrained lan4.' The majority of build~ble, unconstramed 'elllployment land in Springfield has existing developmen~ On it that . is exp~cted to redevelop. over the planning period. ,Springfield has' a . hick ()f buildable large sites, with one buildaple site, 20 acres and . larger and 23 buildable sites in the five to' 20 ,acre size range. IMPLICA liONS " 'j . ~ ; , , -;- . ',' ;: J , _,l , :I;' , , lj> r , '1J1 ','. . .',,, . " . ~ ,,"; , II' ;;.' i ~ L1 !I,' );"'1 I: , ' · Employment that will not require vacant land. Springfield 'assumed that 52% of employment would not require vacant employment land.19 Springfield's assumptions about employment that will not require vacant land are as follows: o Fourteen percent of employment (1,918 employees) will locate in non-employment designations. These employees will include people with home occupations, working from home, and businesses that locate in residential or other non-employment designations. This assumption is based on the percent of employment located in non-employment designations in 2006. See 19 The estimate of 52% of new employment not requiring vacant land is based on the assumption that 1,918 employees will locate in non-employment designations, 1,344 employees will locate in existing built space, and 3,669 employees will locate on redevelopable sites. The total number of new employees not requiring new land is 6,931 employees; which is approximately 52% of the forecasted growth of 13,440 jobs. Page 64 ECONorthwest Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis September 2009 , .' " ", , > > ' , ,,". I 1'1:' Appe~~li?< C:~d Table C-7 for more Information about ~s ~s~~mp~<?n., ; > ~ ' 0 ", ' , 1 " " ,J; , : ',' . ' o , Tenp~rc~ht <?fri~w,e~ployment,(1,344,,~~pJoy~es) will " .', ,l~,c~,te 41;existing ~uUt space", B~e Appeh1i~, C ~~<.i"Tab~e"" '" , " '~~7 for Illor~ ~()rmatio!l ap'dj1\ thisassumptl911. " ", ': ':, " , ,:,': ' > ,',' , ' ", , ." > .' ~. . " . ,.. ., ,> ". I , ..: \''- . o:Tw~rity~severi perc~llt 9f new e~ployment.(3,~~9 :,' , "" employees) willlocate 'on redevelop able sites~tal?le 5-l ' , sho~s tha~ Springfi~ld assUme~ 187 industrial sites"and 340 commercial and mixed use :sites 'will redevelop over " the plaill}ing ,period. Theestim~te qf emploY!llenton " ',thes~ si.tes was base,d on ~e average niuriper of ' ' :', , ',e.mp~dye~~ p~r site .bysite,s~e in20~6. ~,e ~~~pter,?f~r ' ':inore infonriatiQn about :redevel()pment as~tqripti.ons~ ' , : .' .. ,.' , - ", , "', ," .-. ' , " .'.., ,." " " , ,:, · ,Re~v~lopmentpoteriti~J<The analysis of'redeve~qpni~nt:'p()te.iltia~',',:" cmd n~ed fO,t empl,oymenf~andassuIlles 'th~t Sp~~gfield;'will ~aye ' '~ubstarttlarre.developinentover' tli~pla~g per~od,'C()nsisten~ ' . with City 'Council policies, the 'areas tilat' are expect~d to have the: , 'mp~t'r~dev~lopme~t (ireiri (;Jen~~?d,esp~ci~Ur~l.<?ng .th,e, , '::" ",' , WillaIIl~!te~iverfronf~d r;r'at#ri/McVaY',corridor ~and ,in th~"" , DowritbWnUrban Renewal District,. 'All}an9. ,deficiencies' for sites ' . smaller than five acres areexpecte,dto' be addressed through . . r~development ofexistirlg sites'. the majority, of retail land needs' ~re ,e~pectedto be addressed W.ough redevei9pment. " ' , ' , . I ' , The City will need to make str~tegic investments that support redevelopment and to continue supporting redevelopment through City plans and policies. ,For example, redevelopment in'the City's ' targeted Downtown and Glenwood areas 'will require substantial investments in public infrastructure to provide public facilities and remove the existing impediments to development. . Need for large sites. Springfield will be able to meet employment land needs on sites five acres and smaller within the existing UGB, through redevelopment, infill development, and employment uses on non-employment land (e.g., home occupations). The employment land needs that may not be met within the UGB are for sites five acres and larger. The City only one buildable site 20 acres or larger. Availability of sites 20 acres and larger is important for attracting or growing large businesses, which are often traded-sector businesses. , If the City does not have these large sites, there is-little chance that the City will attract these types of businesses. While it may not be Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis September 2009 Page 65 ECONorthwest .' : i, . I ,', ,', \' . .\ ;1 ", ," ;1: " , !> I. ,I~' ",' " ':"} , , clear e<<~ctly ~hat the busin~ss opportunities ~ay be in ten to twenty Y~~,t~,it is ~leatthat th~se businesses will nO,tlocat~ in . Springfield if land is ll9ta,yailable ,fQr dev~,lop~ent.F9r example, in ~ ", ,: ire p~~t:tWentY'y~a~~,:~Qstof the'q~fe~ay ar~a'd~y~lop'e~t ,!he' " ;',., .' !~n~aJlasamix. of use~"inslu~ing'~"~egIoti~l~all"ap~rtin~hts/ : """'" ' , :', 9ffices,' and more re~ehtly, the Peac~lje~~th'S:'(lmpus: ,Tw~ntY-y~a:ts, ; , , , ,'~go it would have seeme~ highly unlikely that,PeaceHea1th"would ,,'bu~ldtheirnew facility m $pringfield.If tJ;ie City had not had .' ' . 'desir'able,' serviceable land' available,'PeaceH:e~l~would prbb~bly riot ~~ve:located their new facilityirt:Springfield~ ' · "S~ort-:ferm''zand'supply. l3asedon the Goal 9defini~ori of ,short-term,' , ,"~~d'~upply,~d criteria for ,; ~tl~e~ting't~asibility/,' the.majority . . "~f buildable laild ~itlriri~~,Springfield'U9B i$.partof~eshort~ ' ,teiinJandsupplYi assun:iing,thatf~ding isavaij~l?l~ '~(),~xtend:,< ,', " .' " ',' servic~s. The' G6~1' 9 .rule q.c)esnotaccQlll}tfot lan9. a~ailabilitY i : ,.' '.' ',' " 'stlc~ as ~het4er,th~ jarid9~er ::~s~illir1g :to sell it or~e"9~ne~i$, ",' ". '~~g.to'redeveI6pit. 'I11e'Go~19rl!leal~o"dp~s ilot a.cco~t f?f,' ' '.. ',d.,~ferellces in site chara~~erispc~1 sl!ch as' ~ite'size.As, a res~1t, ' . , '. " -dev~16pers may ];lave difficulty pnd'ing developa.ble lancl'wlfu " '. . , , sp~c#ic s~te characteristics,suc~as '!argesi~e,s ~ithhighwaY(lccess. ' :: -;" , ," l' i '),' ~ , , ': , . " ',.., " Page 66 ECONorthwest September 2009 Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis ';!;': , I I' National, State, County, '~ntl"L'ocal rre,nds: ,', ; '; ~ ' , 1 : , App~n(;lix A , , ' ; " '~>, ' ' ,', >, , 1 " , ;tb1,~a'ppendixsummar~es~~ti~nal, s,mte, ~~Untyt ~419c~1 tr~P<ts ' '> , ' " ,affecting Springfiel,d. It presents a delll?graphic: and soci~et'o~omic profile ' of Springfield (relativ~ to Larie County and Oregon) arid describestr~nds ' ,that will influence the potential for ,economic growth in Spripgfield.This' 'appendix covers receri~, and (:urtent economic c,(j~ditions in the ~ity~ arid, , , ,', f~rec(lsts frO:q1.'th~ Smte Empl,oyment DepartrrH~~~t'for,empI6yn;i~nf growth ' , iliLan~ C?Unty~"1Jtis :ap~endix'meetS:thei?tent of ()~R ~60~009~OQ15(i)., ': ..... .....NAT.I()NAL,STAfE~At-jDREciIQNALtRENPS:. . ' . , "', , . , . ..'.", . , , ,~ " ' " \ " " ' . ' " ',' ,,'NATIONAL.'TRENDS :,1 . I,',', :' ,'. , '~~on?mic,develop,nleIltir\$prirlg~iRld, oyer th~ rie~t hyenty ye~rs',will, ,:. ',' .. occl!tin the 'context of long-run:'natibn~l trel1ds~ 'Ihemost importapt pf:: , , these trends ',incllide: : ",., ~ ' ' · " The aging of the J,cibybooDl generation;' ~ccomp~niedby . :increases in life'exp~ctancy.~ehuIriber of people age 65 and' , , older will more than double by 2050(~hilethe, number of people' under age 65 with gr()w 'only 22 percent '!'he economic effects of " this demograpWcchange include a slqwmgofthe growth of the " " labor force, an iricreas,e in the demand forhe'althcare services, arid, an increase in the percent of the federal budget dedicated to Social Security and Medicare.20 Baby boomers are expecting to work longer than previous generations. An increasing proportion of people in their early to mid-50s expect to work full-time after age 65. In 2004, about 40% of these workers expect to work full-time after age 65, compared with about 30% in 1992.21 This trend can be seen in Oregon, 'Yhere the share of workers 65 years and older grew from 2% of the workforce 20 The Board of Trustees, Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Federal Disability Insurance Trust Funds, 2008, The 2008 Annual Report of the Board of Trustees of the Federal Old-Age and Surmvors Insurance and Federal Disability Insurance Trust Funds, April 10, 2008. 21 liThe Health and Retirement Study," 2007, National Institute of Aging, National Institutes of Health, U.s. Department of Health and Human Services. Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis September 2009 ECONorthwest Page 67 ,'," , '," ' ,'" ,jn 1>99~'to ~% of the ,workforce in 2002, an increase of 64%. O\rer the ::'sa~~'.t~n-yea!i?ei'ioq, ~or~ers 45 to 64 yea~s ~creased ~y 70,%.22 ,: ' '.' ': , " " .' ;: 0 ~ .' ,1 _' _ 3'. ;:. _. , , , : ..; Ti~t~rilltgiabor (~rce.' G~owth ~n thela~rf()rceis projecte?, to :' .: . . , slow over the 2006-2016:period (is a result. of: (1},aging'aild ,,;" , , retirement6f the baby hoonlef g~Il~f~tioh ~~(2)~~1~pbrJorce: , "partkipationby women' has p~aked,.}ob gr9~$,i~'~~pected to, o~tpa~e popiIlationgr,owth, witq."a. 10% 'inq:ease in employment " (15.6 mIllion jobs) 'compared toa'9%,in<:reasein,civiliari ':', " ' , ,noninstitutloll(ll population 16 yea~s: and ()ider (22 miiliQn people).'23" ' ' : : >~ . ) : >) 1 ' ' " :' ",.,' 'la' 'Need forreplaceJ:l1ent work~rs.Tl1e'need, fot \york~r~ to replac,e ':;' ' ,:r~fuing'~apy ,bOOmers \iVill ?ritpace }ohgt8~th. ',Aq:ording,to th~, ,Bureau of Labor StatiStic~, net replaceJ;llent neeq.s :wili be 3:3.4 '," Ir~~Ol1 job 'operurig~ ov~r"fh~: 200~~,2~l6 perio,d; Tbrethan,tWice ',0.':, th~,grbwth ine!l}pIQym~nt<?f 1?~6 :lllilHon job~~ 'MaPage~ent ',' ,',' ", ,: o~c~patiq~ apatea~he,rsw~~ have the,gf~ah~st,~ee4 ,for. ' , " ,teplac~ment~orkers b~cat1se these,~c<:tipati9rU; h,rv,~ older~than- " " ~ye,r,age,\,Vorkfor<:e.2~ ' ',,' ,:," " ' ,: , ",,'" " " , , , .' 'Increases iplabor 'producti~ity~'Pr()ductivity, as"D;H:~astired by', ,:' . output per hour, ilic,rease~ Qver the 1995 ~o 2005 ,period. 'Thel~rgest increases in producHvity"occurred ,over'tIle 19Q5 to 2000 period, led by industries that pr~duce~~ sold, or 'intensively used information technolo~ products. Prod~c1ivity in:creased over the 2000 to 2005 " " period hut at a slower rate ~an dur~g the latter'half of the 1990's. The sectors that experienced the larges~ productivity:increases' over the 2000 to 2005 period were: Information, Manufacturing, Retail Trade, and Wholesale Trade. Productivity in mining decreased over the five-year period. 25, · Continued trend towards domestic outsourcing~ Businesses continue to outsource work to less expensive markets. Outsourcing generally falls into two categories: (1) moving jobs from relatively expensive areas to less expensive areas within the U.S. and (2) moving jobs outside of the U.S. to countries with lower labor costs. 22 "Growing Numbers of Older Workers in Oregon," Oregon Employment Department. 23 Arlene Dohm and Lyn Shniper, "Occupational Employment Projections to 2016," Monthly Labor Review, November 2007, pp. 86-125. 24 Arlene Dohm and Lyn Shniper, "Occupational Employment Projections to 2016," Monthly Labor Review, November 2007, pp. 86-125. 25 Corey Holman, Bobbie Joyeaux, and Christopher Kask, "Labor Productivity trends since 2000, by sector and industry," Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Labor Review, February 2008. Page 68 ECONorthwest September 2009 Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis . c . - Abaut three-quarters of layoffs in the u.s. between1995 a,nd 2004 ; -Were th~ result of dom~stl~ relocation, ~~olving :movement qf , , " ' ~,w~rk~iWn th~ sa~e cofi:iP~y, The inqustries with the ,larg~s,~ ,~", " , ':. am9un~,of d,om~sti~ oU~,b,UfCip.g '''Y~re: manuf~ctut:~g>ie,ta:il'tra'de,'::' ,and iIJo~a~o~.:~ ' " " ,'" '.- : ':''" " ,', " Continued~owtl1.;inglobal'trade: ~n~'the '~loba1iiation of businessactivity~,'With increas~d'global,tfade~ bath exparts and imports rise.Fa~~d with in~reasing domestic and inb~matianal competition, firms will :se~k to. reduce costs through iJ;nplementing qhality-andptoductivity:~nhancirig technqlogies, ~uchas roboli<:s , ~r fac~9raut()mation~ Irla4~ltio;ri.~some productio;ri. pr6ces~eswill', ' , be'outsourced dffshore.27 ' , ' , , , ~ 1 '. " : ", '. " .. . , '., ~ ,) '0 >. .> . , . 1 ", ,. > ,. ,> ,:. ,CoJ:ttirilledsltift of el11ploYll1e~tfro~mailufacfuriIlga~d, " "r~source~irit~nsive ~Il4ustrie~ to theservice~or~ented sectors of the " " ~C01101ny. I~cr~~secl;worke~ pr()Clu~~~itY'and, the:in~erna:q()n~l'"',, ' ~,9utsour~g ofro'u,-tine' tasl<sleadto 'deslin~sin'~niployment in. the' : ',"major goods~prodricirig wdtistri~s~' Projectlons' fraIrj.'the Bu!~auQ~' , , ~abor~tatisticsindicate that lJ .S.' employment' giowth,,\Vill contlllue t9be strongest'inhealth~are anq :social assi~tarice,pr6f.essional'ahd busin~ss s~ryice,s,arid oth~:r service ~dustries. Coi1strriction 'employmentwill also grow b~trrian~acturing emp~aym'ent will 'decline.28 '"" " , , ' ' . The' importance of high.;.quali~, natural resotirces~T4e relationsWp betWeen natural re~ources and lo'cal economies has. changed as the economy bas shifted away from resource extraction. Increases in the populatian and iil households' incomes, plus changes in tastes and preferences, have dramatically increased demands for outdoor recreation, scenic vistas, clean water, and other resource-related amenities. Such amenities contribute to a region's quality of life and play an important role in attracting both households and firms.29 26 Sharon P. Brown and Lewis B. Siegel, "Mass Layoff Data Indicate Outsourcing and Offshoring Work," Monthly Labor Review, August 2005, pp. 3-10. 27 Eric B. Figueroa and Rose A. Woods, 2007, "Industry Output and Employment Projections to 2016," Monthly Labor Review, November 2007, pp. 53-85. 28 Eric B. Figueroa and Rose A. Woods, 2007, "Industry Output and Employment Projections to 2016," Monthly Labor Review, November 2007, pp. 53-85.; Arlene Dohm and Lyn Shniper, "Occupational Employment Projections to 2016," Monthly Labor Review, November 2007, pp. 86-125. 29 For a more thorough discussion of relevant research, see, for example, Power, T.M. and R.N. Barrett. 2001. Post-Cowboy Economics: Pay and Prosperity in the New American West. Island Press, and Kim, K.-K., D.W. Marcouiller, and S.c. Deller. 2005. Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis September 2009 ECONorthwest Page 69 :( !) ;'1 , , ,; ,J ,.' " · 'Continued westward and southward migration of the U.~~ pop~lation. Although there are ~orne exceptions ~t the s~te level, a " "g906,U:S. 'C~~ps report documents 'an ongoing ,p~tte,rJ;1 'of interstate , , ; " , ,pbpU;~atio,J;iinciyemen~'froni ~e N(,)rtheast and Mi4we~t t9 ,~e"',,..:: : :,~, ' South" an(,iW e~t~:,': , ~ ,: ' , ;';", ' , " , , .:' ' ,..:~, , :,',.. ,', _: ~.'. '~ 1 , ' .' "}~ ",':.,Jj; , "", '.", "~ '".': ~ " ,,' :' · The gro~ing importa,~ceof ed~c~ti,9n'as~,d~tehninant o~ wages' " arid household .income,. ,AccofdiJig to, the Bureau of Labor' ' , " ,Statistics, a ,majoritY of thef~stest gro'Ymgocc~pations will require" :,an academic 'd~giee, and onavetag~theY,will yh~ld higher incorries, , ,than oo:upationsthatdo notrequire an acadenlic degree., The" , , , ' fflstest gr<)\tvmg of Occupations, iequiring"'an aca,demic degree ,will': ,,"be: computer software' applica~on' ellgin~ers~ e~ementary, s~hoql ,,' te~chets'cUld acco,untarlts' and ,a~4it()r~~' Occupations' th~t'do 'not " , , ,!equrr~"ai\academic degre~ (e.g.;r~tai1,sales'per,son;tood: '," ".,..:: ' , , ~'pr~paia~6n,Workersl and' hQme' care ,~ides)' willgr?W, 'acc{)Untirig .. " , Jor abol1,t,haltof.alljobsby2016,~Th~se ~ccup~ti<?ris typi<::ally'hav~ "': " lQw~r P~y1#an9Fcupati~ns requiringan'Clt~demic d~g~ee., 31 '. ~ ' " The riationalmedian income 'in 2006wasab6ut $32,000: Workers ," ' 'witho.uta'high s~ho61 dipl~Il1a 'ea~~d'~13,OOOJesstharl tp.~ lllediah income and workers with a high school ,~~plom~ earned $6,000 less' thartmedianincome. W qrkers with someo:)llege,~ar~ed sJightly less th~median,and wor~ers with abachelor'(degree earned ,$13,OOOmore thanIriedian~, Workers inpregon experience .the same patterns as.;the nation but pay is generally lower in Oregon than the national average,.32 . Continued increase in demand for energy. Energy prices are forecast to remairi at relatively high level~, as' seen in the 2006 to 2008 period,' possibly increasing further over the planning period. Output from the most energy-intensive industries is expected to decline, but growth in the population and in the economy is expected to increase the total amount of energy demanded. Energy sources are expected to diversify and the energy efficiency of "Natural Amenities and Rural Development: Understanding Spatial and Distributional Attributes." Growth and Change 36 (2): 273-297. 30 Marc J. Perry, 2006, Domestic Net Migration in the United States: 2000 to 2004, Washington, DC, Current Population Reports, P25-1135, U.S. Census Bureau. 31 Arlene Dohm and Lyn Shniper, "Occupational Employment Projections to 2016," Monthly Labor Review, November 2007, pp. 86-125. 32 "Growing Number of Older Workers in Oregon," Oregon Employment Department and American Community Survey, U.S. Census, 2006. Page 70 ECONorthwest September 2009 Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis ''I' ' I,: ; ~ ~ , ,., ~ automobiles, appliances, and production processes are proje,c~ed :to increase. pespite increases in energy effic~ency and decreases ~ ' :demand for ~~Iletgy' by some ~d*strie~, dem~d ,for o'e~er'gyi~ ' , ,expected t~~,cre.,~,~e,over th~ 200~'to 2q3~,peri~d, becatise:of ' " " in~t~ases, ~ j)op'~l~,tion ,all~ e~9~biriiF' activity~' 33: : ,," : .. ' , 0 > " " , ' ", -, " ~, , ' , ' . ':. - ,. , " . . . , · Impact 'of rising ~.n~rgy: pt~c'e'~ ~:~'commuting Piltterns. Energy' , , , price~ may confinu~ tpbe:,high (relative to histori~,energy prices) 'or "continriet()rise over~e plaiming period.34',The in<;:reasesin energy , 'prices p:lay impa~t 'Y"illingness, to, cqmmute long distances., TJlere is ~oineindicatioJJ.~atin~re~se~ ~fuel prices hcnre ,~esultedin .. ,>decre~~ed subm:bail hous~gpric~ (i.~., housipgd~mand)i' , " ,': > ~~pecially irt large urban' ;ani~s ,( e.g~, Los 'Arigeles'~r' Chi~ago )ari~" " , " 's~p~rbsfar tr9ri1: the' center 'city.,Ifthi,s pattern cOhtirui~s,ilie area ',:' :inOregoI1 ,most likely ~obe,~ostimpactedi~'~orti~d, ~~~hhas " the hu:gestar,e~, 'Of U!l>ah aIld ,subtir~an ,deve~,?pwerit in the stat~~35 " , ' I ~. : > l, ~ -" , " , " . " ,~ , ;",' I ' 1 ,. , · ,:, Possible'effec~ of risillg l!a:llspo~alionan4 'f~el pri.:es '6h', , , " gl~baliiatlQn.:Iricr~ases inglol?aliZatipn ate related totQe, costqf , ~~u~spo~tation: Wl:wn transpbr~ti6ri is less e,xpensive" companies 'ri1ovepro.duction'to 'areas with lower labor ,costs. Oregon has", "',: ,ben~fi~e~ITom tN~ tr~nd/,w:ith d?mestic outsour<;ing' of call centers and otherbac~ office functions. In other ca~es, businesses ill " ' Oregon (arid the nation) have ";off-shored" employment to other, " c,ountries, most frequently manufac~ring jobs. 'lpcreases in either transportation or labor costs may ilnpact , globalization. When the 'wage gap between two areas is larger than , th~ additional costs of transporting goods, companies are likely to , shift operations to an area with lower labor costs. Conversely, when transportation costs increase, companies may have incentive to relocate to be closer to suppliers or consumers. This effect occurs incrementally over time and it is difficult to measure the impact in the short-term. If fuel prices and transportation costs decrease over the planning period, businesses may not make the decision to relocate (based on transportation 33 Energy Information Administration, 2008, Annual Energy Outlook 2008 with Projections to 2030, U.s. Department of Energy, DOE/EIA-0383(2008), April. 34 Energy Information Administration, 2008, Annual Energy Outlook 2008 with Projections to 2030, U.s. Department of Energy, DOE/EIA-0383(2008), April 35 Cortright, Joe. "Driven to the Brink: How the Gas Price Spike Popped the Housing Bubble and devalued the Suburbs," May 2008. Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis September 2009 ECONorthwest Page 71 ,\ . It .. r ',,: - costs) because the b~nefits of being closer to suppliers and mark,ets ~ay not exc~d thecos1:1i ofrelocation. .............. .. ,. .. . " , ~;' ~ ';' 9rowing oppo'rtUp.~ties'for Ilgreen" b~siiu~s~es~:l3tisin~ss~~ ~:re, ; .', : " ,':::ipcr~as~gly'~6D-~~med \yith "/gr~~n'~'bvsiness,opp'6~~q~sait(l'",,: '," , 'pra:~ti~es:; Th~s,e '~u~~~s~ :p:rat.tice,~"a,t~; ~o~~emedwith "the desi~, , "<:oll1.rrie~ciallzatl<;>ri, ,~<i ,~se :o~ pro~e'ss~s ~d products that are, ,,:' . Jeasibl(~ and 'ecb~omi<;alw~le, redu~mg the ,generation of pollution " ,at the,soul'<:e an4 ininiffiizing the:r,isk to human ~ealth'aild the " , " , ,. ' '" " II, " ' ' ,envrronment.~ , ~ '" " ::' ., . ,'. . , G~eei1bus~ess opportliniti~s have histqricallyb~enat;tl1e ~erg,<?f,' ".f~asibilitY and,econotriics; if a .fiJm igri~res 'feasibility fillet,' : ' " ' " , e'c~nQInicsWlUle trying to be,greeri,th~ fUIIl m~YJ:lqfbe ,aple to' :, :', " affqrdto opeJ;ate ~oPg' en6~gh',t9 i~aTI1,how~oma~e ,~eetl ,", , ' . ,,"" , "",' ..h~sines,s~s feaslbl~.:'The trne,e types.bfgreen :b~~iness'opportunities " , ". ar~ p:roduc~/prbt~sses, aIl~ e;du~ation." " ' , " , '"" ..... 0 ..Prod~cing gr~en prod~cts, qreen produ~ts'pel"f()rtn the , function 6~' regul~r pro~uc~; ,btit'-do it in a'waytl1at uses' , ' 'fewer ,~es()urces or~:reat~~,less pO~l1.tion." 'For,ex~#Lple, , I,hybrid'vehicles are gl'een p~cause they useless gasoline 'to' operatea.ndaddfe""er'pollutclnts t6:the air. Yethybrid' '", " vehIcles servetliesame functiqil as ~dn~hybrid cars. Ano~~r' .e:xample is bambqpfericing and lumber, which is green, . . because bambQo is more renewable thari traditionallu~ber. Bamboo products have the strength necessary for buildmg. ,. ' . ", , ,0 Providing education about green practices or products. Green . education is often closely related to producing green 'products and is often done by consultants or nonprofits. Examples of companies involved in green education include the U.S. Green Building Council, which certifies buildings as green (LEED certification), or a consulting firm that writes a gree~ (or sustainable) plan for a city or business. o Using green business practices. Green business practices are alternative methods of doing business that promote resource conservation, prevent or reduce pollution, or have other beneficial environmental effects. Examples of green business processes include: buying products locally to reduce shipping distance, recycling waste products (where 36 Urban Green Partnership at urbangreenpartnership.org Page 72 ECONorthwest September 2009 Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities' Analysis possible), or maximizing the use {)f natural lIghting to , reduce use of electricity an~ light bvlbs. ,,;,,' . " ,> ' : F~r,exaP1-ple, ECONo!t4w~st, i~ a ,gr~eIj 'e:4ucat~r .be~ausewe ' help' 9~r ,cli,eri~'~~(lge,natU;ral r~'s6tlrce'seffec;tively ,and :- ;', 'tak,~ all,(:d~tS;"and behefitS:of'~ particular action ihto :actoUI}t' ~,:or4er' ,foPfo,perly judge ,the correc~ <;o~rse of "ctlon. ,A' ' ,'~equent lnetl1o~Qfmarketing greeriprodticts, invo~ves ,,' , green education. It is 'much easier to' sell a hybrid car to a , cus,tomer ,who knows tl1e enviionmentalbenefits"of 9'wning, : a hybrid, so educating potential ,cti~to'mers, c,anal~ gr~a,tly ijl. ,increasing saJe~:. , ' , ',' , ' '... ' , ' , .', ' , ,.",,' ]?otentlal 'impa~ts of,g~o bal ~ljmatE~:cha.nge., there,i$ gto~irig" , Sttpport f(jrbp~J~ota cOJ:lSel1~us al>.outwhe~er'global climate, i ,',' 'change is Oc~u.iTw.gasa result6f gr~enho~se J~as ei;Iliss~olls~Ther~, ','jsa lot of un~ertait1tY s,urrburiding gl,ob(i1 cIin1at~ chahg~tinchi(j.ing , the pace O! clllIlate:~hcuj.ge an? the ecologi~~l cind 'ecbi:1orniC: ,impacts of cJ.iriulte <:haiig~s. C~ate ~hal1gemay :result in'th~ .fp~q~mg , .;'.. " ,d:~anges, :,in the:pac~c:'NOrthwest '(1) increase, in' a, verage ' , ' " , ,.temperatlires~ (2) shift in the: type of precipi~tioni ~ith more. . ',',' , , ,,' ~inter precipitatio~ ~aUing a.~,raint (3) decrease in moun~in snow- ' pack aJ;ld ea!lier spring tha'Y and (4) increases in carbon di())(~de in' , ":theair.37 Assjiining'that glopal d.iffia~e change is occurring and 'Yill ' ., continue to occur over the next 20-years, a few broad; potential, , economic impacts for th~ n~tion and Pacific Northwes't inchide:~" , ' , . . , ' b Potential impact on agriculture and forestry. Climate change may impact Oregon's agriculture through changes m: growing season, temperature ranges, and wateravailability.39 Clinlate change may impact Oregon's forestry through increase in wildfires, decrease in the rate of tree growth, change in mix of tree species, and increases in disease and pests that damage trees.4O 37 "Economic Impacts of Oimate Change on Forest Resources in Oregon: A Preliminary Analysis," Climate Leadership Initiative, Institute for Sustainable Environment, University of Oregon, May 2007. 38 The issue of global climate change is complex and there is a substantial amount of uncertainty about climate change. This discussion is not intended to describe all potential impacts of climate change but to present a few ways that, climate change may impact the economy of cities in Oregon and the Pacific Northwest. 39 "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change in Oregon: A preliminary Assessment," Climate Leadership Initiative, Institute for Sustainable Environment, University of Oregon, October 2005. 40 "Economic Impacts of Oimate Change on Forest Resources in Oregon: A Preliminary Analysis," Climate Leadership Initiative, Institute for Sustainable Environment, University of Oregon, May 2007. Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis September 2009 ECONorthwest Page 73 " )"'. " o Potential impact on touriSIl) and recreation.: I~pact$ on ~ol:lri~in apd recreatio!lmay range f~om,: (1 ).:c~.~~reases in , snow~based recreation # snow~pack inthe~ascades ; .' ' , "d~c~e,as~s,' (2) n~gativ~ '~Pa.<:~ t~' t~tiris.t?~lbng',c~~ ,9r'~,g~~" \' "',Coast',is ci'resuIt:of damage and 'beach '~ro~iohIr9rnf~~~g:,:,':: ' , .:', sea'lev~is>1 '(3)heg~ti~e impactS on ayail~bilityof ~ate,~ ,,", :, , ,'" 'su~mer '~iv~r r,ecr~a,~on '( e~g'., r~ver,f'aftb.igot spo~tSfis~g) 'as C). result of 16wer'summer river flows, arid (4) negativ~, , ,hnpacts' on theav~ilab~ty 'of""ater for d~mestic cin~ ,business uses. ' o. Potential changes in government polides.;Th~re iscurreritlyno ,sub'stantial :nationa~ ,public', poliey,respoill;e togI9l,>aiSMmat~, ,: ','cJ:lahge. States a~d 'reRiona~,~ssociatiohs 6f,s~ates. ,ar~ iri'the' , 'pr6~ess~f forlIlulating p<?licYresponse~ tb addr,ess climate' ' changeincl~d~g:,Picreasirig.rene~~~I~:,energy gener(l,tion; ':' " "', ~ellil)g~grku~tural~a~po'Il seques~ati9ncredit$~:~c1., ' ,:." '" , enS9~r~gmg ~J:l~rgy effici~~cy.