HomeMy WebLinkAboutResolution 09-54 12/07/2009
RESOLUTION NO. 09-54
A RESOLUTION OF THE COMMON COUNCIL OF THE CITY OF SPRINGFIELD
ADOPTING THE 2009 PRELIMINARY SPRINGFIELD RESIDENTIAL LAND AND
HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS, FULFILLING ITS STATUTORY OBLIGATION TO
"COMPLETE" THE PRELIMINARY INVENTORY, ANALYSIS AND
DETERMINATION BEFORE JANUARY l, 2010.
WHEREAS, in 2007 the Oregon Legislature passed and the Governor signed into
law 2007 Or Laws Chapter 650, codified as ORS 197.304 and commonly known as
"House Bill 3337; and
WHEREAS, HB 3337, as codified, provides as follows:
197.304 Lane County accommodation of needed housing. (1) Notwithstanding
an intergovernmental agreement pursuant to ORS 190.003 to 190.130 or acknowledged
comprehensive plan provisions to the contrary, a city within Lane County that has a
population of 50,000 or more within its boundaries shall meet its obligation under ORS
197.295 to 197.3l4 separately from any other city within Lane County. The city shall,
separately from any other city:
(a) Establish an urban growth boundary, consistent with the jurisdictional area of
responsibility specified in the acknowledged comprehensive plan; and
(b) Demonstrate, as required by ORS 197.296, that its comprehensive plan
provides sufficient buildable lands within an urban growth boundary established pursuant
to statewide planning goals to accommodate estimated housing needs for 20 years.
(2) Except as provided in subsection (l) of this section, this section does not alter
or affect an intergovernmental agreement pursuant to ORS 190.003 to 190.130 or
acknowledged comprehensive plan provisions adopted by Lane County or local
governments in Lane County. [2007 c.650 S2]
Note: Section 3, chapter 650, Oregon Laws 2007, provides:
Sec. 3. A local government that is subject to section 2 ofthis 2007 Act [l97.304]
shall complete the inventory, analysis and determination required under ORS 197.296 (3)
to begin compliance with section 2 of this 2007 Act within two years after the effective
date of this 2007 Act [January l, 2008],[2007 c.650 S3]; and
WHEREAS, the "inventory, analysis, and determination required under ORS
197.296(3)" is a preliminary determination of capacity; and
WHEREAS, the inventory, analysis, and determination required by ORS
197.296(3) is based upon recent trends; and
WHEREAS, the remaining steps required by HB 3337 and ORS 196.296 and
state land use goals require consideration of a variety of legal, policy, and factual issues
before adoption of a final inventory, analysis, and determination of capacity; and
WHEREAS, formal adoption ofthe preliminary inventory, analysis, and
determination" by a resolution recognizing the nonfinal nature of this preliminary step
meets the express requirement ofHB 3337 that the city "complete" this step by January l,
20l0;and
WHEREAS, the Springfield City Council had previously directed staff to begin a
20-year residential lands study pursuant to ORS 197.296 in December, 2005; and
WHEREAS, to complete the preliminary inventory, analysis, and determination
required by HB 3337, the City of Springfield commissioned ECONorthwest to prepare a
Residential Land and Housing Needs Analysis outlining Springfield's housing needs for
the next 20 years; and
WHEREAS, Springfield has conducted the Residential Lands Study planning
process to date in a manner consistent with Statewide Planning Goals 1 and 2, and
evidence of the citizen involvement and intergovernmental coordination processes thus
far is fully documented in the public record: application file number LRP2007-00030;
and
WHEREAS, timely and sufficient notice of the public hearing, pursuant to
Springfield Development Code Section 5.2-115, has been provided; and
WHEREAS, on October 20,2009, a public hearing on the Springfield Residential
Land and Housing Needs Analysis was held before the City of Springfield Planning
Commission and the Development Services Department staff report, the oral testimony,
letters received, written submittals of the persons testifying at the hearing, and the public
record for file # LRP2007-00030 have been considered and hereby are incorporated into
the record for this proceeding.
WHEREAS, on October 20,2009, the City of Springfield Planning Commission
made a recommendation to the City Council to approve the determination set forth in the
Springfield Residential Land and Housing Needs Analysis; and
WHEREAS, the Springfield Residential Land and Housing Needs Analysis is
consistent with ORS 197.296(3) as described in the attached staff report; and
WHEREAS, adoption of the initial stage housing needs determination does not
include adoption or amendment of an urban growth boundary or the adoption or
amendment of any comprehensive plan policies or designations; and
WHEREAS, adoption ofthe final 2030 Springfield Residential Land and
Housing Needs Analysis will occur when the Springfield City Council and the Lane
County Board of Commissioners adopt the Springfield 2030 Refinement Plan, a
refinement plan of the Eugene-Springfield Metro Plan.
RESOLUTION NO. 09-54
NOW THEREFORE BE IT RESOLVED, that the Common Council of the
City of Springfield hereby declares its intention as follows:
Section 1: The Common Council of the City of Springfield provisionally adopts,
subject to further public input, refinement, correction, and revision, pending completion
ofthe HB 3337 process, the determinations set forth in the Springfield Residential Land
and Housing Needs Analysis, as submitted and revised in the course of these proceedings
presented herein at (Case No. LRP 2007-00030), and attached hereto as Exhibit "A."
(Revision date December l, 2009).
ADOPTED by the Common Council and approved by the Mayor of the City of
Springfield, Oregon, this ~ th day of Decembe ,2Q09. by te of 6 for and 0 against.
ATTEST~)ntnL-
REVIEWED & APPROVED
Affi~
DATE: I
OFFICE OF CITY ATTORNEY
RESOLUTION NO. 09-54
Exhibit A-1
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Springfield Residential
Land and Housing Needs
Analysis
Prepared for
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City of Springfield
by
ECONorthwest
99 W. Tenth, Suite 400
Eugene, OR 97401
(541) 687-0051
Draft Report
December 2009
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Attachment 1-1
Exhibit A-2
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Written by:
Robert Parker, Project Director
Beth Goodman, Project Manager
Whit Perkins, Research Assistant .
Date submitted: December 2009
ECO Project Number 7139
ECONorthwest
99 W Tenth, Suite 400
Eugene, OR 97401
(541) 687-0051
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Attachment 1-2
Exhibit A-3
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Table of Contents
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Page
EXECUTIVE SU M MARy.......................................................................................................................... I
CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................ 1
BACKG ROU N D ................................................................................................................................... 1
PURPOSE ........................................................................................................................................... 2
ORGAN IZA TI ON ................................................................................................................................. 3
CHAPTER 2: FRAMEWORK FOR A HOUSING NEEDS ANALySiS.............................................................. 4
OREGON HOUSI N G POll CY ................................................................................................................ 4
CHAPTER 3: RESIDENTIAL LAND INVENTORY9
METHODS, DEFINITIONS, AND ASSUMPTIONS ................................................................................... 9
RESUL TS........................................................................................................................................... 12
La nd base..................................... ............. .... ...................................................................... 12
Vaca nt bu ilda ble la nd .................................................. ......................................... ............... l5
Redevelopment potentia I.......................... ................ ................. .............................. ............ 18
Residential capacity................... ........................................ ............................ ...................... 18
CHAPTER 4: HISTORICAL DEVELOPMENT TRENDS............................................................................... 20
RESI DENTIALDEVELOPM ENT TREN OS .............................................................................................. 20
TRENDS IN HOUSING MIX AND TENURE ........................................................................................... 23
DENSITY. ......................... .'......... ........................... .............................. ......................:................. ...... 2S
CHAPTER S: HOUSING DEMAND AND NEED ....................................................................................... 27
STEP 1: PROJECT NUMBER OF NEW HOUSING UNITS NEEDED IN THE NEXT 20 YEARS .................. 27
Popu lation .................. ..................... ................................ ................................................... 27
Persons in grou p quarters ...................................... .................................... .......................... 28
Household size a nd com position ................. ......... ................ .................... ........ .................... 29
Vacancy rate................ .................................................. .................... ...................... ........... 29
STEP 2: IDENTIFY RELEVANT NATIONAL, STATE, AND LOCAL DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC
TRENDS AND FACTORS THAT MAY AFFECT THE 20-YEAR PROJECTION OF STRUCTURE TYPE MIX.. 31
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Nationa I Housing Trends .............................. .................. ...................................................... 31
STEP 3: DESCRIBE THE DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS OF THE POPULATION AND, IF POSSIBLE,
HOUSING TRENDS THAT RELATE TO DEMAND FOR DIFFERENT TYPES OF HOUSING ..................... 34
Attachment 1-3
Exhibit A-4
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Summary of key demographic and housing trends................................................................. 45
Implications of demographic and housing trends for housing need......................................... 47
Step 4: Determine the types of housing that are likely to be affordable to the projected
popu lation based on household income ............................................... ..................... ............ 49
Step 5: Estimate the number of additional needed units by structure type and tenure ............ 58
Step 6: Determine the needed density range for each plan designation and the average needed
net density for a II designations.......................... ................. .................. ........................... ..... 59
CHAPTER 6: COMPARISON OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND ........................................................................ 63
TOTAL RESIDENTIAL LAN 0 NEED, 2010-2030 .................................................................................... 63
land needed for new residential dwelling units ..................................................................... 63
land needed for other uses............................................ ................................ ...................... 63
BUILDABLE LAND INVENTORY AND CAPACITY ...............................................:.................................. 65
COM P ARISON AN 0 CONCLUSiONS................................................................................................... 66
APPENDIX A: CONTEXT FOR ASSESSING HOUSING NEEDS.................................................................. 68
WHAT IS AFFORDABLE HOUSI NG? .................................................................................................... 68
WHAT OBJECTIVES DO HOUSING POLICIES TYPICALLY TRY TO ACHIEVE? .......................................... 69
DEMAN 0 VERSUS NEED ................................................................................................................... 70
APPEN DIX B: NATIONAL H OUSI NG TREN OS ........................................................................................ 74
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Attachment 1-4
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Exhibit A-5
Executive Summary
The 2007 Oregon Legislature passed HB 3337 which requires Springfield to
establish a separate urban growth boundary (UGB). In response to HB 3337, the
City is conducting this study to evaluate the sufficiency of land available for
residential uses in its UGB. To make this determination, the draft Residential
Lands Study (RLS) presents a housing needs analysis consistent with
requirements ofHB 3337, Goall4, ORS 197.296, and OAR 660-008.
The Springfield Residential Lands Study is intended to provide technical
analysis required to determine the 20-year need for residential land for
Springfield's jurisdictional share of the area subject to the Eugene-Springfield
Metropolitan Area, i.e., the area east ofInterstate 5, and whether the city has
enough capacity within the area east ofI-5 inside the current regional UGB to
meet that need. The Executive Summary provides key findings from the
Springfield Residential Lands Study.
The purpose of the Residential Study is to (1) present growth forecasts, (2)
inventory how much buildable residential land the City has, (3) identify housing
needs, (4) identify land needed for housing and other uses, and (5) determine how
much land the City will need to accommodate growth between 2010 to 2030.
How MUCH GROWTH IS SPRINGFIELD PLANNING FOR?
Population forecasts provide the foundation for assessing land needs.
Springfield must have a population forecast to project expected population change,
over the 20-year planning period (in this instance, 2010-2030). Lane County
adopted coordinated population forecasts for the County and its incorporated
cities in June 2009. The forecasts include figures for Springfield for 2030 and
2035. '
Table S-1 shows the coordinated population forecast for the area within the
current Springfield city limits, the current unincorporated urban area (the area
between the city limit and UGB), and within Springfield's jurisdictional share f
the current Metro Plan UGB for 2010 to 2030. The Springfield UGB forecast for
2030 is 81,608 persons-an increase of 14,577 persons during the 20-year
planning period.
DRAFT: Springfield Housing Needs Analysis
ECONorthwest
December 2009
Page i
Attachment 1-5
Exhibit A-6
Table S-1. Springfield coordinated population
. forecast, Springfield UGB, 2010 to 2030
Urban
Year City Limit Area UGB
2010 58,891 8,140 67,031
2030 74,814 6,794 81,608
Change 2010-2030
Number 15,923 (1,346) 14,577
Percent 27% -17% 22%
AAGR 1,2% -0,9% 1.0%
Source: Lane County Rural Comprehensive Plan, 1984 (Amended in 2009),
Table 1-1, pg 5
How MUCH BUILDABLE RESIDENTIAL LAND DOES SPRINGFIELD CURRENTLY
HAVE?
Springfield has 2,485 acres in tax lots that are designated for residential uses.
Of these, about 1,447 acres within the Urban Growth Boundary (UGB) are
considered vacant and buildable. Table S-2 shows vacant land by plan
designation.
Table S-2. Vacant residential land by plan designation, Springfield
UGB, 2008
. Total Acres Developed Constrained Buildable
Plan Designation Tax Lots in Tax Lots Acres Acres Acres
Low Density Residential 981 2,137 71 765 1,301
Medium Density Residentia 126 329 142 58 128
High Density Residential 8 19 1 0 18
Total 1,115 2,485 214 824 1,447
Source: City of Springfield GIS data; analysis by ECONorthwest
The purpose of the residential buildable lands inventory is to estimate the
capacity of buildable land in dwelling units. The capacity of residential land is
measured in dwelling units and is dependent on densities allowed in specific
zones as well as redevelopment potential. In short, land capacity is a function of
buildable land and density.
The buildable lands inventory indicates that Springfield has about 1,447 acres
of vacant and partially-vacant residential land and an additional 21 acres in the
Glenwood mixed-use refinement plan area (these acres were included in the
commercial and industrial lands inventory and are included here only for the
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ECONorthwest
December 2009
DRAFT: Springfield Housing Needs Analysis
Attachment 1-6
Exhibit A-7
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purpose of estimating residential capacity).l This yields a total of 1,468 buildable
acres.
Table S-3 provides an estimate of how much housing could be accommodated
by those lands based on needed densities after making deductions for
development constraints. It includes capacity for areas with approved master
plans that were not included in the acreage estimates. This includes Marcola
Meadows (518 dwellings in the MDR designation) and RiverBend (730 dwellings
in the MDR designation). Additionally, the housing needs analysis assumes that
5% of new housing (299 dwelling units) will be a result of redevelopment. Table
S-3 shows that Springfield has capacity for 9,021 dwelling units within the
existing UGB.
Table S-3. Estimated residential development capacity,
Springfield UGB, 2009
Plan Designation
Low Density Residential
Medium Density Residential
High Density Residential
Mixed-Use (Glenwood)
Rede\.elopment
Total
Buildable
Acres
824
95
16
21
Residential
Capacity
(OU)
5,379
2,718
355
270
299
9,021
Percent
of
Capacity
60%
30%
4%
3%
3%
100%
na
956
.
Source: City of Springfield residential BLI; analysis by ECONorthwest
Note: Estimated residential development capacity includes sites with
approved master plans (RiverBend - 730 DU and Marcola Meadows - 518 DU,
All of this capacity is in the Medium Density Residential plan designation),
How MUCH HOUSING WILL THE CITY NEED?
Springfield will need to provide about 5,980 new dwelling units to
accommodate growth between 2010 and 2030. About 3,588 dwelling units (60%)
will be single-family types, which includes single-family detached, manufactured
dwellings, and single-family attached housing. About 2,392 units (40%) will be
multi-family housing.
How MUCH LAND WILL BE REQUIRED FOR HOUSING?
Table S-4 shows the capacity for residential development by plan designation
both before and after subtracting acreage needed for other uses, such as parks,
schools, churches, etc.). ECO estimates Springfield will need 463 acres for other
uses during the 2010-2030 period.
The results lead to the following findings:
1 Capacity in the Glenwood mixed-use area was calculated as follows: 21 buildable acres (45% of the 47-acre site; the policy requires 30%
to 60% of the site be used for housing) multiplied by 15 dwelling units per gross acre equals 317 dwelling units, minus 47 dwelling units
that would be displaced'from the River Bank Mobile Home Park equals 270 dwelling units.