~2VVithout cle~~ inQ~cat1onS,of ,', ' , '~eg9v~mment policies that may beadopted;' i!is'riot, , ';, ' , .' possi1J,le to ':~~sess the ill1pa~t of gove~rrmeilt P9li~i~s,'dJJ ~~, , , eco~01flY'" ' "',Global climate cIlan'ge may offer eco~omiC opportuiutie~.The , searchfor~ltemativeenergysources may'resllltinincreased, " , investmenfalldempl()yme!lt'in" green" energy sources, such jis , I"~ wind, solar, artdbiofuels. Firms in the Northwest an~ well. ' positioned to le~d efforts on climate change mitigation" which may result in export products, such as renewable technologies or ,green . manufacturing. 43 ' " , , , I'" ' . .'.,' Short-term national trends will also affect economic growth in the region, but these trends are difficult to predict. At times these trends may run counter to the long-term trends described above. A recent example is the downturn in economic activity in 2007 following declines in the housing market and the mortgage banking crisis. The result of the economic downturn has been a decrease in employment related to the housing market, such as construction and real estate. Employment in these industries will recover as the housing market recovers and will continue 41 liThe Economic Impacts of Climate Change in Oregon: A preliminary Assessment," Climate Leadership Initiative, Institute 'for Sustainable Environment, University of Oregon, October 2005. 42 Pew Center on Global Climate Change website: http:f /www.pewclimate.org/what_s_bein~done/in_the_states/ 43 liThe Economic Impacts of Oimate Change in Oregon: A preliminary Assessment," Climate Leadership Initiative, Institute for Sustainable Environment, University of Oregon, October 2005. Page 74 ECONorthwest September 2009 Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis ~( ,- I 1:' " i ,:: c '~: I II · to. playa significantiale in the natianal" state, and lacal ecanamy aver the , lang run. This report takes a larig-rup p~ispective an ecanop:lic'~on<titions :" ,: (a:~, :the ~a,al9 requ,rreme~tsinte,rL~),:an,~~6es not, atteIl1pt, to pr~~i~,~ ~e' : '. I' :IDlpacts af shart-rtln,n,apo,nal ~:u~:mess'cycles on empl6yme~tqr ~col1-a~ic.", ~actiy~tY.: " "" ,;' ,,: ' .,''':, ", " :" '\J , ,. ,I} e> ','- " ,., :,,'SJAT~tREi.JDS ' , ' . State :~dr~~an~l t:rends will als9 'affectecano~ic devel9pinent'in : : , . ,Sprfugfi~ld,aver ,the next twenty years,' 'The mostimpo~tantaf these trends. ' '. ~cludes: cantinuedin~migr~tipn fram other states, distrjbutian af" "papulatia!land emplaymenfa~~oss theState~' .:" . · . ,COil~~Iuie~ in~mi~atio~ Jroll1 o'tIler states., ~r~gan ~illsari~ue't9 \, ,;.' exp~deh~e m-migratio,n frP:tll otlter ~tatesi'especi~lljrCalifarnia: and,' '. ,':":Was~ingtoIl.A9cQrdingtoaU.S.'C.eIlS'ris stu:~y,9regoriha4'n~t,".' ',' 'int~r$tatein~wigration,(mo~~peopl~IIloved ,to Oregan th.~iri()yed . ' .' from ,Oregon) ci~riIlg the,I',er~ad 1990~2004,44()regari ha~ ai1'~ual . " , ":~rv.~rage of~~,~,90~aretn"7inigrants'thangut~m~grailts during' the' ::, ':perfo~J99~-~OOO. ,The amuial average ~rappedt~.l2,~80 d~ring the' ',pet~()d 2pOO-2004,.45.'11ostin~InigraJ:1ts come framCalifafuia, ..",',' Was~gt9n,'and a~erwesteri1,states.46 " , -';, " . , '. .. ' .' '" ' , , " . . \ . . ' " . . " ". ' .,' ',:(:~ncentratiori 'of population and employment' inthe'Willatnette ' ,." Valley. Nearly 70%' of ,Oregan' s papit1atia~ lives in, tlle Will~mette . ' V~lley., Abaut 10%, af .Oregan's papulatian lives in Sa'uthem: Oregan and 9% ,liv'esin Central Oregan. TheOr~gan ()ffice of " Eca~amic Analysis (OEA) farecasts that'papulatioI1- will cantinue to be cancentrated in the Willamette Valley thraugh 2040, increasing slightly to. 71% af Oregan's papulation. ' Emplayment grawth generally fallaws the same trend as populatian grawth. Emplayment grawth varies between regians even mare, hawever, as emplayment reacts mare quickly to. changing ecanamic canditians. Tatal emplayment increased in each 44 Marc J. Perry, 2006, Domestic Net Migration in the United States: 2000 to 2004, Washington, DC, Current Population Reports, P25-1135, U.s. Census Bureau. 4.5 In contrast, California had net interstate out-migration over the same period. During 1990-2000, California had an annual average of 220,871 more out-migrants than in-migrants. The net outmigration slowed to 99,039 per year during 2000-2004. 46 Oregon Department of Motor Vehicles collects data about state-of-origin for drivers licenses surrendered by people applying for an Oregon drivers license from out-of-state. Between 2000 and 2007, about one.:third of licenses surrendered were from California, 15% to 18% were surrendered from Washington, and about 17% to 19% were from the following states: Arizona, Idaho, Nevada, Colorado, and Texas. Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis September 2009 ECONorthwest Page 75 '10.' I ' I; !i: I of the state's regions, over ,the p~ribd 1,<J70-2006 but over 70% of ,Oregon's,employmentwaslocated inthe,':Willamette Valley., '" '<,::' >", ,:,'.::~':,~,:'",:' '<',:', ':,:>,:"~:,, :' ,',:' "",' ' ,; ,J',:.,~ ';,Cl}arigeinthe typ~'9f'th~~~~U:s~~~~in 9~~g'~n.,',~sP~~gon,h~s ,':;.' :'. " " ,q~it;iorie4 e;rwayfrolllha,Wral resourc~~basediI}d~s~ies':",th~ :': "',', ,: ' "'CbIllP()'siti9rt,of,Orego~'s,employ~erithass~~ed#(jJJ:1'n~tpr(;l1 ,,""', " :, ~'eso~rce,b4se,dlIlan~fa~tllri1lg ~d other industrie~ to ~erYice ,', " '.; ind1istf.~es~ ~e'share ()fQregoll's tot~lempI9ym~rit,~,?e!Vice . "indllstries ,increased from its 1970s average.of 1,9% to.30%' in 2000" while employment iIl'ManufacturiJ:lg declined ,fro~ an avera'ge,?f., ' .18% in the 19?Os tOC:ill ave!age 9f1q%, ~ 200?~.. .' ~~~t iri'ln~nufa~turing frQm '#~turalr~~o~c~~b(;lSe'4toi\igh~tech' ":and other m~nUf~chiring indtistties;"Siil~e1970/0regoIl starteci to tr~iti()ri~w~y fr()w Xeli~J:lce ()1i't:ra,dippn~1 resoiirc~~~xtrClcti9~ ..'. . industries. A significant indJcator of'tlp.s tranSition is the 'sNft ' , within Oregon's manufacturing sector, with a decline hi the level df, ' :' ,".:ep:lpI9YrTI~rtt ~the, L~lllber '&:,., Wood !Prod ri~ts ~dtl~try and .,'." . "'i:<:~pc~n'ent gro~th:bf e.t#plpymyn~in;otl1er~anufac~ing',,' '. ' indu~tries, such as high-technology manufacturing (In9u,sttiaJ,' .~achi1;iery (Ei,e~troriic ~quipment, aIldI~truri1ents)';", '. '. .,' , , Transporta1i,on~qulpment manufacturing, and Printmg and ',Publishirig~ ~7 . , ' ' , " . 'Continu~d import~nce of manuf~ctriringto, Oreg'~i:t' s 'economy. , ,Revenue.from exports totaled $16.5 million in 2007, an increase of. $5.1 million or 45% since 2000. Four of thefive irlrlustries that. . accounted for more than tl1iee-quarters of revenue from exports in 2007 ($12.6 million) were manufacturing industries: Computers arid Electronic Production ($6.3 million); Crop Production ($2.2 million); TranSportation Equipment ($1.7 million); Machinery Manufacturers ($1.7 million); and Chemical Manufacturers ($0.7' million).Manufacturing employment is concentrated in five counties in the Willamette Valley or Portland area: Washington, Multnomah, Lane, Clackamas, and Marion Counties. Average wages for employees of manufacturing firms in these counties in 2006 ranged from $71,500 to $34,200 and were generally above the state's average (about $38,000) 48 . " 47 Although Oregon's economy has diversified since the 1970's, natural resource-based manufacturing accounts for more than one-third of employment in manufacturing in Oregon in 2006, with the most employment in Wood Product and Food manufacturing. 48 OECDD, "Economic Data Packet, March 2008." Page 76 ECONorthwest September 2009 Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis " II!!",' I ' ! ' I ! [' " , " · Small businesses contin\t~ t9 "account for over ?O% of employment in qrego,n.' S:t;h,~~ busi?e:ss, with 1,00 orle~er ~, empl~yee~, ac<;ount Jor}~ % ofp:dvate se,c,~orelp.ployment iI\ ' , " OregolJ, ~P fr6~rfa.l?ou~ 5Q~~%o~ private~mploYlllent41 gOQQ4-n~ ,:; " " " ,," '0 , do~from52.,5%'~i996. Worker'sof'srriallpus~~ssestYpi~~l1y,', .. ' : ha4 lower ~ages than the' state ~verage, with' average ~~ges of " , ,,:' '$33,~3Q co,Illpared to the statewide average ofabant $3~,oQ():iil'26b6.' , " " , '. 'Con~nu~dlackof diversity in'the State Economy. ,While the, , trans~tion from Lumber and,Wood ProductS,manUfacturfug'~o'" ,:high-te'ch m~nufactU,riIlg h.asmcr,easedthe div~rsity Qf', "" :" .' employmentwitl1in,Ore,gon,.ithas not, significantly :imp~oved , 'Or~gon's di~~ts~tyrelative t<?th~ ria~dnal ec~nom.y.:Orego,n'S ':, " rel~#ve ,dlver~ityhas historlc~~y nillked, low ,~~ong st&t~s.' Qregon'" ' ,", rCl1}ke<i35th ill diversity (lst'=most diversified) .bC:ls~<i:on 'Grpss~State' , , Prodttc't dahi fo~ 1963:"'1986,.and 32~d, based oil data 'for the i 977~':, , ~1.996'peri()d.49A're~ent'~alysi~; bClseq o~ 200,Q' qata~'rariked'Oregon ' " , ,'31~t.5oTheser~iIlgs suggest,t,h~tOregon Is sti11heaviJy,depel;1d~nt:, " Qn a Ilmitednumber of ipdustiies::R~lativ~ly lo"v ~cori6p:lic .':,:,,'.: :: ' , 'diverSIty mcreasesthe riskofeconoIIlicv6hitilHy' asrne,cismed,by" ' , :~hallges'in output or employment., , ," ," , ", , :The changingcompo~ition ofemploYnlenthasnotaffected'allre'giolls 'of, ,'., 9regon e,venly. Growth m high~teth'and SeiVicesemployment has been . conceiltratedm urban areas of the WillametteValleyand Southern " Oregon, partictilarlym Washington, Benton, arid Josephirte ~ounties. The brunt of the decline m Lumber & Wood Productsemploymerit was felt in rural Oregon, where these jobs represented a larger 'share of total . employment and an even larger share of high-paymg jobs than m urban areas. ,'" ~ ," . ' " ' 49 LeBre, Jon. 1999. "Diversification and the Oregon Economy: An Update." Oregon Labor Trends. February. 50 CFED, 2007, The Development Report Card for the States, http://www.cfed.org. Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis September 2009 ECONorthwest Page 77 'Jj" ,II i ~ i ii' I ! J., I! , n_t ;: 'I 1:i"" /i , 'I !I' 'III' Illi ECONOMIC TRENDS IN LANE COU~T'(AND S~RINGFI,ELD : Future economi~ growth in 'Sp:r1;ngfie~~ ~i1lbe affected, in part by: " ; demographic ~d:~copoffiic tfen4~' ~ ~~city'and ~~~rot,m,ding regi<;>n. A', " 'r~v~e~:~f':rlstor~~al demograph~~ and economic ~~ri4s p~~Vi~e~, a :~o~~e~~ ':.f<;>~ ~suiblishing'ateaso~abie"expectation of'~hf,r,e,gr~~th iri,Spr~gfie~d. ',: ' ' , In ad~~~on, ,the relations~p b~twee~ d~mographic"ap.d economic, ;' : ... '. iriaic~tors ~uch as populatio:t;l and 'emp~oym,ent ~arl help asse~~the local" : , ,influence of future tr~n~s and resvlting e<;:onomic conditions. ,ThIs section addresses the following trends' ~ Springfield: . ' ,. ,P~pitlati~]l arid de~~g~aphi~s, : '~ ' Ho~se~?ld~n;dp'ersona~, iric,?~e , , .' '~mployment '" , ' " .' '> . . . 'B~s~ess'activiiy; ::,: , ' ., , " " . . 'Outlook ,fof ,growth iiisP!in~~ld , , I". ',' , ','., , . ., ,'. " >, " ' ." " . , P:Op'ULATIONANpDEMOGRArHIC CHA~ctERISTICS " . - . , " , . Population growth iri Oregon' tends to f~1l6W eCbnomic. Cycles.",' Historically~Oregon's economyis more cyclical than the nati.dn's,'gi()~mg, faster than the n~tional economy duringexpansio~,and contracting more rapidly than the nation during recessionS. Oregon grew more rapidly :than the ~LS. in the 1990s (which was'generallya1:l e~pansi6narYp~riod)but . lagged behip.d the U.S. in the 1980s. Oregon's slow growth in the 1980s was primarily due to the nationwide recession e'arly'in the decade. As the nation's economic growth has slowe? during 2007, Oregon's population' growth began to slow. Oregon's population grew from 2.8 million people in 1990 to 3.7 million people in 2007, an increase of more than 900,000 people at an average annual rate of 1.6%. Oregon's growth rate slowed to 1.3% annual growth between 2000 and 2007. Lane County grew slower than the State average between 1990 and 2007, growing at 1.1 % annually and Cidding more than 60,000 people. More than 60% of the County's population lived in the Eugene-Springfield area in 2007, with about 17% of the County's population in Springfield. Springfield's population grew faster than the County average, at 1.5% annually, adding 12,637 residents over the seventeen-year period. Page 78 Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis ECONorthwest September 2009 Table A-1. Population in the U.S., Oregon, the Willamette Valley, Lane County, ,Springfi,e~d, a..~d ,Eugene, 1990-2007 "Po ulation ,Chan e 1990 to 2007 1990 2000 ' ,2007,' Number Percent AAGR 248,709,873 281,42+,906301,621;157 52,91~;284 ,,210/0 1.10/0 2,84~,321 . ,3,421,~99 3,74~,455' 9Q3J34 "32'0/0 1.60/~ 1,962,816 2,380,606 ,2,602,790 6~Q,974 330/0 1.70/0 282,912 322,959 343,140 '60,228, 410/0 1.10/0 44,683 52,864 57,320 12,637 280/0 1.50/0 112,669 137,893 153,690 41,021. 360/0 1.80/0 Area U.S. Oregon' , Willamette Valley Lane County . Springfield Eugene Source: U.S. Census, the Population Research Center at Portland State University. , Notes: Benton, Clackamas, Lane, Linn, Marion, Multnomah, Polk, Washington, and Yamhill Counties represent . the Wi II a mette Valley Region. . ' Migrationis.the.largest.compon~nt of popu1ation'growth ip Oregon~ ,., Between 1990 arid 2007, in-migration accounted for 70%.()f Oregon's populatipn growth. Over the sa~e period"in-;migratioIl accoUnted for . 74% of populati()n growth in Lane'County~ acidmg.ne~r1y 44i500 residertts:, ' over theseveriteen~year period. ,. . . , , . >. . " , , ,', "', .,' . " , Sprmgfieldi ~ popu1ation was young,er than" the COUJ:lty or Shlte averag, es in 2008. Figure A-I shows the age ~tr~cturefor Oregol1, Lane County, .' Eugene, and Springfield in 2008. Springfield had a greater prop?rtio~ of its population under 44 y~ars of age (6~%) . than Eugene (62%), Lane County (58%), or. Oregon (60%). Springfield also had a smaller. share of population aged 55 and older, 21 % of Springfield's population, compared to 24% in Eugene, 27% in the County, 26% in the State. Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis September 2009 ECONorthwest Page 79 "ill, Figure A-1. Population, by age, Oregon, Lane County, Eugen,e, and Sprir:1gfi~ld; '2008 , , ; , .:l" , 65 and o\ler , Jll > ..): I; 55-64 ~ .. ---------- 45-54 .---- ~___________'l.o.._ CI) 0)' <(, ~------ . -..-- -. ! I', , 1 Under 10 - ---------- 0% 5% 1 0% 15% 20% Percentof ~opulation, , ,iI Oregon, . Lane county q Springfield 0 Eugene Source: Claritas 2008, percentages calculated by ECONorthwest. The average age of Springfield residents is increasing.' According to the US Census, Springfield's average age was'32 in 2000,30 in 1990, ahd 26 in 1980. Table A-2 shows the change in age distribution for Springfield between 2000 and 2008. The age group that increased the most was people aged 45 to 64, which grew by 2,540 people (24%). This age group's proportion of the total population increased from 20 % to 23 % during this time period. The largest percentage decrease was in people aged 18 to 24, which shrunk by 913 people (16%). Page 80 ECONorthwest September 2009 Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis 'II: ',- '.1'11':1 ,; '-:1' " 11 Lltll Table A-2. 'Ch~nge in age distribution, Springfield, 2000-2008 2000 , 2008 Change 2000 to 2008 ' , Age Group Number Percent Number ' Percent Number Percent Share" 'Un~~r,5 ' ' 4,327 80/0 4,121 , ; ]% -206 -5% -0.80/0 ,5-17 ' , 1~,069 190/0 '10,477 190/0 408 40/0 -0.30/0 18-24 5,890 110/0 4,977 ,90/0 -:913 -160/0 :2.30/0' 25-44 16,609 31% 17,~72 310/0 763 50/0 -0.4% 45-64 10,546 200/0 13,086 23% 2,540 24% 3.40/0 , 65 and over 5,423 100/0 5,983 110/0 560 1 bOlo '0.40/0 , Total 52,864 1000/0 56,016 1000/0 3,152 , '60/0 0.00/0 SourCe: u'.S. Census ,2000 an9 Claritas 2008 , Note: Percent change over the 2000 to 2008 period is based on the groWth in the age group divided by the' number of people in the age group in 2000. For'example, people 5 to '17 years old had a 4% percent change, which ~as calculated using the following calculation: 408/10,069 = 4%. , ' Note: Share refers to the change in the percent of an age group between 2000 and 2.008. For example, the share of people 18, to 24 years old ~ecreased from 11 % to9%, a decrease of 2,3%. ' ' Note: Percentages may, riot add to 10q% as a result.of rou~~ing errors. . " . , , .." . '. " HOUSEHOLD AND PE'RSONAL INCOME, , , .. " -- . ~ . ';.,' "" . Incom~{in Lane ,County and Springfield has ~storically bee~ lower than the State or national averages. Lane,CQuno/' s 'median housel:1old mcome , in' 2006 was $42,127, c,ompared with $46,~30for'Oregori ~d' ~e national average of $48,451; 'fhe median hou~ehold income in Sprnlgfield in 1999 ' was $33,031,89% ,of the,Cotinty average of $36,942. ' Lane County's median hou~ehold income in 2006 was $42,127, compared with $46,230 for Oregqn and the national average of $48,4?1. Figure A-2 shows the distribution of household income in Oregon, Lane County, Eugene, and Springfield in 2008. Figure A-2 shows that a larger share of households in Springfield (32%) had an income of $25,000 or less, compared to Lane County (27%) or the State (23 %). Springfield also has a lower share of households with income above $75,000 (17%) than Eugene (23%), the County (23%), or the State (27%). Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis September 2009 ECONorthwest Page 81 \!\11~ j r I jli il ~7~ I i , ' ,;, [Iii iil! ':'i Figur~ A-2.' Distribution of household incorne of Oregon, Lane County, ~l:Igene, a~d Springfield, 2008 " ',f , Great,er ~han $150,060 ,. , , " , $100,000,- $150,000 [ (1), ,E ' 8' $75,000 - $99,999 ,c ' -' -c' '0 ~ 'm$50,000 -$74,999, ::J ' ,,', " " ,0 J: $25,000 -'$49,99'9 , , , 'I' , I " Less tha~ $25,000 0% 10% ' 15% 20%'; 25%' 30% 35% 5% , .' , , ' J " , Per:centof Households ", '.. Orego~' , ' ~ Lane County 0 Springfield, 0 Eugene Source: Claritas 2008 Figure A-3 shows the change in per capita personal income for the U.S., Oregon, and Lane County between 1980 and 2005 (in constant 2005 dollars). Oregon's per capita personal income was consistently lower than the U.S. average over the 25-year period. While the gap between the , Oregon and U.S. average narrowed in the mid-1990s, it widened again starting in the late 1990's. Lane County's personal income over the 25-year period was consistently lower than Oregon's personal income. In 2005, per capita personal income in Lane County was approximately 92 % of Oregon's per capital income and 87% of the U.S. per capital income. During the 25-year period, per capita personal income in both Lane County and Oregon grew by 49%, while personal income grew by 59% nationally during the same period. Page 82 Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis ECONorthwest September 2009 11!'"'li I :Ii ---Ij- Iii;: Figure A-3. Per capita personal income in the U.S., Oregon, and Lane County, 198~-2005, ($2005) - ~u.s. > -Oregon ,~Lane County Source: Regional Economi.c Information System, Bure~u of Economic Analysis. U.S. Department of Commerce Figure A-4 shows the major sources of per capita personal i1:lcome for Oregon and Lane County between 1980 and 2005. Lane County's share of personal income from net earnings was lower than for Oregon and the County's share of personal income from transfe~ payments and dividends, interest, and rent was higher than the State average. Retirees are most likely to have personal income from current transfers and dividends, interest, and rent. The larger share of personal income from these sources makes sense because Lane County has a larger share of people over 60-years than the State average. Figure A...;} shows that Lane County has a higher percentage of residents over 60 years old than the State average. In addition, the share of population aged 65 and older increased by 16% between 1990 and 2000 in Lane County, compared with a 12% statewide increase in population 65 and older. Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis September 2009 ECONorthwest Page 83 ;:1' 'Ii Iii !: :I! f~gure A-4. per, ~~pita personal income by major sources, Oregon and Lane County, 19~0-2P05 ' , , Oregon "'1'06% ' , " , : ~ O,OO/? ' " " 90% 90%' 41 80% 41 ,80% E 70% E 70% ' 0 '0, (J 60% ,(J qO% ..= ..= ''0 50% '0' 50% - C c '40% 40% 41 41 ,~ 30% ~ 30% ' 41 41 D.. 20% D.. 20% 10% 1'0% 0% 0% 1980 1985 1990 :1995 2000 " 2005 1980 " Year Lane County : o Current Transfers . Dividends, Interest, Rent . Net Earnings ,:1985 ' 1990' 1995," 2000 ' 2005' Year 'So!Jrce: Regional Econom'ic I~formation 'Sys~em, Burea,u ot' Econ()mic Analy~is, 'U.S. gepartment of CommerCe ' " ' " ',' '. " '. '. . " ." ' L" '10 . Ta~le A-3 ;show~ average, ~ii':li pay per 'ep:1ployee"ill; the u.s.,'O~~g~n,' ~d Lane' Cotultr for 2000 to,2006. !l;1e n~ti6~ai av~~age ~age grew fast~,r' than State or C~uhty averages.' The' av,erage U.S.'wage iricreased by 20% ' '(more than $7,OOO)j compan~d to" the State,incr~ase:of 16%(mo~e th~ $5,000) or~eCo~iy increase of 19% (Iil9r~ than $S.,OOO)~ Wages in Lane County reiative~oth~ U.S. dec~easedby'l % :overthesix-ye~r period. ' , " , , '1' Lane C6unty'~ 'average arinu~lwage has increased by t 9%' (more than $5,000) from $27,878 to $33,240 bvertlie2000 to 2006 period. Lane County's average pay has, grown faster than the State average, increasing from 85% of the State average in 2000 to 87% in 2006. Table A-3. Aver-age annual pay, Oregon and Lane County (nominal dollars),2000-2006 Lane County; Lane 0/0 of 0/0 of u.s Oregon County u.s. State 2000 $35,323 $32,776 $27,878 790/0 850/0 2001 $36,219 $33,202 $28,982 800/0 870/0 2002 $36,764 $33,685 $29,427 800/0 870/0 2003 $37,765 $34,455 $30,325 800/0 880/0 2004 $39,354 $35,627 $31,339 800/0 880/0 2005 $40,677 $36,593 $32,302 790/0 880/0 2006 $42,535 $38,070 $33,240 780/0 870/0 Change 2000 to 2006 Nominal Change $7,212 $5,294 $5,362 Percent Change 200/0 160/0 190/0 Source: Oregon Employment Department and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Page 84 ECONorthwest September 2009 Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis Iii .. Springfield's average wages are similar to the County aver~ge. The average wage for workers in Spring~eld in 2006 wa~ ne~rly $~3,OOO.;, LANE COUNTY.EMPLOYMENT TRENDS , ' . rabie~'A-4 an;~ A~5 pres~nt data from the9reg~n,E~ployment Depaitment that shd~ ch~ges in c6ver~~ eJ?1ployments1 for Lane CountY between 1980 and 2005. The changes in sectors and industries' are s:q.own in tw~ '41bles: ,(1) between 1980 arid 2000 and (2) be~een 20'01 and 2005. ' The analysis is divided in this way because .of changes in industry and sed:orclass~ication that 'made it difficult to compare ~orma~on about emplormen~~C?llected after 2001 with informatio~ coI~ected prior to 2000. , , E~ployment datam this section is summariz.ed by~ector, :~~~h of "Yhich , inc~udes several individual inqustries. For exa~ple,the Reta~ Tr~de 'sect?r , 'includes General Merchandise Stores, M~tor,Vehicle and Parts Oealers, , ' Food and Beverage Stores, arid other r~tail 'industries.' " , , .' . Table f\-4 sholVsthe :changes in covered employinent'by sector in Lan~ , County between 1989 and 2000. ,Covered empi6yment ~ the County grew fro~' 97,600 to 139,696, an increase of 43 % or 42,096 jobs'. Every sector ' added jobs during this period, except for Mfuing. The sectors with the ' greatest change in employment wen~ Service~ and Retail Trade, adding a , total of 29,423 jobs or about 70% of all new jobs. , ,. , Manufacturing grew by 4,020 jobs during the twenty-year period. The , industries with the largest manufactu;ring growth were Transportation equipment manufacturing (R.V. manufacturing), computer and electronics manufacturing, and machinery manufacturing. Average pay per employee increased from about $13,700 in 1980 to $27,900 in 2000. The sectors that grew the fastest generally paid less than average, with Services paying between 80% to 90% of average and Retail Trade paying about 60% of average. Manufacturing jobs generally paid more than the average, varying between 140% of average in 1980 to 124% of average by 2000. 51 Covered employment refers to jobs covered by unemployment insurance, which includes most wage and salary jobs but does not include sole proprietors, seasonal farm workers, and other classes of employees. Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis September 2009 ECONorthwest Page 85 I' r, l . ii" "Jl Iliil'" iiil[:' ;:1: :;\,111 :: I '!I '11!llil II ~a~le;A-4. Covered employment in Lane C~untY, ~980-2000 , ' Change '1980 to' 2000 'sector 1980 1990 2000 Differen'cePercent AAGR , ~gr~cu,lture, :F9re,~try & Fi~~ing 1,137 1!863, ,2,101 ,:' 964, 850/0 ',' ')2.5~/o ,Mining" ',:", 231 ~ ,t?9 ' ,15,4 ,,::' ,,-77 -330/0, .:.1.6~/o. Construction , '- 4,600, ;3,992' "6,834 ,,' 2,234 490/0' '1~~O(o , Manufactur~ng 1~,~'38'" ,'20,6~4,: 23,6~~ 4,020. 200/0 0.70/~ Trans., Comm.;, & ',Utilities '3';83~: /:;,' 3,750': ' 3,845 '9 ,00/0 O.oo/~ Wholesale Trade ?,578" , 5,900' '~,422 844 15010 0.60/0 Retail Trade : " : 20,299, 24,429,' 28,7588,459 ,420/0 ' , 1.40/0 Fil1ance,~nsurance & Real Estate '4,217 :" ,4,523 ,6,198 .1,981 470/0' 1.60/0, Services 'i8,,27~ ,27,81~,' 3!J;2~6 ,20,964 1150/0' 3.10/0 , NOI"!c1asslfiable/all others 13, 50", .. 37 ,24' , ~850/0 4.30/0, ;, Government 19,779' 20,219,' 22,453 :' 2,674,: ,140/0' , ,0.50/0' Total ',' '" 97,600 113,376 139,696 ' '42,096 , 430/0 ,';,1:40/0' , , Source: 6regbn'EmploymentDepartme~t, Oregon ~aborMarket Information System, Covered Employmerit&Wag~s.,' SummarY by industry and percentages calculated by ECONorthwest' " ,,' , ' , , "Note: ,AA~R is av~rage annual groWth rate ' ,,' , , 'J, ' , ' "T~bl~ 1\-5 'shows 'the ch~gein~9yered~p1pI6ym~~~ bys~cto~ f<)l~ ~~e, ' ,Coupty b~twe~n 20Q1 an4, 2007. E~pl~ymentincreas~d by ~3i~49 j9bsot 10% ,during, thi~ per~o~.' ~e p!ivate. sectprs with the largest' increases iri . " ,,'numbers of employees w~reAdm,41istra1;ion Support arid Cleanmg,Reta.'i1 , ,Trade, C'onstru~tion, ~d Heaith~d Spcial Assistance. The sector thatl()st" , ~e greates(nuniber of em.ployees duringthi~ perio~ was Agricu)tu!e~ ' Forestry I Fishing"and Mining. , , ., ' " Table A-5~ Covered enlploymentinLan9 County, 2001-2007 , ,i Change 2001 to 2007 " Sector , 2001 2007 Difference Percent AAGR Natural Resources and Mining , 2,338 2,062 -276 -12% -2.1% Construction 6,366 , 8,034 1,668 260/0 4.0% Manufacturing 19,697 19,864 167 1% 0.1% Wholesale 5,300 6;071 771 15% 2.3% Retail 17,912 19,755 1,843 100/0 1.6% Transportation & Warehousing 2,606 3,047 441 17% 2.6% Information 3,729 3,901 172 5% 0.8% Finance & Insurance 3,963 ,4,313 350 9% 1.4% Real Estate Rental & Leasing 2,508 2,530 22 1% 0.1% Professional, Scientific & Tech. Srv. 5,571 5,658 87 2% 0.3% Management of Companies 1,818 1,901 83 5% 0.7% Admin. Support & Cleaning Srv. 6,399 8,738 2,339 370/0 5.3% Education 1,067 1,389 322 30% 4.5% Health & Social Assistance 16,871 18,966 2,095 120/0 2.0% Arts, Entertainment & Recreation 1,542 2,163 621 40% 5.8% Accomodations & Food Services 11,746 12,737 991 8% 1.4% Other Services (except Public Admin.) 