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DRAFT: Springfield Housing Needs Analysis
ECONorthwest
December 2009
Page iii
Attachment 1-7
Exhibit A-8
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. Springfield has an overall surplus of residential land. The Springfield
UGB has enough land for 9,021 new dwelling units including
redevelopment capacity without taking into account the need for 463 acres
of this land for other uses. The housing needs forecast projects a need for
5,980 dwelling units and 145 group quarter dwellings.
. The Low Density Residential designation has a surplus of approximately
72 gross acres.
· The Medium Density Residential designation has a surplus of
approximately 18 gross acres.
· The High Density Residential designation has a deficit of approximately
34 gross acres.
· The total residential land surplus is 59 gross acres.
Table 6-4. Residential capacity for needed dwelling units by plan designation,
Springfield UGB, 2010-2030
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 ' 9
Housing Housing Total
land Surplusl Surplusl
Surplusl Needed Need Deficit Other Deficit
Need Capacity Deficit Density (Gross (Gross Residential (Gross
Plan Designation (DU) (DU) (DU) (DUlGRA) Acres) Ac) land Need Ac)
. Low Density Residential 3,468 5,379 1,911 5 -422 422 347 75
Medium Density Residential 1,794 3,137 1,343 12 0 111 93 18
High Density Residential 718 505 -213 20 11 -11 23 -34
Total 5,980 9,021 3,041 0 411 522 463 59
Source: ECONorthwest
Column Notes:
1, Plan designations
2, Needed dwellings by plan designation (table 5-30)
3, Capacity by plan designation (table 6-2); Note: MDR capacity includes capacity in master planned areas
(Glenwood, Marcola Meadows, Riverbend); redevelopment capacity is included in MDR (150 DU) and HDR (150 DU)
4, Capacity (column 3) minus Need (column 2); Note: a positive number denotes enough capacity within the existing
UGB
5, Needed Gross Density (from bottom of page 5)
6, Total additional land needed (if a deficit exists), Equals -column 4 divided by column 5
7, Surplus/deficit gross acres, Equals Column 4 divided by Column 5
8, Other residential land need (land needed for parks, etc)
9, Total surplus/deficit. Equals column 7 minus column 8,
Note: Total Surplus/Deficit (column 9) adds to 344 acres due to rounding errors,
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ECONorthwest
December 2009
DRAFT: Springfield Housing Needs Analysis
Attachment 1-8
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Exhibit A-9
Chapter 1
Introduction
This report presents a housing needs analysis for the City of Springfield. The
primary purpose of this report is to address the requirement ofRB. 3337 that
Springfield "demonstrate, as required by ORS 197.296, that its comprehensive
plan provides sufficient 'buildable lands within an urban growth boundary
established pursuant to statewide planning goals to accommodate estimated
housing needs for 20 years." The study is intended to comply with statewide
planning policies that govern housing, including Goal 10 (Housing), ORS
197.296, and OAR 660 Division 8.
The primary goals of this study are to (1) project the amount ofland needed to
accommodate the city's future housing needs of all types, and (2) evaluate the
existing residential land supply within the Springfield Urban Growth Boundary to
determine if it is adequate to meet that need. The methods used for this study
generally follow the Planning for Residential Growth guidebook, published by
the Oregon Transportation and Growth Management Program (1996).
BACKGROUND
The City of Springfield has not conducted a housing needs analysis since the
Eugene-Springfield Residential Lands and Housing Study was completed in 1999.
In the six years since the study was completed, Springfield's population has
increased by nearly 3,000 residents, an increase of more than 5% over the six-year
period.
In 2007, the Oregon State Legislature passed House Bill 3337 which requires
Springfield to:
(a) Establish an urban growth boundary, consistent with the jurisdictional area
of responsibility specified in the acknowledged comprehensive plan; and
(b) Demonstrate, as required by ORS 197.296, that its comprehensive plan
provides sufficient buildable lands within an urban growth boundary
established pursuant to statewide planning goals to accommodate estimated
housing needs for 20 years.
The analysis and determination of land sufficiency required under section (b)
must be completed by December 31,2009. This study is intended to meet the
requirements of section (b) by determining whether the City has sufficient land
within the Springfield Urban Growth Boundary (UGB) to accommodate expected
future housing needs. To make this determination, this report presents a housing
needs analysis consistent with requirements of Goall4, ORS 197.296, and OAR
660-008. As required by HB 3337, the City intends to "complete the inventory,
analysis and determination required under ORS 197.296(3)" before the end of
2009, and to complete the remainder of its obligations under HB 3337 and ORS
DRAFT: Springfield Housing Needs Analysis
ECONorthwest
December 2009
Page 1
Attachment 1-9
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Exhibit A-10
197.296 early in 2010. Consistent with the requirements ofORS 197.296(2) the
planning period for this study is 2010-2030.
PURPOSE
The purpose of this study is to provide an assessment of residential
development capacity and demand for residential land. The study will serve two
purposes: (1) to inform policy makers about planning options and (2) to fulfill state
planning requirements for a twenty-year supply of residential land. Consistent with
the requirements of ORS 197.296, communities engaged in a buildable lands
analysis and housing need assessment must complete, in part, the following:
. Inventory the supply of buildable lands within the current urban growth
boundary;
. Determine the actual density and the actual mix of housing types of
residential development that have occurred within the urban growth
boundary since the last periodic review or five years, whichever is greater.
Development activity used for this review was between 1999 and June
2008.2
. Conduct an analysis of housing need by type and density range, in
accordance with ORS 197.303 and statewide planning goals and rules
related to housing, to determine the amount of land needed for each
needed housing type for the next 20 years (2010-2030).
This report presents an analysis consistent with the above outlined
requirements, and draws upon previous work that ECON orthwest for a number of
Oregon cities and regions. The report is intended to serve as the basis for
subsequent discussions and policy choices regarding the management of growth
in Springfield and to enable the city to complete the residential lands inventory,
analysis and determination required by ORS 197.296(3) and Section 3 of 2007 Or
Laws Chapter 650 (HB 3337). It does not address land use efficiency measures as
required by ORS 197.296 and OAR 660-024. Land use efficiency measures will
be addressed through a separate process.
In general, a housing needs analysis contains a supply analysis (existing
housing, planned housing, and buildable land) and a demand analysis (population
and employment growth leading to demand for more built space: housing by type
and density). The geographic scope of the housing needs analysis is all land inside
the current acknowledged Eugene-Springfield Metropolitan Urban Growth
Boundary east of Interstate 5.
2 The City uses the 1999-2006 period for analysis due to limited availability of penn it data that can be cross-referenced to tax lot data to
develop density estimates. Moreover, the 1990 and 2000 Census provides an accurate source for analysis of housing mix trends during the
1990s.
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December 2009
DRAFT: Springfield Housing Needs Analysis
ECONorthwest
Attachment 1-10
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Exhibit A-11
ORGANIZATION
The rest of this report is organized as follows:
. Chapter 2, Framework For A Housing Needs Analysis, describes the
theoretical and policy underpinnings of conducting a Goal lO housing
needs analysis for Oregon cities.
. Chapter 3, Residential Land Inventory, describes the supply of
residential land available to meet the 20-year need for housing.
· Chapter 4, Historical Development Trends, summarizes building permit
and subdivision data to evaluate residential development by density and
mix for the period beginning September I, 1988, through June 30, 2000.
. Chapter 5, Housing Needs Analysis, presents a housing needs analysis
consistent with HB 2709 requirements and the HB 2709 Workbook.
· Chapter 6, Comparison of Supply and Need, compares buildable land
supply with estimated housing need.
The report also includes two appendices:
· Appendix A, Context for Assessing Housing Needs provides an
overview of planning for housing and typical local policy objectives
related to affordable housing.
. Appendix B, National and Regional Housing Trends presents research
ECO has performed over the course of several years describing key factors
affecting housing at the national and regional level.
DRAFT: Springfield Housing Needs Analysis
ECONorthwest
December 2009
Page 3
Attachment 1-11
Exhibit A-12
Chapter 2
Framework for a
Housing Needs Analysis3
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Economists view housing as a bundle of services for which people are willing
to pay: shelter certainly, but also proximity to other attractions Gob, shopping,
recreation), amenity (type and quality of fixtures and appliances, landscaping,
views), prestige, and access to public services (quality of schools). Because it is
impossible to maximize all these services and simultaneously minimize costs,
households must, and do, make tradeoffs. What they can get for their money is
influenced by both economic forces and government policy. Moreover, different
households will value what they can get differently. They will have different
preferences, which in turn are a function of many factors like income, age of
household head, number of people and children in the household, number of
workers and job locations, number of automobiles, and so on.
Thus, housing choices of individual households are influenced in complex
ways by dozens of factors; and the housing market in Lane County and '
Springfield are the result of the individual decisions of thousands of households.
These points help to underscore the complexity of projecting what types of
housing will be built between 2010 and 2030.
.
The complexity of a housing market is a reality, but it does not obviate the
need for some type of forecast of future housing demand and need, and its
implications for land demand and consumption. Such forecasts are inherently
uncertain. Their usefulness for public policy often derives more from the
explanation of their underlying assumptions about the dynamics of markets and
policies than from the specific estimates of future demand and need. Thus, we
start our housing analysis with a framework for thinking about housing and
residential markets, and how public policy affects those markets.
OREGON HOUSING POLICY
The passage of the Oregon Land Use Planning Act of 1974 (ORS Chapter
197), established the Land Conservation and Development Commission (LCDC),
and the Department of Land Conservation and Development (DLCD). The Act
required the Commission to develop and adopt a set of statewide planning goals.
Goal 10 addresses housing in Oregon and provides guidelines for local
governments to follow in developing their local comprehensive land use plans and
implementing policies.
At a minimum, local housing policies must meet the requirements of Goal 10
(ORS 197.295 to 197.3l4, ORS 197.475 to 197.490, and OAR 600-008). Goal 10
requires incorporated cities to complete an inventory of buildable residential lands
.
3 This chapter is based on studies ECONorthwest has completed for other Oregon cities and regions.
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ECONorthwest
December 2009
DRAFT: Springfield Housing Needs Analysis
Attachment 1-12
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Exhibit A-13
and to encourage the availability of adequate numbers of housing units in price
and rent ranges commensurate with the financial capabilities of its households.
Goal 10 defines needed housing types as "housing types determined to meet
the need shown for housing within an urban growth boundary at particular price
ranges and rent levels." ORS 197.303 defines needed housing types:
(a) Housing that includes, but is not limited to, attached and detached single-
family housing and multiple family housing for both owner and renter
occupancy;
(b) Government assisted housing;'
(c) Mobile home or manufactured dwelling parks as provided in ORS 197.475
to 197.490; and
(d) Manufactured homes on individual lots planned and zoned for single-
family residential use that are in addition to lots within designated
manufactured dwelling subdivisions.
ORS 197.296 defines factors to establish sufficiency of buildable lands within
urban growth boundary and requires analysis and determination of residential
housing patterns. It applies to cities with populations of25,000 or more and
requires cities to:
. Demonstrate that its comprehensive plan or regional plan provides
sufficient buildable lands within the urban growth boundary established
pursuant to statewide planning goals to accommodate estimated housing
needs for 20 years (ORS 197.296(2));
· Inventory the supply of buildable lands within the urban growth boundary
and determine the housing capacity of the buildable lands (ORS
197.296(3)(a)); and
· Conduct an analysis of housing need by type and density range to
determine the number of units and amount of land needed for each needed
housing type for the next 20 years (197 .296(3)(b )).
ORS 197.296 also defines a process for cities to following when considering
UGB expansions to meet identified residential needs. ORS 197.296(6) requires
cities to take one or more of the following actions if the housing need is greater
than the housing capacity to accommodate the additional housing need:
a. Amend its urban growth boundary to include sufficient buildable lands to
accommodate housing needs for the next 20 years. As part of this process,
'Government assisted housing can be any housing type listed in ORS 197.303 (a), (c), or (d).
DRAFT: Springfield Housing Needs Analysis
ECONorthwest
December 2009
Page 5
Attachment 1-13
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Exhibit A-14
the local government must consider the effects of "land use efficiency
measures." The amendment must include sufficient land reasonably
necessary to accommodate the siting of new public school facilities;
b. Amend its comprehensive plan, regional plan, functional plan or land use
regulations to include new measures that demonstrably increase the
likelihood that residential development will occur at densities sufficient to
accommodate housing needs for the next 20 years without expansion of
the urban growth boundary; or
c. Adopt a combination of the actions described in paragraphs (a) and (b) of
this subsection.
ORS 197.296 is also explicit about what must be considered in a housing
needs analysis and the buildable lands inventory. For the purpose of the inventory,
"buildable lands" includes:
(A) Vacant lands planned or zoned for residential use;
(B) Partially vacant lands planned or zoned for residential use;
(C) Lands that may be used for a mix of residential and employment uses
under the existing planning or zoning; and
(D) Lands that may be used for residential infill or redevelopment.
To visually display the buildable lands inventory, the inventory includes a
map that identifies lands that are vacant, partially vacant, or designated for mixed-
use development.
The needs analysis includes an analysis of historical housing density and mix.
This analysis, which must include data in the last periodic review or five years,
whichever is greater.5
(A) The number, density and average mix of housing types of urban
residential development that have actually occurred;
(B) Trends in density and average mix of housing types of urban residential
development;
(C) Demographic and population trends;
(D) Economic trends and cycles; and
5 A local government can make a determination to use a shorter time period than the time period described if the local government finds
that the shorter time period will provide more accurate and reliable data related to housing capacity and need, The shorter time period may
not be less than three years,
Page 6
DRAFT: Springfield Housing Needs Analysis
ECONorthwest
December 2009
Attachment 1-14
.
.
.
Exhibit A-15
(E) The number, density and average mix of housing types that have occurred
on the buildable lands.
Figure 2-1 provides a graphic representation of the housing needs analysis
process as defined in ORS 197.296.
DRAFT: Springfield Housing Needs Analysis
ECONorthwest
December 2009
Page 7
Attachment 1-15
.
.
Exhibit A.
Figure 2-1. Process for determining the sufficiency of residential lands
I Land Supply I I Land Demand I I Land SupplylDemand Analysis
II
Actions Related to UGB
No UGB expansion
required,
..
I Yes I
I Priority 1
Amend plan/regulations to
... Does UGB contain include new measures that
enough buildable land increase likelihood that
Conduct housing needs analysis, needed at actual residential densities will occur at
Inventory supply of ORS 197,296(3)(c) and ORS 197,296(7) residential densities? densities sufficient to
ORS 197,296(4) accommodate housing needs
buildable' residential lands .. for the next 20 years without
within the UGB:2 Use population forecast from . , expansion of the UGB,
_Determine 20-year supply coordinating body. ORS
of buildable lands for 195,036
housing, Priority 2
ORS 197,296(2) and I I Adopt a combination of Priorities
197,296(3)(a) Is needed density the same as or less than No 1 and 3,
II actual density? Is needed mix the same as
actual mix? ORS 197.296(5)
Determine actual I Priority 3
density/mix of housing Yes to I No I Amend the UGB to include
ORS 197,296(3)(b) both y sufficient buildable lands to
.. Identify and evaluate ~ Yes I accommodate housing needs,.
measures to increase Do the measures for Take
No measures likelihood that needed needed housing forego ~ one of
for housing residential development the need to expand the several
needed, will occur, UGB? l No actions:
ORS 197.296(6) and (7)
Footnotes:
1 Buildable lands means vacant and
redevelop-able lands in urban and
urbanizable areas that are suitable,
available and necessary for
residential uses, ORS 197.295(2)
2 Goal 14 requires UGB
amendments to be adopted
by City and County County,
OAR 660-015-0000(14)
Page 8
ECONorthwest
December 2009
DRAFT: Springfield Housing Needs Analysis
Attachment 1-16
.
.
.
Exhibit A-17
Chapter 3
Residential
Land Inventory
The residential lands inventory is intended to identify lands that are available
for development within the UGE. The inventory is sometimes characterized as
supply of land to accommodate growth. Population and employment growth drive
demand for land. The amount of land needed depends on the density of
development.