5,552 5,674 122 2% 0.4% Private Non-Classified 49 45 -4 -8% -1.4% Government 22,398 24,133 1,735 8% 1.3% Total 137,432 150,981 13,549 100/0 2.40/0 Source: Oregon Employment Department, Oregon Labor Market Information System, Covered Employment & Wages. Summary by industry and percentages calculated by ECONorthwest Note: AAGR is average annual growth rate Page 86 Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis ECONorthwest September 2009 'II I \ ;~'! i Table A-6 shows a summary of employment ip. Lane County in 2007. Tab~e A-6 shows the ten largest sectors in bold a~~ the top ten employer~, : sectors with'below average pay per' employee in red~ ~~ sectors wjth ab<?ye',averagepay per employee inblfte.'Table A-6 shows: , ' · COristniction,'ManUfactu~ing, qov~~ent, and'H:ealth a:nd ,Social Assistance 'were among the sectors with the greatest eIIlployment in Lane CoUnty and have ab~ve average 'pay per employee. These sectors accounted for 47% of employment or nearly 71,000 ' employees in Lane County. , , . Reta~, Accommodations and Fo04 Servi~es, and 'Administration " ahd Support and Waste Managem'ent were among the sectors with 'the greatest employment in Lane COiplty ~nd have ,below average' , ,payp~r' empl~yee.These sectors,acc6uilted for 27'% 'of elllploymenf ' 'or,more than,41,OOO employees In ~ane. c~imty." ' Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis September 2009 ECONorthwest Page 87 'ill' 'I III: ,I . II! V Page 88 Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis ECONorthwest September 2009 ----~!Ir ------------------- , 'I' EMPLOYMENT IN SPRINGFIELD i, T~ble A-7 shows a summary of ~onfidential e~l'loy~eIl-t da~ for Springfield in 2006. Springfield had 27;310 jobs'at 1,819 establishments in ' 2006, with ,an average firm size of 15 employees. The sectors with the greab:~st e~ployees were: Retail (13%), Govemme~t (13%)~ Health C~re and Social Assistance (11 %), and Manufacturir:ig (10%). These sectors accounted for ~7,863 or 65~ of Springfield's jobs. I' Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis September 2009 ECONorthwest Page 89 i"1I Iii p: I' ~ , , Ta~le A-7. Covered er:nployment in Springfield, 2006 ? ~ , Establish- Employees' , , . Sector'", Industry ments Number' % of Total :Agriculture, ~or~stry, ,Fi~~ing, and Mining 22 ',282 ' 1%" " Forestry and Logging: ' ';; " " , ,,; , 11 ',136 ' 0% Other Agricuiture, ForestrY, Fis~ing,and Mining' , :11 :,146 1% '. 11 .' '205 1 ~922 ,7% Construction , .' ,Ma~nufacturing , '104 2,714 '10% Wood Product Manufacturing , 18 1,013 4% Chemical Manufa~turing 3 ' 251 1% Fabricated Metal Product ,Manufa~turing , 1~ 233 1% Transportation Equipment Manufacturing 7 :188, 1% , Food Manufacturing 6 · 11,1 0% , , . . ~ PI~~tics and Rubbt?r ,ProductsManufact~rin~ 6 , 111 0%" ,F~rniture and Related ProduCt Manufacturing 9 " :80, 0% Machinery ManufaCturin'g '7 68 0% " I 'i, ' i ,qther Manufacturing , 30 ',659 2%" Whol~~ale Trade 1'1, , ,1 ,23~ " 5%" ~etail ,,:' , 265: 3,~3~ " ' 13%' , " Gel1eral Merchandise Stores' , ' 24 1,008 4% . Food' ~nd !Be~erag'e Stores' ': . t., . 42 ,"744 3% , Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers :" ' , ' , 35 '339. ",1% : Build.ing Material, ,Garden Equipment, ~ '~uppiies Dealers ,15 ' 278 1% Electronics and Applian~e. Stores ' 16 ' , 210 1% Other Retail 133" 1,053 4% , Transportation and Warehousing and Utilities 55 : 941" '3% Information ' 24 1 ,3~6 5% Finance and Insurance 99 1,1,10 4% Real Estate and Rental and ~easing 98 44~ 2% Professional, Scientific, and Tec~nical Servi~es ,97 : 576 2% Management of Companies and Enterprises 24 343 1% Admin. &_ Support ar:-d Waste Mgt Services 82 2~460 9% Private Educational Services ' 12 109 0% Health Care and Social Assistance 167 3,069, 11% Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 30 321 1% Accommodation and Food Services 179 2,453 9% Accommodation 12 227 1% Food Services and Drinking Places 167 2,226 8% Other Services 217 816 3% Government 68 3,535 13% Federal and State 13 368 1% Local 55 3,167 12% Total 1,819 27,310 100% Source: Oregon Employment Department Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW). Summary by industry and percentages calculated by ECONorthwest Note: The percent column does not add to 100% as a result of rounding errors. Map A-I shows employment in Springfield by plan designations and number of employees in 2006. Map A-I shows that employees are distributed throughout Springfield, with concentrations along Main Street and in Gateway. Page 90 ECONorthwest September 2009 Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis I' . -------------~-~----~- -- ---------. --- 11'11 Map A-2 shows the size of employers in Springfield by Plan Designation. Larger empl()yers are clustered along Main Street, in Gateway, and in , . other areas zoned for commercial and inq.ustrial use. Small employers are scattered ,in mos,t parts of the City. ' Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis September 2009 ECONorthwest Page 91 ~@~ui @~"'J. ~o@ .ro- ~~:, · .of 0, I I . . 0 0 0 '-n~ CJ '0 o. ~., .......:. ...J ~ rdl..~.. 0 :' u " 0 0 ' 0 0@01 0:;0 0 r:0 0 0 _0.' . ... 0 t/I) 0 0 0 .~ . 0 0" 0' 0 0 '0 00 0 Q '~<!Cao ~oo.-~o _ 0 ~:~ ,0 · ..l'!) 8. I · o 00 oS-) 0 1!(S0.Jl....0 o~..... ...".. F07c.o, , 0,00 0 ' 0 -. 0 0 ~ 0 0 L...:--r . .. : 0 .. ... , .~ o 0 E)" ' 0 i ,I 0 0 0..0 00. 8 0,.0 ! 0 0 !;;,..-o 00 0" ~.ooo, 0 ." O:~:O 100 " 000 '0 f!' 0 ~o ,8 0 " " ,,@).o. ~. Wl; ~,O_.. 000, 0 o:,.'@2, '~ '-~ ,0 @) I OQ~"f'lID , . ' .. 00 0($)0 ' f, 0 "."'ltJ,' '0;>..,\ 0 0:' ,,', 0 0 o~:o 00 ooo~ o€> :. "0" ::, :,@oo,' '0. " , , " ,. "0' 0"'" · ;':0.':, 0 ~ cta"",",'" , '...o~o~ .. , ..~ ~~ 0.' .- _8 .. .., I O. "" 'o.~ O~Cboo t.! 0 0 "',' 0 A. '@)I 0 , '~ " '8 :~:"':: f< 0 0 W . o ", ~'~ '1' 0". '0 ~, . 0 /~ 0'" 0 0 , 0 ,( " :...: ~,'. " ~': t . 00.0 0 ',' . 0 '#';' ' !",' , 0, O@o' " .. , , ,1.,.,J.f""~' 0 0 ,~ 0 0 0 00 , '0 'o{) : i 0 '.0, ,,~ 0 ." 0," 0 0,' B f .' " ' 00 0 ;.. , 0 0 0, ':"'0 oo"'~ 0 ,!" '.- 0 ' 0 0 0, .. g' _ . 0 G> · .,,~ 7 ' .~(.~'~..;;. ':::;;.' ~:.~Q o:oo~:~~~~'o~;:O ~~,;:. , , ,........,;.:,001'-\, @)o, ' dI~~V"""O. 0',0 oo...::,.'~o.,~..:V 00000" ~,o<:::li@.""o""'oO. ~' ' · 0 _~... . '"''0', 0 ~o o. , ',0" 0... . Q" ,~., 0 '.. ~' 0 o .3 . '000 _""""W , I ,,0 '", . ~ r.lIO 0 "." 0 .. '" . . ' .OJ ~ . jO 0 " nO 0 0 ,,' 'WQ e." . ,~ ' : '. "<OJ 0 0 . 0 ' ~o' J EtJ :. · (T. 0 . . e.<, " ' , "~o,O~~'r'''~~'~~ . ~~~] '. ....0 ~;" cO 0 00 , "-"; '/& P:;~~o~o" . " \B'Ir~":~'J'," , 0<)0,. ," "" .,: . ,"'.0' 0..' ",:'. .' '.:.~ . 0 0 0 ;. 0 000 0 . 0 00 . 0 - 0 . 0 "0 0 . 0 . . . 0 00 0 00 0 @) 0 0 0 00 0 o. 0 0 00 0 0' .. .0, .... 0 0' o o. 0' lb 00 9 ,0 o . , 0 , 10 ',0, ~'.o . [- 1;: of Employees Springfield 2006 City of Springfield Oregon Legend City Limits D Urban Growth Boundary 2006 Employment o 0 - 25 '0 '0 o .26 100 '.'" ,101 - ,300 .e '1,,000 " ',301 < '~ . . i ~\ 0- , '0 i < c 'r 0._- . o II ' ' 0, F~nNnrihIlI.1Dc:t Anril ?OnR :!~ . o 0 o o o ; .... o o 0 o .. o. o 0 o 00 o "" 00 0 ,01', ~o oQ o 0 '0 , ,00 .'. : o ' , 0, ,., 0 o o ,0 '0 . (. ~ ., '0 t o 0 0, ' 0, .. : 0: ..': o ,0 ' 0, - o o ',' , 0, , 0, o o. .0 o 0' , 0' .' <~, 0' \ (!), o and Type Springfield 2006 City of Springfield Oregon Legend City Limits D Urban Growth Boundary Industrial 0' 0' - 25 o 26 - 1 00 . 101 '300,' /~< j' . 3011 000" e <~', ".,"1001 5000., ',:000 , -, ; . 00 '<~". 0 ., 0 ': ~; 0 "0 ,0';, ~' :'i.,: '.:oooo'i.';<~' 0, a.~' 0,,00 _ ,0 0 _ 0" ~OD Q ~. ,!o.~,~< 0""1 o,.~Oo~, ,'lI'::.~r~~:, ..,' . ,:.\~~"f( :r:. '~\~; . UU' ,. ~' ',,~Other/ " o ".0, ~, 25,',/ 'o"';~~ :' ",' '. , \.' /" ";,,. 'l;r .'x ,. ,:: .~ """"..",::-:-, r . f\...,ji, """ , , , ; ~ ." 1 001'. - 5000, ,'.: \ " '1 <' o 0 "." : i: ~ i ill j ,llliI:l!i"II!' ,I ':il "I Firms wanting to expand or locate in Springfield will be looking for a variety ,of site and building characteristics~ d,epend41g on'tl}e ~dustry and specific cir'cumstances. One way to d~scril;>~ site needs, is 'tp grqup, " , industrIes based on building and site characteristics. Each 'sector has been . t111i;quel);~ssigued to a,i;trP~c'al"l building type/ gr6uped',by 0dustrial 'arid " " commercial iises. " " , , ," , , Tab,le A-8~ c:onverting employr:nent t~ building types Building Type Industrial Types of industries NAICS Sectors , " Warehousing & WD Distribution ,,' 'Transportation'& WholeSale Trade .48-:49, 42 ' 1,1, 21,~2, 23,31':'33: , " . G(,Gen~rallndustrlai Ag"Mining, Utlilities,Construction, 'Man'ufactu~ing , Commercial , Office ' Office " Retail' ' Retail Medical & ' "Governm~nt " Med/Gov. Institutions, I nfo'rmation , FIRE, Profess'ional Srv, Mgtof , Compari:ies,:l:\d~in& ~upport & Waste Mgt, , Utilities, Arts/Entertainment, Other Services , Retail (incl. Accom & Food Srv) , 51-56,71,81 44.A5,72 , Source: EcbNorthwe~t based on methodology u~ed by Metro in the report "Urban Growth Report: An ' Employ~ent Need Ai1~lysi~," 2002' '... " 'He~lth'& Social Services, Public Admini~iration' 61, 62, ,92 " Table A-9 shows employment by ComprehenSive P~ail Designatio~ i~ 2006. About 39%,of Springfield's etrtployment is located iIi. commerCial plan designa~ons, with mqre than 8,000 employe~s'in the Comtriercial designation. An additional 34% of the City's employment is located in , industrial designations. Ab:out 1~ % of Springfield's employment is located in residential designations with 10% in the Low Density Reside~tial designation. . Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis September 2009 ECONorthwest Page 95 (, Table A-g. Covered employment by Plan Designation, Springfield, 2006 Industrial Commercial Total Plan Designation , . ~mp.' Pe~cent . ,Emp. ' Percent Emp. Percent Commercial Com rT)ercia I ' 450 5.7% 7,649 39.8% 8,09~ 29.9% Major Retail Center 20 0.3% ,2,316 ' 12.1% 2,336 8.6% Subtotal ' , 470 6.0% 9,965 51.9% 10A35 38.5% Government Government & Education 67 0.9% 660 3.4% 727,' 2.7% Industrial Campus Industrial. 274 3.5% 2,142 11.1% ' 2,416 ' 8.9% Heavy Industrial, Special, 'Heavy Industrial, and Scmd and Gravel 2,908, 36.9% 304' 1.6% 3,212, 11.7% Light Medium Industrial.. ' 3,032 38.5% 645 3.4% 3,677 13.6%' Subtotal 6,214 ,78.9% 3;091 16.1% '/9,305 34.3% Mixed-Use ' , Commercial Mixed Use 318 4.0% 1 ,450 7.5% 1,768 6.5% Light Med In'd Mixed Use and Medium Density Res Mixed 113 1.4% 169 0.9% 282 "0.7% Subtotal 431 5.5% 1,619 8.4% , 2,050 7.6% , Residential , High Density Re~ide~tial 0 0.0% 456 2.4% 456 1.7% Low Density Residential 592 7.5% 2,093 10.9% 2,685 9.9% , Medium DenSity Residential 100 1.3% 1,082 5.6% 1,182 4.4% Subtotal 692 8.8% 3,631 18.9% 4,323 ' 16.0% other Parks and Open Space 0 0.0% 250 1.3% 250 0.9% TOTAL 7,874 100.0% 19,216 100.0% 27,090 , 100.0% Source: Oregon Employment Department Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) and Springfield GIS data; calculations and analysis by ECONorthwest ' Note: The number of employees shown in Table A-9 (27,090) is fewer than shown in Table A-7 (27,310) because of data issues between the QCEW and GIS data. Table A-I0 shows the estimated covered employment located in non- residential plan designations by type of building in Springfield in 2006. More than half of Springfield's employment in 2006 was located in Office and Retail buildings. More than two-thirds of Springfield's firms were located in Office and Retail buildings. Page 96 ECONorthwest September 2009 Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis (I'" " ,,1:1' " I j" :"1 II Ii ':/1' , I 'II' :1: ,I!i Table A-10. Estimated covered employment in non-residential plan designation~ by ~pe of , , buildil1g, Springfield, 2006 , ' ' Employees f ' ' Firms -,- Building; l , " ,Type NUl11ber ' Percent Number Perc~nt WD 2,'457 11% ,50 8% ,GI 4,336 20% 101 17% Office 6,212 28% 192 31%' Retail 5,500 ' 25% 220 36% Med/Gov 3,604 16% 49 ' 8% Total " '22,109 100% ,612, 100% Source: ECONorth~est ~ased on Q~EW data J'able'A-ll,shqws the distdbutiqh of einplQyeesbybuildipgtypeartd site' s~~ ~ i1o~~residenti.a~ plan ~esigriati~n~"in Springfield In 2Q06~' ~bout ~2% " of Springfield' s errlJJloy~el)t is on sites 5 to,20 acres, 21%, is on' s~tes less ' ' than)-:ac~e,~d 19% ,IsDn sites greater th(ill50acres. ' :'. ," ''',' Table A-11.'Percent'of empl>oyees by t;>uildi'n'g tYpe'a'nd~i~e sizes, Sp'ringfiel~, 2Q~6, ' , Site Size (acres) , , , B~i1di~g Type WD GI Office' Retail Med/Gov Total Less than 1 13% 15% : 28% ,29% 9% 21% 1 to 2 '6% , 17% ,14% 1'3% 4% 12% 2 to 5 5 to 20 '3% ,63% ~ 7% 18% 15% 23%' 11 % 18% 8% 5% 12% 22% ,20 to 50 '12%' ,2%," 13% '100(0 35%' 13% Greater ttiai:J 50 3% 31% 8% 18% 38% 19% Total Employees , , 100% 100% 190% ,100% 100% 100% ' Source: ECONorthwest based on QCEW data Note: Total Employees may not add to 100% because of rounding errors. The percent of employees by building type and site size was calculated based on the number of employees in each building type and site size categories using QCEW data and CitY of Springfield tax lot data. BUSINESS CLUSTERS One way to assess the types of businesses that are likely to have future growth in an area is to examine relative concentration and employment growth of existing businesses. This method of analysis can help determine relationships and linkages within in industries, also called industrial clusters. Sectors that are highly concentrated (meaning there are more than the II average" number of businesses in a sector in a given area) and have had high employment growth are likely to be successful industrial cluster. Sectors with either high concentration of businesses or high employment group may be part of an emerging cluster, with potential for future growth. Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis September 2009 ECONorthwest Page 97 r- II' ': Ti'l!' \ .1;11 The Oregon Economic and ,Community Development Department (OECDD) prepared a .report titled II Oregon' s Trad~d ,Clusters: Major Industries and Tre~ds." This report iden;t:ifted 25, clusters in Lane County. · Bu~iness Services. This cluster. is do~fuated by Professional, Scie~tific, and Technical Services and Employ~ent ~ervices. The average annual 'wage varies by sector, with the highest' pay in Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services (about $51,800). Employment growth in these industries wa~ m~derate to fast between 2003 and 2005. Business Services firms may be, attracted to Springfield as a 'result of firm~ located In Springfield, the availability of educated workers within ~e region, and the ~gh , <iua~ty oflif~ and access to recreation in Springfield~ , , · Comll.1unication Equipment This cluster includes manufacturing " and wholesaliJ:lg of computer, communications, and audio and, video eqnipmellt. Lane County has chistEirs of both man~~~turing and wholesaliJ:lg communication equipinentbutthe manufacturing, clusb~r is bigger in the County. Employment growth in,the cluster' , wa~ fastest in computer and peripheral manufac~ringbetween ' 2003 and 2005. The average annual wage ,in thiss~ctor is higher' " than ~e State average, at $68,076. Firms in this cluster may be attracted to Springfie.ld as the City's location and access to transportation, the avail~bility of educated workers within the region, and the high quality of life arid access to recreation in Springfield. . Information Technology. This clust~r includes Telecommunications, Software Publishers, and Internet Service Providers. The average annual wage was above State averages. Growth in the cluster varied between 2003 and 2005, wIth a decrease in Telecommunications employment and increases in employment with Internet Service Providers. Information Technology firms may be attracted to Springfield because of the availability of educated workers within the region and the high quality of life and access to recreation in Springfield. Springfield may be attractive as a location to outsource back-office functions for larger Information Technology firms. . Logistics and Distribution. This cluster includes truck transportation and warehousing. This cluster grew during the 2003- 2005 period, with the greatest growth in Truck Transportation. Wages in this cluster were similar to State averages. Firms in this cluster may be attracted to Springfield as the City's location relative Page 98 ECONorthwest September 2009 Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis - '1>__ '!'I: .' , j, '~ > J ',.' j '... , ~'. > i to otij.er,cities in the Willamette Valley and Ot:egon and the access to trartsP(Utatio~vi~'I~5andlli~~wa~ 126. 0 0".. . 0.. 0 · , : )\1ed~cal pr?4~~~s. ,ThIs ctu~;te'~.~c~U:~es ,~e~i_~~~ ~d ',eqlJip~eR-t ' , , suppli;~s m~ufac~rmg. !Ns'~ec~()rh~~ ~g~~r','~~ aV,e~a,g~,: ~~~~s ::..: : :' ana had moderate employ;ment gr()wth ~uririg' the:~OO~ t~ ~005' :' ',' :: ,"p~riod. F~l'Ins m~y be attracted to $pringfleicf a~ '~ result offirpis'; :', " ': "locat~d ~ Springfield; t4e, ava~ability of educated ~ork~rs witpin '~e region, and the high ,qti~lity of lif~ and access t~)recreation~, " Sprmgfiel? ',;, ',' " , " : ,{ ~ >: . " , '. ,,'j , . , . . ~'. . · l\Ae~als ~ndRe~'aled Products'.:Th!sclu~tet~,~cludes metals: " "yuuuifacturing, ,including Fabri~at~4, Metals NI,~ufa.c~ringan~ ' , , ':PrllnaryMetciJ~ 'Manufac~rmg. A1tho~g~ emp19y~en~:~ectea,s,ed , " ",' :,ii;l ~s~l~s~er over the 20Q3,-2005period,l~~~ Couhtyh(is 'the,;" ' , ,,'largest sluster of Metal Wholesa:Iers' ~utslde:'~f t~e" portl~d,' ',' ." ,', " "W~tr9P9li~area. Wa'ges,m this cluster.w.er~'general afqt a1;>~~}v'~, " '?tate :aV:~rages..Fil'lris may'be a:ttract~d 'to Si>,ringfleld"as' a tes~l{of ; , ,.'" ',' ~xi~ting busine~ses' an9- tll'e availClb~tyof lilbot:, -:' " ' . . " ; ,'. . \ ' , , . . .' '\ " > .' " . . , .', '. . . : '."Process~d' fO,ods and' B~~~rages,.,This c~uster in~ludes ,'i" ,', , mainifacturing 'of. f~od and be.ve~ages. ~mploYIllent ~ f4is'clustet , decre~sed ov~r the 2~03-2()05 penpd'and average wages in this' , ' ,'~luster are at or below State averages~ Firms'may be'attracted to " , Spi'ingfie~d as a result of the City's prox~ity ~o fo'o,d growers ~d 'the availability of labor., ' , · ,'Wood and Other Forest Products. This' chister includes w~od product manufacturing, logging, pap~r making, and support' activities. The average annual wage was below State averages and employment grew slowly within the cluster over the 2003-2005 period. Firms may be attracted to Springfield as a result of the City's proximity to natural resources and the availability of labor. Table A-12 shows potential growth sectors in Springfield, based on existing concentrations of employment and the Oregon Employment Department's (OED) forecast for employment growth over the 2006-2016 period. Sectors with high employment concentration and high growth forecasts are the industries most likely to grow. These sectors are: Health and Social Assistance; Administrative and Support and Waste Management Services; Construction; and Accommodations and Food Services. Springfield may have opportunities for growth in sectors that the OED forecasts will have high growth but Springfield does not currently have Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis September 2009 ECONorthwest Page 99 " " ~ II -- I, I, hig~ concentr~tioris ~: ,Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation; Manag~ment of Companies and, Enterpri~es; Professional, Scientific, and Technical ; Servi,ces; aild Pri\:ab:~ Educ~tional?~rvices. " ,,' ' ' ',' , . ',' , , , j ", ~ I' , , . ':T~bl~A~12~,Pot~nti~1 groWt~ :bf, indLis!'ries ,ir'l Spring~~,ld', ' , " " ' " ::, Lo~ Employment Growth" ,<" ,::: High Employm~nt G,rowth,Pr~jectio~,' , ' : ' ProjeCtion for Lane CountY' , ' for .Lane Cou'n~ ' " " , , ' ' High Employment Concentration in Springfield (relative to Oregon) , 'Information, " " Health Care & Sodal Assistance Finance & Ins~rance " ' Admin.,& Support,& Waste Mgt Srv.. , ,Trans'portation,'Wa,rehou~ing & Utilities' Construction' .. " Re,al Estate & Rental &'Leasing, Acconimodatio'n & Food Srv.' "Wholesale Trade" " , Lowl:mploymE!~t Co"cen~i'ation ii:l Sprin,gfield (rela,tive t() Oregon),,' , ' , ": G?vern!ll~nt ., ' , Arts;' ,Entertainment; & R'ec~eati9n ': ' , , ",'Other'S~: ",' " ' ,,' " ManagementofC9mpcuiies,& ~nterprises' , ; , , ,Manuf?ctur~nQ Prof~,ssional, Scie,ntlfic,& T ech,ni'c,al' Srv. , "Retail, ' '"". '" , ,',,' Private Educational Srv. ", 'Agriculture, 'ForestrY,' Fishing; '& Mining' ,s()ur~: Ore~on E~ployment D~p~rtme;nt;' caicul~tiqnsby, ~C9r-Jdrthwesi " , ",~EG,ION'AL B,U'~INE'SS',ACTI'VITY' . Spr~gfield existS within with:'Euge~e-Sp,rillgfieI4 regional econo~'y~." Springfield is able to attract l~bo~fr());n, across the region, Springfield , , employers and residents benefi~ from, trainirig opportunities present in '.' Eugene (e.g., the University of Oregon arid Lane COnllllunity College), , and Springfield businesses ,and r~sidents, are effected py econo~ic ~ctlvity , within the region. This section presents the large-scal~ regional business activities. ' . Peace Health at RiverBend. Peace Health has built a'new hospital complex at RiverBend and will complete the transition of staff from the University District facility to RiverBend by the end of Sept. 2008. The RiverBend campus will have 2,500 PeaceHealth employees, in occupations including: physicians, nurses, medical technicians, other medical staff, environmental services staff, and food services staff. PeaceHealth started relocating administrative and other staff to the RiverBend Annex in 2006, which has 700 employees. The RiverBend campus will afuact additional firms. For example, Oregon Medical Labs, Oregon Imaging Center, and the Northwest Specialty Clinics will have approximately 350 staff and physicians at the RiverBend campus. The RiverBend Pavilion will have about 300 employees, at the Oregon Medical Group, Oregon Imaging, and other medical businesses. Page 100 ECONorthwest September 2009 Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis , ii r, : I , , , , PeaceHealthpl~s to further develop the RiverBend campus to : ;' ptcl~de,.awide rang~ of uses: a'mixture:of housing typ~s, offic~ " ," ' : ,and c9in#lerp~al support serVi<;es, r~~il~ ,and e~ucationaJ and ,:' " "',' t.e$,ea,rch ~t~q~, to ~upp~~t. coll~b9r'a#ops ~ith b~eg~n ':', . ,,', , " ' l:Iealth,Setyice~ Uiliv~~sity:,~Cl, ~e' ~WY,ersiij,()rOi~g~Il.,';'" " " , StUdies for the RiverBendjnaster plap'lridicated ~~t'ther~ may , be demand for'cidditlonal office d~veloptnent (.490,000-500,000 square feet) ~d cOmmerci~lr~tiilseivices (50,009 to'70,QOO " , : square feet). ' · 'MaIiufacturing~'M~~a~~ring, ~s ~po~tantto ,the economy in ",' ',~pringfiel~, ,and m 'Lane"COUrlo/ .< M~ufacturing ~ccourit~d ~or ' J4% of employm~~t(mo~~ thari20,OOO jobs) in Lan~ Co~tyand '10%of~mploymertt,(m6r~,than 2,700j6bs)illSpr~gheld in' 2006,.5i.' '",', ,,' ," ", " ,,", ,',... ,',,' ,,"',', ,,' i ' ", . , . , , ~. " '. . l " Mainifathrrmgis,a,b;adedse~1:oririd~'stiy,"-whic~br~gs: ' , "rev~nue ~to Oreg'oIl ari,d LapeCoWitY ,fro~ outs~de~e Sta1:~. " · The:follo~ing'IIlanufac.tiIr~g iTIdus~ies ,:ac'cotlnted f()rtwo- , thirds ($11 billion:) , ofreye,IUie from ~xportS ip 'Oregon :m,,20p7: C6J?ipriter & ElectrQmc 'Pr,odu~#o,n,'Ti~porta~()n ",' ,'," E'luipment,Mac~erY' Manuf~c~rers" Chemi~aI " ,'. ,,: < qMcinutatture, and Prpn~lfy, Metal Manufacturer's.53The~e :- , 'industries are all present in Lane County; ,aCCOlillqllg for 44 % , ofmanufactuiingemployment in the County. gtherexport .,' , industries with substantial employment ill 'Lane County are: , Woods Products Manufacturing,' Food Manuf(lcturing,and Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturmg.54 ' o Rec,reationaI Vehicles. Lane County has a cluster of recreational vehicles (RV s) manufacturers and retailers. Two of Lane County's largest manufacturers are Monaco Coach and County Coach. Employment in RV manufacturing has declined since 2006 as a result of declining demand for RV s due, in part, to increases in gasoline costs. High energy costs may continue to depress demand for RV s, at least in the next two to five years. 52 Oregon Employment Department 53 "Economic Data Packet, Mary 2008," Oregon Economic And Community Development Department 54 Oregon Employment Department Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis September 2009 ECONorthwest Page 101 , I " l' ",'t, o Wood Products and Paper Manufacturing. Manufacturmg : ,timber-related produ(:ts ,~as historically been a source of ',., : ':'eD;lpl<?y~e~tand'e~po,~t$ ill Lane Co~ty. 'Employment hi' ,', , ,thesem4ustdes hasJ-h~cliried since th~ ~980's:'1?,u~ cont4tu~'s~Q , 'accq~tf6r ~~~~'.tJ;:1aJj oi1e~qua~te~ otm~u1a2t4~~g "" """"" employ~e~t'i.J1 La~e ,County in 20Q~:C~ritiriuea~hanges:'; create UD-certa~tY 'for fUture'~inploymentip. tQese industries. For~xamp~e, W eyerhaeus~r, one of Lan~ Courtty'.s largest , emPloyers, announced in 'March 2008 that it was s~llirig , se~~ral 'f~cilities ~ 9regon and Lane <;:o~ty tc? In~~mational Paper Corporation~ It is unclear whether arid hoW: Ws'sale , ,'willi~pact empl9yinent in paper manufac~ring. " ' ., 'c~lic~~~ers. rite 'tIelld tqwards' domestic ,o~tso'qrcing,bf back~ : : '.,' ()ffic~'functiorts li~sJ~a4 several~()lnparuestq,locat~call (:enters ' , . ':'in ~eEugE:ne~Spr~gfiefci ar~a>The)a~gest~IrioIig these~~';: " , c~~t.~rs is,Symante~,locC}ted ,inSp'ringfield~: O~~rr~c~nt c~ll; " , centers 'to locate inthe"'Eugene-SpringfieI~ are~, in;clude,,1{9y~1 , Caribbe~,and, E~terpris~~ :1be:E;~ge~e~Springfielcl;s trained" l~bor ,pool bfrelati~~ly low-cost 'Yorkers >fot call c~nters ,giv~s tl:ien;~gionan advantage for aijIac:titlg addltio~~~tall centers. '. ToUrism. Touri~~bri~gs'econ~micactivity into ap ar'ea from outside sources. Tourism expenditures ,in, Lane County in 2006 grew 7.5%, t~ $5'53 million, exc~edillg the statewide tourism , growth rate for the.year~ Toudsm accounts for ab01.1t 7,500 jobs in Lane C~unty .55 '," A major source of tourism spending is overnight accommodations. In' 2008, the Eugene-Spririgfield Region has 3,118 total rooms. Since 1997, 629 limited service hotel rooms were added. During the same period, 377 full service rooms, 92 limited service rooms, and 15,464 square feet of meeting space have closed.56 Figure A-5 shows the hotel occupancy rate in the Eugene- Springfield Region from fiscal year 1998 to fiscal year 2008. The Region's occupancy rate varied from 59% in fiscal year 2002 and 2003 to 72 % in fiscal year 2006. 55 Convention & Visitors Association of Lane County Oregon, CVALCO 56 Convention & Visitors Association of Lane County Oregon, CVALCO Page 102 ECONorthwest September 2009 Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis "iii, ,'I 'I' [ , 'ili I Figure ~-5. ,Hotel room occupancy rate, Eugene-Springfield Region,: Fi,scal Years 1,998 to 2008 ' ' , ~ 8p', .e 79,:: ca 0::: '60 ~ :>. g 50 ca g. -40' (.) ,(.) 30 o 'e, 20 o 0, '10 0:::, b ',,' j 1,' ,97/98 , 99/00 ' 01/02 03/04 ,05/06 ' ,,07/0 Fiscal Year J/. " , Sourc~:Converition & Visi'tors Associa~,ion,oiLa~e County Oregon,' CVALCO ' , Note.: 2008 data curreflt thr()ug~ Marc~ 2008,:, ' ,Spririgfi.eid ~eviesa9.5%~'tfansientlodging ta~ on'.ov~rnight", ' accommop~tions."