This chapter presents the residential buildable lands inventory for the City of
Springfield. 6 The results are based on analysis of Geographic Information System
data provided by City of Springfield GIS and Lane County Assessment data. The
analysis also used aerial orthophotographs for verification.
METHODS, DEFINITIONS, AND ASSUMPTIONS
The first step of the residential buildable lands inventory was to identify the
"land base." The land base includes all lands in the Springfield portion of the
Metro UGB that are either fully or partially within a residential plan designation.
The following plan designations were included in the residential land base:
. High Density Residential
. Medium Density Residential
. Low Density Residential
The foundational assumptions for the residential lands inventory were
reviewed and discussed by the ResidentialLands Stakeholder Committee. The
committee recommended a package of definitions and assumptions for use in the
residential land inventory. These were reviewed with the Planning Commission
and Council and approved for use in the study. The draft acreages presented in
this chapter utilize the definitions and assumptions and also incorporate more
detailed information from the Lane County Assessor's Office to determine the
character of the parcels.
Property Class and Stat Class codes from the Lane County Assessor's Office
were used to help determine if a property is vacant and what type of structure (if
any) is present on the land. Property Class is a three digit code to define the
current use of the land (residential, commercial, industrial, multi-family, etc) and
whether is vacant or developed. Stat Class is also a three digit code used by the
Assessor's Office to describe the type of structure on a parcel (single-family
home, multi-family structure, agricultural outbuilding, etc.). Aerial Photos were
6 The residential buildable lands inventory was a collaborative effort between City of Springfield staff and
ECON orthwest.
DRAFT: Springfield Housing Needs Analysis
ECONorthwest
December 2009
Page 9
Attachment 1-17
Exhibit A-18
.
also used in some cases to help determine presence and extent of development on
a site if other information was not clear.
A key step in the buildable lands analysis was to classify each tax lot into a set
of mutually exclusive categories. All tax lots in the UGB are classified into one of
the following categories:
. Vacant and Partially Vacant Land. This category includes parcels with no
structures or with structures with a value of less than $l 0,000; parcels
have not been precluded from development by a CUP or other
commitment.
. Unbuildable, Not Serviceable Land. This category includes land that is
undevelopable. It includes tax lots or areas within tax lots with one or
more ofthe following attributes: (1) slopes greater than 25%; (2) within
the floodway; (3) in areas with severe landslide potential (DOGAMI map);
(4) within wetlands and riparian corridors and setbacks; (5) with an
easement a 230KV transmission line; (6) small irregularly shaped lots; and
(7) publicly owned land.
· Developed land. Land that is developed at densities consistent with zoning
and improvements that make it unlikely to redevelop during the analysis
period. Lands not classified as vacant, partially-vacant, or undevelopable
are considered qeveloped.
.
· Potentially redevelopable land. Land on which development has already
occurred but on which, due to present or expected market forces, there
exists the potential that existing development will be converted to more
intensive uses during the planning period. Redevelopable land is a subset
of developed land and includes lands in MDR and HDR plan designations
that have single-family dwellings.
The initial classifications, while not perfect, provided a starting point. The
initial classification was used to help City staff to define a list of parcels that meet
the assumptions and criteria in the definitions listed below. The next step in the
process was verification. City staff and ECONorthwest spent considerable effort
to review and verify land classifications. Verification steps included review of
classifications on top of 2008 aerial photographs, cross referencing data with
LCOG land use data, and in selected instances, field verification.
The land classifications result in identification of lands that are vacant or
partially vacant. The inventory includes all lands within the Springfield UGH.
Public and semi-public lands are generally considered unavailable for
development. Map 3-l shows residential lands by plan designation within the
Springfield UGB.
.
Page 10
ECONorthwest
December 2009
DRAFT: Springfield Housing Needs Analysis
Attachment 1-18
.
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-Resioenfial-Lan a-fiy
Plan Designation
City of Springfield
Oregon
Legend
D City Limits
D Urban Growth Boundary
Plan Designation
_ High Density Residential
I I Low Density Residential
Medium Density Res Mixed
Medium Density Residential
N
.
.
.
.
Exhibit A-20
RESULTS
LAND BASE
The first step in the residential land inventory was to determine the land base.
This step was necessary because the inventory only covers a subset of land in the
. Springfield UGB. The land base is the subset of tax lots that fall within the plan
designations included in the residential portion of the inventory.
Table 3-1 shows acres within the Springfield UGB and city limits in 2008.
According to the City GIS data, Springfield has about] 4,603 acres within its
UGB. Of the 14,603 acres, 12,139 acres (about 83%) are in tax lots. Land not in
tax lots is primarily in streets and waterways. Springfield has about 9,958 acres
within its City Limits;/of th~se 8,060 acres (about 8l % of total acres in the City
Limit) are in tax!~ Additfonally, the City has about 4,645 acres between the
City Limits and Urban Growth Boundary (the UGA); of this about 4,079 acres are
in tax lots.
Table 3-1. Acres in Springfield UGB and
City Limit, 2008
Area
Percent
Total Acres in in Tax
Tax Lots Acres Tax Lots Lots
City Limits 19,477 9,958 8,060 81%
Urban Growth Area 3,150 4,645 4,079 88%
Total 22,627 14,603 12,139 83%
Source: City of Springfield GIS data; analysis by ECONorthwest
Note: Urban Growth Area is the unincorporated area between the City Limits
and Urban Growth Boundary
Table 3-1 summarizes all land in the Springfield UGB. The next step is to
identify residential land base (e.g., lands with plan designations that allow
housing or "residential lands"). The land base includes traditional residential
designations, as well as mixed-use designations Note that not all of the land in
mixed-use designations will be used for employment.
Table 3-2 shows that about 7,482 acres within the Springfield UGB is
included in the residential land base. Thus, about 62% of land within the
Springfield UGB is included in the residential land base. The database includes all
land in tax lots that have any portion that is in a residential plan designation.
Page 12
ECONorthwest
December 2009
DRAFT: Springfield Housing Needs Analysis
Attachment 1-20
.
.
.
Exhibit A-21
Table 3-2. Lands designated for residential uses,
Springfield UGB, 2008
Area
Value
Springfield UGB
Number of Tax Lots
Acres in Tax Lots
Springfield CIBL
Tax Lots in Residential Designations
Acres in Land Base in Residential Designations
Source: analysis by ECONorthwest
22,627
12,139
20,159
7,482
Table 3-3 shows residential acres by classification and constraint status for the
Springfield UGB in 2009. Analysis by constraint status (the table columns) shows
that about 4,832 acres are classified as built or committed (e.g., unavailable for
development), l,203 acres were classified as constrained, and 1,447 were
classified as vacant buildable.
Table 3-3. Residential acres by classification, Springfield UGB, 2009
Land not avialable for Land available
housing for housing
Developed Constrained Capacity
Classification Tax Lots Total Ac Ac Ac Buildable Ac (DU)
Land with no development capacity
De-.eloped 18,745 4,408 4,124 284 0 0
Park/School 96 335 314 21 0 0
Public 58 79 35 44 0 0
Right of Way 145 175 145 30 0 0
Subtotal 19,044 4,997 4,618 379 0 0
Land with development capacity
Master Planned 18 151 138 13 See notes 1,248
Partially Vacant 234 841 77 170 595 3,206
Vacant 863 1 ,493 0 641 852 4,039
Subtotal 1,115 2,485 214 824 1,447 8,493
Total 20,159 7,482 4,832 1,202 1,447 8,493
Source: City of Springfield data; analysis by ECONorthwest
Note: No buildable acres are shown for master planned areas because the master plan identifies the number of
dwelling units, This capacity is reflected in Table 3-7,
DRAFT: Springfield Housing Needs Analysis
ECONorthwest
December 2009
Page 13
Attachment 1-21
.
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Residential Land
tiy Classification
City of Springfield
Oregon
Legend
D City Limit
D Urban Growth Boundary
'I
Class ifi cati ons
MASTER PLAN
PARTIALLY VACANT
VACANT
_ DEVELOPED
N
!
.
.
.
Exhibit A-23
VACANT BUILDABLE LAND
The next step in the buildable land inventory is to net out portions of vacant
tax lots that are unavailable for development. Areas unavailable for development
fall into two categories: (1) developed areas of partially vacant tax lots, and (2)
areas with physical constraints (in this instance areas with steep slopes, waterway
buffers, or wetlands).
Table 3-4 shows land with development capacity by constraint status. The
data show that about 214 acres within tax lots with development capacity are
developed. An additional 824 acres have development constraints that are
unbuildable, leaving about 1 ,447 vacant buildable residential acres within the
UGB.
Table 3-4. Residential land with development capacity by constraint
status, Springfield UGB, 2009
Acres unavailable for housing
Acres in Developed Unbuildable
Classification Tax Lots Tax Lots Acres Acres
Master Planned 18 151 138
Partially Vacant 234 841 77
Vacant 863 1,493 0
Total 1,115 2,485 214
Source: City of Springfield GIS data; analysis by ECONorthwest
Note: No buildable acres are shown for master planned areas because the master plan identifies
the number of dwelling units, This capacity is reflected in Table 3-7,
Buildable
Acres
13
170
641
824
See notes
595
852
1,447
Table 3-5 shows vacant land by plan designation. Map 3-3 shows the location
of vacant land by plan designation. Map 3-4 shows vacant land with constraints
that are unbuildable.
Table 3-5. Residential land with development capacity by plan
designation, Springfield UGB, 2008
Total Acres Developed Constrained Buildable
Plan Designation Tax Lots in Tax Lots Acres Acres Acres
Low Density Residential 981 2,137 71 765 1,301
Medium Density Residentia 126 329 142 58 128
High Density Res.idential 8 19 1 0 18
Total 1,115 2,485 214 824 1,447
Source: City of Springfield GIS data; analysis by ECONorthwest
DRAFT: Springfield Housing Needs Analysis
ECONorthwest
December 2009
Page 15
Attachment 1-23
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~<esldential Land
by Classification
City of Springfield
Oregon
Legend
D City Limits
D Urban Growth Boundary
Classifications
MASTER PLAN
PARTIALLY VACANT
VACANT
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by Classification
and Constraint Status
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Legend
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Classifications
MASTER PLAN
PARTIALLY VACANT
VACANT
Constraints
~ Slope >25%
ITit):r~i:~W;l Riparian Resource Areas
Floodway
c:J 100-yr Floodplain
Wetlands
~ BPA Easement
N
.
.
.
,
,
Exhibit A-26
REDEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL
Redevelopment potential addresses land that is classified as developed that
may redevelop during the planning period. While many methods exist to identify
redevelopment potential, a common indicator is improvement to land value ratio.
Different studies use different improvement to land value ratio thresholds.
This study does not use improvement-to-land value ratios as a redevelopment
threshold. The City of Springfield understands that low-value housing is an
integral part of the City's affordable housing stock and that encouraging
redevelopment of such housing will likely result in an overall loss of affordable
housing in Springfield.
Springfield uses a capacity-based method to identify redevelopment potential.
Redevelopment capacity is estimated based on historical redevelopment rates.
Historical rates of redevelopment are analyzed in Chapter 4.
RESIDENTIAL CAPACITY
The final step in a residential buildable lands inventory is to estimate the
capacity of buildable land in dwelling units. The capacity of residential land is
measured in dwelling units and is dependent on densities allowed in specific
zones as well as redevelopment potential. In short, land capacity is a function of
buildable land and density.
The buildable lands inventory indicates that Springfield has about l,44 7 acres
of vacant and partially-vacant residential land and an additional 21 acres in the
Glenwood mixed-use refinement plan area (these acres were included in the
commercial and industrial lands inventory and are included here only for the
purpose of estimating residential capacity).7 This yields a total of 1,468 buildable
acres.
Table 3-7 provides an estimate of how much housing could be accommodated
by those lands based on the needed densities identified in Table 5-25 after making
deductions for development constraints. It includes capacity for areas with
approved master plans that were not included in the acreage estimates. This
includes Marcola Meadows (518 dwellings in the MDR designation) and
RiverBend (730 dwellings in the MDR designation).
Table 3-7 shows that Springfield has capacity for 8,722 dwelling units within
the existing UGB. Note that this figure does not include capacity for
redevelopment."
7 Capacity in the Glenwood mixed-use area was calculated as follows: 21 buildable acres (45% of the 47-acre site; the policy requires 30%
to 60% of the site be used for housing) multiplied by 15 dwelling units per gross acre equals 317 dwelling units, minus 47 dwelling units
that would be displaced from the River Bank Mobile Home Park equals 270 dwelling units,
"Note that the revised capacity estimate of8,722 dwelling units does not make any adjustments for the City's Hillside Development
Ordinance which requires minimum lot sizes of 10,000 or greater on slopes 15% or higher, or areas above 670' in elevation. Future drafts
Page 18
ECONorthwest
December 2009
DRAFT: Springfield Housing Needs Analysis
Attachment 1-26
.
.
.
Exhibit A-27
Table 3-7. Estimated residential development capacity,
Springfield UGB, 2009
Residential
Buildable Capacity
Plan Designation Acres (DU)
Low Density Residential 824 5,379
Medium Density Residential 95 2,718
High Density Residential 16 355
Mixed-Use (Glenwood) 21 270
Total 956 8,722
Source: City of Springfield residential BLI; analysis by ECONorthwest
Note: Estimated residential development capacity includes sites with
approved master plans (RiverBend - 730 DU and Marcola Meadows - 518 DU,
All of this capacity is in the Medium Density Residential plan designation),
Percent
of
Capacity
60%
30%
4%
3%
97%
of the residential could use such deductions, including deductions for land in floodplains, ifthe Springfield Planning Commission and City
Council determine they yield more accurate results.
DRAFT: Springfield Housing Needs Analysis
ECONorthwest
Page 19
Attachment 1-27
December 2009
.
.
.
Exhibit A-28
Chapter 4 Historical Development Trends
Analysis of historical development trends in Springfield provides insights into
how the local housing market functions. The housing type mix and density are
also key variables in forecasting future land need. Moreover, such an analysis is
required by ORS 197.296. The specific steps are described in Task 2 of the DLCD
HB 2709 Workbook:
1. Determin~ the time period for which the data must be gathered
2. Identify types of housing to address (all needed housing types)
3. Evaluate permit/subdivision data to calculate the actual mix, average
actual gross density, and average actual net density of all housing types
ORS 197.296 requires the analysis of housing mix and density to include the
past five years or since the most recent periodic review, whichever time period is
greater.9
The City of Springfield used the 1999- July 2008 period for this analysis. The
rationale for using this period is that permit data prior to 1999 could not be
associated with tax lots to develop density estimates. Moreover, the most recent
housing needs analysis and inventory for the Eugene-Springfield Metropolitan
Area was conducted in 1999. With respect to housing mix, the 1990 and 2000
Census provide more accurate counts.
RESIDENTIA~ DEVELOPMENT TRENDS
Figure 4-1 shows dwelling units approved in the Springfield city limits
between 1980 and July 2008. Springfield approved 5,836 dwellings during this
26-year period. The number of dwellings approved annually ranges from a low of
14 in 1985 toa high of 616 in 1994. Springfield averaged about 217 dwelling unit
approvals per year during this period. The rate of development, however, shows
considerable variation from year to year. That variation can be largely tied to
economic conditions in the region.
9 Specifically,ORS 197.296(5) (b) states: "A local government shall make the determination described in paragraph (a) of this subsection
using a shorter time period than the time period described in paragraph (a) of this subsection if the local government finds that the shorter
time period will provide more accurate and reliable data related to housing capacity and need. The shorter time period may not be less than
three years,"
Page 20
ECONorthwest
December 2009
DRAFT: Springfield Housing Needs Analysis
Attachment 1-28
I-
-
-
Exhibit A-29
Figure 4-1. Dwelling units approved through building permits issued
for new residential construction, Springfield, 1980 - July 2008
700
600
500
".
CIl
e 400
0.
0.
<C
is 300
200
100
0
0 ;;; N C') <t 10 CD I"- <Xl (]) 0 a; N C') <t 10 CD I"- co (]) 0 0 N C') <t 10 CD I"- <Xl
co co <Xl co co <Xl <Xl <Xl <Xl (]) (]) (]) (]) (]) (]) (]) (]) (]) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
~ ~ ~ (]) (]) (]) (]) (]) (]) (]) (]) ~ ~ ~ (]) ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ N N N N N N N N N
Year
Source: City of Springfield Planning Department, 2008
Note: 2008 includes January through July,
Between July 1999 and July 2008, Springfield issued a total of 1,97l building
permits for new residential construction that allowed 2,860 dwelling units. Figure
4-l shows that the number of dwelling units approved varies from year to year
and peaked at 515 in 2002. The number of dwellings approved was slower in
1999 and 2001. Between 2003 and 2005, the number of dwellings approved
remained relatively steady at around 360 annually. By 2006, residential permits
reflected the downturn in the national housing market, but still remained relatively
strong averaging around 200 permits per year.
DRAFT: Springfield Housing Needs Analysis
ECONorthwest
December2009
Page 21
Attachment 1-29
.
.
.
Exhibit A-3D
Figure 4-1. Dwelling units approved through building permits issued
for new residential construction, Springfield, July 1999 - July 2008
600
500
III
b.Q 400
@
CII
3:
c
.... 300
0
..
CII
,g
E 200
:::l
Z
100
0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 thru
July
2008
Year
Source: City of Springfield Planning Department, 2006
Table 4-1 shows dwelling units approved through building permits issued for
new residential construction by type within Springfield. The data indicate that
about 54% of residential dwellings approved were for single-family detached
dwellings, manufactured homes accounted for about 10% of all permits issued,
and multifamily housing of all types accounted for 36% of permits issued.
Page 22
DRAFT: Springfield Housing Needs Analysis
ECONorthwest
December 2009
Attachment 1-30
Exhibit A-31
Table 4-1. Dwelling units approved through building permits issued for
. new residential construction by type, Springfield, July 1999 - July 2008
Year Single Manufact- Duplex Tri-Plex Four- Apart- Total
Family ured Plex ment Units
Home
1999 30 9 22 0 O. 0 61
2000 209 38 30 3 4 40 324
2001 121 46 16 6 0 6 195
2002 252 45 14 0 4 200 515
2003 230 31 18 6 84 0 369
2004 155 26 38 6 12 122 359
2005 144 31 38 6 140 0 359
2006 116 27 17 3 56 0 219
2007 180 30 0 4 61 275
thru July 2008 92 27 10 0 0 55 184
Total Units 1529 280 233 30 304 484 2860
% of Units 53.5% 9.8% 8.1% 1.0% 10.6% 16.9% 100.0%
Source: City of Springfield Planning Department, 2006
TRENDS IN HOUSING MIX AND TENURE
.
The housing mix by type (i.e., percentage of single family, multi-family, and
mobile/manufactured home units) is an important variable in any housing needs
assessment. Distribution of housing types is influenced by a variety of factors,
including the cost of new home construction, area economic and employment
trends, demographic characteristics, and amount of land zoned to allow different
housing types and densities.
Table 4-2 shows changes in Springfield's housing mix from 1990-2000.
Between 1990 and 2000, Springfield increased its housing stock by 19%, adding
3,451 dwelling units. The mix of housing did not change substantially. In 1990
and 2000, 54% of dwelling units were single-family detached units. Over the ten-
year period, Springfield added more than 2,000 single- family detached dwellings.
Thirty-one percent of the new dwellings added between 1990 to 2000 were
multifamily or manufactured. However, the share of these more affordable
housing types did not increase in Springfield over the ten-year period. In 1990,
these housing types accounted for 37% of the housing stock and in 2000 they
accounted for 37% ofthe housing stock.
.
With respect to tenure, Springfield experienced a 4% increase in the
ownership rate between 1990 and 2000. About 49% of housing in the Springfield
city limits was owner-occupied in 1990 and 54% was owner-occupied in 2000.
Homeownership rates in Springfield are lower than County and State averages. In
1990, about 61% of homes were owner-occupied in Lane County, a figure that
increased to 63% by 2000. State homeownership rates were 63% in 1990 and 64%
in 2000.
DRAFT: Springfield Housing Needs Analysis
ECONorthwest
December2009
Page 23
Attachment 1-31
.
.
.
Exhibit A-32
Table 4-2. Dwelling units by type and tenure, Springfield city limits, 1990
and 2000
1990 Census 2000 Census New DU 90-00
Housing Units Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent % Increase
Single-family detached 9,687 53,5% 11,721 54,3% 2,034 58,9% 21%
Single-family attached 1,755 9,7% 1,794 8,3% 39 1,1% 2%
Multifamily 4,777 26,3% 6,118 28.4% 1,341 38,9% 28%
Mobile/Manufactured 1,902 10,5% '1,939 9.0% 37 1,1% 2%
Total housing units 18,121 100.0% 21,572 100.0% 3,451 100.0% 19%
Occupied Housing Units 17,447 100.0% 20,514 100.0% 3,067 100.0% 18%
Owner-occupied 8,599 49,3% 10,987 53,6% 2,388 77,9% 28%
Renter-occupied 8,848 50,7% 9,527 46.4% 679 22,1% 8%
Source: U,S, Census of Population and Housing; SF-3 1990 and 2000,
Table 4-3 shows type of dwelling by tenure (owner/renter-occupied) in 2000.
The results show that single-family and manufactured housing types have a much
higher ownership rate than other housing types-about 95% of owner-occupied
units were in these housing types. Multifamily housing types, including duplexes
were predominately renter occupied. It is also notable that 88% of the single-
family attached dwellings were renter occupied. By contrast, 20% of single-
family detached and 13% of mobile homes were renter occupied in 2000.
Table 4-3. Housing units by type and tenure, Springfield city limits, 2000
Owne r-Occupied Renter-Occupied Total
%by %by %by %by %by
Housing Type Number Tenure Type Number Tenure Type Number Type
Single-family detached 8,989 80% 82% 2,219 20% 23% 11,208 55%
Single-family attached 204 12% 2% 1 ,494 88% 16% 1,698 8%
Multifamily-duplex 118 10% 1% 1,113 90% 12% 1,231 6%
Multifamily-3+ units 89 2% 1% 4,447 98% 47% 4,536 22%
Mobile home 1,581 87% 14% 244 13% 2% 1,825 9%
Total 10,981 54% 100% 9,517 46% 100% 20,498 100%
Source: US Census 2000, Summary File 3; Percentages calculated by ECONorthwest.
Note: Total number of units is slightly different than reported in Table 4-2 due to different data sources (this
table uses Summary File 3 sample data; Table 9,30.2 uses Summary File 1,100% count data,
Table 4-4 shows changes in Springfield's housing mix from 2000-July 2008
based on 2000 Census and residential building permit data provided by the City of
Springfield. Between 2000 and July 2008, Springfield increased its housing stock
about 13%, adding 2,799 dwelling units. The mix of housing changed slightly,
with multifamily dwellings accounting for about 0.9% greater share in July 2008
than 2000.
Page 24
DRAFT: Springfield Housing Needs Analysis
ECONorthwest
December 2009
Attachment 1-32
.
.
.
Exhibit A-33
Table 4-4. Estimated dwelling units by type, Springfield city limits, 2000 and
July 2008
2000 Census 2006 Est. New DU 00-06
Housing Units Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent % Increase
Single-family detached 11,721 54,3% 13,220 54,2% 1 ,499 53,6% 13%
Single-family attached 1 ,794 8,3% 1,794 7.4% na na 0%
Multifamily 6,118 28.4% 7,147 29,3% 1,029 36,8% 17%
MobilelManufactured 1,939 9,0% 2,210 9,1% 271 9,7% 14%
Total housinQ units 21,572 100.0% 24,371 100.0% 2,799 100.0% 13%
Source: U,S, Census of Population and Housing; SF-3 1990 and 2000; City of Springfield Building Permit
Data, 2006,
Note: the City building permit data does not distinguish between single-family attached and detached
dwellings, Thus, the 2008 estimate probably overestimates single-family detached dwellings and
underestimates single-family attached dwellings,
DENSITY
Table 4-5 summarizes approved net residential densities by housing type from
July 1999 through July 2008. During this period, 2,860 dwelling units were
approved by residential building permits. The dwellings are associated with
individual tax lots to calculate the net residential density (expressed indwelling
units per acre).1O This development consumed 436.3 net vacant acres. New
housing in Springfield developed at an average net density of 6.6 dwelling units
per net buildable acre between 1999 and July 2008.
The data indicate that single-family detached housing types averaged a density
of 5.4 dwelling units per net acre, while manufactured homes achieved a lower
density of 4.6 dwelling units per net acre. Multifamily housing types show more
variation-from 25 units per net acre for triplexes, to 8.5 dwelling units per net
acre for fourplexes, and 24.4 dwellings per net acre for apartment buildings with
five or more units.
10 OAR 660-024-0040(9) defines a net buildable acre as follows: For purposes of this rule, a "Net Buildable Acre" consists of 43,560 square
feet of residentially designated buildable land, after excluding present and future rights-of-way, restricted hazard areas, public open spaces
and restricted resource protection areas.
DRAFT: Springfield Housing Nee?s Analysis
ECONorthwest
December2009
Page 25
Attachment 1-33
Exhibit A-34
Table 4-5. Actual residential density by housing type, in net acres,
. Springfield, July 1999 - July 2008
Dwelling Percent Net DU/Net
Housing Type Units ofDU Acres Acre
Single-Family Detached 1,529 '53% 280.7 5.4
Manufactured Home 280 10% 61.2 4.6
Duplex 233 8% 37.5 6,2
Triplex 30 1% 1,2 25,0
Fourplex 304 11% 35,9 8,5
Apartments 5+ Units 484 17% 19.8 24.4
Total 2,860 100'16 436.3 6.6
Source: City of Springfield building permit data
REDEVELOPMENT TRENDS
Analysis of historical redevelopment of residential lands provides context for
determining how much redevelopment will occur over the 20-year planning
period. Specifically, the analysis addressed redevelopment by analyzing new
dwellings on developed lots. This includes lots that had addresses coded before
1999 and received additional addresses after 1999. In other words, it focuses on
lands that were identified as "developed" in the buildable lands inventory, but had
additional residential development in the 1999-2008 period.
.
The analysis found 102 new dwellings were added on developed lots between
1999 and 2008. This is about 4% of2,860 dwellings added in Springfield during
this period.
.
Page 26
ECONorthwest
December 2009
DRAFT: Springfield Housing Needs Analysis
Attachment 1-34
.
.
.
Exhibit A-35
Chapter 5
Housing Demand and Need
Chapter 2 described the framework for conducting a housing "needs" analysis.
ORS 197.296 (HB 2709) requires cities over 25,000 or fast growing cities to
conduct a housing needs analysis. A recommended approach is described in Task
3 of the HB 2709 Workbook. The specific steps in the housing needs analysis are:
1. Project number of new housing units needed in the next 20 years.
2. Identify relevant national, state, and local demographic and economic
trends and factors that may affect the 20-year projection of structure type
mIX.
3. Describe the demographic characteristics of the population and, if
possible, housing trends that relate to demand for different types of
housing.
4. Determine the types of housing that are likely to be affordable to the
projected households based on household income.
5. Estimate the number of additional needed units by structure type.
6. Determine the needed density ranges for each plan designation' and the
average needed net density for all structure types.
STEP 1: PROJECT NUMBER OF NEW HOUSING UNITS NEEDED IN THE
NEXT 20 YEARS
Step 1 in the housing needs analysis is to project the number of new housing
units needed during the planning period. This section describes the key
assumptions and estimates of new housing units needed in Springfield between
2000 and 2020.
POPULATION
Springfield must have a population forecast to project expected population
change over the 20-year planning period (in this instance, 2010-2030). Lane
County adopted coordinated population forecasts for the County and its
incorporated cities in June 2009. The forecasts include figures for Springfield for
2010 and 2030.
Table 5-1 shows the coordinated population forecast for the Springfield city
limit, urban area (the area between the city limit and UGB), and the UGB for
2010 to 2030. The UGB forecast for 2030 is 8l,608 persons-an increase of
14,577 persons during the 20-year planning period.
DRAFT: Springfield Housing Needs Analysis
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December 2009
Page 27
Attachment 1-35
Exhibit A-36
.
Table 5-1. Springfield coordinated population
forecast, Springfield UGB, 2010 to 2030
Urban
Area
Year
City Limit
58,891
74,814
8,140
6,794
UGB
67,031
81,608
2010
2030
Cha nge 2010-2030
Number 15,923 (1,346) 14,577
Percent 27% -17% 22%
AAGR 1.2% -0,9% 1,0%
Source: Lane County Rural Comprehensive Plan, 1984 (Amended in 2009),
Table 1-1, pg 5
PERSONS IN GROUP QUARTERS
Persons in group quarters do not consume standard housing units: thus, any
forecast of new people in group quarters is typically backed out of the population
forecast for the purpose of estimating housing need. Group quarters can have a
big influence on housing in cities with colleges (dorms); prisons, or a large elderly
population (nursing homes). In general, one assumes that any new requirements
for these lodging types will be met by institutions (colleges, state agencies, health-
care corporations) operating outside what is typically defined as the housing
market. Group quarters, however, require land and are typically built at densities
that are comparable to multiple-family dwellings.
.
Table 5-2 shows persons in group quarters in the City of Springfield as
reported by the 1980, 1990, and 2000 Census.
Table 5-2. Persons in group quarters, City of Springfield, 1980, 1990,
and 2000
VARIABLE 1980
Total Population 41,621
Persons in Group Quarters 184
Percent in Group Quarters 0.44%
Source: U,S, Census of Population and Housing, Summary File 1
1990
44,683
298
0.67%
2000
52,864
635
1.20%
For the purpose of estimating housing needs for Springfield, ECO assumed
that 1% of new persons (148 persons) will reside in group quarters. The majority
of these new persons will live in assisted living quarters.
A final note on persons in group quarters: persons in group quarters require
land. While the HB 2709 workbook backs this component of the population out of
total population that needs housing, it does not otherwise make accommodations
for land demand for new group quarters. For the purpose of this analysis, we
assume that persons in group quarters require land at approximately the same
density as multiple family housing. Land needed for group quarters is estimated at
the end ofthis chapter.
.
Page 28
ECONorthwest
December 2009
DRAFT: Springfield Housing Needs Analysis
Attachment 1-36
Exhibit A-37
HOUSEHOLD SIZE AND COMPOSITION
.
Twenty years ago, traditional families (married couple, with one or more
children at home) accounted for 29% of all households in Oregon. In 1990 that
percentage had dropped to 25%. It wi11likely continue to fall, but probably not as
dramatically. The average household size in Oregon was 2.60 in 1980 and 2.52 in
1990. One and two person households made up the majority of Oregon
households in 1990. The direct impact of decreasing household size on housing
demand is that smaller households means more households, which means a need
for more housing units even if population were not growing.
Table 5-3 shows average household size for Springfield as reported by the
1980, 1990, and 2000 Census. OAR 660-024-0040(7)(a) established a "safe
harbor" assumption for average household size-which is the figure from the
most recent Census (2.54 persons). The estimate of future housing needs uses an
average household size of 2.54 persons, as allowed by the safe harbor.
Table 5-3. Average household size,
Springfield, 1980, 1990 and 2000
Average
household size
Year
1980
1990
2000
2,57
2,54
2.54
.
Source: U,S, Census of Population and Housing,
Summary File 1
VACANCY RATE
Vacant units are the final variable in the basic housing need model. Vacancy
rates are cyclical and represent the lag between demand and the market's response
to demand in additional dwelling units. Vacancy rates for rental and multiple
family units are typically higher than those for owner-occupied and single-family
dwelling units.
Table 5-4 shows that the average vacancy rate for Springfield varies by time
period. The most recent Census showed an overall vacancy rate of 5%. The RCS
housing needs model, however, requires separate vacancy rate figures for single-
family and multifamily units. The vacancy rate in 2000 was 4.7% for single-
family units and 5.7% for multifamily units.