~pripgfield'slodging-ta?,rate Is'9.9%~ Table A~13 shows traIlSi'~ntiodging tax r~venrie 'tor Lane County and ' Springfield for #scal year 2000 tbrough2008. Spr~gfield' slodging , tax revern~e va#edfrom $1.2 ~on in fi,~cat year 2004 to $1~6 ' million in fiscal year 2007. Springfield's tral}sientlodging'ta* revenues a~counte~ for, apout'one-quarterof toted County revenues. ,', ' , ' , " ' . , , Table A-13. Transient lodging tax revenue~, Lane County and Springfield, Fiscal Years 2000 to2~08 Fiscal Year 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Lane County $4,753,583 $4,834,210 $4,865,320 $4,820,662 $5,095,869 $5,378,361 $6,016,364 $6,611,718 $5,103,490 Springfield $1,366,788 $1,314,714 $1,265,825 $1,275,426 $1,187,367 $1,242,653 $1,504,813 $1,597,994 $1,235,685 Springfield's 0/0 of County 290/0 270/0 260/0 260/0 230/0 230/0 250/0 240/0 240/0 Source: Convention & Visitors Association of Lane County Oregon, CVALCO Note: 2008 data current through March 2008 · Agriculture. Agricultural production is an important component of Lane County's economy. In 2002, Lane County had approximately $88 million in total gross sales from agriculture. Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis Page 1 03 September 2009 ECONorthwest 'I'" 1111' !I II' 11" , Table A-14 shows the top five agricultural products in Lane County in 1997 an~ 2002. Lane County's agriculture products'with th~ greatest value of ~ales in 2002 were Nursery ($~l inillion) and Milk ; & d~iry ($~0.3 miJ#on)j Milk & diaryh~d ~e laiges~' a,:erage sales val~~ pe~ ,farm ($1.1 million), nearly 9.o:ubJe the 1997 average sales " vaJu,e' for dairies in '1997 ($0.6 IDi11lon)'. This change may indicate ,that dairies have grown larger over the five~yeclf period. Other important changes are th~ decrease in val~e of ,sales for poultry and eggs (down $4.2 million) cattle and 'calves (down $2.2 , ,~illion). The decrease in sales for cattle and calve~ may be' ' expla41e~ by t4e de~rease of 248 farms with cattle 'and c(llves. '. . , " ' .' Table A~14. Six agricultural products with 'the tlighest sales valu~~ Lane Co~ntY 1997 and ,2002,' , ',,'" ECONorthwest September 2009 Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis '~ver~ge ' .. ~alu~.. ~f.. , ~ales per ' "Farm, ~' 100,966 $ 1,143,333 $ 9,784 $ 17,495 $ 38,419 , $ 27,151 ' $ 69,958 $ 9,523 $ 562,000 $ 22,581 NA NA OUTLOOK FOR GROWTH IN SPRINGFIELD Table A-15 shows the population forecast developed by the Office of Economic Analysis for Oregon and Lane County for 2000 through 2040. Lane County is forecast to grow at a slower rate than Oregon over the 2005 to 2030 period. The forecast shows Lane County's population will grow by about 96,600 people over the 25-year period, a 29% increase. Over the same period, Oregon is forecast to grow by more than 1.2 million people, a 35% increase. Page 104 Item 2002 Total Sales " NurserY: green~o~se,f1oiiculture, & sod ," Milk & other dairy productsfrom cows ' Cattle, & calves , Fruits, tree nuts, & berries Vegetables, melons, potatoes, & sweet potatoes Poultry & eggs 1997 Total Sales PoultrY & eggs Cattle & calves Milk & other dairy products from cows Fruits, tree nuts, & berries Vegetables, melons, potatoes, & sweet potatoes Nursery, greenhouse, floriculture, & sod Source: USDA Census of Agriculture, 2002; Calculations by ECONorthwest Note: The definition of the following categories of farm products changed between 1997 and 2002: Nursery, greenhouse, floriculture, and sod; Other crops and hay; and vegetables, melons, potatoes, and sweet potatoes. These changes prevent direct comparison between the Total Sales of these agricultural products in 1989 and 2002. Value of ' ,.;, Sales, " Farms '$21,001,000 ' $10,290,000 $ 7,622,000 $ 6,683,000 $ '5,955,000 ,'$ 5,919,000 208 9 779 ,382 155 218 $10,'074,000 ' $ 9,780,000 $ 7,306,000 $ 6,842,000 NA NA 144 1,027 13 303 NA NA I 'Ii Table A-15. State population forecast, OregQn and Lane County, 20.~0 tp ~040 ,', Lane :Year:, , Oregon 0 , c:o!Jn,tJ, , ,2000 3,~36!?~9:'3?~;9.?0 i' , '2005, ,3,61~,.2g9 ~3,3,8?5 " '2010 3,843,:900 '347,494 , 2015 4,09?,708 ,365,639 2020 4,359,2,58 387,574 2025 " 4,626,,015 409,159 2030 4,891,225',A30,454 , , ~035 ' 5,154,793 451,038 2040 ' 5~425,408 471,511, Change ~Oo.5 ,to 2030 ' " ' ,', ' " Af:nount" '" 1,273,~25'(': 96,599," , o/o'ChiJ'nge '~50!0 " ,290/0 '" "'AAGR ' '" ' i.20/0, ," (00/0 .' ". , , '. '. , , I",.,.. , SourCe: Office of Ec()~ornicArialysis ,,', ,:":, , ,Note: AAGR is,a~erage anf1IJ~1 growth ra1e . 'Table 'A-16~ho~stl1e ~re'gon Ell1pioyme~tDepattment' s f<?rec~st for ' , ' erriployment"gr.owth, bY,iJ::lti~strY ~or, ~~e Co~tY: ove(the 2006 'to 2016 . period. Jbe,sect~r~ lliafwil) leaq. e:rr,lploym~ntgr~wth in Lane County,for ' the ten-year period'areI-iealth Care' & Social Assistance (addmgS,600' , jobs), Gove~ent (~dding 3,600 jobs), Prof~s~ional and BusinessServices (adding 3,000 jobs), Leisure & Hospitality (adding 2,800 jqbs), and Retail Trade (adding2,400 jobs). Together, these sectors are expected to add 17,400 new jobs ,or 76% of emploYtnent grow~ in Lane County. Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis September 2009 ECONorthwest Page 105 : Ii' . ~::; . I ~: i! Ii: Table A-16. Nonfarm employment forecast by industry in Lane County, 2006-2016' . Se~or} InqustrY ,'~ . Natu~al r,~sources & N!ning :; Construction' ' , M~nufacturing , , Durable Goods Wood prod cut mfg. Transportation equip. mfg. Nondurable goods, ' Transportation, & utilities Wholesale trade" Retail trade , Informat'ion , , Financia,l activities , Profession~l&. bu~iness !irv., , , Administrative &' support srv. ' Equcati()n " ... ' ' ' Health c:clre &. soCial assist. Health care' , " " ,Leisure ~ hospitality "'" , Aq:<?mmodation & food srv., , Foodsrv. & drinking places Other 'srv. ' Goverpment Federal government State government State education Local government Local education Total nonfarm employment 2006" 900 : ' 8,000 , 20,300 16',300 4,700 4,400 4,000 3,300 5,900. ' 19,700 ,3,700 8,300 , , 16,100 ' 8;?00 1,500 18,100 , 15,400 ' 14,200 12,100 10,700 5,100 28,400 1,800 '11,300 ' 8,700 15,400 , 8,600 153,400 Change. 2006- 20~~ 2016, Amount % Chang'e ' , ' , ,900 " 0 ' 00/0 " 9,~OO 1,200 150/0 ' 21,000 700 30/0 16,900 ' 600 ' 40/0 , 4;500 - 200 -'40/0 4,700 ' , 300 70/0 4,100 100 ]0/0 3,700 400 120/0 6,500 ,~OO "10,0/0 22,10~ 2,400 ' 12010' 4,100 400 '110/0 9,300' '1,000, " 120/0 19,100 3,OPO 190/0 ,9,700 ,,1,500 180/0 1,~00 ,,400 270/0 23,700 5,600' ' '31010 20,~00 5,100 " 330/0 17,000 2,800 200/0, 14,300 2,200 ' 180/0 ' 12,700 2,000 190/0 5,700 600 120/0 32,000 3,600 , 130/0 1,700 ,-100 -60/0 13,200 '1,900 170/0 10,200 1,500 170/0 ,17,100 1,700 110/0 9,300 700 80/0 176,100 ,22,700 150/0 Source: Oregon Employment Department. Employment Projections by Industry 2004-2014. Projections summarized by ECONorthwest. Note: Percent Change was calculated based on the change in employees divided by the number of employees in 2006, For example, Retail trade's expected percent change is 15% because 2,400 employees is 12% of the 19,700 employees in retail trade in 2006 (2400 divided by 19700 = 15%). Page 106 ECONorthwest September 2009 Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis r--- II .. . I" , I'il Ii' 'Ii! II I ~ I, :;;:11 ,j f,actors Affecting ~u~ur~ 'Appe!1<JiX'B, Economic Growth in Springfi~ld ; ~, ~ > ,- ~ , ' '. ' , , -, t ,J ~ '.., , ' 0 ,- ,." , ,'. >' I, j ,,'_ :. " _ ;. 1" ,., '. ' , tms appendix i:ir~sen~s a, ~,~t~ile~ ~alysis coris~sten! wi~ the , , requirements of OAR 669~009-0015(4) of $pringfield's comparative advantage relative" to the 'Eugene/Sp!~gfield area, Lane County,' Willamette'Valley~ and Oregon. The ir)formation presented it} this , appendix i~ summarized in Chapter '3. ' ' . '. ' , ,WHATIS::COMPARATIVE'ADVANTAGE' ',' Ea&econorl;lic;'regtorihas <i.iffe!eritcoinbn1ai-i~rts ofprocl~ctive fact()rs: " ", ' ", ..land (ai1d riatural,r~sou~ces),l~bor (incl:tidingtecljnologicaI'expertise), 'and::' ,'Glpital(inyestIDentS itlirifrasnUctqre, tec,hnology, an4 ppbgc , services). , " , , , Whiie all areas,l1ave these 'factors to some degree" the mix and cond~tlori of these,:factois rary.':Th~))iix'~dconditionof.pr6ducti~e f~ctors 1,Ilay allow finns in a ~egio:tlto produ~e.:g9od~ and, services more cheaply/orlo' : ': generat~~o~e 'reve~ue, than f4'lris i~ othe~ regiQl1S. " ' ay affe,ctmg the c;ostOfprodtlction, arid marketing, cOlllparative , advantages affect the patt~rn, ~f economic developn;tent in a region, , relative to other regions. G~a19 and OAR 660-009-0015(4) rec~gnizesthi$ ,', , by 'requir~g ,plans to include an analysis of the relative supply arid co~~ of , fact~rs of production. 57 An analysis of comparative advantage depends on the geographic areas being compared. In general, economic conditio~ in Springfield will be largely shaped by national and regional economic, ' conditions affecting the Willamette Valley. Chapter 2 and Appendix A present trends and forecasts of conditions in Oregon and Springfield to , help establish the context for economic development in Springfield. Local economic factors will help determine the amount and type of development in Springfield relative to other communities in Oregon. This appendix focuses on the comparative advantages of Springfield relative to the rest of Oregon. The implications of the factors that contribute to Springfield's comparative advantage are discussed at the end of this chapter. 57 OAR 660-009-0015(4) requires assessment of the II community economic development potential." This assessment must consider economic advantages and disadvantages - or what Goal 9 broadly considers II comparative advantages." Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis September 2009 ECONorthwest Page 107 '1'1 ii'; ': Iii ",I Ii! I , I , LOCATION , Springfield is a'city with a popula~o:t;l of approxImately 57,320 people in 2097,10~atedin the ~outhem W~a~ett~Valley:' Int~rstate 5 ~un~ to the west of Spri?gfieJ~,apd Highway ~26 ~urls east-we~t,through ~pringfield. Springfi~ld is located between the Willamette River (to the south) and McKenzie ~verJto the north}. Springfield's location wi>> continue to impact Springfield~s fu~re economic development. . Springfield shares a border with Eugene, the 2nd largest city in the Sta,.te of Oregon, with a population of approximately 153,690 people in 2007. The Erigene-BpringfieldMetropolitan Sta~stical Area (MSA), which includes all of Lane County, had more ,than 343,000 people in 2007, acco1inting for 9% of Oregon'spoptilation. ' '.' Springfield has eaSy access to the, State's highway system and ,other' , ~~portationopp6rtunities. Interstate 5 runs to the west of' I ' ~pringfield'and Highway 126 is the main east~we,st"route through , Springfield. Residents and businesses'in Spririgfleld can acce,ss otl1er modes of transportation in Eugene, incllldmg the Eugene Airport, Greyhound bus service,' arid passenger railservice~ , , , , , " , ,. Residen~ of Springfield have easy, access to 'shopping, cultural activities,iridoor and outdoor n~creational a<,:tivities, ando,ther amenities in Springfield, Eugene, and rural Lane County. , ' . Springfield residents have several opportunities for post ~secondary education: the University of Oregon, Lane Community College, , Northwest Christian College, and Gutenberg College. Springfield's location, access to 1-5 and Highway 126, and proximity to Eugene are primary comparative advantages for economic development in Springfield. BUYING POWER OF MARKETS The buying power of Springfield and the Eugene-Springfield area forms part of Springfield's comparative advantage by providing a market for goods and services. Table B-1 shows the combined total expenditures for households in Springfield and the Eugene-Springfield Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) in 2008. Households in Springfield are expected to spend about $937 million in 2008, about 14% of total household expenditures in the Eugene-Springfield MSA. Page 108 ECONorthwest September 2009 Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis !!!, !ii::!I':~' :: :;1::: . . Table B-1.' Aggregate annual househoid exp,endi~ures for common purchases, Springfield and ~he l;ugene:"Sprir,lgfield Metropolitan , Statistic;al Area (MSA), 2008 ,': ' . . , ~ " . , " ' , Appar~l, . Entertainment' Food at Horne Health Care ',,' Household 'Equipment ,Shelter-Related ,Expens~s , Transportation ' Miscellaneous Items .T otal " S $ $ $, $' ,$ , ,$ . " $ ,185,522,716 $ '$ 259,702,794 ',$ $' 937,653,699 $ ., ,. .~ .,Eugerlel rin field MSA 548,162,42,3 777,73'1,151 ' 875,120,493 , 534,882,~28 , " ,367,679,233 : 369A~6,828 1 ,$04,2~3,991 :1 ;890,881 ,821 .' 6,667,848,268 ,S>prin~fi~ld % ' ; j ";, ?t.M~~" S endin 14% 14% 16% 14% 13% ' 14% ,14% 14% ,14% ~ ;, ,'Source: Cla~itas, 2008 , ','.. ", "'~ , ':'" , '" ~ote:, Table. B-1 does rio~ include spending on sh~l~er' or housing, . , ' Table 'B~2 s~o~~ ave~age h~usehq~d e~ii~nd~ttire~ for<:0ll11l19~'p~r~4~ses, ' in Springfield and ~e Eugene-SprP1gfield MSA in 2008. Spt#lgfielq households spend ~ average of $42,700 on commo~y purchased i~ems, , , "J:lot inclilding hou,s~g,w4ich typ~~allY,accounts for 20%,()~more6( , househ6ldexp'endittlres. Spiingfi~ld' s households spent less than ~e , ,regional and ~atiol} averag~s, with about 91 % of the $47,OOOav~rage , ,'e?,peridi~es for all house~olds in the Eugene-Springfi~ld ~SA:~d 84% of na~on~l ~~erage 'l1ouse~old expenditur~s. ' , Springfield h()usel1olds spent the inosto~ miscellaneous items ($11,800), such as personal care items, education, child care, pet care, and eating out~ Transportation accounted for 20% of Springfield household expenditures, food at home accounted for 14%, and entertainment accounted for 11 % of expenditures. Compared to household spending for the entire MSA or the nation, Springfield households spent a more on food at home and less on household equipment (e.g., home furnishings and major appliances) and shelter-related expenses (e.g., household repairs, fuel, and telephone service ) .. "i I Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis September 2009 ECONorthwest Page 109 Table B-2. Average annual household expendit~res for common purchases, Sprir:--gfield and the Eugene-Springf~eld Metropolitan Statistical Are~ (MSA), 2008 Sp,i"ingfield's Expenditures, Compared ,to: ,It - Ii Ii,:' I: .1 ,Eugenei ' Spring~~I~ MSA 3,869 5,490 , 6,177 3.175 2,595 2,606 ~ 9,206 ,,13,347 ' , ,,47,065 0,'0 o.f Total 8% $ 11% $ 14% $ 8% $ 5% $ 5% $ ,20% $ '28% $, ,,100% $ E/S'MSA 93% 89% 100% 88% 89% 87% ,92% 89% " 91% Expe'nditures Apparel ,: Entertainment Fo.od at Home Health Care Household Equipment Shelter-Related Expenses' Transportation Miscellaneous Items ' :Total " , Source: Claritas, 2008 '" ' " " " " '".',:" , ,',', ' , Note: Table B-2 does not include spending on shelter <?r housing, which typically acCounts for 20% or m()reof household expenditures.' "',, , ' ','," , ' , ' ,,' Note: The Percent of Total does not add to 100~ as a, result of riJunding errors. ' . . u.S 77% 84% 98% . '77% 76% 75% 90% ,80%,,' 84% , , '. . , . 'A V AllABILITY'OF TAANSPORTA liON FACiliTIES Businesses an,d n~siderits in Springfield haY~' access to a variety of modes of tranSportati<?n:,~utomotive(Interstate 5, multiple Sta~~ highways, and local roads); rail (Union Pacific and Amtrak); transit (LTD);andair (Eugene Arrpolt). ' Springfield has excellent automotive access for commuting and freight movement. Springfield is located along Interstate 5~'the primary north- south transportation corridor on the West Coast, linking Springfield to domestic markets in the United States and international markets via West Coast ports. Springfi~ld has developed along Highway 126, connecting Springfield to rural areas to the East of Springfield. Highway 126 is the primary east-west highway in Lane County, r~g from Florence to Redmond. Businesses and residents of Springfield also have access to Highway 99 in Eugene and Highway 58 in Pleasant Hill. Other transportation options in Springfield are: . Rail. Multiple Union Pacific rail lines serve Springfield, providing freight service. There are two primary junctions in Springfield: (1) the Springfield Junction is located in the Glenwood area in Southwest Springfield and (2) the Mohawk Junction is near the city's southern boundary, near 25th St. . Transit. The Lane Transit District (LTD) provides transit service to the Eugene-Springfield region. LTD serves Springfield with multiple bus lines, providing bus service within Springfield and Page 11 0 September 2009 Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis ECONorthwest i ~ I' 'I j i I;il' 111,,'1'11 'i['I" '11:'11 :;'1" ,! \i:f " . connecting Springfield with Eugene. LTD recently began operating a bus rapid transit (BRT) syste~,' called EmX,wliich provides service betweeh Sppngfi~ld Sta#on and Eugene station.' , , ,. , " ,y .11 , .. . - _ .'. ; CO,nstructiqn'is:uItdehyay f~,r the>newPion~er:Park~ay J3~T:route, , , 'Vhich "':'"ilJ S~nrlect to th~ Sacred Heart'Med!qil (:e'ri~e!} ~4 :the', " , ,,' , , G~teway,~~li.,' """ , :,: " , " ,'; " : :' ,:>',.' :,' , , ,i::,,: ',~ " , -I ; 'I , :1 J '. J , . ,J ~. ,.' ' . Air. T~e, Eugene Airport provides ~oth pa~sengerand 'freight, " service for Eugene'at:ld Sprmgfield residerts. Th~ ai~port is ,the secoIld busiest in the state, and the fifth largest in the: Pac~c Northwest. The'(iirport is serVed by fiv~ commertial airlines,'and'is the primary ~irpoit for ~,six county !egion.' ,,', ' , , , "".,' . '.' . .,'l. ,,'i ..','.' " ..' " "'..' , ,TrarlSportatlon is, a 'compariltive (ldvaritage that:prllrlarily' ~ects ~e ,pve~all type of ~mpl, oymellt apd ~tsgrowth .f9r ,th~ ,r~gi9~: . .. '. " , , " . , , " . ': ,'P~B~IC":F'A'C'ILltl'E$'AN:D:'S,ERVICES, , Pro~.~sio'n ()f pu~~~"~acili~es"and seriric'~s' can im:pa~fa '#r~'s"decis~~n ?Il ',: 10,cation within a region bU,t ECO~ s pa~t researc,h l1aB~hown that ,'e ,.',' ::'", 'l?usip.essesmake locational decisions primarily based pn factors that are' , , sin;1ilar)~ltha region. These factors are:, theavailability~dcost of labor, , tranSportation, raW-materials, and capital. Th~ 'ayailability and cost of " these production factors are usually sllnilar within a 'region. , " " 'Once a business has chosen to locate within a region, they consider the, 'factors that local governments can most directly affect tax rates, the cost and quality of public services, and regulatory policies. Economists , generally agree that these factors do affect economic development, but the effects on economic development are modest. Thus, most of the strategies available to local governments have only a modest affect on the level and type of economic development in the community. PUBLIC POLICY Public policy can impact the amount and type of economic growth in a community. The City can impact economic growth through its policies about the provision of land, redevelopment, and infill development. Success at attracting or retaining firms may depend on availability of attractive sites for development, especially large sites. For example, Springfield was attractive as a location of PeaceHealth's new hospital because the City had a large, relatively flat site located relatively near to Interstate 5 and ~eltline Highway. Springfield's decisionmakers articulated their support for provision of employment land through the economic development strategy and in Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis September 2009 ECONorthwest Page 111 :!' ili 'I]' II':: ' I!' other policy choices. Objectives in the economic development strategy supporting the prpvision of employment land includ~ qbjectives to: (1) provide ~mp~oyment land in a variety of locatio~, cq~figurations, and sIte size~ "for m~ustrial and othe~ empl<?Ylnent uses; (2) provide an , a~equ':lte q)mpetitive short-term supply qf ~Uitable l~d to respond to , ':economic develop'ment opportunities as they aris~, (3) ;r,ese~Et sites '9ver' 20-acre~ for special developments and industries that require large sites, and (4) provide adequate infrastructure to sites. ' The ec'onomic development strategy also includes objectives that supp~rt , ,red~velopmentof existinghllld within ,the UG,B, E7specially'in Downtown and in Glenwood, and 'other infill development' oppqrtunities. In addition, , the City h,as established fin.ancial mechanisms' to s~pport r~developmerit , ~ough,' the ~reation of 'the Glenwood U~banReIlewal District and .Downtown Ur1;>an Renewal District. " T AX POLICY , :ru~ tax policy, of a jur,isdiction is a co~~~eration ~eCOl1()Ji1ic ' development policy~ Table ~-3 shows that Springfield's property tax rate, is be~e~n $16.32 and $18.65 per $1,000 of-assessed value,compared with a state average of $15~'20. The property tax rate ~ Eugene is more variable than Springfield's, ranging from $10.31 to $24.68 per $1,000 of assessed value. 58 Table B-3. Property tax rate per $1,000 assessed value for Springfield, Eugene, ,and Oregon, 2007. Tax Rate (per $1,000 assessed value) $15.20 $15.47 $16.32 - $18.65 $10.31 - $24.68 Area Oregon Lane County Springfield Eugene Source: Oregon Department of Revenue WATER Springfield's water provider is the Springfield Utility Board (SUB). Springfield's primary source of water is wells, supplemented by surface water from the Middle Fork of the Willametle River. Springfield has 33 58 Property tax rates for Springfield and Eugene are a composite of the rates for all properties with an address in Eugene or Springfield. It is almost certain that some of these properties is located outside of both the Eugene and Springfield urban growth boundaries and are subject to unincorporated Lane County tax rates. Page 112 ECONorthwest September 2009 Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis ; I . I wells in 7 we~ fields"which,provide the majority of Springfield's water. SUB has purch~se.d'rights"to water from the McKenzie ~iver, to supply future ne'ed for 'water.' ' ,; :' . . ,.,' : J , ' , Spr~gfield' s w~tef:.tr~~~en~ plant ~~1~cat~4o,ri the Miq~e fo~k;pf, th~. ' ',' , Wma1?~tt~ River, whic~ p!ovides w~t~i treatinent for the Fity. ,'~rh,~\V~t~~ : , , ";treatment plant is at ~r near capacity,'w~th pea~'sumnH~r resid~nti~l ~~ com,mercial irr'igation demands exc~edihg ~e' plant's, capacity at ti.ffi~s. SUB is 'addressing peak demands by educating custom~rs peak shiftirlg, the practice of irrigating lands~aping in the eve~g or at night SUB is plarimr,tg'upgrades t~ ~e' water b;eatfnent plant ~ 20.08 and '2009 t~ ' " addres,~ is~uesmeeting 4e,~and at p~a~ ,tinle~~ SUB is,also,planning , , ", upgrades double~hepl~t's capacit}r,in 20~O. ~prlngfield, rIms to bUild,' two additi~riaJ watertiea~eftt plaIlts 011- the)v1~i<e~ie, Rive~, ~s d~maJ}d, ' , , , for 'w~ter'iricr~as~s. SUB expectS tOIleeg ~ene~treatln~nt pl~tS'by20,13 ' " to 2018.' ' I," . ,'SYB ha~ s~fici~nt wat~r to mee.t expected ir~wth'an9.be able"t~ 'm~et'; , " residential and employment' needs. 'SUB isnof~qnceme'~ ab()ut its. ability " to s~pply 'Y~ter t() any type of in~ustrY"including water':hltensive ' , ,industnes like food processing. SUB has 16wer~ater rates ~an~e, , natio~al averag~. The combination o{~v~il~ble,e:lnd lo~er cost water 'may ,be an 'advantage to a~acting some types of ,businesses to Spri?g~eld. . 'WASTEWATER , Springfield's wastewater services are provided by Metropolitan . Wastewater Management Commission (MWMC), which operates a wastewater facility that ~erves Springfield, Eugene, and Lane County. Springfield's wastewater system, which includes the sanitary sewer and other equipment, is managed by Springfield Public Works. Springfield is about to meet current wastewater demands, except in instances of heavy rainfall. On dry days, Springfield generates about 6 million gallons of wastewater per day. During heavy rainfall, Springfield can generate 100 million gallons of wastewater per day, as a result of infiltration and inflow into wastewater pipes. Springfield recently completed an update of the Wastewater Master Plan, which identified $65 million of upgrades to the system, which will provide service to unserviced areas in Springfield and address problems with infiltration and inflow into wastewater pipes. Springfield expects to be able to meet expected growth. The City expects to provide service to 6,100 new equivalent dwelling units, which includes Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis September 2009 ECONorthwest Page 113 ' II:, ;I!I;I; I:;. 1_ 1'1:1 ," 1'1 I . residences and businesses, over the next 20 years. If Springfield needs to expand}ts urban gr~wth boundary) the City will need to,plan ~ow to provide service to the" n~w areas. LABOR MARKET FACTORS The availability of labor is critical for economic' deve~opment. Availability , of lapor depends not only on the number of workers available, but the '"quality, skills, and experience .of available workers as well. This section examin~s the ~vailability of workers for Springfield~ Th~ labor force in any market consists of the adult population (16 and , over) who ate workmg or actively seekiJ;1g work. The ,lab,or force includes " ,both the employed and unemployed. ChildreI1, .fetit~es, s~dents, and ' , people ,wh9 are n9t actively seeking work are notco:nsidered part of the ' labor force. According to the 2000 'C~nsus, Lane CoUnty has more' than 166,000 peopl~ in its labor force, wi~ 16% of the County's labor force, "locate<;l in Springfield ,(27,000 participants in' the labor .forc~)~ ' , " The ~e~ployment rate is one indicator 'of the,r~l~tiv~ numberof workers w:i1o are actively seeking employment. Labor force ~a~a"~oni the Oregon' Employment Department sh()ws that unemploYllle:nt in Lane CountY 6.1 % in February 2008, lower 'than the State avera.g~ of 6.3%. Figure B.:.l shows the unemployment'rate for Lane County, Oregon, and the United States' for the past decade. During this period, Lane County's unemployment has been very similar to the statewide unemployment rate. The COtlnty arid State unemployment rates have been consistently higher than the national average, but the difference has decreased in recent years. Page 114 ECONorthwest September 2009 Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis ~ li\~~-':~~ -!:! '~:i ~ i:r "illj~' I :i'i/;;:. :11':: .. I Figure B-1. Unemployment rates for Lan~ County, Oregon; and the ,U.~., January, 19~~ to February 2008 '. " , " , ' , ,,' ~ u.s.' ':"-'Ore~ibn: "---:"Lane C,QuntY Source: BureClu of LaborStatistics ,,' , ' , " Note: unemployment data is not seasonally C1djU~ted , '. , , Another important factor in the labor force is ~e dis~ce that ~6rkers are, willing to commute. Figure 'B~2 shows a comparison of the cqmmute ~e, ' ,to wor:i<, for residents 16 years and older for Oregon, Lane County, Eugene, and Springfield in 2008. Springfield residents were more likely to have a commute of between 15 and 29 minutes than residents of the State, County, ,or Eugene. About 46% of Springfield residents commute 15 to 29 minutes, compared with the 36% of State residents, 39% of County residents, and 38% of Eugene's residents. Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis September 2009 ECONorthwest Page 115 --~ -~::.I ii' I II Figure B-2. Commuting time to work in minutes for residents 16 years ~nd older, Ore~9n, Lane Cou~ty, Eugene, and Spring~ield, 2~08 I ' 60 or more U) S 45-59 :J 'I: g .