Table 5-4. Average vacancy rate, Springfield, 1980, 1990 and 2000
.
Variable 1980 1990
Housing Units 17,469 18,121
Occupied Housing Units 16,173 17,447
Vacant Housing Units 1,296 674
Vacancy Rate 7.42% 3,72%
Source: U,S, Census of Population and Housing, Summary File 1
2000
21,500
20,426
1,074
5.00%
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December 2009
Page 29
Attachment 1-37
.
.
.
Exhibit A-38
Thus study assumes an average vacancy rate of 5%--the same figure as
reported in the 2000 Census. The countywide vacancy rate was 6.1 % in 2000.
FORECAST OF NEW HOUSING UNITS, 2010-2030
The preceding analysis leads to a forecast of new housing units likely to be
built in Springfield during the 2010 to 2030 period. Based on the assumptions
shown in Table 5-5, Springfield will need 5,980 new dwelling units to
accommodate forecast population growth between 2010 and 2030. These figures
do not include new group quarters. The forecast assumes 60% will be single-
family housing types (single-family detached and manufactured) and 40% will be
multifamily. The rationale for the household mix is described in the housing
needs analysis section of this chapter.
The results indicate that Springfield will need to issue permits for about 299
new dwelling units annually during the planning period. This figure is consistent
with the 300 dwelling units approved annually during the 1999 to July 2008
period, but is still significantly below the 515 dwellings approved in 2002.
The forecast of new units does not include dwellings that will be demolished
and replaced. This analysis does not factor those units in; it assumes they will be
replaced at the same site and will not create additional demand for residential
land.
Table 5-5. Demand for new housing units, Springfield UGB,
2010-2030
Variable
Assumptions
I Results
14,577
145
14,432
2,54
5,682
5%
5,980
Change in persons
minus Change in persons in group quarters
equals Persons in households
Average household size
New occupied DU
Average vacancy rate
Total new DU
Single-family dwelling units
Percent single-family DU
New occupied single-fam ily DU
Multiple family dwelling units
Percent multiple familyDU
New occupied m ultiple-fam ily DU
Totals
equals Total new occupied dwelling units 5,980
Dwelling units needed annually 299
Source: Calculations by ECONorthwest based on safe harbor population forecast
and assumptions described above,
60%
3,588
40%
2,392
Page 30
DRAFT: Springfield Housing Needs Analysis
ECONorthwest
December 2009
Attachment 1-38
Exhibit A-39
.
STEP 2: IDENTIFY RELEVANT NATIONAL, STATE, AND LOCAL
DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC TRENDS AND FACTORS THAT MAY
AFFECT THE 20-YEAR PROJECTION OF STRUCTURE TYPE MIX
NATIONAL HOUSING TRENDS
The overview of national, state, and local housing trends builds from previous
work by ECO and conclusions from The State of the Nation's Housing, 2008
report from the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University. The
Harvard report summarizes the national housing outlook for the next decade as
follows:
"Housing markets contracted for a second straight year in 2007. The
national median single-family home price fell in nominal terms for the
first time in 40 years of recordkeeping, leaving several million
homeowners with properties worth less than their mortgages. With the
economy softening and many home loans resetting to higher rates, an
increasing number of owners had difficulty keeping current on their
payments. Mortgage performance---especially on subprime loans with
adjustable rates---eroded badly. Lenders responded by tightening
underwriting standards and demanding a higher risk premium,
accelerating the ongoing slide in sales and starts.
.
"It is still uncertain how far, and for how long, the housing crisis will
drive down household growth. Regardless, given the solid underpinnings
of long-term demand-including the recent strength of immigration and
the aging of the echo-boom generation into young adulthood-household
growth will pick up again once the economy recovers. But if the nation
suffers a prolonged economic downturn that results in lower immigration
and more doubling up, household growth in 2010-2020 may fall short of
the 14.4 million level currently projected.
This evaluation presents a bleak outlook for housing markets and for
homeownership in the short-term brought on by the subprime mortgage crisis.
However, the image painted of the future looks brighter, as the increase in
housing demand is naturally induced by the growth of the population in the
necessary age groups. Following is a summary of key national housing trends:
· By 2006, higher prices and rising interest rates had a negative impact on
market demand. Investor demand, home sales and single-family starts
dropped sharply. Growth in national sales prices also slowed. By 2007 and
early 2008, housing market problems had reached the rest of the economy,
resulting in a nationwide economic slowdown and fear of recession.
· Homeownership rates are decreasing. After l2 successive years of
increases, the national homeownership rate slipped in 2005, again in 2006
to 68.8%, and again in 2007 to 68.l %. The Joint Center for Housing
Studies predicts that once the corrections made to work off the housing
oversupply and prices start to recover, a return to traditional mortgage
.
DRAFT: Springfield Housing Needs Analysis
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December 2009
Page 31
Attachment 1-39
.
.
.
Exhibit A-40
products and the strength of natural demand will invigorate the
homeownership rate.
.
The long-term market outlook shows that homeownership is still the
preferred tenure. Over the next decade, 88% of net household growth is
expected to come from gains in the number of homeowners. While further
homeownership gains are likely during this decade, they are not assured.
.
Population increases will drive future demand. The Joint Center for
Housing Studies indicates that demand for new homes could total as many
as l4.4 million units nationally between 2010 and 2020. Nationally, the
vast majority of these homes will be built in lower-density areas where
cheaper land is in greater supply.
.
People and jobs have been moving away from central business districts
(CBDs) for more than a century: the number of the country's largest
metropolitan areas with more than half of their households living at least
10 miles from the CBD has more than tripled from 13 in 1970 to 46 in
2000; in six metropolitan areas more than a fifth of households live at least
30 miles out. While people older than 45 years are generally continuing to
move away from CBDs, younger people have begun to move nearer to
CBDs.
. Demand for higher density housing types exists among certain
demographics. They conclude that because of persistent income
disparities, as well as the movement of the echo boomers into young
adulthood, housing demand may shift away from single-family detached
homes toward more affordable multifamily apartments, town homes, and
manufactured homes. Supply-side considerations, however, outweigh
these demographic forces.
· Immigration will playa key role in accelerating household growth over
the next 10 years. Between 2000 and 2006, immigrants contributed to over
60% of household growth. Minorities will account for 68% of the l4.6
million projected growth in households for the 2005 to 2015 period.
Immigrants now comprise a growing share of young adults and children in
the United States. Twenty percent of Americans ages 25-34 are foreign
born, and an additional 9% are second generation Americans.
· An aging population, and of baby boomers in particular, will drive
changes in the age distribution of households in all age groups over 55
years. A recent survey of baby boomers showed that more than a quarter
plan to relocate into larger homes and 5% plan to move to smaller homes.
Second home demand among upper-income homebuyers of all ages also
continues to grow. Households aged 50 to 69 are expected to account for
the purchase of nearly half a million second homes between 2005 and
2015.
Page 32
ECONorthwest
DRAFT: Springfield Housing Needs Analysis
December 2009
Attachment 1-40
Exhibit A-41
.
. The Joint Center for Housing studies expects rental housing demand to
grow by 1.8 million households over the next decade. Minorities will be
responsible for nearly all of this increased demand. The minority share of
renter households grew from 37% in 1995 to 43% in 2005. The minority
share is forecast to exceed 50% of renter households in 2015.
Demographics will also playa role.
· Ratios of rent to income are forecast to continue to increase. In 2006, one
in three American households spent more than 30% of income on housing,
and more than one in seven spent upwards of 50%. The national trend
towards increased rent to income ratios is mirrored regionally in that a
salary of two to three times the 2007 Federal minimum wage of $5.85 is
needed to afford rents in Lane County.
The U.S Bureau of Census Characteristics of New Housing Report presents
data that show trends in the characteristics of new housing for the nation, state,
and local areas. Several trends in the characteristics of housing are evident from
the New Housing Report:
.
· Larger single-family units on smaller lots. Between 1997 and 2007 the
median size of new single-family dwellings increased l5%, from
l,975 sq. ft. to 2,277 sq. ft. nationally and 18% in the western region
from 1,930 sq. ft. to 2,286 sq. ft. Moreover, the percentage of units
under l,200 sq. ft. nationally decreased from 8% in 1997 to 4% in
2007. The percentage of units greater than 3,000 sq. ft. increased from
15% in 1997 to 26% of new one-family homes completed in 2007. In
addition to larger homes, a move towards smaller lot sizes is seen
nationally. Between 1994 and 2007 the percentage of lots under 7,000
sq. ft. increased by 13% from 29% oflots to 33% of lots. A
corresponding 4% decrease in lots over ll,OOO sq. ft. is seen.
· Larger multifamily units. Between 1999 and 2007, the median size of
new multiple family dwelling units increased by 15%. The percentage
of multifamily units with more than 1,200 sq. ft. increased from 26%
to 47% in the western region and from 28% to 50% nationally. The
percentage of units with less than 600 sq. ft. stayed at 1 % both
regionally and nationally.
· More household amenities. Between 1994 and 2007 the percentage of
single-family units built with amenities such as central air
conditioning, fireplaces, 2 or more car garages, or 2 or more baths all
increased. The same trend in increased amenities is seen in multiple
family units.
.
A clear linkage exists between demographic characteristics and housing
choice. This is more typically referred to as the linkage between life-cycle and
housing choice and is documented in detail in several publications. Analysis of
data from the Public Use Microsample (P~MS) in the 2000 Census to describe
DRAFT: Springfield Housing Needs Analysis
ECONorthwest
December 2009
Page 33
Attachment 1-41
.
.
.
Exhibit A-42
the relationship between selected demographic characteristics and housing choice.
Key relationships identified through this data include:
, . Homeownership rates increase as income increases;
. Homeownership rates increase as age increases;
. Choice of single-family detached housing types mcreases as mcome
mcreases;
. Renters are much more likely to choose multiple family housing types
than single-family; and
. Income is a stronger determinate of tenure and housing type choice for all
age categories.
STEP 3: DESCRIBE THE DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS OF THE
POPULATION AND, IF POSSIBLE, HOUSING TRENDS THAT RELATE TO
DEMAND FOR DIFFERENT TYPES OF HOUSING
State and regional demographic and housing trends are important to a
thorough understanding of the dynamics of the Springfield housing market.
Springfield exists in a regional economy; trends in the region impact the local
housing market. This section documents state and regional demographic and
housing trends relevant to Springfield.
DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS
This section reviews historical demographic trends in the Lane County and
Springfield. Demographic trends provide a broader context for growth in a region;
factors such as age, income, migration and other trends show how communities
have grown and shape future growth. To provide context, we compare the
Springfield with Lane County and Oregon where appropriate. Characteristics such
as age and ethnicity are indicators of how population has grown in the past and
provide insight into factors that may affect future growth.
State Demographic Trends
Oregon's 2006-2010 Consolidated Plan includes a detailed housing needs
analysis as well as strategies for addressing housing needs statewide." The plan
concludes that "Oregon's changing population demographics are having a
significant impact on its housing market." It identified the following population
and demographic trends that influence housing need statewide:
. II th fastest growing in the United States
. Facing dramatic housing cost increases
11 http://www.ohcs.oregon.gov/OHCS/HRS_Consolidated_Plan _ 5yearplan.shtml
Page 34
ECONorthwest
December 2009
DRAFT: Springfield Housing Needs Analysis
Attachment 1-42
Exhibit A-43
.
. Facing median and adjusted incomes less than those of 1999
. Growing faster than national rates: 4.0% v. 3.3% and expecting a non-
entitlement growth during this consolidated plan of about 6%, 82% of
which will come from in-migration.
. Increasingly older
· Increasingly diverse
. Increasingly less affluent12
Richard Bjelland, State Housing Analyst at the Housing and Community
Services Department of the State of Oregon, analyzed recent demographic
changes taking place in Oregon and discussed their implications in a 2006
presentation "Changing Demographics: Impacts to Oregon and the US." Some of
Bjelland's most significant findings are summarized below:
· Oregon's minority population is growing quickly. Minorities made up
9.2% of the population in 1990 and 16.5% of the population in 2000, a
52% increase.
.
· Hispanics and Latinos make up a large share of that population and
their growth rate is higher than non-Hispanics/ Latinos. The growth rate of
Oregon's non-Hispanic/ Latino population between 1990 and 2000 was
l5.3% compared to 144.3% for Hispanics and Latinos.
· The birth rates of Hispanic/ Latino residents are higher than non-
Hispanic/ Latino residents. In 1998, for the US, white non-Hispanic/
Latino residents had a birth rate of 12.3 per l,OOO, lower than Asians and
Pacific Islanders (16.4 per 1,000), black non-Hispanics (18.2 per 1,000)
and Hispanic/ Latino (24.3 per 1,000).
. The share of resident births and deaths in Oregon shows the implications
of that birthrate: Hispanic/ Latino residents accounted for 17.4% of births
but only 1.4% of deaths in Oregon for 2001. In addition, Hispanic/ Latino
Oregonians are younger than non-Hispanic/ Latino residents: in 2000,
75.9% of Hispanic/ Latino residents of Oregon are under age 35,
compared to 45.7% of non-Hispanic/ Latino residents.
· In Oregon, Hispanic/ Latino per capita income in 2005 was only 44% of
white per capita income.
· Hispanic/ Latino residents of Oregon become homeowners at younger
ages than non-Hispanic/ Latino residents. Table 5-6 shows that Hispanic/
Latino Oregonians under 45 have higher homeownership rates than non-
Hispanic/ Latino residents.
.
12 State of Oregon Consolidated Plan, 2006-2010, pg. 23.
DRAFT: Springfield Housing Needs Analysis
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December 2009
Page 35
Attachment 1-43
.
.
.
Exhibit A-44
Table 5-6. Oregon homeownership rates
by age of householder, 2000
Age of Non-Hispanicl Hispanicl
householder Latino Latino
25-34 10.2% 25.7%
35-44 20,6% 31.0%
45 and older 68.1 % 39.4%
Source: Richard Bjelland, State Housing Analyst at the
Housing and Community Services Department of the State of
Oregon, "Changing Demographics: Impacts to Oregon and
the US" 2006, He obtained his data from US Census 2000,
Note: Percentages represent percent of households in each
age group that own homes; columns do not sum to 100%,
Regional Demographic Trends
Regional demographic trends largely follow the statewide trends discussed
above, but provide additional insight into how demographic trends might affect
housing in Springfield.
Figure 5-l shows the populations of Oregon, Lane County, and Springfield by
age for 2000. Springfield has a greater proportion of its population less than 40
years old than Oregon and Lane County, especially residents aged 20-29 and
under 9 years. Springfield has comparatively fewer residents over 40 than the
state.
Figure 5-1. Population distribution by age, Oregon, Lane County, and
Springfield, 2000
70 and older
60-69
50-59
40-49
Gl
Cl
<C 30-39
20-29
10-19
-. - -- -.
..__._.M_____ _
--.-. -
---~---- - --
--- - ---- ---- ---
-~------ - -----
~--- -
---- ------.--.--
Under 9
- -I
0%
2%
4%
6% 8% 10% 12%
Percent of populatic
14%
16%
18%
I . OR . Lane County 0 Springfield'
Source: U.S, Census, 2000
Some outlying communities in the region have populations similar in age
distribution to Springfield. Outlying communities with the largest percent of
Page 36
DRAFT: Springfield Housing Needs Analysis
ECONorthwest
December 2009
Attachment 1-44
Exhibit A-45
.
households with children from the 2000 census were: Creswell (41%), Veneta
(40%), Junction City (40%), and Coburg (38%). The communities with the
smallest percent of households with children were Eugene (27%), Oakridge
(28%), and Cottage Grove (35%).
In the communities with larger shares of children, attendance rates of children
in elementary school are not declining, unlike districts such as Oakridge,
McKenzie, and Pleasant Hill. School districts that have experienced increases in
the Kindergarten-2nd grade populations are Fern Ridge District 28J (increased
since 2003), Lowell 7l (since 2004), Creswell 40 (since 1999 with a dip in 2004),
and Junction City 69 (from 2002 to 2005). However, this data is based on small
districts with small class sizes, so it is not entirely conclusive.
Outlying communities with the largest percent of persons 65 and over from
the 2000 Census were: Oakridge (21 %) and Cottage Grove (15%). The
community with the smallest percent of persons 65 and older was Veneta (9%).
These data indicate that some outlying communities' trend toward older
populations, others trend towards younger populations with families with younger
children.
.
Table 5-7 shows population by age for Lane County for 2000 and 2006. The
data show that Lane County grew by 13,479 people between 2000 and 2006,
which is a 4% increase. The age breakdown shows that the County experienced an
increase in population for every age group over age 25. The fastest growing age
groups were aged 45 to 64 years and 65 and over. The group that experienced the
fastest negative growth was ages l8-24.
Table 5-7. Population by age, Lane County, 2000 and 2006
2000 2006 Chanae
Aae Group Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Share
Under 5 18,584 6% 18,056 5% -528 -3% 0%
5-17 55,230 17% 52,730 16% -2,500 -5% -1%
18-24 38,662 12% 34,666 10% -3,996 -10% -2%
25-44 88,849 28% 95,171 28% 6,322 7% 1%
45-64 78,680 24% 88,926 26% 10,246 13% 2%
65 and over 42,954 13% 46,889 14% 3,935 9% 1%
Total 322,959 100% 336,438 100% 13,479 4% 0%
Source: U,S, Census, 2000 and Claritas, 2006
Table 5-8 shows Claritas Inc. population forecast by age for Lane County
from 2006 to 2011. The data show that, with the exception of the 5-17 and l8-24
year old groups, each age group will experience growth and that groups aged 65
years and older and 45 to 64 years will grow at the fastest rates. The forecast
shows that the 5 to 17 and 18 to 24 year age groups will decline.
.
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December 2009
Page 37
Attachment 1-45
Exhibit A-46
.
Table 5-8. Claritas Inc. population projection by age, Lane County,
2006 and 2011
2006 2011 Chanae
Age Group Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Share
Under 5 18,056 5% 18,615 5% 559 3% 0%
5-17 52,730 16% 51,098 15% -1,632 -3% -1%
18-24 34,666 10% 31,827 9% -2,839 -8% -1%
25-44 95,171 28% 99,401 29% 4,230 4% 0%
45-64 88,926 26% 94,999 27% 6,073 7% 1%
65 and over 46,889 14% 52,765 15% 5,876 13% 1%
Total 336,438 100% 348,705 100% 12,267 4% 0%
Source: Claritas, 2006
The data in Tables 5-7 and 5-8 suggest that Lane County is attracting older
people and experiencing comparatively slow growth (or negative growth) in
people under 44 years old. The age distribution in Figure 3 suggests a higher
percentage of young adults (20-29) and children live in Springfield, indicating
that Springfield's population and age trends are somewhat different from the
projections for the county as a whole.
.
Between 1990 and 1999, almost 70% of Oregon's total population growth was
from net migration (in-migration minus out-migration), with the remaining 30%
from natural increase (births minus deaths).l3 Migrants to Oregon tend to have
many characteristics in common with existing residents, with some differences-
recent in-migrants to Oregon are, on average, younger and more educated, and are
more likely to hold professional or managerial jobs, compared to Oregon's
existing population. The race andethnicity of in-migrants generally mirrors
Oregon's established pattern, with one exception: Hispanics make up more than
7% ofin-migrants but only 3% of the state's population. The number-one reason
cited by in-migrants for coming to Oregon was family or friends, followed by
quality of life and employment.14
Migration is a significant component of population growth in Lane County.
Seventy-three percent of population growth in Lane County between 1990 and
2000 was from in-migration. This figure remained at 73% for the 2000-2005
period.15
The U.S. Census collects information about migration patterns. Specifically, it
asks households where their residence was in 1995 (5 years prior to the Census
count). Table 5-9 shows place of residence in 1995 for Oregon, Lane County, and
Springfield. The data show that Springfield residents are more mobile than Lane
County and Oregon residents. Less than half of residents in Oregon, Lane County
or Springfield lived in the same residence in 1995 as in 2000. Twenty-four
l3 Portland State University, Population Research Center, 2000.1990-2000 Components of Population Change
14 State of Oregon, Employment Department. 1999.1999 Oregon In-migration Study.
.
15 Portland State University, Population Research Center, 2005. 2005 Oregon Population Report and contents
Page 38
ECONorthwest
December 2009
DRAFT: Springfield Housing Needs Analysis
Attachment 1-46
Exhibit A-47
.
percent of Oregonians, 20% of residents of Lane County and 19% of residents of
Springfield lived in a different county in 1995. Eleven percent of residents of
Springfield and 13% of residents of Lane County lived in a different state in 1995,
compared with 12% of Oregonians.
Table 5-9. Place of residence in 1995, Oregon, Lane County, and
Springfield, persons 5 years and over
Oreoon Lane County Sorinofield
Persons Percent Persons Percent Persons Percent
Population 5 years and older 3,199,323 100% 304,463 100% 48,403 100%
Same house in 1995 1,496,938 47% 142,447 47% 20,023 41%
Different house in 1995 1,702,385 53% 162,016 53% 28,380 59%
Same county 863,070 27% 94,788 31% 18,610 38%
Different county 755,954 24% 61,639 20% 9,085 19%
Same state 356,626 11% 23,526 8% 3,599 7%
Different state 399,328 12% 38,113 13% 5,486 11%
Source: U,S, Census, 2000
Table 5-10 shows the number of persons of Hispanic or Latino origin for
Oregon, Lane County, and Springfield for 1990 and 2000. Springfield has a
lower proportion of Hispanic/Latino residents as Oregon and a higher proportion
than Lane County. In 2000, Springfield's population was 6.6 % Hispanic/Latino,
compared with 4.5% of residents in Lane County.
.
The Hispanic/Latino population grew faster in Springfield than in Lane
County from 1990 to 2000. Springfield's Hispanic/Latino population grew by
168% between 1990 and 2000. During the same period, Lane County's
Hispanic/Latino population grew by III % and Oregon' Hispanic/Latino
population grew by 143%.
Table 5-10. Persons of Hispanic or Latino origin, Oregon, Lane
County, and Springfield, 1990 and 2000
Lane
Oregon County Springfield
1990
Total population 2,842,321 282,912 44,683
Hispanic or Latino 112,707 6,852 1,299
Percent Hispanic or Latino 4,0% 2.4% 2.9%
2000
Total population 3,421,399 322,959 52,729
Hispanic or Latino 273,938 14,488 3,475
Percent Hispanic or Latino 8.0% 4.5% 6,6%
Change 1990-2000
Hispanic or Latino 161,231 7,636 2,176
Percent Hispanic or Latino 143% 111% 168%
Source: U,S, Census, 2000
Table 5-l1 shows the number of Hispanic and Latino residents and the percent
of Hispanic/ Latino residents as a percent of the total population between 1990
and 2000. The number of Hispanic and Latino residents is growing in all outlying
.
DRAFT: Springfield Housing Needs Analysis
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December 2009
Page 39
Attachment 1-47
.
.
.
Exhibit A-48
areas, especially in Cottage Grove and Junction City, according to the US Census
1990 and 2000.
Table 5-11. Persons of Hispanic or Latino origin, outlying
communities, 1990 and 2000
1990 2000 Change
Percent Percent
Number of total Number of total Number Percent
Coburg 18 2% 29 3% 11 61%
Cottage Grove 162 2% 417 5% 255 157%
Creswell 109 4% 251 7% 142 130%
Eugene 3,051 3% 6,843 5% 3,792 124%
Junction City 73 2% 391 8% 318 436%
Oakridge 141 5% 158 5% 17 12%
Springfield 1,299 3% 3,651 7% 2,352 181%
Veneta 50 2% 115 4% 65 130%
Source: US Census 1990 and 2000
Table 5-12 shows household size by ethnicity for Oregon, Lane County, and
Springfield. The number of people per household is similar for Oregon, Lane
County, and Springfield for non-Hispanic households and Hispanic households.
In each area, non-Hispanic households have a little less than 2.5 people per
household. Households for Hispanic residents are larger, with between 3.2 and 3.9
people per household. The data show that Hispanic residents have between 0.7
and 1.4 additional people per household than non-Hispanic residents.
Table 5-12. Household size by ethnicity for Oregon,
Lane County, and Springfield, 2000
Oregon Lane County Springfield
2.42 2,39 2.49
3,87 3,19 3.50
Non-Hispanic/ Latino
Hispanicl Latino
Source: U,S, Census, 2000
In conclusion: (1) Springfield residents are younger than residents of Lane
County, even as county-wide age levels are trending older; (2) Springfield has a
growing population of Hispanic/ Latino residents, whose higher average
household size is larger than non-Hispanic/ Latino residents.
Household type and relationship also has implications for housing needs. For
example, one-person households need smaller dwellings than family households
with children. Table 5-13 shows household type and relationship in Springfield
for 1990, 2000, and the 2005-07 period. The data show an increase in all
household types during this period. With respect to share of household types, one-
person households increased from 25% to 30% of Springfield households. A
cOl-responding decrease in share occurred in two or more person households, with
most ofthe decrease in'share coming from married couple family households.
Page 40
DRAFT: Springfield Housing Needs Analysis
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December 2009
Attachment 1-48
Exhibit A-49
.
Table 5-13. Household type and relationship, Springfield, 1990, 2000 and 2005-07
1990 2000 2005-07 ACS Chanae 1990-2005/07
Household Type Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Share
1-person household 4,346 25% 5,206 25% 6,646 30% 2,300 53% 5%
2 or more person household 13,101 75% 15,308 75% 15,707 70% 2,606 20% -5%
Family households: 11 ,593 66% 13.479 66% 13,915 62% 2,322 20% -4%
Married-couple family 8,572 49% 9,373 46% 9,832 44% 1,260 15% -5%
Other family: 3,021 17% 4,106 20% 4,083 18% 1,062 35% 1%
Male householder, no wife present 658 4% 1,164 6% 1,017 5% 359 55% 1%
Female householder, no husband present 2,363 14% 2,942 14% 3,066 14% 703 30% 0%
Nonfamilv households: 1508 9% 1,829 9% 1,792 8% 284 19% -1%
Total 17,447 100% 20,514 100"10 22,353 100% 4,906 28%
Source: U,S, Census, 1990,2000, American Community Survey (2005-07)
Note: 2005-07 American Community Survey is based on pooled data from household surveys conducted in 2005, 2006 and
2007,
HOUSING TRENDS
Table 5-14 shows the total number of permitted dwellings (single-family and
multi-family) by year for selected Lane County cities between 2000 and 2007.
Table 5-14 shows that Eugene had the highest number of permitted units during
the period, with Springfield and Creswell having the second- and third-highest.
Junction City and Oakridge had the lowest number of permitted units. Most cities
showed the highest numbers of permitted units over the time period either in 2004
or in 2005, although Springfield's highest total was in 2003.
.
Table 5-14. Total permitted dwellings (all types) by year,
selected Lane County cities, 2000-2007
City 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Total
Eugene 744 760 828 611 876 1,327 731 ~55 6432
Springfield 274 272 290 324 164 231 211 265 2031
Creswell 26 67 82 93 153 62 56 84 623
Cottage Grove 29 17 28 68 44 86 53 32 357
Junction City 15 12 12 13 10 13 8 78 161
Veneta 11 24 43 96112 117 128 62 593
Oakridge 1 4 1 0 8 4 9 13 40
Total 1,100 1,156 1,284 1,205 1,367 1,840 1,196 1,089 10,237
Source: U,S, Census, Building permits data site, http://censtats,census,gov/bldg/bldgprmt.shtml
Note: These numbers a different than those provided by the City of Springfield that were used for
the historical density analysis, We believe the data provided by the City are more accurate,
Table 5-15 shows the permits issued for new single-family dwellings in
selected Lane County cities between 1996 and 2007. Table 5-l5 shows that
Springfield's number of permits issued for single-family dwellings remained
consistently between 220 and 245 between 1998 and 2003, and has recently
fluctuated at lower levels.
.
DRAFT: Springfield Housing Needs Analysis
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December 2009
Page 41
Attachment 1-49
.
.
.
Exhibit A-50
Table 5-15. Permits issued for new single-family dwellings, selected Lane
County cities, 1996-2007
City 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Eugene 845 721 665 656 619 633 673 559 583
Springfield N/A 192 221 239 222 225 243 232 128
Coburg 12 9 11 10 3 1 7 6 2
Creswell 30 43 45 32 26 67 80 91 133
Cottage Grove 37 19 54 45 29 17 15 19 34
Junction City 53 19 13 28 15 12 34 13 10
Veneta 13 10 11 19 11 24 43 96 112
Oakridge 5 2 1 12 1 2 1 0 8
TOTAL 995 1,015 1,021 1,041 926 981 1,096 1,016 1,010
2005 2006
756 528
98 134
6 4
60 56
70 39
13 8
117 128
4 9
1,124 906
2007
297
170
1
84
22
78
62
11
725
Source: www.citv-data.com.
Table 5-16 shows the total permitted single-family and multifamily dwellings
(aggregated) by year between 2000 and 2007 for selected Lane County cities.
Table 5-16 shows that Eugene consistently issues permits for the most multi-
family units among the cities shown, whereas Oakridge, Veneta, Junction City
and Creswell only issue permits for the occasional multifamily unit. Springfield
typically issues permits for around 50 multifamily units each year, although it
issued permits for 133 units in 2005.
Page 42
ECONorthwest
December 2009
DRAFT: Springfield Housing Needs Analysis
Attachment 1-50
.
.
.
Exhibit A-51
Table 5-16. Total permitted single-family and multifamily
dwellings (aggregated) by year, selected Lane County cities,
2000-2007
City 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Eugene
Single family 619 633 673 559 583 756 528 297
Multifamily 125 127 155 52 293 571 203 258
Springfield
Single family 222 225 243 232 128 98 134 170
Multifamily 52 47 47 92 36 133 77 95
Coburg
Single family N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Multifamily N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Creswell
Single family 26 67 80 91 133 60 56 84
Multifamily 0 0 2 2 20 2 0 0
Cottage Grove
Single family 29 17 15 19 34 70 39 22
Multifamily 0 0 13 49 10 16 14 10
Junction City
Single family 15 12 12 13 10 13 8 78
Multifamily 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Veneta
Single family 11 24 43 96 112 117 128 62
Multifamily 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Oakridge
Single family 1 2 1 0 8 4 9 11
Multifamily 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 2
Source: U.S. Census, Building permits data site, http://censtats.census.gov/bldg/bldgprmt.shtml
Figure 5-2 and Table 5-17 show where residents of Springfield worked in
2006. Figure 5-2 and Table 5-17 show that more than 80% of residents of
Springfield worked in Lane County, with 26% of Springfield residents working in
Eugene and 28% working in Springfield. About 27% of Springfield residents
worked in unincorporated Lane County.
DRAFT: Springfield Housing Needs Analysis
ECONorthwest
December 2009
Page 43
Attachment 1-51
.
.
.
Exhibit A-52
)
001
\
.0 "i... ",-..}__I-
-1.;/~
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., ...12:.1,
,. , \yJ--- ,(one
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Table 5-17. Places where residents of
Springfield were employed, 2003
Page 44
ECONorthwest
Location
Lane County
Springfield
Eugene
Other Lane County
Linn County
Washington County
Multnomah County
Marion County
Douglas County
All Other Locations
Total
Number Percent
18,706 81%
6,512 28%
6,034 26%
6,160 27%
641 3%
619 3%
488 2%
468 2%
463 2%
1,837 8%
23,222 100%
Source: US Census Bureau, LED Origin-Destination Data
Base (2nd Quarter 2003)
Note: Percent column adds to 101% due to rounding errors
The implication of the data presented in this section is that majority of
Springfield's workforce lives in Lane County, but many do not reside in the City
of Springfield. Residents of Springfield are more likely to work in Eugene than in
December 2009
DRAFT: Springfield Housing Needs Analysis
Attachment 1-52
.