=.:: ..., 0' ' 30-44 3: .s Q) E j:: 15-29 , Cii ' > C'll ... I- Less than 15 ' Worked at home 0% 10% ,,20% ,',30%' , 40% 50% Percent of POl?ulatio,n Age 16+', II!I Oregon 8 Lane County 0 SpringfieldoEugene Source: Claritas 2008 ' ,'. . , ' , Figu~e B-3 and Table B-:4 show where residents of Sp~~gfield work in .2004. Figure B-3 and Table B-4 show ,that 81 %of Spring#~ld' s residents , " j . , were employed in Lane County, with 40% of Springfie~d's residents working in Eugene and 25% working in Springfield. Close to 1,000 Sprmgfield workers (4%) commute to MultnomahCounty, the majority of who work in Portland. Page 116 ECONorthwest September 2009 Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis ., I II ' ~ I IIi) . . :', r:::; ':\~,,--~i;: ' , , (-V1' ,'; ,t"..., ,t , ,. \,',.; /< ,>">~1" ~ 1 : " ~r~ ;" -",y~ ~O ','" ;, 1 Morker 4) 2 to 5 Morkers ' o 6 'to 12 Morkers i> 13 to 27 Morkers , '.28 to 53 'Workers, ,:,,0 6 work~r~ per ,~q. ..1.', , , '<>1to 26 ':Jorkers per: sq. "1., '0 2~ to 57 workers' per,' sq~' "i. 058to, 138 yorkers' per ~q., rii. 0'~31 to 268"w~rk~r~per sq.' Iti~ I ~~t ,.- i~......\... ~ o Ov~.aY, K>ey ,n, ~iapKe,;" ' ,I I " I,' o ' i " " :z " , ,3 '4, rni /~ :' .'" "ri ,3f.."{.' ", ,",',', ,', Source: U.S. Census Bureau: LED on the Map ''? ", , ,Location , La~e County Eugene Springfield , Coburg , Junction 'City Multnomah Co. Portland , All Other Locations Total " Number' 18,649 ' , 9,261 5,6,75 ",' ',' L 638 475 975 839 3,385 23,009 , I Source: U.S. Census Bureau: LED on the Map Figure B-4 and Table B-S show where employees of firms located in Springfield lived in 2004. Seventy-nine percent of Springfield's workers lived in Lane County. Twenty-nine percent lived in Springfield, and 23 % lived in Eugene. About 27% of Springfield's workers lived in unincorporated areas of Lane County and 21 % lived outside of Lane County. Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis September 2009 ECONorthwest Page 117 . . Figure ,8-4. Places where workers in Springfield lived, 2004 . 1 Morker o 2 to' 5 Markers (J 6 to 12 Markers , Q 13 to 27 Morkers . 28 to 53 Morkers ! I I,' o 6 wo~kers per sq. "i., o 7, to 26 ,:,~rkers per sq. ,,1. ? 27 to 57, wo~ke:-: IJer sq. ,,1. ' o ,58 ,to 138 wo':-ker~ per.' sq~ "i. 0, 131 to 268 workers per sq. "i. _.bm~d~i.~~~ o o.INf".y K.sy 0 Mzp~.sy ,- ,; 3 ,..1 ~'O, . , ' 'J',3j: ;, "i." ", , . i../~, Source: U.S. Cen~us Bureau: ~ED on the Map /.......'. -0)"","""-.: I ,Tat:)le 8-5. Places wher~ workers in Springfi~ld Ihied, ~004 Location',,';' La~e County Springfield Eugene All Other Locations Linn County Marion County Jackson County Other locations Toted Number : 15,341 5,615, , 456~ 4,112 537 428 409 2,738 19,453 Percent " , 790/0 290/0 230/0 ' 210/0 3010 20/0 ,20/0 140/0 , 1000/0 Source: U.S. Census Bureau: LED on the Map Educational attainment is an important labor force factor because firms need to be able to find educated workers. Figure B-5 shows the share of population by education level completed in Springfield and Lane County in 2007. In 2007, Springfield had a smaller share of residents with an associate's degree or higher (26%) than residents of Lane County (37%). In comparison, 47% of Eugene's residents have an associate's degree or higher. Page 118 ECONorthwest September 2009 Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis ~- 1:(' I . " Figure 8-5. Educational attainment for the population 25 ,years a,nd ,ov~r, Oregon, Lane County, an~ Springfie~d, 2~~7 ' " Graduate or ' , professiona(q'~gree m 'c: .2 ' , -,' , ,", ~' Highschoql gr?du,ate, , '-6 (includes equiv,~lercy) , w' , , Some college, " no degree Bach~lor~s' d,egr~e ' ... c: CD E c: .; - - '<( Asso~iate deg ree' 'I , , , ,9th 'to'12th grade,', .','no diplor;na ' ; : L,.essJhan 9th,.grade ' r' " ,,[. " 0% 5% . 10%, '15%, 20% 25%30% 35%' Perce~tofPopul~tion Age, 25+ ", . Lane County , [] Springfield ,. I.' , Source: OregonProspectoLcom' , , . . . , , Opportuni~e's fo~ wor~orce'h-aining and post-secondary education for residents of the,Eugene-Springfi~ld a!ea include: the University of ' Oregon, Lane Community College, Northwest Christian College, and Gutenberg College. Table B-6 shows changes in ethnicity Oregon, Lane County, and Springfield between 1990,2000, and 2008. This table shows that the Springfield has a larger share of Hispanic or Latino residents than Lane County 2000, with 6.6% of residents in Springfield were Hispanic compared to the County average of 4.6%. Between 1990 and 2000, Springfield's Hispanic and Latino population grew by 168% (2,176 people), compared with growth in the Hispanic and Latino population of 117% in Lane County and 144% in Oregon. In 2008, Hispanic residents accounted for about 11 % of Oregon's population and 6% of Lane County's population. Springfield's Hispanic population grew by 95% between 2000 and 2008, more than twice the rate of growth for the County or State during the same period. Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis September 2009 ECONorthwest Page 119 i'I' 'Ii' Table 8-6. Changes in ethnicity, Oregon, Lane County, and Springfield, 1990, 2000, and 2008 'I . ,I Page 120 :~ j . ~ '\ ,: Oregorf Lane CountY Springfiel'd, 1990 Total Populatio':l ' Hispanic at Latino , ,Percent Hispanic or Latino' 2000 Total Population, Hispanic or Latino Percent Hispa~ic or Latino 2008 , T<?tal Populati?n , Hispa':lic or Latino Percent Hispanic or Latino 'Change'1 ~00-2000 ' Hispanic or L~tino . ' , Percent Hispar.'ic or Latin<;> Ch~nge 20~O:2008 , ", Hispa,nic or Latino, ,,' ' ' ': Percent Hispanic or Latino . , ~,842,32~ " 282,912 ' 44,683 112,707 6,852 1,299 4.00/0 ' 2.40/0 2.90/0 3,421,399 322,959 52,729 275,314 14,874" ' 3,475 ' 8.0010 ' 4.60/0 ,,6.60/0 , , 3,772,854 , 343,961 ,56,016 400;435 20,941 5,293 " 10.60/0 ' ,6.10/0, 9.40/0' ", " ,', 162,607 ' 8,022 " ,,2,176 ,1440/0 1 ~ 70/0 1,~8O/0 125,121' 6,067 ~,818 ' , 450/0 .'410/0 520/0 Source: U.S. Censu~ 1990 and 2000, Claritas 2008 Commuting is common in Springfield. About40%of the people who live iri Springfield commute to Eugene for work. Less than one-third of Springfield's workers live in Springfield. The implication of this workforce , analysis is that, while oilly one-third of Springfield's workforce lives within the City, Springfield are able to attract educated workers from most of Eugene and surrounding areas in Lane county. It does not appear that workforce will be a constraint on employment growth in Springfield. Springfield should be able to continue to draw on residents of Eugene for workers, even if energy prices continue to rise but Springfield's ability to attract workers from outside of the Eugene- Springfield area may be negatively impacted by continued increases in energy prices. ECONorthwest September 2009 Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis r--"---C, . .~ I "I " E,mployment Forecastculd Site Needs for Industrial' 'andoth~r E:mplr,ymentUses,>':" ' ;, ".' , , , , " : Appendix C ., > '. . > . , . , ':', ., .' " ; , This appendix' pr~sents a d~'tailed analysis of Springfield's site' ne~ds ' : c~nS~stent 'with the,require~en,ts of ,OAR 6?0~o.09~0015(2) and o~ OAR 660-' ,'009~002~(1). Thi~ ~ppendix includes an employment fo~ecast and an , " ., arialysi~ of sit~ ne~~s to acc~~odat~ind~stiial 'and othe~ employment , uses in ?pririgfiel~for the 2C)10.to 2030 period.Tl1e ipfo,r~ationpresent,ed in this app~~d~x is s~mar~ed ,in C~ap~er 4:~ , . . I:NlPLOYNlENTFORi:CAst" ' , 'T()'provi~eJ6r an.,u;I~q~'l.tes~pply'of ~oIpme~c;ialan~~d~stTi~1 sHes', " co~istent, w~th plCffi P9~t~e~" Springfiel~needs an es~ate of tlleap:l()unt , ' , 'of cormri~rcial cin~ industrial land that willbe needed , over the planping " period. ': GoaJ 9 re"quires cities identify '~the' number of sites by, type ',' ' :, re~sonflbly eX:pe~ted to be needed to'accommodate the e,-,pecte~" ",' :' .e~ployment growth bas,e(l, on the :si,te,characteristics typical of ~xp~cted uses."'The numlJer ofl1eeded si~es is dependent on 'the sit~ requirements of employers. The~stimate of land need is presented in the site ~eeds analysis in the next sectiqn~ ' , Demand for commercial and industrial land will be driven by 'the, expansion and relocation of eXisting businesses and new busines'ses locating in Springfield. The level of this business expansion activ~ty can be measured by employment growth in Springfield. This section presents a projection of future employment levels in Springfield for the purpose of estimating demand for commercial and industrial land. The projection of employment has three major steps: 1. Establish base employment for the projection. We start with the estimate of covered employment in Springfield's UGB presented in Chapter 3. Covered employment does not include all workers, so we adjust covered employment to reflect total employment in Springfield. 2. Project total employment. The projection of total employment will be calculated using the safe harbor method suggested in OAR 660-024. Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis September 2009 ECONorthwest Page 121 1,1,11111 fl!i' iil" ii"',' >( . 3. Allocate employment. This step involves alloca~g employment to different bu~4~g types, based:on similar requireII,lents for built space.',' , , . ; . - . EMPLOY~ENT. BA,~E FO~ P, ROJECTION , , " ,',,,' . Covered eIllployment, however, does not include all workers in an ' eco!lomy.'Most !1otably, covered employment does no~ ~clude sole, proprietors. Analysis of ,data shows that covefed employmentreported,by the Oregon ~mploymen~ Department for Lane County is only Cihout 74% of totalemploymelltreported by the u.s. Depart:rrie~t'of Commerce. We,' made ,this comparison by ~ector for Lane Courtty and used the resultirig' ratios to convert covered employment to total employment in. Spring~eld. TableC-l shows Springfield had an estimated 36,706 employees within its , UGH in 2006. This 'figure results in a population-to-e'mployment ~atio of' 1~7 persons per employee. The statewide average is abqut, 1.9 persons per " employee. ' Page 122 ECONorthwest September 2009 Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis :11: . * WI! Table C-1. Estimated total etnployment i~ th~ Springfield UGB by sect~r, ,2006 , " " " "Sector Agri9~I~ure,"F<?restry, 'F,is~in~, .& Mining Construct!on, ' '.,' '" Man~facturirig Wholesale'Trade 'Retail' , ','" " , '"" Tran'sportcltion & Warehc:>using ~ Utilities, 'Ir,form,atiorl " Finance & Insurance , Real Estate & Rental & Leasing " , "Professional" Scie,ntific, ~~e,chnic~1 ?ervic~s ' , N!~riage~~nt,o~ Compapies. ;&' ,~,~terpris~s ~dmin. &Support &V~~steMgt ~ef"ice~ PrivateEduca~i~mil: Serv,ices, ,: .~" ' " Health C'a're & SoCial ~ssista~ce' Arts,Entertainm~nt,& Re~re~tion " Accom rTlOdation & FoOd Services'" , Oth~r Services Government " Total,' ", Covered Emplo ment ,: ': '%;of To'~al Number" .I;m'p~ ' , 282 ;, ,73% ' 1,922 , 95% 2,714 99% 1,230 85% ~,632 ' 79% 941 70% 1,356 79% . , 1,110 66% ,441 "33% ' ' '576 ,52% ':", " 3~3 97,~ ,'< 2,46076~ 109 ,'38<y'~ , ' , 3,0~9 ' ,77% ", 321,' ,'41% 2,453, '\",91 % ',81$ , 48% '3,535 82% '27,310 74% : Estimated , "', .Totill 10 ment '.. ,~~7," ~,973.., 2,750 1,446 ,4,609 ,1,349 1,710 1,673 1,341 1.,:-107 ' '. , ' , 354," .. ",,3,2~~, '" ,,'290 4,0.9~ ':, 77.7, "'" 2,~86" 1,685 ' 4,322 ' 36,706 Source: 2005 cdve~ed employmentfromconfidEmtial Quarterly Census of Employm~ntand Wage (QCEw> data, provided by the Oregon Employment Department. Govered,employmentas a percent ~ftotal ernploymen~ , calculated by ECONorthwest using data for Lane County employment from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (total) and the Oregon Employment Department (covered). ' The employment forecast covers the 2010 to 2030 period, requiring all " ' estimate of total employment for Springfield in 2008. 'Since 2006, Springfield has had one major change in employment, beyond expected employment growth: PeaceHealth has built a new regional medical center at RiverBend. PeaceHealth estimates that there will be approximately 3,400 new employees in Springfield in 2008 as a resUlt of the hospital at River Bend. ECO estimates that Springfield has 37,733 employees in 2008, plus the 3,400 employees at RiverBend. The result is an employment base of 41,133 total employees in Springfield in 2008. EMPLOYMENT PROJECTION OAR 660-024-0040 (8) (a) (A) allows the City to determine employment land needs based on "The county or regional job growth rate provided in the most recent forecast published by the Oregon Employment Department." Springfield is part of Region 5, which includes all of Lane County. Based on this safe harbor, employment in Springfield can be assumed to grow at 1.4 % annually. Table C-2 shows the result of applying Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis September 2009 Page 123 ECONorthwest l!!i;"~i!Jill:~~'l t~ this growth rate to the total employment bas~ of 41,133 in Springfield. Table C-2 shows that etrtployment is forecast to grow by 13,440 employees (a 32%in~rease) benyeen 2Q~0 and 2030. , Table C-2.Employm,erit groWth in . : Springfiel,d's ,UGB, ',2010-2040 Total Year EmploYment 2008 4,1,133 ' 2010 ~2,284 2030 55,724 2030 " , 55,724 2031 56,4~8 2032 57 ~283 ,2033" 58,079 2034 ' ' 58,886 , 2035 ' 59,704 . , 2036 , 60,534 , 2037 , ' 61,375 2038 . 62,228 , 2039 , 63,093 ,2040 63,970 Change ~010 to 2030 ' , Employees , 13,440 Percent ' 320/0 MGR'1.40/0 Source: ECONorthwest Springfield is part of the regional economic center in the Eugene- Springfield region. The ratio of population to employment will dec'rease from 1.6 to 1.5 people per job between 2010 and 2030. This change shows that employment will grow faster than population in Springfield, suggesting that some Springfield will continue to have employees who commute from Eugene or other cities in the region. ALLOCATE EMPLOYMENT TO DIFFERENT BUILDING TYPES The next step in the employment forecast is to allocate future employment to building type, as described in Table A-8 in Appendix A. The allocation was done by grouping employment into building types with similar building and site requirements. For example, the following service sectors were grouped together into the /I office" building type because they need similar types of built space with similar site requirements: information, finance, real estate, professional services, management of companies, administrative support, utilities, arts and entertainment, and other services. 1'11: .. . Page 124 ECONorthwest September 2009 Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis .. ~ ~'i" li:l! Ilil!i';I! u' "!I:,II ii, " :r!:: "';lj)! 1:ll:~ ',I' I, Table C-3 shows the foreca~t of employment growth by building type in Springfield's UGB'iri ~~~O." Table C-3 shows the ~mo.unt of employ:rp.ent by b~ilding type in,2010:}n 20JO,"a,~otal9f about ~O% of Springfield'~' ,e'mployrhent~s~officearid:othetseivice~' b~~ing types~ Abo~t18~ is' , in retail, 15,% is'in general mdustrial aild '1% 'is ~ wf;lre~ous~g ~d: , ' , 'distribution.' "','" , ",,' , , l " " , " ," , , "Tabie' C-3., Fo~ecast of e~ployment growt~ in, by b~ildin~l..tYpe, , ,Springfield ,UGB, 2010-2030 2030 Change 2010 to ' 2030 {' . > Building Type Industrial " " , , , , :, ,Warehousing ~ Distribution , Gen~ral Industrial ',,' 'Commercial , Office ,Retail", " ,'Other Services' ,', ",Total, Employment %of Employment Total ,2,954, . ].00/0' 6,457, 15.30(0 . , " 3,343 'I "'~6:--0% '38,9,: i,S?3 '~,:,~~'.50~ ' '1,066 , , " ,,', r' '; , , , '17,2741 ,31:Qo/o" 4,113 , ',' 9,7S2 'j 17.S'ok ' '2;043 ,,' , : '17,832 'f3i:oo/o ",5,229 , 55,724, 100.0% ',,13,440 , "I I I ,12,561, ,'29.70/0 ,7,?~9 ' 1R2~/o :12,603 29.80/0 , "42,284 :100:0% , ,'Source: EcbNorthwesi', , , ' , 'Note:' Green, shading de~otes an as~umptioi1 by ECONorthwest " . ,., ,.> . \ I.' \ . . '. . , .' " , " . '.' ' ',' . . . . . '."'., 'The f~r~'cast in Table ,C-3 assullles that,SpringHeldwill hav~ growth in all , categofiesof e~ploy.tri.ent.'It also as'scimes that the share of employment' ' willin~rease in other services (2.2% inc:rec:lsein' share) and office (1.3%' increase in share). At the same time, the share of employment will decn~ase in general industrial (1.8 % decrease in share), warehous~g and distribution (1.0% decrease in shar~), and retail (0.7% decrease in share). ' In tenns of jobs, employment will increase ,in all of these sectors. ' The assumptions about the changes in share of all employment are based on the following considerations: · Increase in the share of employment in office and other services. Springfield's target industries are predominantly office and other services, such as medical services, services for seniors, call centers, back office functions, high tech, professional services, corporate headquarters, and other services. The forecast assumes that these industries will grow faster than other employment in Springfield. · Decreas'e in employment hi other categories. The decreases in employment in other categories is based on the following factors: o While Springfield expects that general industrial will grow, the City expects industrial employment will grow slower than all employment in the City. This expectation is based Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis September 2009 ECONorthwest Page 125 :/ ' ~ ... on ~e target industries that Springfield has identified and ~e Oregon E~ployment Department's forecast for . employment growth in L~e ~ounty for 2006 to 2016. 0' Springfield expe~ts' that eJ?pl<?y~ent lJ:1 ,~a~epousing and distributiori "Y"ill'gro~ but slow~r thap .~ employment , because Springfield is at adisa~vantage for siting warehous~ arid distribution fi!ms. These fums need sites ' tha~ hav~ easy,access to 1.:.5 and flat sites 'of 20' or more acres. ' There are relatively few sites ip or around Springfield that meet these criteria. ' 0' Employment in retail will grow with pop~latio1i. Springfield, ' exp~cts,that r~tail will grow s~ghtly slo~~r,than all , employnient.'This assumption is base~ ont4e,'expectatlo~ ' 'that Springfield's target industrjes'wiJ! gr~n\r faster than ove,rall'employmentgrowth, ~cl~d~$ r'~tail empl~yment. ' ,It is worth rioting ,that t,he employment projec~oJ:1S in this appendb(do n()t" take' jnto accoUnt a major jump in emploYIll,enttllatcould result froIll the location of one or more large eriiployersin the coD:mi~ty during th~ ' ' planning ,period. This' could take place if the City were success~ In itS' recruitment efforts, 'either o~ its own and/ or iri c<?njunction with the Governors Initiative to bring new industry to the State. PeaceHealth and Symantec are examples of such events. Such a ,major change in the commUnity's employment would essentially be, over and above the growth anticipated by the City's employment forecast and the implied " land needs (for employment, but also for housing, parks and other uses). Major economic events such as the successfu~ recruitment of a very large employer are very difficult to include in a study of this nature. The implications, however, are relatively predictable: more demand for land (of all types) and public services. SITE NEEDS OAR 660-009-0015(2) requires the EOA identify the number of sites, by type, reasonably expected to be needed for the 20-year planning period. Types of needed sites are based on the site characteristics typical of expected uses. The Goal 9 rule provides flexibility in how jurisdictions conduct and organize this analysis. For example, site types can be described by plan designation (i.e., heavy or light industrial), they can be by general size categories that are defined locally (i.e., small, medium, or large sites), or it can be industry or use-based (i.e., manufacturing sites or distribution sites). Page 126 ECONorthwest September 2009 Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis :[: :' ..' ,t: J^ ,:1; , I,: I' - ' ! ~ ~ il ^ 'ii ; ,'i ,l -'I -, J" - ' - - - , , } Firms ~antW:g:~o expanq or locate in Spring~el~ will be looking for a variety 9f sl~~ 'cu;id building char~cteristics, depending on the industry:and,' , . specific ~n:ciiip~ta~c~s. J?r~viou~ ~~s~a,r~h coriducted by E~O has foun~ ,:,: ,: , that w:hlle there are alw~ys sp~ci!ic c!~~eri~ ~at ar,e ind~stty-dependent ' > , , and specific to a firm, many fi!ms ~4a;te at least >~ few' c'9hurio~ 'site' , ;, ':'" ',~r~t~HCl.I~ general, 'all.fb-pis #eed~~itesth~faie r~latiyeiy:~~t; Jr~e:~t:::, , "'~~tural or regulatory 'collStra~ts orj dev'elopirient,w.1t~~go'od','" ',':::,' " ' :tr~portation acces~ and, adequate public~ serVices.', TI;le exact, ain6~nt," " ' , " ,'qualitY,'an~l r~Ja~~e i1l1P'ortan~~of}:4ese factors'y~ry' ~mong diff~rent ' types of firms. This ~~ction dis~usses,the siterequire~ents for firms in; , iri~ustrieswith',gr.<?~~ potential iq the Eugene,-Springfield Region, ~s ' ,', iridiqiteq by,tlleqregon Employme!lt b~partinentforecast,sh?wn in "table',A~i2.,' , ';1 ' ',,' , ',,' , " ", ,1 ,:':F,Acto~s ':TH'AT: A,FFi:'Cr,L()CA '"nONALQE-GISI,oNs:'" , " , , " " ~y 4?'~rms locat~'~here th~Y'4p ?:There':i~'n~ ~~gle 'ah~we! ~:'diff~r,ent', ",fir~$. cho()sethe:4' l()~~tioi;lsJord,.iff.ereIlt re'a:sons~ Key deb~rmina~es 'of a ,,', " , lqcation decision are 'afum's fact()rs of pro due 'lion. For :exa#iple, a 'firm that , '" 'spe~ds'a latge'pO!tiol1 of total c~~tS 9~tfttskill~d lab9r will.b~ dtawIl'to',:': , ,ioca~onSwherelabo:tis rela,tiv~ly ineXpensiy~., A furri,with large:enefgy : " ~errHmds will give 'more weight to locations' where energy is .relatively,' , ~expensive. In general; firmschoo~e lo<:ations they belieye will a~low '. , tljem to~aximiZe net revenues:'.if demand,for gClod.s,al)d ~ervices'i~ held' roug~y constant, then revenlle rrul;(imiiation is approx~ated by cost ' minimization. . " ' ',' . .' . . , , The typical categories ,that economists use to clescribe a firm' sproduction ' function are:' , ' · Labor. Labor is often and increasingly the most important factor of production. Other things equal, firms look at productivity -labor output per dollar. Productivity can decrease if certain types of labor are in short supply, which increases the costs by requiring either more pay to acquire the labor that is available, the recruiting of labor from other areas, or the use of the less productive labor that is available locally. Based on existing commuting patterns, Springfield has access to labor from the Eugene-Springfield Region. · Land. Demand for land depends on the type of firm. Manufacturing firms need more space and tend to prefer suburban locations where land is relatively less expensive and less difficult to develop. Warehousing and distribution firms need to locate close to interstate highways. Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis September 2009 ECONorthwest Page 127 . ,:I/:., 'II ' J, j 1 " , , , ',' "', ' " ... ,If)'' . : ~ocal infrastructure. An imporJant role of goverrim~nt is to : ", iAcrea~e ec?nomi~ capacity by improving quality and efficieng- of , , , irifrastr~ctur~ and fac~ties, such as roads, .bridges, water and, ~ , :, ,'''~s~we~' systerrt~, 'airpoif ,~d.. saIgb fa~ili#es"en;e!gy sy.stems~; cll1d: ... 'telecommitriicatlons. " ',:',:'" ..", , , .. , , , "', ., " ; :'",' , .. ,.Acc~ss tomarkets~ Th()ug~part of, ni!r.~~~uctur~,tr~p6~tatio~ ' , 'merits special atten~on~ Frrms need to move 'thei!: pr()dud:, eith~r , , goods or services, to' the m~rket, artd they rely on access to 'different, modes of transportatior(t()clo this~Springfield's ~ccess to'I~5 and: High\,V~y 1~6 proyide the Citjr wIth advantages in attra~~g , busipessesthat nee~ ea,sy ac'c~ss ,to highways but 'do not need to 's:trlp,large volillnes'offreig~tbytnic~. .. " "\' ., ' " 'Mat~~ials.' ruins ,prpdu~ing"gq04~l:,and evenfu~sprodu~ilig":., >, ' , , se~ice~,,~eecl-\tadousrn,.aterialstOd~velop pr,oductS,thatth~y ca~ selLSo~e firms nee41l~turalres~iLitc~s:' lti~lJe~mantifClchtr~g" requrrestiees., ()r, farther:.do~nthe 4lleifirm~ may need ' , , 'irttermed~ate mateJ:ials:f()r~xalllple,,4iffiens~one4 lumber to build, ' manUfactUre~'~Otl~Wg~, ',' " ," >" . ,. ." . Entrepr~neurship.Thi~ w.put to pr~duction 'mayl?e th()ught, of as ' good management; or. even.'more broadly' as a spiri~ of imlov~tion, optimis'm, and ambition that distingci,ishes one ,firm from another even though rrLostoftheir othe'rfactor irtpu~ may be quite similar. . '" , " : .'; The supply, co~t, and quality of any of ~ese factors ',obviously depend on market factors: on conciitiorisof supply and demcind,locally, nationally, and even globally. But they also depend on public policY.pIn general, ',public policy can affect these factors of production through: . Regulation. Regulations protect the health and safety of a community and help maintain the quality of life. Overly burdensome regulations, however, can be a disincentive for businesses to locate in a community. Simplified bureaucracies and straightforward regulations can reduce the burden on businesses and help them react quickly in a competitive marketplace. . Taxes. Firms tend to seek locations where they can optimize their after-tax profits. Studies show that tax rates are not a primary location factor within a region - they matter only after businesses have made decisions based on labor, transportation, raw materials, and capital costs. The cost of these production factors is usually similar within a region. Therefore, differences in tax levels across Page 128 ECONorthwest September 2009 Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis " {(:.:_:'~ !: '.~ ... If' :; 'Ii: '-. I', 1.111 '~,~omm:unities within a region ~re mor~ important in the locatici~ " ,'qe<;.isio~ ,than are, ~iffe~eno~s' in ~x levels ;between regions"".":; , " ;-'j' ,', _ ~. , ~. 0 " 'J:' ; _,' )";' , I. ~o ] , ~ ", ',') :: ~ \ " .,Fin~nci~fip.c~~Hves.:Goveimllei)ts ~an offer firms iPcenfiv~s't() '.'. :,enc,~urage, 'g~9wfu..'S~4i~s h~ye '~,~q~n' thafInost,typ~s '9ffulancic~J' incentiv~s have had ~ttle' sign#i~an~ effec,t '6ij. firm 19s~ti6h betw~~n regioi;1S~ F 6r mculufac'1ll~~g' industf~~s #ith 'sigIDfi~cUit ,'~quip~ent 'costs, hOWever, property oririveS~~Jlt'tax creditor ab~tement, incentives ,can playa signIficant roi~;mlocatiQn deci~ionS. ,':': :rncenti~es are lr,lore effe,cti~e 'atredirectitlg grQwth,within'a region ,'. th~ they are at p!oyiding a competitive advantage ~etween: " : " r~giorjs~, " ' " " , , " " ' ,', ':,' ",T4ts disclls~idn lIlay~~ggest 'tbata.locaijort d~cisioil is'bas~4~rttirely~n'~ ' : ":' stiaight~f9rwa.rd: accoiffitingofcosts;:with',thebes,t l()c.atl.o~ ~ei.ng the()n~ ': ,,", ' ~ith'~elowestJevel of oyer~ll costS.9tudle~9feconomic' ~ev~lopment, , :',,':h~wever;'have: $hoWIl that Jocation decislon~dep~rid oIl "a ,~ariety of 9the'i ' :. ',,' f"ctors tha(iI1~ir~ctJy:affect costs ofp~oductioil,~ Th,esein4irectf~ctQrs "", ," ',' , 'include agglome':rativeeconoIriie~ (al~6'k1j9,Wn irldu~tiycluster.s)t qualitY, ' ,', of ilie~ aI"LdinnoviHiYecapacity~': " " " " ", , " , , · ,I~dustly~lust~rs. Firlllswithsimilar business'activities' carireallie" 'operation~i sa,vings when'theycongregate'in a single,'lo~ation or " " region. Chlster.41g caTIreduce co~ts~y creatiJlg' econo~ies of s~ale for suppliers~ For tlp.s ~eason, firmstend'to locate iri areas where there is already a pres~nce of other firms engaged in 'similar or related activities.,' " , , " , · Quality: of life. A community that features' many quality amenities, such as access to recreational opportunities, culture, low crime, good schools, affordable housing, and a clean environment can attract people simply because it is a nice place tbbe. A 'region's quality of life can attract skilled workers, and if the amenities lure enough potential workers to the region, the excess labor supply pushes their wages down so that firms in the region can find skilled labor for a relatively low cost. The characteristics of local communities can affect the distribution of economic development within a region, with different communities appealing to different types of workers and business owners. Sometimes location decisions by business owners are based on an emotional or historical attachment to a place or set of amenities, without much regard for the cost of other factors of production. · Innovative capacity. Increasing evidence suggests that a culture promoting innovation, creativity, flexibility, and adaptability is Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis September 2009 ECONorthwest Page 129 " ,,", \ '. essential to keeping U.s. cities economically vital and" " intema~onally ,compe,titive. Innovation is parti~ularly, important in mdusbies that.requife an ~ducated workforce., High-tech, ','". ,;' ".',' comp~e~rlee,9.t9 hav~: a~c~ss' ~o~e~' idea~ typ~(:~~r' as~otlate~: , , " , : wi~:,a uni~~rsity:or r~s~*tcI1:~~hIte~, ~ni19yati()~ ~fec~both the " 6ver~}evel ~d type:ofe~<?horrii<: dev~lopm~nt,in a region~' " :' :,' ,'Govetnmen~,can be'ak~y pa~t <?fa ~om~Unity~~ inpovativ~culture/' , ,thioughthe pr<;>vision of services and regu~ation of development and business activities that ate re~p~risive. t9"t4echanging needs of ' business. ' , , ' , , ,J~bl~ C-4 providesastiirrmary ofprodt1~tion factors ill Springfield as wen., ' ,~sc6mmenffion,locaJopporhu;1ities 'a:qdconstraints.Jt also'discQss~s ," , ", ,'~pUcationS 'Of e~~h f~~torJor fu~re,~c()rio~~c 4e.v~lopmel1thl'" " , ,~prfugfiel~~ . " ,,', ",' , \ '0-- ,." ,,' ", , ,,', ., .' " , ", " , , , " , ,I, Page 130 ECONorthwest September 2009 Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis ~ ,-~' ""~~'. . , >I "', - ," . . - Table C-4. Summary of production factors and their~i,mplicati()ns ~for Springf~e,ld, '" Category labor land loca I i nfrastru ctu re Access to markets Materials Opportunities . Access to labor from the across the Eugene-Springfield Region . Opportunities for redevelopment and infill development, especially in Downtown and Glenwood . Proximity to I-S and Highway 126 and availability of freight shipping by rail . Opportunities for transportation via transit, bicycle, and pedestrian . Capacity of water and wastewater systems . Proximity to I-S and Highway 126 and availability of freight, shipping by rail . Proximity to Eugene Airport for transportation of people and small quantities of goods . Proximity to natural resources (e.g., timber or agricultural products) . Access to multiple rail lines , ,implications' ~The:City hasa'ctess-to 'laborJrom the 'region.' Asther.' ,'City adds mbrehigh"-end" expensive,houses;' fhe:~.':~'<' , .Gityislikel~ to attract a m?re educated workforc~:, ,;~: " ,Commuting patterns may :benegativelyirnpacted :by ," 'increases':,in energy prices; The impact.is likelyto,be ':Iessinthe immediate E)Jgene-Springfield areaJ5ufis" likely to, be' 'g reater for: commuters that live-further fromEugeneandSpi'ingfield.' ' ,., Challenges . Existing workforce hasdower educational attainmenfthan .. ' regional'averages " ' . Potential difficulty in finding dependablelaborfor , manufacturing jobs . Lack o~ large parcels of land; 'nearhighways:~. : - ' . Co~t of land' . Short-ferm availability . Cost of providing infrastructure . _. . . 4 ~ Firms'fhaf prefer'la~ge, urideveloped.parcels.near" ' . highways are"unlikelyjo, locate in Springfield".unde'r:" , "currenlconditions, such ormanufacturerst,~at.' ' , require'freightaccess.,', , , Springfielej has' sufficient .local 'infrastructure ,to. attract.andretafn 'businesses. " . . Lackof siteswithJ~o6d " . :. tra nspo rtatio'n access ,especialiy' to I-S ' , 'September 2009 ,Springfield's'highwayandrail:access'issuftiCienrt6 attractffrr)1s,thafneedaccess to markets via,~, ,', . highways;, ' ,Spfingfieldis relativ,ely unlikely to attract;firins that, " , need toCmove large quantities of freight ~fa' trucks -on J:.S:' ' , . "Springfield 'may" be attractive to manufacturers thaf , 'rl'eedaccess.tonatural.resources; However,Jirms dependahfon highway access to fransport large. ,." , ,'quantities of materials may not locate in ,Springfield :untWinfrastructute needs are addressed.', ' ..... Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis . Cost of shipping raw and finished products . " . . ECONorthwest < :Page 131 Category Entrepreneur ship Regulation Taxes Industry clusters Quality of life Opportunities . Proximity of the University of Oregon . Quality of life . Pro-business attitudes among City officials and leaders . Ability to craft regulations that are conducive to business . Property taxes are comparable to Eugene . Presence of a developing medical cluster and existing call center cluster . Opportunities for development of other clusters . High quality of life, including access to recreation, proximity to cultural amenities in Eugene, regional shopping opportunities and environmental quality Challenges 'Implicat~oi1s " . Springfield's image as havi'ng a," Spririgfiefd'~ay be attractive to entrepreneurs 'who" '. "blue collar" business value the City's,quality:of lifeattribLltes, .access~. toC~" " ' environment 'outdoor recreation,' and other locationalattributes:" 'Springfield has opportunities' to encourage: ,'"." , entrepreneurship:throughtontinued improvehienfof~ . ,'the'City's image and through attracting more:, ' 00 pr6fessionaljobs, sLlch as the ,developingmedi'cal ,Cluster. ' , , . Comparatively high System" Development Charges '(SDCs) :' .' High Systems Development" Charges (SDCs) . Availability of sites' . Transportation access,' . Labor availability . Growth management, challenges, such as balancing development with protection of environmental quality , " ' 'Th'e Ci'ty:has th~ opportunity to develop a,regOlatbry ,'fram'ework that can promote economic activi~y' -, , :,through eco.nomicdevelopm~nt policies, 'plans'for , :providinginfrastructure, ,and provision of a vaii~ty,o[ housing types.:: ' , , ' Springfield needs: revenue sources 'for providing , ',pubJic .servicesand infrastructure, just as',other cities " 'do~The,Cityhas options about how to, raise these , "funds: throOgh propertytaxesi:developmeot, fees, and:'other..fees to"' taxes. " , '" "0 ,Springfield maybe'able :to' builo ,employment in.~'o~.. existing clusters, especially:the developihg'medicaL ,'c1uster.Sprihgfield has opportunities to develop "~" ~ '. , ,::'otner' e1usters::suchas high-tech or small scale , ;' . manufacturing; " . .' , ,Springfield's'policychoices wilraffect the, City's qualitydf life,'such'asdecisions regarding"> , " " 'developme':ltof natural areas, housing policie~'l.or." policies that lead to redevelopment of downtown. ~ " ." 0 y ..'.f'- "" Page 132 ) ECONorthwest September 2009, .. '. Draft: Sprin~field Economic Opportunities Analysis ~ Category Innovative capacity Opportunities . Educated regional workforce . Existing professional and business service firms . Proximity to the University of Oregon . Existing businesses, clusters, and innovators in the Region l .,.. ':, ') Challenges · Attracting and retaining':good , , Gbvernmentcan bea key 'part of a commuriit~(s workers in the region' ',' 'innovative culture, through the provision,of serVlces,-': ~ . Availability of higher~end' " and re'gulation'of development and business' " housing andcultural'ame'nities',to ',activities tliatare'respon'sive to the changing, needs~',: attract'creativeeclass workers" "'eofhusihessoH" " , Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis September 2009 , ,:ECQNorthwest ' ," page 133 '<It '~: ,.. , " l " , " .' /" "j' If" II r !111 ~ r ~ liP' CHARACTERISTICS OF SITES NEEDED:rO,'AC,COMM'ODATE , , E~~~OYME~T,G,ROWTH ,'" " ,', :,: ":" " , : J ' ',,', , ' ' ,.~ ,J, _.:', ': _) _ ~ I. ~ ~". ! -' . '," \,.';..' ~ .', ,j;":" <; : / . ~ '" _ ' ,~ " :',; , ;':Ta~let~5 ~~~ar~e~ th~ lotsiz~~.typiC'aUy.ne~ded fofo/D.1~ itt:',s(~~e~ted ;; ',:, " ., indp~tries. The etrlphasis lp Table C-:5 is on new large firIl1s'tPa~ hay~ 'the,', " ' , , .' , ~os't p,9te~t;i~lt?gep~:~afe' e,rilploYIllent gto""th.' :For 'exa~ple,w~e'''th~,: ", ~', :>, " 'Jjur.nb~rof.c,or.l~eriiens~"~tQ,r~~ ill the region is likely'to grow, !heshe'rieeds," " 'forth,ese'storesis notincl:uded iri Table'C~S because theyare,urilikely to ,', gene~ate.sl1b~tanti~1 employment growth: 'Large f<?od stores, which'are, " , typically Sp;OOO to'100,ObO sq.: ft. in size, ar~, ~oreJikely to generate " , ,subs~,~tiale~ploym~l1t growthin theregioIl' ,and ~ese stores requjJ:e 'sites 0(5 to lQ~cr~s.. " ' , ' . " F ' ' , 'J,,' . '" ) :' 'varies 5':10 " 0.5-5 1-5 1-5 1 - 10 1 - 5 More specific site needs and locational issues for firms in potential growth industries include a range of issues. Table C-6 summarizes site needs and key issues related to sites in Springfield. Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis September 2009 ECONorthwest Page 135 , :'Ii' . <>,' I':" Iii il 'I r ! .1: 'f' ' I '! : Table C-6. Summary of site requirem~nts Site Attribute o " F7lat .siie~'. F:lat to'pography (slop~s with grades b~low'" 1 O~) is' neeq~d hyalr116st all fi rnlS i,n~very' ind~stry ,'," exceptJorsl11a!1 ,office :and Commercial firm'sthat , . CQuld be' accomm6dat~9 in. ~mal! :structures built qn ' " " slopecl site's: FI'at~*~sar~ partic~lc:lfly il'J1port,antfor :" Industrial,firrnsin' manufa,ct~iring, trucking;:a,nd ' ':.' ;:- warehousirlg',' since these, firh]s strongly p~efer to locate,allof their'productiori aCtivity on one level with loading dock'accessfor ,heavy trucks. '" ,,' ,,' " " .' . " ,. Parcel cQnfig~ration arid parking~ L~rge Industrial,' and Corru-nercial firrns that require 'orl:-site parking or, , truck ~lccess are.attracted to sites that offer adequate',' flexibility iri sit'ecirculation,and building layout. Parki'ng ,ratios of 0.'5 to 2 spaces 'per, 1 ,000 sq'uare feet' for';' , Industrial a'~d 2 t03 'Sp~q~sper. {'bO'o ~quare'feet, fqr' " C6mmerCiala~~'typical ratios 'forth,esefirms. .In',,'..~,' , . gen~ral r,ecta'ngula~ sites 'are pr~fe~r$d, with ~parc~1 width of at ,le~st206-feet an~ ,length that i~ at least two , tim~s thewidt~for ,buiId.:to':suit 'sites., Parc'e'l width of. at , least 4'00 feet 'is desired forflexibie industrial/b'usiness , park dev~I.o'pmeflts and the' l,a:rges'~, Com,me,rcial' us~rs. Soiltyp~.'Soil stability and gr6und~ibration '" " " charaCteristics are fairly importanl,considerati6ns for ' some 'h'ighlyspecialized manufacturi'ng processes, . " such a$ microchip fabrications. OtherWise soil types are not very important for C~r:nrt1ercial, Office~ or Ir'ldustrial firms~provided.that q~ainag~ isnot a major ,issqe. ' " , Road transportation. J.\1i'firrnsare' heavi'ly dependent upon surface transporta~ion for e,fficient movement of goods, customers,' and workers. Access to an ' adequate highway and arterial roadway network is needed for all industries. Close proximity to a highway or arterial roadway is critical for firms that generate a large volume of truck or auto trips or firms that rely on visibility from passing traffic to help generate business. This need for proximity explains much of the highway strip development prevalent in urban areas today. Rail transportation. Rail access can be very important to certain types of heavy industries. The region has good rail access to many industrial sites. Air transportation. Proximity to air transportation is important for some firms engaged in manufacturing, finance, or business services. , , ~: I ""\ )' .., Com'm~nts" :' The BL~ excluded' I?nds' with sl,opes over '~ ' ,15%.'Some available sites in the ,Glenwooa ': ' :area' have slopes thatexceed,5% wh idi , may' ".,' , :' b~:in~ppropriClte'for some'e.~pi,6y'm~nt oses~" " , " " "I , parcel configuration and parkir)g do not ' a'ppear to be a constraining faCtorwith the '7ity's ~xisting'lan~ba.s~:' ' , I ' ' Soils' do not appear to be a constraining factor .o'~most sites in Springfield. The City may want to 'consiper, , ',Iirniting dev,elopment on 'area,s sych as,^,etla~ds; flood' plains;:riparian corridors, wildlife areas, steep slopes : and other sensitive areas. " ' , Businesses in Springfield have .access tol~5, Highway' 126, Highway 99 (in Eugene), ~nd Highway 5R , Springfield also has a well-developed street network , within the City. The City may need to work with large ,businesses to increase automotive capacity in newly developed areas or in areas where the infensity of employment uses increase substantially. Springfield is served by multiple Union Pacific rail lines. There are two primary junctions in Springfield: (1) the Springfield Junction is located in the Glenwood area in Southwest Springfield and (2) the Mohawk Junction is near the city's southern boundary, near 25th St. Springfield is located 15 miles from the Eugene Airport. Page 136 ECONorthwest September 2009 Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis -it- '~' ,.. ~ ':!: Site ,Attribute ,Transit. Transit ~ccess is mci~t 'iinportant for ~,busiriesses ir)Health Services; which h?ls a high :density6f job~ and consumer,activity, ,and serves segme:nts"o{thepopulaiipn ,#it~qut access to.,ar)' : auto~9biIEL."',:"'-.';: ''':: P', "",' ':,': '\:, :', , \;' -.', Pedestrian" ~nd bicycle facilities. The ,abiiity for' , workers to access amenit,iesandsupport servic~s 'such as retail, banking, and recr~ation areas by foot or, ' bike j,s increasingly important to empl9yers, particularly, t~ose' with hlgh~wage professio,nal jobs, :rh~ need for, safe ~~de,ffi<;:ient bicycle and peqestrian networ~swiU prove their importance 'ove~, time as support ~ervices " , 'and neighborhood,s are develop'~d adjacent to' " ' errploYhi~.~it ceme~~." ,,' L~botfo.rce. ,Firms are looking at reducing t~e,ii workforce risk;' that is, employers want to be' assured of an adequate,laborpool with the skills andqualities, , ~ost ,attr~ctive to that industry ~ Communities can ,at;jdressthis concetn with adequate education and training of its populace.. Firms 'also review turnover rates, productivity levels, types and amount of skilled workers for their industry in the area, management recruitment,' and other labor force ,issues'in a potential site area.' " Amenities., Accordingto the International Economic Development Council59, attracting and retaining skilled workers requires that firms seek out places offering a high quality of life that is vibrant and exciting for a wide range of people and lifestyles. Fiber optics and telephone. Most if not all industries expect access to multiple phone lines, a full range of telecommunication services, and high-speed internet communications. '0' :,' ,'Comltle~ts, Springfield hasaccess,fo t~ansit through the Lane :, Transit District (L 1"0).: Thete: ?Ire multiple ,tius lines that .'run th'rougho~t ~pri"gfield:arid n1ultiplehlises that, ,;, connect Springfi~ld 'andE~ge,n~:' The' EmX bys' rapi,d , transit system serves existing 'and' futu,re eIT)ploy'm~nt, "': nodes in Glenwood, Downt~wn arig ,; ,', : , ,River.Bend/Gateway."" ',: ,,." Springfield has pede'stria'n 'and bicycle, faciiities. 'Springfield iast updated the City Bicycle Plan in 1998: The plan propbses' expan~ion :of bicyCle faCilities to , improve,bicyCle connectivityt,hrbughout theCityand,to · , :'neighb~ri~~ com',munitie~., ,,' " '.., ,",' " ", , people in~pringfieldare ab:l~ to use bicyc,l~ faciliti~s " for 'pomrrluting' iflhf3Y ,live' and w~rkin ~re,as ',of the City , that h~vebicycle Infrastructure.: Commuting via' , ..',~.: , ,peqestrlan'fadlitiesmay be more limited "to 'people who live, rieartheir, ~ork, ' , ',' , ," ' " ",' ", ,: S~'ri~gfield;spede~tricm .and bicycle facilitie's can,he ' used on' conjunction with, LTD bu'ses to provide", ,'.:~ ' opportlinit!~sfor alternative 'methods of commuting for ,peopl~ that, live 'fyrther ;from ,~~rk:' , " ' ' '" Commuting patternswit~in'$pringfield suggest that' 'businesses inSpringfle'ld have',access't9 theworkforc,e, of the Eugene-Springfi~ld Region. , ,', '.' ',', "; , Firms in 'Springfield will need employees with a range :' of Skills, from peoplewit.h customer service skills,~o highly educated professionals. Some types of skills' that employers may"n~ed include: management skills, technology, manufacturing '(e:g., rDachinist or vitood-' ,', working), a range of medical training, creative skills, ' , and other skills or education. The '~ducational and skill requirements of businesses in Springfield are likely to be similar to the needs of businesses throughout the Eugene-Springfield Region. Springfield offers access to outdoor amenities. Many urban 'amenities are available in Springfield and Eugene. : . j , ~. " ~ ~ ',:'l" . ,',. ',', Springfield has access to high-speed telecommunications facilities. 59 International Economic Development Council. "Economic Development Reference Guide," http://www.iedconline.org/hotlinks/SiteSel.html. 10/25/02. Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis September 2009 ECONorthwest Page 137 Site A'ttribute Potable wat.er. 'Potable water needs range' from' ',' 'dqmes,t,ic le,vels to 1,000,000 gallons qr' mo'r~'p~r,day . . fqr ~ome ,manufactu~ing 'firms. Howev~r,enlergin~f ":. tech,~ologles'~,re, allowing mar!Lifacturer~to 'rely' on',) ',re,cyde~ water Wimli'Tlite,cLon'-si,te wat~rstorage and. filter trea~me.nt. The d,emand,fQr watef~or fire" , suppressioQ alsp'~a,ries Wid.el~(' ,',," . . Powerr~qu'ii~~ments. ElectriCity powe'r requirerllents ' , r~nge from redundant (uninterrupted, multi-sourced supply) 115 kva to 230 kv~. Average'daily power' ' demarld (asmeasureq in ~ilowatt hou'rs) generally;" . ranges from approximately 5,000 kWh for small , '" business '~ervice ,operatiopsto ,30,QOOkwh. for very'" la~ge rnahufacturing'operations. Thehighest power", " 'n:~quirements are associat~d with ma~ufacturing firms,'" particljlarly fabricat~d' m~t~I,andelectronics. ,For, ,', ' ' , , ,compa,risorl';:the typic~lh6use,holdrequfr~s ~,500~h' perday~,'" " ," ',',,' ' Lan~Js~,buffers.Accordirl~ lathe publiC offici~ls and 'developers/br()kers, ECO has ,in(erview~p,. ,Ifldu~trial' 'areas have operational characteristics that do not ,,' 'plend aswell With residentiailand"Lis~sasthey dO,with' .office .an<;t Comni~rcial ar~as. Generally,'8s the , function of industria'l use, intensifies (e.g., heayY' " manufatturing)sb too does the im'portance ofbufferirig to mitigate impacts of noise, odors; tr~ffic,' and 24-hour .7~day'w~ek operations. Adequate buffers 'may consist of vegetation,landsca'ped,swales, roadways,,'and public use pa~slrecreation a,re9s. DE3pendirigupon the industrial Lise and site topography, site buffers range from approximately 50 to 1 DO feet. Selected ' commercial office,retail, lodging and mi~ed-use (e.g., apartments or office over retail) activities are becoming acceptable adjacent uses to light industrial areas. , Iii 'I it ~. ... '11" 'Comtn~nts "Sf;irlrgfield has sufficient potable w~ter to meet current ~nd expeCted ~eeds. ,;, ~ ' ~. - l:; :; " , ' . " , Spri'ngtield',has access'to' sufficient j:>6~e'r'supply to, accom'modate most commerCial and' industrial users. LONG-TERM LAND AND SITE NEEDS Table C-3, presented earlier in this appendix, discusses Springfield's forecast for employment by building type. The analysis of long-term site needs in Springfield builds off of the employment forecast for Springfield. Consistent with the requirements of OAR 660-009-0015(2), the site needs analysis presented in this section identifies the number of sites by broad category of site type and size reasonably expected to be needed for the 20- year planning period. The steps in to get from the employment forecast in Table C-3 to an estimate of needed sites are: . Determine the amount of employment that can be accommodated in non-employment plan designations. Page 138 ECONorthwest September 2009 Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis I' , ' 'I! I I"} Iii, !lii!111 'Iii 'I I:, ... f. J.- · Allocate ne:w employment requiring land in employment desigriatio,lls60 t9 s~tes J;allgipg ~,size fro~ less ~~n ~-acre to gre,ater th~5Q7~cres~, nus alJpcC}ti~n is ba~ed on,1Mstot:~c eir,Lp~~yin~rtt fa,tt~~" di~,c~$s~sl'~ f\~I?en~p< i\.~<. ',,: .':', ' " ,', ' ,. " ." , Es~ate the rea~on~ble ~ang~ ~f ~ite,s peeded b,~i'~,e(f OJ) '~~ ' " ,',; :', , '" ",,:'~mployIrierit forecast, hist<;>riC develppment pa~eins~ cin<:i ~~d 'r~developm~nt potential. ", , ' ,,' · Estimat~, the needed site~ by site size and building tYpe, using the 'range of sites identifie~ in the p~evious step., . -., , , " , . ' . . The remainder ~ffuis s~cti()n is org~~d based on these step~. " In 2006, 'approximate~y 16 % 'of ~pringfiel~' s empl~Y~e.ri~~~s loc~b~d, m " n()i1~ewployt?ient(Rredc)mirian~y'r'~sid~~tial) plan '~~slgliatioiLs,.,~al?le,A~:", ," " , ,9 alia ~apA-1 shpw the 10cC}tio~ of~xisting employment in Sprmgfield.:, ' , , We a~sumed ''that a simila! percentage ,of ~~ploythent'.~otlldcQntinue ' ,,:', , loc~futg in nqn-~njpl~ym~nt designa~o~. "',' "',", ',' '; i 1" _. 'fabie c~i sho""s'etnploymentgrowth by the emploYJ;l1ent locatio!}. Table', ' ' , c- i assumes mak~s tWo assump~ons tqat' ~ecrease land nee<;led 'for new employment ' ,. Some employment growthw~II oc,cur on i~J;ld not designated ' for employment use. Some n~w;e~ployment will occur outside, ' commercial and industrial btrilt space or land. For example~ some construction contractors may work out of their homes, with no need for a shop or office space on non-residential land. Currently 16% of employment is located in residential zones. ECO assumed that this trend will coritinue. · Some employment growth will not require new commercial or industrial built space or land. Some employment growth will be accommodated on existing developed or redeveloped land, as when an existing firm adds employees without expanding space. Typically about 10 to 15% of new employment is accommodated in existing commercial or industrial built space. ECO assumed that 10% of new employment will be accommodated in existing commercial or industrial built space. Using these assumptions, Springfield will need to provide land for approximately 10,177 new employees between 2010 and 2030. 60 Not all new employment will require additional land in employment zoning designations. Some employment growth will occur on land not designated for employment use (e.g., employment in residential zones) and some employment growth will not require new commercial or industrial built space or land (e.g., new employment accommodated in existing built space). Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis September 2009 ECONorthwest Page 139 -~-.-- -'. ." Table C-7. New employment locating in non-employment plan designations" Springfield, 2030 Em 10 ment Location Non- ,', E~isting "New',' employment ,~6m.&)."d. ,Employment ,Employmerlt ,~designti~ns Built Space, ,on N'ew Land J ~ : !, ! 'Type Industrial' Warehousing & Distribution, General Industrial Commercial Office Retail Other Services ' , ,Total, Source: ECONorth~est " 389 0 39 350 ' 1,066 0 107 ,959 4,713 754 471 3,488 2,043 327, ' 204 1,512 5,229 ' 837 523 3;869 13,440 ' 1,918 1,344 ' ,10,178' , , , Deter~g Springfield's site needs 'req~rres distributlTIg employm~n~to : , a range 'of site ~siz,es, ranging from, small sites (less than i acre and 1, to 2 ' ' acre sites).td large sites (20 to SO acre and sites greater than SOa~tes).Table C-8 shows the distribution of employees, by building type'and site size in non~residential plan designations in Spring#eld in 2006. About 22 % ,of Springfield's employment is on site's S to 20 acres> 21 % is on sites of less' 'than I-acre, and ,19% is on'sites greater than 50 acres. ' Table C,-8.Percerit of empl9yees by builcjing type and site sizes, Springfield, 2006 ' Less Site Size (acres) ," , Greater '" Total Building Type than 1 1 to 2 2 to 5 ' , 5 to 20 20 to 50 than 50 Employees Warehousing & Distribution 13% 6% 3% 63% 12% 3% ,100% General Industrial 15% 17% 17% 18% 2% 31% 100% 'Office 28% 14% 15% 23% 13% 8% 100% ' Retail 29% 13% 11% 18% 10% 18% 100% Other Services 9% 4% 8% 5% 35% 38% 100% Total 21 % 12% 12% 22% 13% 19% 1 00% Source: ECONorthwest based on QCEW data Note: Total Employees may not add to 100% because of rounding errors. The percent of employees by building type and site size was calculated based on the number of employees in each building type and site size categories using QCEW data and City of Springfield tax lot data. Table C-9 distributes employees (shown in Table C-7) based on the historic distribution of employment by site size and building type shown in Table C-8. In other words, the analysis assumes that future employment will require similar site sizes as current firms. For example, 21 % of employment will locate on sites less than 1 acre. Page 140 ECONorthwest September 2009 Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis r, I 'ii : ill: -, I II )11" I,ll ..... <<'- . II' I' - ~ ,[I:: t.~'1 1:111 ;~ Table C-9. Fore~~st of growth employment by building type and site size, Spri~gfield, ,2010 to_ 20~Q' , ,G~eat~r", Total than sq" Employees o ij:~~iiding"Type, ,1 to:2 2'toS, 5 to 20 ".'20 to 50 ; ,.} , · War~h9using & ~istribution General.lndustrial Office Retai'l Other SerVices 'Total 46 , 141 1,024, 143, 817 , ,':2,171 21 , 161 .448 65, 451 1,148 , 9 167 0400 116 ' 460 ,': 1,153 '. 41 20 , ,338; ; 535 , , 520 1,454 , ":::~2' 302 ,632 , 576 '752 2,274 '350 959 3,488', 1,51,2 :3,869 10,178 221 ' 168 645 "76 .869 1 ,979 sourCe:' ECONorthwest '" '. , . " ., , " Note: The number of employees' by site size may not add to the total shown in T abie 6-9 as a result of small' rounding errors' in the ,', :calc~lationofnumberofemployees.,,',: ' ", ,,',', ' ", ' " , " " ' , , , . I . Tabl~'c-io :s~()\v~fue;:ral)ge ()f~itesneed~dby~itesiZe'~dbuil~~g type,', in Springfield in 2030. The table uses 'information' the following' " ',. , ' infor~atipn to deter~e the range, ?f site needs: " " .. " , , , .. . Total e~pioYD1e!lt" is 'elriploym61t by ~ite size frOlll T abl~ C -9, · Average' employees per ,fit-ht' is based o~ analysi~ at the'aver~ge ' number ()f employees per firin by site size inSpririgfleldni 2006. · Needed sites based on ~i~to!ic employment patte~ns es~ates the number of site's J:le'ede~ by dividing the total employment by average number of employees per firm.' Although 'this calculation provides a reasoI1able estimate of the number of sites needed based on historical data, it does n?t take into account redev'elopment potential of existing sites or the need for a variety of sites. · Range of needed sites presents a range of needed sites based on the employment forecast, historical development patterns, and potential for redevelopment. Table C-10. Range of needed sites by site size and building type, Springfield, 2010 to 2030 181 180 to 250 38 40 to 70 Site Size (acres) 30 30 to 60 20 20 to 45 2 2 273 275 to 435 Less Greater than 1 1 to 2 2 to 5 5 to 20 20 to 50 than 50 Total Total Employment, ,2,171, 1,148 1,153 1,979 1..454 .