.
.
Exhibit A-53
Springfield. This analysis shows that businesses in Springfield have access to the
labor force in parts of Lane County.
SUMMARY OF KEY DEMOGRAPHIC AND HOUSING TRENDS
Springfield has a larger share of young people than Lane County as a
whole
. Springfield has a higher percentage of people under age 30 than Lane
County.
· Between 2000 and 2006, Lane County experienced changes in the age
structure of its residents. Age groups under age 25 experienced negative
growth; the fastest growing age groups were people aged 45 to 64 and 65
and over. This indicates that retirees or people nearing retirement are
moving to Lane County; Springfield's share of young people shows that
its age structure is experiencing different age trends.
Migration is an important component of recent growth in Lane County
and will continue to be a key factor in future population growth.
· In-migration accounted for 73% of population growth in Lane County
between 1990 and 2000 and between 2000 and 2005.
· Springfield's population was more mobile than the County's as a whole.
Only 41 % of the residents of Springfield lived in the same house in 2000
as they did in 1995 compared to 47% for all of Lane County. A greater
share ofthe population in Springfield moved within Lane County during
that time period (38%) than for Lane County as a whole (31 %).
Single-person households are increasing faster than other household
types.
. Between 1990 and 2005/07 one-person households increased from 25% to
30% of Springfield households. A corresponding decrease in share
occurred in two or more person households, with most of the decrease in
share coming from married couple family households
Springfield is becoming more ethnically diverse.
· Springfield's HispaniclLatino population grew by 168% (2,352 persons)
between 1990 and 2000, compared with 111 % growth in Lane County's
HispaniclLatino population during the same period.
· Other smaller communities near Springfield experienced significant
growth in Hispanic/ Latino populations. The communities experiencing
the largest increase in the Hispanic/ Latino populations were Eugene
(3,792), Junction City (318), Cottage Grove (255), and Creswell (142).
DRAFT: Springfield Housing Needs Analysis
ECONorthwest
December 2009
Page 45
Attachment 1-53
.
.
.
Exhibit A-54
Hispanic/Latino residents have larger, younger households.
. The birth rates for Hispanic/ Latino residents (1998 data) are 24.3 per
1,000 compared to 12.3 per 1,000 for non-Hispanic/ Latino residents.
. Hispanic/ Latino residents accounted for 17.4% of births and only 1.4% of
deaths in Oregon in 2001. -
. In 2000, 75.9% of Hispanic/ Latino Oregonians are under 35 compared to
45.7% of non-Hispanic/ Latino residents.
. The average size of a HispaniclLatino household in 2000 in Lane County
was 3.2 people, compared with 2.4 people in non-Hispanic households.
Household sizes in Springfield were larger: 2.5 for non-Hispanic
households and 3.5 for Hispanic/ Latino households.
Hispanic/Latino'residents typically have lower incomes but become
homeowners at younger ages than non-Hispanic/ Latino residents.
. Per capita income in Oregon in 2005 for Hispanic and Latino residents
was only 44% of white per capita income/
· 56.7% of Hispanic/ Latino residents of Oregon under age 45 are
homeowners, compared to 30.8% of non-Hispanic/ Latino residents
Springfield is part of a complex, interconnected regional housing market.
· Among selected Lane County cities, Springfield has the third-highest
permit average permit valuation for 2005 (behind Coburg and Eugene) and
average construction costs for 2005 were highest in Springfield. .
· However, median sales prices for Springfield were lower between 1999
and 2007 than median prices in Lane County, and Springfield had the
lowest median sales prices in 2007 among all of the selected cities.
· Commuting is typical throughout the region: Springfield's workforce lives
in Lane County, but many do not reside in the City of Springfield.
Since 2000, housing starts in the selected cities within Lane County have
been dominated by single-family types.
· The data show that new housing development in the 2000-2007 period
was predominately single-family housing types. In fact, only 32% of all
units for which building permits were issued in the 2000-2007 were for
multifamily housing types.
· Springfield's number of permits issued for single-family dwellings
remained consistently above 220 between 1998 and 2003, and dropped to
below 135 per year between 2004 and 2007.
Page 46
DRAFT: Springfield Housing Needs Analysis
ECONorthwest
December 2009
Attachment 1-54
.
.
.
Exhibit A-55
Housing types are trending towards larger units on smaller lots.
· Between 1997 and 2007 the median size of new single-family dwellings
increased 15%, from 1,975 sq. ft. to 2,277 sq. ft. nationally and 18% in the
western region from 1,930 sq. ft. to 2,286 sq. ft. Moreover, the percentage
of units under 1,200 sq. ft. nationally decreased from 8% in 1997 to 4% in
2007. The percentage of units greater than 3,000 sq. ft. increased from
15% in 1997 to 26% of new one-family homes completed in 2007.
· In addition to larger homes, a move towards smaller lot sizes is seen
nationally. Between 1994 and 2007 the percentage oflots under 7,000 sq.
ft. increased by 13% from 29% of lots to 33% oflots. A corresponding 4%
decrease in lots over 11,000 sq. ft. is seen.
· Even when controlling for income and savings, level of education, age,
marital status, family size, the housing market in which the unit was
located [and other factors], compared to whites both black families and
Hispanic families had significantly lower likelihood of homeowners hip,
lower house values (for owners) and lower rents (for renters).I6
. Minority households have substantially lower rents than white
households. 17
· Hispanic households, particularly low-income families, have higher levels
of mortgage debt than do white households, although their house values
are lower than whites. This suggests a substantial difference in borrowing
or loan terms for Hispanics. 18
IMPLICATIONS OF DEMOGRAPHIC AND HOUSING TRENDS FOR HOUSING NEED
The purpose of the analysis thus far has been to give some background on the
kinds of factors that influence housing choice, and in doing, to convey why the
number and interrelationships among those factors ensure that generalizations
about housing choice are difficult and prone to inaccuracies.
There is no question that age affects housing type and tenure. Mobility is
substantially higher for people aged 20 to 34. People in that age group will also
have, on average, less income than people who are older. They are less likely to
have children. All of these factors mean that younger households are much more
likely to be renters; renters are more likely to be in multi-family housing.
16 Boehm, Thomas P. and Alan M. Schlottmann, "Housing Tenure, Expenditure, and Satisfaction Across Hispanic, African American, and.
White Households: Evidence from the American Housing Survey." US Department of Housing and Urban Development, February 2006.
17 Boehm, Thomas P. and Alan M. Schlottmann, "Housing Tenure, Expenditure, and Satisfaction Across Hispanic, African American, and
White Households: Evidence from the American Housing Survey." US Department of Housing and Urban Development, February 2006.
18 Boehm, Thomas P. and Alan M. Schlottmann, "Housing Tenure, Expenditure, and Satisfaction Across Hispanic, African American, and
White Households: Evidence from the American Housing Survey." US Department of Housing and Urban Development, February 2006.
DRAFT: Springfield Housing Needs Analysis
ECONorthwest
December 2009
Page 47
Attachment 1-55
.
.
.
Exhibit A-56
The data illustrate what more detailed research has shown and what most
people understand intuitively: life cycle and housing choice interact in ways that
are predictable in the aggregate; age of the household head is correlated with
household size and income; household size and age of household head affect
housing preferences; income affects the ability of a household to afford a
preferred housing type. The connection between socioeconomic and demographic
factors, on the one hand, and housing choice, on the other, is often described
informally by giving names to households with certain combinations of
characteristics: the "traditional family," the "never marrieds," the "dinks" (dual-
income, no kids), the "empty nesters."19 Thus, simply looking at the long wave of
demographic trends can provide good information for estimating future housing
demand.
Thus, one is ultimately left with the need to make a qualitative assessment of
the future housing market. Following is a discussion of how demographic and
housing trends are likely to affect housing in Springfield for the next 20-years:
. On average, future housing will look a lot like past housing. That is the
assumption that underlies any trend forecast, and one that allows some
quantification of the composition of demand for new housing. As a first
approximation, the next five years, and maybe the first 10 years, of
residential growth will look a lot like the last five years.
· If the future differs from the past, it is likely to move in the direction (on
average) of smaller units and more diverse housing types. Most of the
evidence suggests that the bulk of the change will be in the direction of
smaller average house and lot sizes for single-family housing. In
summary, smaller households, an aging population, increasing housing
costs, and other variables are factors that support the conclusion of smaller
and less expensive units and a broader array of housing choices.
· No amount of analysis is likely to make the long-run future any more
certain: the purpose of the housingforecasting in this study is to get an
approximate idea about the long run so policy choices can be made today.
It is axiomatic among economic forecasters that any economic forecast
more than three (or at most five) years out is highly speculative. At one
year one is protected from being disastrously wrong by the shear inertia of
the economic machine. But a variety of factors or events could cause
growth forecasts to be substantially different.
19 See Planningfor Residential Growth: A Workbookfor Oregon's Urban Areas (June 1997).
Page 48
ECONorthwest
December 2009
DRAFT: Springfield Housing Needs Analysis
Attachment 1-56
Exhibit A-57
.
STEP 4: DETERMINE THE TYPES OF HOUSING THAT ARE LIKELY TO BE
AFFORDABLE TO THE PROJECTED POPULATION BASED ON HOUSEHOLD
INCOME
Step four of the housing needs assessment results in an estimate of need for
housing by income and housing type. This requires some estimate of the income
distribution of future households in the community. ECO developed these
estimates based on estimated incomes of households that live in Springfield.
INCOME AND AFFORDABILlTY OF HOUSING
This section summarizes regional and local income trends and housing cost
trends. Income is one of the key determinants in housing choice and households'
ability to afford housing. A review of historical income and housing price trends
provides insights into the local and regional housing markets.
Table 5-18 shows a set of inflation adjusted income indicators for Eugene,
Springfield and Lane County. The results paint a mixed picture, but generally
suggest that income (by most measures) decreased during the I 980s, and
increased during the 1990s. Overall, median household and median family
incomes remained relatively flat during the 20-year period between 1979 and
1999.
The data show that the percentage of persons below the poverty level
increased in Springfield and Lane County, and decreased slightly in Eugene
between 1979 and 1999.
.
Table 5-18. Inflation adjusted income indicators (in 1999 dollars),
Eugene, Springfield and Lane County, 1979, 1989, and 1999
City
Eugene
Median HH income
Median Family income
Per Capita Income
% Persons Below Poverty Level
Springfield
Median HH income
Median Family income
Per Capita Income
% Persons Below Poverty Level
Lane County
Median HH income
Median Family income
Per Capita Income
% Persons Below Poverty Level
Source: U.S. Census.
Notes: All dollar amounts in 1999 dollars. 1979 income converted to 1999 dollars using 3.06
inflation factor. 1989 income converted to 1999 dollars using 1.35 inflation factor.
.
1979
$34,493
$46,960
$18,029
14.7%
$34,248
$38,981
$14.,676
15.2%
$37,521
$44,920
$16,837
12.8%
Year
1989
$34,248
$46,107
$18,746
17.0%
$29,608
$34,332
$13,800
16.5%
$34,112
$41,530
$16,970
14.5%
1999
$35,850
$48,527
$21,315
14.4%
$33,031
$38,399
$15,616
17.1%
$36,942
$45,111
$19,681
17.9%
DRAFT: Springfield Housing Needs Analysis
Page 49
ECONorthwest
Attachment 1-57
December 2009
Exhibit A-58
.
A typical standard used to determine housing affordability is that a household
should pay no more than 30% of its total monthly household income for housing,
including utilities. According to the U.S. Census, nearly 19,000 households in the
region-about one-third-paid more than 30% of their income for housing in
2000.
One way of exploring the issue of financial need is to review wage rates and
housing affordability. Table 5-19 shows an analysis of affordable housing wage
and rent gap for households in Springfield at different percentages of median
family income (MFI). The data are for a typical family of four. The results
indicate that a household must earn about $14.00 an hour to afford a two-bedroom
unit according to RUD's market rate rent estimate.
Table 5-19. Analysis of affordable housing wage and rent gap by HUD income
categories, Eugene-Springfield, 2007
.
$15,000 to $24,999
$25,000 to $34,999
$35,000 to $49,999
$50,000 to $74,999
Lane County MFI: $52,200
$75,000 to $99,999 1,066 6%
$100,000 to $149,999 573 3%
$150,000 or more 188 1%
Total 18,865 100%
Source: HUD, Oregon office; analysis by ECONorthwest
MFI: Median family income
3,254
2,870
3,625
3,476
17%
15%
19%
18%
$375 to $625
$625 to $875
$875 to $1,250
$1,250 to $1,875
$1,305
$1,875 to $2,450
$2,450 to $3,750
More than $3,750
$37,500 to $62,500
$62,500 to $87,500
$87,500 to $125,000
$125,000 to $187,500
$130,500
$187,500 to $245,000
$245,000 to $375,000
More than $375,000
Est. Est
Number Number
o! Owner of Renter Surplus
Units Units (Deficit) Notes
33 706 (1,501)
14 825 (735)
2007 HUD FMR studio: $478;
172 6,523 3,441 1 bdnn: $581; 2 bdnn: $654
1,019 959 (892) HUD FMR 2 bdnn: $735
4,791 152 1,318 HUD FMR 3 bdnn: $1028
2,938 42 (496)
Income Level
Less than $10,000
$10,000 to $14,999
Crude Estimate of
Number Affordable Monthly Affordable Purchase
of HH Percent Housing Cost Owner-Occupied Unit
2,240 12% $0 to $250 $0 to $25,000
1,574 8% $250 to $375 $25,000 to $37,000
495 9 (563)
133 0 (440)
56 0 (132)
9,650 9,215 0
The total amount a household spends on housing is referred to as cost burden.
Total housing expenses are generally defined to include payments and interest or
rent, utilities, and insurance. RUD guidelines indicate that households paying
more than 30% of their income on housing experience "cost burden" and
households paying more than 50% of their income on housing experience "severe
cost burden." Using cost burden as an indicator is consistent with the Goal 10
requirement of providing housing that is affordable to all households in a
community.
Table 5-20 shows housing costs as a percent of income by tenure for
Springfield households in 2000. The data show that about 26% of Springfield
households experienced cost burden in 2000. The rate was much higher for
homeowners (31 %) than for renters (18%). This finding is unusual for Oregon
cities-it is much more common for renters to experience higher rates of cost
burden.
.
Page 50
ECONorthwest
December 2009
DRAFT: Springfield Housing Needs Analysis
Attachment 1-58
.
.
.
Exhibit A-59
Table 5-20. Housing cost as a percentage of household income,
Springfield, 2000
Owners Renters Total
Percent of Income Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent
Lest than 20% 4,125 12% 11,965 64% 16,090 30%
20% - 24% 8,852 26% 1,238 7% 10,090 19%
25% - 29% 6,376 19% 1,018 5% 7,394 14%
30% - 34% 4,437 13% 989 5% 5,426 10%
35% - 49% 5,551 16% 1,338 7% 6,889 13%
50% or more 4,988 15% 2,036 11% 7,024 13%
Total 34,329 100% 18,584 100% 52,913 100%
Cost Burden 10,539 31% 3,374 18% 13,913 26%
Severe Cost Burden 4,988 15% 2,036 11% 7,024 13%
Source: 2000 Census
Table 5-21 shows a rough estimate of affordable housing cost and units by
income levels for Springfield in 2000. Several points should be kept in mind when
interpreting this data:
. Because all of the affordability guidelines are based on median family income,
they provide a rough estimate of financial need and may mask other barriers
to affordable housing such as move-in costs, competition for housing from
higher income households, and availability of suitable units. They also ignore
other important factors such as accumulated assets, purchasing housing as an
investment, and the effect of down payments and interest rates on housing
affordability .
· Households compete for housing in the marketplace. In other words,
affordable housing units are not necessarily available to low income
households. For example, if an area has a total of 50 dwelling units that are
affordable to households earning 30% of median family income, 50% of those
units may already be occupied by households that earn more than 30% of
median family income.