~_~,~,~1Q!178 AverageEmployees- ---~.._~,--~- . per Firm 12 30 39 101 594 1 ,432 Needed Sites based~~'~--------~--~~~~-- ------- on historic employment patterns Range of needed sites 3to 6 2 t04 Source: ECONorthwest Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis Page 141 September 2009 ECONorthwest I: :1 j- I' ._ i. ;..- ~ Tab~e <=;:-11 presents and e,stimate of needed sites by site size and type of buildirig. The results show that Springfield needs approximately 371 sites. Most sites are s,~~ll,2-acres or less. Springfield ~ee4s appro~imalely 8 ' ~ites ~arger,than 20-acres. '" .- ) ) ~" . , Tab'~ C-11. Fstimated, needed sites by sit~ si;z;e'and b~ilding type, ' Springfield, 201 0 ~o, 20~0 '" ' Buil,ding Type Warehousing & Distribution General I ndustrial Office Retail Other Services Total Less , than '1 ',' 1 to 2 Site Size (acres) G reater Total 2 to 5 ,5 to 20 20 to 50 than 50 ", Sites 3 5 1 .7 10 11 3 20 20 5 1 15 " 10 4 18 5 5 60 48 ' ,30 "'; 5 " 9' 3 39 146 ,99 ,78 '3" ,,371 , Source: ECONorthwest " , , The identified site needs shown in Table C~ll do notdistingui'sh sites by . comprehensive plan desigllClti~n.' It is reasonable to assume that industrial" , uses will ,primarily l~catem'industrial zories.~etail and service uses co~ld locate in commercial zones, mixed rise zones,' and residential zones. , ' Page 142 ECONorthwest September 2009 Draft: Springfield Economic Opportunities Analysis '(\ Economic Development Objectives and Implementation Strategies October 15, 2008 Page 1 ECONorthwest,<, ECONOMICS. FINANCe.. PLANNING Phone · (541) 687-0051 FAX . (541) 344-0562 info@eugene.econw.com Suite 400 99 W. 10th Avenue Eugene, Oregon '97401-3001 Other Offices Portland. (503) 222-6060 Seattle. (206) 622-2403 October 15, 2008 TO: FROM: SUBJECT: Springfield City Council & Planning Commission Bob Parker and Beth Goodman ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES AND IMPLEMENTATION STRATEGIES The City of Springfield is conducting a Commercial Industrial Buildable Land Needs analysis. Broadly, the project has three components: (1) a buildable lands inventory; (2) an economic opportunities analysis; and (3) an economic development strategy. All of these elements are required to comply with statewide planning Goal 9 and the'Goal9 rule (OAR 660-009). The economic development strategy builds from previous work by the City and will be used to guide development of land-use policies to implement the City's economic development vision. Economic development policies may address a range of outcomes, from policies to attract firms or retain existing firms to policies to improve or maintain quality of life. The economic development strategy presented in this memorandum was developed in support of the EOA and is designed to meet the requirements of Goal 9. As a result, the economic development strategy focuses on land-use issues, without addressing broader economic development strategies such as labor force education that may also be a priority to the City and residents of Springfield. The economic development strategy is the result of input from multiple sources: · City Council and Planning Commission. At joint worksessions in June 2008, decisionmakers provided guidance on economic development objectives for Springfield. · Commercial Industrial Buildable Lands Stakeholder Committee. The Stakeholder Committee provided input on the economic development objectives suggested by decisionmakers and suggested implementation strategies for each objective. · Community Development Survey. The City administered anon-line survey about community development issues. · Visioning Workshops. The City of Springfield held two community workshops to discuss community development issues. · Springfield Economic Development Plan. The City of Springfield completed a draft Economic Development Plan, dated April 13, 2006. The Economic Development Plan addresses a range of economic development issues, including (but not limited to) land- use planning for economic growth. Attachment 2, page 1 Economic Development Objectives and Implementation Strategies October 15, 2008 Page 2 ORGANIZATION OF THIS MEMORANDUM The remainder of the memorandum is organized as follows: · Public Opinions about Economic Development Summarizes selected results from the on-line community development survey and the public workshops. · Framework for Understanding Economic Development Policies and Actions provides an overview of economic development issues and types of economic development policies and strategies that municipalities can adopt to achieve various economic development goals. · Economic Development Strategies and Implementation Steps for Springfield presents objectives and strategies related to land-use to implement the City's economic development goals. · Appendix A: Metro Plan Economic Element presents the, economic goal, findings, objectives and policies from the Metro Plan to provide context about existing regional economic development policies. PUBLIC OPINIONS ABOUT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT While the analysis required to meet Goal 9 emphasizes market conditions and local productive factors as the primary determinant of potential economic growth, Oregon's Statewide Planning Goals also recognize a role for local governments and citizens to express their desire for the level and type of economic growth in their community. The desires of a city are formally stated in its adopted Comprehensive Plan, economic development plans, and refinement plans. Development of these plans always includes opportunities for public comment and plans are adopted by elected bodies, so these plans collectively represent the community economic development VISIon. The 2004 Update of the Eugene-Springfield Metropolitan Area General Plan includes an economic element that articulates the region's economic goals and objectives (presented in Appendix A). The Metro Plan lists a single economic development goal: Broaden, improve, and diversify the metropolitan economy while maintaining or enhancing the environment. The range of views by individual citizens, however, is more diverse than the consensus represented in adopted plans. This project included two public workshops and an online survey to solicit citizen's views on economic opportunities in Springfield, issues affecting economic development, and potential policies to address these issues. This section summarizes the views expressed at the public workshop and in the online survey. RESULTS OF THE ONLINE SURVEY As a part of this project, ECONorthwest developed and implemented an online survey from April 4, 2008 through May 27, 2008. The intent of the survey was to collect anecdotal information on the opinions and preferences of survey respondents on a variety of community Attachment 2, page 2 Economic Development Objectives October 15, 2008 Page 3 and Implementation Strategies development issues ranging from pace of growth to the importance of amenities and issues to opinions about broad economic development policies. Following is a summary of the key findings from the survey. The survey had 214 respondents, with 186 respondents completing the entire survey, nearly three-quarters of whom lived inside the Springfield Urban Growth Boundary (UGB). · A majority of survey respondents (60%) think that Springfield is a better place to live than it was 10 years ago. Respondents identified a broad range of reasons. Some frequently mentioned reasons were new businesses, newer, more vibrant buildings, an improved downtown, and the ErnX. · About 66% of respondents felt the rate of growth was "about right," while about 18% indicated it is "too fast." The remaining 16% of respondents thought that growth was too slow (10%) or did not have an opinion (6%). · About 76% of respondents felt that the city should "manage growth" as opposed to limited growth or pursuing faster rates of growth. About 78% of respondents thought that Springfield should manage growth by targeting specific types of employers. · Respondents identified the following three land-use issues as the top problems in Springfield: (1) availability of family wage jobs; (2) development on steep slopes and in floodplains; and (3) availability of affordable housing. · A majority of respondents felt that redevelopment is a high priority in Downtown (71 %) and in Glenwood (63%). · A majority of respondents support economic development policies that increase economic activity, including policies to recruit new businesses and retain existing businesses. · About 85% of respondents supported policies to maintain Springfield's existing environmental quality. RESULTS OF PUBLIC WORKSHOP The City of Springfield held two community workshops to discuss community development issues, one on May 20, 2008 and one on July 31, 2008. The intent of the workshops was to collect anecdotal information on the opinions and preferences about community issues. At the workshops, small groups formed to discuss issues of concern for developing Springfield's economy. The City summarized the results of each group's discussion. This section summarizes the themes discussed the workshops. Attachment 2, page 3 Economic Development Objectives and Implementation Strategies Table 1. Summary of input from the Springfield Economic Development Workshop October: 15, 2008 Page 4 Category Issues and themes Jobs and the Attract businesses that provide stable, living or family wage jobs that provide benefits economy Recruit businesses that provide green or sustainable products Lower the costs of doing business in the City, such as system dev~lopment charges and permitting fees Attract businesses to the City through the use of enterprise zones Sustainability Balance environmental protection and greenfield development and the Encourage green building practices for new development environment Capitalize on opportunities to increase walkability and bicycling Land use and Balance the use of developing green-fields with redeveloping existing land and zoning emphasizing infill Encourage more efficient land uses, including higher density development where appropriate Promote nodal development and mixed-use development, especially in downtown Provide opportunities for high quality development along the riverfront Reevaluate allowable uses, especially near schools Consider parking and transportation needs when planning for new uses, especially In downtown Redevelopment Focus on redevelopment in downtown and Glenwood. Revitalize downtown through redevelopment and rehabilitation of old buildings Promote re-use of vacant buildings in downtown Keep a historical perspective when considering redevelopment Source: Springfield economic development workshops, May 20, 2008 and July 31, 2008 FRAMEWORK FOR UNDERSTANDING ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT POLICIES AND ACTIONS, A wide range of economic development policies and actions are available to cities that can affect the level and type of economic development in their community. To affect economic development, any policy or action must affect a factor of production that influence business locations and job growth. In brief, the factors that have the most impact on business locations and job growth are: . Labor . Land . Local Infrastructure . Access to markets and materials . Agglomerative economies (clusters) . Quality of life . Entrepreneurship Attachment 2, page 4 Economic Development Objectives October 15, 2008 Page 5 and Implementation Strategies The supply, cost, and quality of any of these factors obviously depend on national and global market forces that local government has no influence over. But they also depend on public policy, which can generally affect these factors of production through: . Planning . Regulation . Provision of public services . Taxes . Incentives The location decisions of businesses are primarily based on the availability and cost of labor, transportation, raw materials, and capital. The availability and cost of these production factors are usually similar within a region. Most economic development strategies available to local governments only indirectly affect the cost and quality of these primary location factors. Local governments can most directly affect tax rates (within the bounds of Measures 5 and 50), the cost to businesses and quality of public services, and regulatory policies. Economists generally agree that these factors do affect economic development, but the effects on economic development are modest. Thus, most of the strategies available to local governments have only a modest affect on the level and type of economic development in the community. Local governments in Oregon also playa central role in the provision of buildable land through inclusion in the Urban Growth Boundary, plan designation, zoning, and provision of public services. Obviously, businesses need buildable land to locate or expand in a community. Providing buildable land alone is not sufficient to guarantee economic development in a community-market conditions must create demand for this land, and local factors of production must be favorable for business activity. The provision of buildable land is one of the most direct ways that the City of Springfield can affect the level and type of economic development in the community. POTENTIAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT POLICIES AND ACTIONS A broad range of policies and actions are available to cities in achieving local economic development objectives. The effectiveness of any individual tool or combination of tools depends on the specific objectives the municipality wants to achieve. In short, local strategies should be customized not only to meet locally defined objectives, but to recognize economic opportunities and limitations (as defined in the Economic Opportunity Analysis (EOA)). Positive outcomes are not guaranteed: even good programs can result in limi~ed or modest results. Table 2 identifies a range of potential economic development strategies that the City of Springfield could consider implementing. These strategies range from those closely associated with the basic functions of government (provision of buildable land and public services) to those sometimes viewed as outside the primary functions of government (such as financial incentives and business assistance). The actual policies and actions adopted by the City of Springfield will depend on the specific economic development issues and the role of the City in economic development in the community. Attachment 2, page 5 Economic Development Objectives and Implementation Strategies October 15, 2008 Page 6 Table 2. Range of potential economic development strategies Category/Policy Description Land Use Policies regarding the amount and location of available land and allowed uses. Provide adequate supply Provide an adequate supply of development sites to accommodate of land anticipated employment growth with the public and private services, sizes, zoning, and other characteristics needed by firms likely to locate in Springfield. Increase the efficiency Take actions to reduce costs and time for development permits. Adopt of the permitting process development codes and land use plans that are clear and concise. and simplify city land- use policies Public Services Provide adequate infrastructure to support employment growth Focused public investment Communications infrastructure Business Assistance Business retention and growth Recruitment and marketing Development districts (enterprise zones, renewal districts, etc.) Business clusters Public/private partnerships Financial assistance Business incubators Mentoring and advice Export promotion Policies regarding the level and quality of public and private infrastructure and services. Provide adequate public services (Le. roads, transportation, water, and sewer) and take action to assure adequate private utilities (Le. electricity and communications) are provided to existing businesses and development sites. Provide public and private infrastructure to identified development or redevelopment sites. Actions to provide high-speed communication infrastructure, such as developing a local fiber optic network. Policies to assist existing businesses and attract new businesses. Targeted assistance to businesses facing financial difficulty or thinking of moving out of the community. Assistance would vary depending on a given business' problems and could range from business loans to upgrades in infrastructure to assistance in finding a new location within the community. Establish a program to market the community as a location for business in general, and target relocating firms to diversify and strengthen the local economy. Take steps to provide readily available development sites, an efficient permitting process, well-trained workforce, and perception of high quality of life. Establish districts with tax abatements, loans, assist with infrastructure, reduced regulation, or other incentives available to businesses in the district that meet specified criteria and help achieve community goals. Help develop business clusters through business recruitment and business retention policies. Encourage siting of businesses to provide shared services to the business clusters, including retail and commercial services. Make public land or facilities available, public lease commitment in proposed development, provide parking, and other support services. Tax abatement, waivers, loans, grants, and financing for firms meeting specified criteria. Can be targeted as desired to support goal such as recruitment, retention, expansion, family-wage jobs, or sustainable industry. Help develop low-cost space for use by new and expanding firms with shared office services, access to equipment, networking opportunities, and business development information. Designate land for live-work opportunities. Provide low-cost mentors and advice for local small businesses in the area of management, marketing, accounting, financing, and other business skills. Assist businesses in identifying and expanding into new products and export markets; represent local firms at trade shows and missions. Attachment 2, page 6 Economic Development Objectives and Implementation Strategies October 15,2008 Page 7 Category/Policy Workforce Job training Job access Jobs/housing balance Description Policies to improve the quality of the workforce available to local firms. Create opportunities for training in general or implement training programs for specific jobs or specific population groups (i.e. dislocated workers). Provide transiUshuttle service to bring workers to job sites. Make land available for a variety of low-cost housing types for lower income households, ranging from single-family housing types to multifamily housing. Other Regional collaboration Quality of life Coordinate economic development efforts with the County, the State, and local jurisdictions, utilities, and agencies so that clear and consistent policies are developed. Maintain and enhance quality of life through good schools, cultural programs, recreational opportunities, adequate health care facilities, affordable housing, neighborhood protection, and environmental amenities. Source: ECONorthwest. ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES AND IMPLEMENTATION STEPS FOR SPRINGFIELD The following economic development strategies for Springfield are based on five sources of information: (l) guidance on developing the strategies from the City Council and Planning Commission; (2) input from the Stakeholder Committee on the strategies and implementation steps; (3) public input on preferred types of growth and development strategies from the visioning survey and public workshops; (4) existing goals and strategies in the Economic Development Plan;, and (5) the principles of economic development presented in the section above and Table 2. Together these considerations suggest the following criteria and strategy for the City to support economic development in Springfield. The strategies and implementation steps suggested below are organized with objectives most related to land-use planning presented first. The objectives were proposed by Springfield's decisionmakers or through the Stakeholder group. The implementation strategies was developed by the Stakeholder group or taken from Springfield's draft Economic Development Plan. Objective 1: Provide an adequate supply of sites of varying locations, configurations, and size, to accommodate industrial and other employment over the planning period. The Economic Opportunities Analysis (EOA) identifies the size and characteristics of sites needed in Springfield for employment uses over the planning period. Using the site needs described in the EOA, the City should track employment land use trends and re-evaluate employment land needs in five to seven years. The City should always maintain an adequate supply of land for employment uses. Suggested implementation steps: · Provide land to meet the site characteristics and site sizes described in the EOA. These sites may include vacant, undeveloped land, partially developed sites with Attachment 2, page 7 Economic Development Objectives and Implementation Strategies potential for additional development through infill development, and redevelopable areas. The City can provide land in two ways: (1) increasing commercial and industrial land-use efficiency by promoting infill or redevelopment or (2) bringing new land into the urban growth boundary. . Work with property owners and their representatives to ensure that prime development and redevelopment sites throughout the City and Urban Growth Boundary are known, aggregated, ready to develop, and marketed. October 15,2008 Page 8 . Work with property owners and their representatives to ensure that prime development and redevelopment sites throughout the City and Urban Growth Boundary that are designated for employment use are preserved for future employment needs and are not subdivided or used for non-employment uses. . Expand industrial site opportunities through rezoning and evaluating commercial, residential, and industrial land for the best economic return for the community through the process of Periodic Review of the Metro Plan, expanding the urban growth boundary, and other means (e.g., Transportation Growth Management Grants from the State of Oregon). . Develop and implement a system to monitor the supply of commercial and industrial lands. This includes monitoring commercial and industrial development (through permits) as well as land consumption (e.g. development on vacant, or redevelopable lands) . Objective 2: Provide an adequate competitive short-term supply of suitable land to respond to economic development opportunities as they arise. "Short-term supply" means suitable land that is ready for construction usually within one year of an application for a building permit or request for service extension. "Competitive Short-term Supply" means the short-term supply of land provides a range of site sizes and locations to accommodate the market needs of a variety of industrial and other employment uses. Suggested implementation steps: . Where possible, concentrate development on sites with existing infrastructure or on sites where infrastructure can be provided relatively easily and at a comparatively low cost. . Work with the State to have sites certified as project-ready through the state's certified Industrial Lands program. . Track development of land in the short-term supply and replace developed land with undeveloped or redevelopable land with similar characteristics (e.g., location, size, topography, etc.) as the land that recently developed. The City may want to replenish the short-term supply of land on an annual basis or every two to three years. Objective 3: Reserve sites over 20-acres for special developments and industries that require large sites. There are comparatively few large sites relatively near to 1-5 available for development in the Southern Willamette Valley and no sites with these characteristics in the Eugene-Springfield Attachment 2, page 8 Economic Development Objectives October 15, 2008 Page 9 and Implementation Strategies area.! The City should preserve large sites, especially sites with access to 1-5, to provide opportunities for development by industries that require large sites. Suggested implementation steps: . Designate land for industrial or business parks to provide opportunities for development of business clusters for related or complementary businesses. . Develop policies that provide flexibility in the industrial or non-retail commercial use of land on large sites. Objective 4: Provide adequate infrastructure efficiently and fairly. Public infrastructure and services are a cornerstone of any economic development strategy. If roads, water, sewer, and other public facilities are unavailable or inadequate, industries will have little incentive to locate in a community. Suggested implementation steps: · Coordinate capital improvement planning with land use and transportation planning to coincide with the City's Economic Development Strategy. · Target resources of the Systems Development Funds of infrastructure on sites that provide prime opportunities for employment uses as a result of location, site size, or other significant site characteristics. · Ensure that public-private development agreements to recover costs are in effect prior to financing public improvements. · Establish alternative funding mechanisms in addition to debt service that provide timely completion of 'connecting' public facilities (unpaved block of a street or missing sections of sewer line) with preferences to projects in existing neighborhoods and those fostering economic development. · Efficiently use existing infrastructure by promoting development, infill, re-use, and redevelopment for commercial and industrial uses and developing strategies and incentives to stimulate private investment that overcome anticipated impacts or downturns in the local economy. · Support development of citywide high-speed internet access and other telecommunications infrastructures. · Provide information on infrastructure availability on a site-by-site basis so that developers are able to readily assess infrastructure availability on any given site. · Assist with providing infrastructure through the use of Urban Renewal funding, where appropriate. 1 According to Oregon Prospector, there are only nine sites in the Southern Willamette Valley with the following characteristics: 20 acres or larger, Project Certified, and within about five miles ofl-5. The following counties have sites that match these characteristics: three sites in Marion County, one site in Benton County, two sites in Linn County, no sites in Lane County, and three sites in Douglas County. Attachment 2, page 9 Economic Development Objectives and Implementation Strategies . Assess lower systems development charges (SDCs) in redevelopment areas with the capacity to provide land for employment, especially for redevelopment of areas five acres and larger. October 15, 2008 Page 10 Objective 5: Encourage employers to locate in downtown Springfield, when appropriate. The City has policies to encourage residential and commercial redevelopment in downtown. The redevelopment of downtown Springfield provides opportunities to both use land more efficiently and minimize the costs of providing infrastructure. Suggested implementation steps: . Support the continued revitalization of Springfield's Downtown . Pursue policies to promote infill and redevelopment in downtown Springfield . Provide the infrastructure and services that businesses need to operate in downtown Springfield . Develop programs to promote investments in existing buildings to make downtown more attractive, such as the Urban Renewal program. . Develop a marketing strategy to attract businesses to downtown Springfield, including providing low-cost assistance for businesses moving to downtown Objective 6: Encourage redevelopment of Glenwood with a mixed use employment and housing center. ' The City has policies to encourage residential and commercial redevelopment in Glenwood. Like redevelopment in downtown, redevelopment in Glenwood provides opportunities to' both use land more efficiently and minimize the costs of providing infrastructure. Suggested implementation steps: . Redevelop and develop sites in Glenwood through key investments, special standards, and focused activity through the Springfield Economic Development Agency (SEDA), the Glenwood Urban Renewal Plan, the Glenwood Refinement Plan and the Riverfront Development Plan. . Provide the infrastructure and services to necessary for development in Glenwood. . Coordinate economic development in Glenwood with regional economic development agencies. . Promote economic development in Glenwood through techniques, such as land assembly and cooperative development agreements, to assist developers with land assembly problems. Attachment 2, page 10 Economic Development Objectives and Implementation Strategies Objective 7: Redevelop brownfields as the opportunities for reuse arise. Springfield has more than 20 brownfield sites that will require clean-up before the sites can be redeveloped. Springfield has about 20 to 50 more sites that may be brownfields if the sites were available for redevelopment. The cost of clean-up will vary, depending ,on the prior uses and type of contamination on the site. October 15, 2008 Page 11 Suggested implementation steps: · Inventory existing brownfields in the Springfield UGB. The inventory should include information about the site and brownfield: site location and size, previous uses, pollution or contaminants, and other site characteristics. · Develop policies that support redevelopment of brownfields. Opportunities to encourage brownfield redevelopment may include tax incentives, decreases or waiving development fees, or private-public partnerships for state or federal grant funding for brownfield redevelopment. · Provide non-monetary assistance with clean-up and redevelopment of 'brownfield' commercial and industrial sites, including, for example, the possible sponsorship of applicable state and federal grants. Objective 8: Encourage development of commercial businesses in close proximity with residential uses, where appropriate. Mixing commercial and residential development is appropriate in some areas of Springfield. The City should encourage mixed used development that includes retail, office commercial, and multifamily housing in areas like downtown. In more residential neighborhoods, the City should consider mixing neighborhood retail or small-scale offices with residential uses. Suggested implementation steps: · Continue to support policies to encourage mixed-us,e development and nodal development in Springfield's downtown, Glenwood, and mixed-use nodes identified in TransPlan. · Support policies to mix small-scale commercial uses into existing and new residential neighborhoods where these uses are appropri~te and acceptable to residents. · Support the co-location of residential and commercial uses in existing buildings by providing financial assistance for necessary building upgrades to meet requirements in the City's building code, such as improvements to meet seismic standards. · Reduce systems development charges (SDCs) and other development costs to encourage redevelopment and commercial uses in residential areas, where appropriate. Attachment 2, page 11 Economic Development Objectives and Implementation Strategies Objective 9: Support and assist existing businesses in Springfield. October 15, 2008 Page 12 Springfield's exi/sting businesses are important to the City's continuing economic well-being. Suggested implementation steps: · Develop and implement an outreach strategy to determine how the City can assist existing businesses. Opportunities for assistance may range from ensuring availability of on-street parking to providing assistance with the development process to forming public-private partnerships to promote Springfield businesses. · Encourage self-help methods and programs for business districts such as the formation of business associations and special self-assessment districts for parking and economic improvement. · Pursue special projects and grant applications that provide support to local business and industry. · Support the co-location of residential and commercial uses in existing buildings by providing financial assistance for necessary building upgrades to meet requirements in the City's building code, such as improvements to meet seismic standards. · Reduce systems development charges (SDCs) and other development costs to encourage redevelopment and commercial uses in residential areas, where appropriate. Objective 10: Increase the potential for employment in one of the regional industry clusters. The clusters include: Health Care, Communication Equipment, Information Technology (Software), Metals (Wholesalers), Processed Food and Beverage, Wood & Forest Products, and Transportation Equipment. Suggested implementation steps: . Provide the services, infrastructure, and land needed to attract these types of businesses, especially where it can increase connectivity between businesses. . Designate land for industrialltechnologylbusiness parks to provide opportunities for development of business clusters for related or complementary businesses. . Promote development of support businesses for business clusters, including specialized suppliers for the business cluster, restaurants, financial institutions, and other services. . Promote further development of the health care cluster in the Gateway area by examining land-use policies in the area and, if necessary, modify the policies to promote development of medical and other employment that requires specific types of land. . Promote development of high-tech businesses by continuing to target these businesses for recruitment and expansion in Springfield. Attachment 2, page 12 Economic Development Objectives and Implementation Strategies . Coordinate development of business clusters with other cities and economic development agencies in the Eugene-Springfield region but emphasize development of the business cluster in Springfield. OCtober 15, 2008 Page 13 Objective 11: Increase the potential for convention- and tourist-r~lated economic activities. Tourism results in economic activity, especially in the service industries like retail, food services, and accommodations. For example, the direct economic benefit of lodging tax receipts from overnight accommodations to Springfield in 2007 was $1.2 million. Springfield could increase tourism through building tourism-relative facilities, such as a convention center, through growth of businesses that bring tourists to the City, and through increased marketing. Suggested implementation steps: . Assist with conference center development at a suitable site in Springfield with a goal of making it financially independent with self-sustaining operations. · Encourage development of destination point projects (like the Springfield Museum Interpretive Center, Dorris Ranch Living History Farm and McKenzie River fishing and recreational activities) that draw visitors to the Springfield area from regional, national, and international areas. · Ensure that the factors that are likely to attract visitors to Springfield, especially Springfield's environmental quality and natural beauty, are protected and enhanced. Objective 12: Attract sustainable businesses and support sustainable development practices. The City should foster the creation of a local, sustainable economy by partnering with other organizations to watch for opportunities and vulnerabilities, incubate and coordinate projects and facilitate dialogue, action and education within the community. The City should also work to reduce Springfield's exposure to global economic and social vulnerabilities that could result as fuel supplies cease to be abundant and inexpensive. Suggested implementation steps: · Define "sustainable businesses" and what business practices qualify as "sustainable." · Promote and recruit businesses that produce sustainable products, have sustainable business practices, and/or have sustainable manufacturing processes. · Support land use patterns that reduce transportation needs, promote walkability and provide easy access to services and transportation options. ' · Rebate development fees for development projects that are certified as sustainable to nationally recognized standards (e.g., LEED buildings). · Provide incentives for development that uses sustainable building materials or solutions (e.g., instead of using traditional asphalt, using permeable asphalt) or use of sustainable energy sources (e.g., solar or wind power). Attachment 2, page 13 Economic Development Objectives and Implementation Strategies · When developing policies that will impact land outside of the Springfield UGB, consider future agricultural needs and economic opportunities to protect agricultural lands for production of local food. October 15, 2008 Page 14 Objective 13: Recruit businesses that pay higher than average wages for the region. Maintaining and creating high-wage jobs is important for the development of Springfield's economy. Economic development recruitment efforts the City engages in should target high- wage jobs. Suggested implementation steps: · Work with Lane Metro Partnership and other economic development organizations to target and recruit businesses: (1) with above average wages (as reported by the Oregon Employment Department), (2) other benefits such as health insurance, especially for part-time employees, and/or (3) that provide other benefits such as job advancement or ownership opportunities. · Work with local agencies to meet workforce needs, such as: training and education, job advancement, or local expansion of businesses that are less subject to boom and bust cycles. · Coordinate with community economic development organizations to develop a coherent and effective marketing program. Coordinate development of the strategy local and state economic development agencies. · Use word-of-mouth to market Springfield to prospective businesses based on the City's reputation for: rapid processing ofperqIits and applications, maintaining City agreements and commitments, minimizing surprises in the development process, and providing developers with certainty and flexibility in the development process. Depending on this type of marketing will require that the City strive to enhance and maintain the City's reputation for these attributes. Attachment 2, page 14 Economic Development Objectives and Implementation Strategies October 15, 2008 Page 15 APPENDIX A: METRO PLAN ECONOMIC ELEMENT (2004) This appendix is the Economic Element from the 2004 update of the Metropolitan Area General Plan. The purpose of this appendix is to provide context for the existing regional economic development policies. In recent years, there has been a strong structural shift in the Eugene-Springfield metropolitan area's economy. This shift is characterized by four trends: (a) a decline in the lumber and wood products industry as a source of employment; (b) limited increase in employment in other manufacturing activities; (c) diversification of the non-manufacturing segments of the local economy, primarily in trade, services, finance, insurance, and real estate; and (d) the development of this metropolitan area as a regional trade and service center serving southern and eastern Oregon. The decline in lumber and wood products and diversification of the non-manufacturing sectors are consistent with changes that are occurring in other portions of the state and throughout the nation as a result of rising real incomes and higher productivity of labor in manufacturing. The increase in employment in other manufacturing activities in this area has lagged behind other portions of the state, particularly the Portland area, and many other places in the nation. Given the projected growth in this area's economy, it is essential that an adequate supply (quantitatively and qualitatively) of commercial and industrial land be available. An adequate supply of land includes not only sites sufficient in size to accommodate the needs of the commercial or industrial operations (including expansion), but also includes sites which are attractive from the standpoint of esthetics, transportation costs, labor costs, availability of skilled labor, natural resource availability, proximity to markets, and anticipated growth of local markets. In striving toward the Land Conservation and Development Commission's (LCDC) Statewide Planning Goal 9: Economic Development, "To provide adequate opportunities throughout the state for a variety of economic activities vital to the health, welfare, and prosperity of Oregon's citizens," the Eugene-Springfield metropolitan area must take advantage of and encourage the further diversification of this area's economic activities and role as a regional center. This diversification and growth can improve the opportunities for presently underutilized human resources and generally raise the standard of living for metropolitan area residents. Implicit in the goals and objectives that follow is the premise that the economic health of the area is integrally related to the quality of life for residents. Improved welfare of the residents of the metropolitan area, measured by increases in employment opportunities and reductions in unemployment, increases in real incomes, and improved environmental quality are the ultimate goals of all economic efforts. Economic growth or industrial expansion is acceptable when it is consistent with these goals and objectives. ECONOMIC GOAL Broaden, improve, and diversify the metropolitan economy while m~intaining or enhancing the environment. Attachment 2, page 15 Economic Development Objectives and Implementation Strategies October 15, 2008 Page 16 FINDINGS, OBJECTIVES, AND POLICIES Findings 1. 2. The structure of the Eugene-Springfield metropolitan area economy is undergoing a shift away from lumber and wood products manufacturing (and other heavy industrial activities) and towards a more diverse economic base characterized by growth in light manufacturing activities and the non-manufacturing activities of trade, commercial and professional services, fmance, insurance, and real estate. The lumber and wood products sector is the metropolitan area's dominant manufacturing activity; and in this respect, Lane County's forest is the area's most important natural resource utilized as a factor of production. Major institutions in the metropolitan area including the University of Oregon and Sacred Heart Hospital, have had a stabilizing influence on the local economy. The Eugene-Springfield metropolitan area is developing as a regional center for activities, such as tourism, distribution, and financial services, serving the southwestern and central Oregon area. Based on data from the 2000 U.S. Census, the per capita income in 1999 for the Eugene- Springfield metropolitan area was lower than for Oregon as a whole and the Portland metropolitan area. In 2000, the unemployment rate in the Eugene-Springfield metropolitan area was comparable to Oregon and higher than the national rate. Historically, heavy-manufacturing industries, including primary metals, chemicals and paper, have been characterized by high levels of pollution or energy consumption. Changes in technology and environmental regulations have reduced the potential environmental impacts of these industries. Heavy manufacturing industries provide benefits, such as relatively high wage scales and the potential for generating secondary manufacturing activities. Both expansion of existing businesses through use of local capital and entrepreneurial skills and the attraction of new employers offer realistic opportunities for economic development. The healthful environment of the metropolitan area can help attract industrial development, hold workers, and attract convention- and tourist-related economic activities. The concern for clean air and water is high priority with area residents. The provision of adequate public facilities and services is necessary for economic development. There are presently inefficiently used resources in the metropolitan area, including land, labor, and secondary waste products. Major employment areas include the Eugene and Springfield central business districts, the University of Oregon area, Sacred Heart Hospital, the west Eugene industrial area, the north (Gateway) and south Springfield industrial areas, the Highway 99N industrial area, Country Club Road, Chad Drive, and the Mohawk- N orthgate area. The metropolitan economy is made up of a number of interrelated and important elements, one of which is construction and construction-related activities. Construction, for example, is essential for all sectors of the economy, as well as for the provision of an adequate supply of affordable housing. The mixture of commercial and office uses with industrial uses can reduce or enhance the utility of industrial areas for industrial purposes, depending upon circumstances. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. Attachment 2, page 16 Economic Development Objectives October 15, 2008 Page 17 and Implementation Strategies Uncontrolled mixing creates problems of compatibility and traffic congestion, and may limit the area available for industrial development. Limited mixing, subject to clear and objective criteria designed to minimize or eliminate incompatibility, traffic problems, and which preserve the area for its primary purpose, can make an industrial area more pleasant, convenient, economical, and attractive as a place to work or locate. 15. Campus industrial firms prefer city services. 16. Campus industrial firms have varied site location requirements, prefer alternative sites to choose from, and usually benefit from location of other special light industrial firms within the community and within the same industrial development. Objectives 1. Improve the level, stability, and distribution of per-capita income for metropolitan residents. 2. Reduce unemployment in the resident labor force, especially chronic long-term unemployment. 3. Encourage local residents to develop skills and other educational attributes that would enable them to obtain existing jobs. 4. Promote industrial and commercial development with local capital, entrepreneurial skills, and experience of the resident labor force, as well as with new light manufacturing companies from outside the metropolitan area. 5. Supply an adequate amount of land within the urban growth boundary to accommodate: the diversifying manufacturing sector (especially low polluting, energy-efficient manufacturing uses): and (b) the expansion of the metropolitan area as a regional distribution, trade, and service center. 6. Maintain strong central business districts to provide for office-based commercial, governmental, and specialized or large-scale retail activities. 7. Ensure compatibility between industrial lands and adjacent areas. 8. Reserve enough remaining large parcels for special developments requiring large lots. 9. Increase the potential for convention- and tourist-related economic activities. 10. Provide the necessary public facilities and services to allow economic development. 11. Attempt to find ways to more effectively use inefficiently used resources such as land, labor, and secondary waste products. 12. Provide for limited mixing of office, commercial, and industrial uses subject to clear, objective criteria which: (a) do not materially reduce the suitability of industrial, office, or commercial areas for their primary use; (b) assure compatibility; and ( c) consider the potential for increased traffic congestion. Policies B.l B.2 Demonstrate a positive interest in existing and new industries, especially those providing above average wage and salary levels, an increased variety of job opportunities, a rise in the standard of living, and utilization of our existing comparative advantage in the level of education and skill of the resident labor force. Encourage economic development, which utilizes local and imported capital, entrepreneurial skills, and the resident labor force. Encourage local residents to develop job skills and other educational attributes that will enable them to fill existing job opportunities. B.3 Attachment 2, page 17 Economic Development Objectives October 15, 2008 Page 18 and Implementation Strategies B.4 Encourage the continuance of career preparation and employment orientation for metropolitan area residents by the community's educational institutions, labor unions, businesses, and industry. B.5 Provide existing industrial activities sufficient adjacent land for future expansion. B.6 Increase the amount of undeveloped land zoned for light industrial and commercial uses correlating the effective supply in terms of suitability and availability with the projections of demand. B.7 Encourage industrial park development, including areas for warehousing and distributive industries and research and development activities. B.8 Encourage the improvement of the appearance of existing industrial areas, as well as their ability to serve the needs of existing and potential light industrial development. B.9 Encourage the expansion of existing and the location of new manufacturing activities, which are characterized by low levels of pollution and efficient energy use. B.IO Encourage opportunities for a variety of heavy industrial development in Oregon's second largest metropolitan area. B.ll Encourage economic activities, which strengthen the metropolitan area's position as a regional distribution, trade, health, and service center. B.I2 Discourage future Metro Plan amendments that would change development-ready industrial lands (sites defined as short-term in the metropolitan Industrial Lands Special Study, 1991) to non-industrial designations. B.13 Continue to encourage the development of convention and tourist-related facilities. B.14 Continue efforts to keep the Eugene and Springfield central business districts as vital centers of the metropolitan area. B.15 Encourage compatibility between industrially zoned lands and adjacent areas in local planning programs. B.I6 Utilize processes and local controls, which encourage retention of large parcels or consolidation of small parcels of industrially or commercially zoned land to facilitate their use or reuse in a comprehensive rather than piecemeal fashion. B.I7 Improve land availability for industries dependent on rail access. B.I8 Encourage the development of transportation facilities which would improve access to industrial and commercial areas and improve freight movement capabilities by implementing the policies and projects in the Eugene-Springfield Metropolitan Area Transportation Plan (TransPlan) and the Eugene Airport Master Plan. B.19 Local jurisdictions will encourage the allocation of funds to improve transportation access to key industrial sites or areas through capital budgets and priorities. B.20 Encourage research and development of products and markets resulting in more efficient use of underutilized, renewable, and nonrenewable resources, including wood waste, recyclable materials, and solar energy. B.21 Reserve several areas within the UGB for large-scale, campus-type, light manufacturing uses. (See Metro Plan Diagram for locations so designated.) B.22 Review local ordinances and revise them to promote greater flexibility for promoting appropriate commercial development in residential neighborhoods. B.23 Provide for limited mixing of office, commercial, and industrial uses under procedures which clearly define the conditions under which such uses shall be permitted and which: (a) preserve the suitability of the affected areas for their primary uses; (b) assure compatibility; and (c) consider the potential for increased traffic congestion. Attachment 2, page 18 Economic Development Objectives October 15, 2008 Page 19 and Implementation Strategies B.24 Continue to evaluate other sites in and around Springfield and Eugene for potential light-medium industrial and special light industrial uses, as well as potential residential uses. B.25 Pursue an aggressive annexation program and servicing of designated industrial lands in order to have a sufficient supply of "development ready" land. B.26 In order to provide locational choice and to attract new campus industrial firms to the metropolitan area, Eugene and Springfield shall place as a high priority service extension, annexation, and proper zoning of all designated special light industrial sites. B.27 Eugene, Springfield, and Lane County shall improve monitoring of economic development and trends and shall cooperate in studying and protecting other potential industrial lands outside the urban boundary. B.28 Recognize the vital role of neighborhood commercial facilities in providing services and goods to a particular neighborhood. B.29 Encourage the expansion or redevelopment of existing neighborhood commercial facilities as surrounding residential densities increase or as the characteristics of the support population change. B.30 Industrial land uses abutting the large aggregate extraction ponds north of High Banks Road in Springfield shall demonstrate that they require the location next to water to facilitate the manufacture of testing of products made on-site. Attachment 2, page 19