The data in Table 5-21 indicate that in 2000:
· About 20% of Springfield households could not afford a studio apartment
according to RUD's estimate of $478 as fair 'market rent;
· Approximately 45% of Springfield households could not afford a two-
bedroom apartment at HUD's fair market rent level of$735;
· A household earning median family income ($52,200) could afford a
home valued up to about $130,500.
DRAFT: Springfield Housing Needs Analysis
ECONorthwest
December 2009
Page 51
Attachment 1-59
Exhibit A-60
.
Table 5-21. Rough estimate of housing affordability, Springfield, 2000
Est. Est.
Affordable Crude Estimate of Number of Number of
Monthly Housing Affordable Purchase Owner Renter
Percent Cost Owner-Occupied Unit Units Units
11.9% $0 to $250 $0 to $25,000 33 706
8.3% $250 to $375 $25,000 to $37,000 14 825
Income Level
Number
ofHH
2,240
1,574
SurpluS
(Deficit)
-1,501
-735
Notes
Less than $10,000
$10,000 to $14,999
$15,000 to $24,999 3,254 17.3% $375 to $625 $37,500 to $62,500
$25,000 to $34,999 2,870 15.2% $625 to $875 $62,500 to $87,500
$35,000 to $49,999 3,625 19.2% $875 to $1,250 $87,500 to $125,000
$50,000 to $74,999 3,476 18.4% $1,250 to $1,875 $125,000 to $187,500
Lane County MFI: $52,200 $1,305 $130,500
$75,000 to $99,999 1,066 5.7% $1,875 to $2,450 $187,500 to $245,000 495 9 -563
$100,000 to $149,999 573 3.0% $2,450 to $3,750 $245,000 to $375,000 133 0 -440
$150,000 or more 188 1.0% More than $3,750 More than $375,000 56 0 -132
Total 18,866 100.0% 9,651 9,215 0
Sources: 2000 Census, HUD Section 8 Income Limits, HUD Fair Market Rent. Based on Oregon Housing & Community
Services. Housing Strategies Workbook: Your Guide to Local Affordable Housing Initiatives, 1993.
Notes: FMR-Fair market rent
172
1,019
4,791
2,939
6,523
959
152
42
3,441
-893
1,318
-495
2007 HUD FMR studio: $478;
1 bdrm: $581; 2 bdrm: $654
HUD FMR 2 bdrm: $735
HUD FMR 3 bdrm: $1028
The conclusion based on the data presented in Table 5-21 is that in 2000
Springfield had a significant deficit of more than 2,200 affordable housing units
for households that earn less than $15,000 annually. Housing prices have
increased significantly in the past five years; the affordability gap for lower
income households has probably increased considerably. The next section
examines changes in housing cost since 2000.
.
Changes in housing cost
According to the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, the average
sales price of a single-family home in the Eugene-Springfield MSA increased
229% between 2000 and 2006. A key concern expressed by the City was that the
housing needs analysis and runs of the HCS housing needs model reflect recent
trends in the regional housing market. To quantify these trends, ECO analyzed
data from two sources: (1) sales data from the Lane County Assessor; and (2)
rental data from Duncan & Brown, an Eugene-based real estate analysis firm that
conducts rent surveys for the Metropolitan Region.
The sales database provided to ECO by the City of Springfield included
34,680 property sales.2o For purposes of comparison, the database included
Creswell, Cottage Grove, Eugene, Junction City, Springfield, and Veneta.
Table 5-22 shows sales prices for single-family dwellings for Lane County
and Springfield between 1999 and 2006. Table 5-22 shows that Springfield
median sales prices have been lower than median sales prices in Lane County
over the entire time period. Median sales prices also increased at a slower rate in
Springfield; percent change in median sales prices between 1999 and 2006 for
Lane County was 73%; in Springfield it was 64%. Sales prices for single-family
dwellings peaked in 2007 and had declined to about $175,000 by the first quarter
of 2009.
.
20 The sales data was obtained through queries of the Regional Land Information Database (www.rlid.org).
Page 52
ECONorthwest
December 2009
DRAFT: Springfield Housing Needs Analysis
Attachment 1-60
Exhibit A-61
.
Table 5-22. Sales price for single-family dwellings, Lane County and
Springfield, 1999-2006
Lane County Springfield
Average Median Average Median
Sales Sales Sales Sales
Year # of Sales Price Price # of Sales Price Price
1999 3,940 140,564 127,900 843 118,520 112,745
2000 3,171 144,142 129,900 687 119,152 112,750
2001 3,808 149,252 133,000 881 122,700 118,450
2002 4,291 156,603 138,165 886 129,432 121,900
2003 4,761 168,780 149,000 1,042 135,719 128,000
2004 5,092 183,497 162,500 1,112 149,082 137,900
2005 5,326 222,835 194,000 1,157 177,260 165,000
2006 4,291 249,438 221,000 973 201,000 185,000
Change 1999-2006
Number 351 108,874 93,100 130 82,480 72,255
Percent 9% 77% 73% 15% 70% 64%
Source: RLlD, Analysis by ECONorthwest
.
Table 5-23 shows the average and median sales prices for single-family
dwellings in selected Lane County cities between 1999 and 2006. Table 5-23
shows that median sales prices increased throughout the county during this period.
In 2006, the highest median sales prices were in Eugene, the rest of the county,
and Creswell. Lowest median sales prices in 2006 were in Springfield and
Junction City. Prices increased the most in Creswell (87%) and Eugene (80%).
Prices increased the least in Springfield (64%) and Junction City (67%).
Table 5-23. Average and median sales price, single-family dwellings, Lane County
cities, 1999-2006
Year Increase (1999-2006)
City 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Dollars Percent
Median Sales Price
Cottage GrOl.e 112,000 103,500 109,750 110,000 120,000 128,000 157,000 195,000 83,000 74%
Creswell 112,500 118,000 109,000 121,750 125,000 142,500 180,750 210,500 98,000 87%
Eugene 136,900 140,000 143,500 149,900 163,000 179,900 215,000 247,000 110,100 80%
Junction City 113,250 112,500 115,150 119,638 120,750 138,000 162,000 189,000 75,750 67%
Springfield 112,745 112,750 118,450 121,900 128,000 137,900 165,000 185,000 72,255 64%
Veneta 115,250 110,000 112,000 119,950 126,500 139,500 173,635 200,000 84,750 74%
Rest of County 111,000 108,750 110,000 121,250 127,750 160,000 212,500 216,000 105,000 95%
Average Sales Price
Cottage Grol.e 118,112 106,767 113,150 116,152 122,298 134,854 168,828 193,157 75,045 64%
Creswell 115,662 121,697 114,497 130,475 129,891 162,095 200,008 223,307 107,645 93%
Eugene 152,872 159,920 165,366 173,351 188,484 202,750 246,272 275,674 122,802 80%
Junction City 120,218 116,282 120,164 131,761 130,170 149,294 169,287 191,574 71,356 59%
Springfield 118,520 119,152 122,700 129,432 135,719 149,082 177,260 201,000 82,480 70%
Veneta 121,039 111,754 111,961 118,976 134,297 148,313 178,916 213,220 92,181 76%
Rest of County 124,741 120,724 136,013 134,572 152,744 181,894 234,178 246,311 121,570 97%
Source: RLlD, Analysis by ECONorthwest
.
DRAFT: Springfield Housing Needs Analysis ECONorthwest December 2009 Page 53
Attachment 1-61
.
.
.
Exhibit A-62
Table 5-24 shows the median contract rent for Lane County cities. The highest
median contract rents from the 2000 Census were in Eugene and Springfield. The
lowest median contract rents were in Oakridge and Creswell.
Table 5-24. Median contract rent,
Lane County cities, 1999
Location Rent
Eugene $ 566
Springfield $ 518
Veneta $ 502
Coburg $ 498
Junction City $ 491
Cottage Grove $ 456
Creswell $ 417
Oakridge $ 384
Source: US Census 2000
Vacancy rates have generally decreased in Eugene-Springfield rental market
since 2000. Vacancy rates for studio, 1- and 2-bedroom apartments all decreased
from between 4.1-4.7% to between 1.1-2.1 % between fall 2000 and 2006.
Apartment rents have remained relatively stable, increasing between 4% and 10%
between 2000 and 2005.21
Table 5-25 shows average monthly cost of rental units in Springfield for the
2000 to 2005 period. Rental units were separated into two categories: (1) units
built prior to 1988 and (2) units built since 1988. The majority of Springfield's
units were built prior to 1988.
Rents increased based on the number of bedrooms. Rents ranged from $392
for a studio unit in 2000 to $646 for a three-bedroom unit in 2004. Rents for units
with a similar number of bedrooms were higher for newer units. For instance, the
average rental cost of a two-bedroom unit built prior to 1988 was $529 compared
to $620 for a two-bedroom unit built since 1988, a difference of $91 per month.
Over the six-year period, rents increased by between $19 and $56 per month.
Monthly rental costs of two-bedroom units had the largest increases, $34 per
month for older units and $56 per month for newer units. Rent for studio, one-
bedroom, and three-bedroom units increased all increased by about $20 per
month.
21 Duncan & Brown Apartment Report. Fall 2000-Fall 2006. Daniel J. Puffinburger, Corey S. Dingman, Duncan & Brown Real Estate
Analysts
Page 54
DRAFT: Springfield Housing Needs Analysis
ECONorthwest
December 2009
Attachment 1-62
Exhibit A-63
.
Table 5-25. Average rental monthly costs by unit type, Springfield,
2000 to 2005
Units Built Prior to 1988 Units Built Since 1988
One Two Three One Two Three
Year Studio Bedroom Bedrooms Bedrooms Studio Bedroom Bedrooms Bedrooms
2000 $392 $428 $514 $594 -- - $588 -
2001 $394 $423 $523 $601 -- - $583 --
2002 $389 $431 $526 $619 -- $575 $615 --
2003 $386 $438 $531 $600 $550 $550 $642 --
2004 $388 $437 $533 $633 -- $575 $646 --
2005 $414 $447 $548 $615 -- $575 $644 --
Change 2000 to 2005
Amount $22
Percent 5.6%
AAGR 1.10%
$19
4.4%
0.87%
$34
6.6%
1.29%
$21
3.5%
0.70%
$56
9.5%
1.84%
Source: Duncan & Brown Apartment Rent Report, 2000 to 2005; Calculations by ECONorthwest
Note: Blank values indicate that there were too few units in the survey to include in the summary.
Table 5-26 shows a comparison of change in rental costs during the 2000 to
2005 period for Springfield and Eugene. Rental costs were higher in Eugene than
in Springfield. The difference in rental costs for all units, regardless when they
were built, ranged from $39 per month for a studio unit to $211 per month for a
three-bedroom unit, increasing with the number of bedrooms.
.
The difference in average rental costs was greater for newer and larger units.
Newer one-bedroom units cost an average of$74 per month more to rent in
Eugene than Springfield. Newer two-bedroom units cost an average of $166 more
to rent in Eugene than Springfield.
Table 5-26. Comparison of average rental monthly costs by unit type,
Springfield and Eugene, 2000 to 2005
One Two Three
Studio Bedroom Bedrooms Bedrooms
Springfield
Built prior to 1988 $394 $434 $529 $610
Built since 1988 $569 $620
All rentals $416 $488 $574 $610
Eugene
Built prior to 1988 $400 $483 $611 $719
Built since 1988 $623 $645 $786 $924
All rentals $456 $564 $699 $822
Difference (Eugene minus Springfield)
Built prior to 1988 $6 $49 $82 $109
Built since 1988 $76 $166
All rentals $40 $74 $124 $211
Source: Duncan & Brown Apartment Rent Report, 2000 to 2005; Calculations by ECONorthwest
Note: Blank values indicate that there were too few units in the survey to include in the summary.
.
Figure 5-4 shows a comparison of change in average rental costs and average
sales price in Springfield between 2000 and 2005. Over the five-year period
average sales price increased by 46%, compared to a 7% change in average rental
DRAFT: Springfield Housing Needs Analysis
ECONorthwest
December 2009
Page 55
Attachment 1-63
1----
Exhibit A-64
.
costs. The greatest increases in average sales price occurred since 2003, while
average rental costs remained relatively flat since 2003.
Since 2005, average sales prices have continued increasing at a faster rate than
average rental costs. The increase in average sales price in Springfield between
2005 and 2006 was about 13%. According to the Fall 2006 Duncan & Brown
Apartment Report, changes in average rental costs in Springfield were
comparable to increases in recent years.22
Figure 5-4. Comparison of annual change in average rental costs and
average sales price, Springfield, 2000 to 2005
20.0%
18.0%
16.0%
Q) 14.0%
l:l'l
c
ca
.c 12.0%
0
...
c 10.0%
Q)
(J
..
Q) 8.0%
ll..
iii 6.0%
:l
c
c 4.0%
. <(
2.0%
0.0%
2001
2002
2003
Year
2004
2005
-Average Rental Costs ~ Average Sales Price
Source: Duncan & Brown Apartment Rent Report, 2000 to 2005; RUD; Calculations by
ECONorthwest
The analysis of housing starts, sales prices, and rents presented in this section
leads us to several conclusions:
· The housing market peaked in 2007 and sales prices declined in 2008 and
the first quarter of2009. Springfield single-family housing starts have
declined since 2003. The overall number of permits for new single-family
residences issued regionwide has remained remarkably stable;
.
22 The Fall 2006 Duncan & Brown Apartment Report did not present average rent by unit type like they did in previous reports. As a result,
we were not able to include 2006 average rents in this analysis.
Page 56
ECONorthwest
December 2009
DRAFT: Springfield Housing Needs Analysis
Attachment 1-64
. Exhibit A-65
.
. New construction costs are higher than regional averages. Springfield's
permit valuations and construction costs have generally been on or near
the middle or towards the high end compared with selected Lane County
cities;
. Price increases are lower than in other cities. Springfield's median sales
prices for single-family dwellings have increased the smallest amount
compared with selected Lane County cities;
. Single-family development has dominated new construction. Multi-family
dwelling units do not make up a high percentage of units constructed in
Springfield and other selected Lane County cities;
. Sales prices increased much faster than rental rates. Over the five-year
period between 2000 and 2005 average sales price increased by 46%,
compared to a 7% change in average rental costs.
.
The implications of the data shown above are that ownership costs increased
much faster than rents and incomes, but declined as the housing bubble burst in
2008. Table 5-27 underscores this trend for the Eugene-Springfield MSA.2J
Between 1990 and 2000, incomes increased about 46% while median owner value
increased 115%. Rents increased 44%--about the same as incomes. Since 2000,
the data show housing costs have increased faster than incomes. The owner values
include all units in the MSA; the sales data presented earlier in this section
suggest that owner costs have increased much faster than the Census data suggest.
Finally, the results show that the median owner value was 2.6 times median
household income-a figure that increased to 4.7 by 2005.
Table 5-27. Comparison of income, housing value, and gross rent,
. Eugene-Springfield MSA, 1990, 2000, and 2005
Indicator
Median HH Income
Median Family Income
Median Owner Value
Median Gross Rent
Percent of Units Owned
Housing Value/Income
Median HH Income 2.6 3.8 4.7
Median Family Income 2.1 3.1 3.5
Source: U.S. Census of Population and Housing, 1990 and 2000; American Community Survey,
2005
1990
$25,268
$30,763
$65,600
$418
61%
2000
$36,942
$45,111
$141,000
$604
62%
Change
1990-2000 2000-2005
2005
$37,290
$49,555
$173,600
$683
63%
46%
47%
115%
44%
1%
10%
23%
13%
In summary, the data indicate that homeownership is increasingly expensive
in Springfield and that the cost of homeownership is prohibitive for low- and
.
23 2005 data from the American Community Survey is not available for Springfield.
DRAFT: Springfield Housing Needs Analysis
ECONorthwest
December 2009
Page 57
Attachment 1-65
Exhibit A-66
.
moderate-income households. The data indicate that homeownership rates in the
Metropolitan area and Springfield have increased, despite the rapid increase in
sales prices. This is probably due in large part to a much broader array of
financing options available to households than existed previously.
STEP 5: ESTIMATE THE NUMBER OF ADDITIONAL NEEDED UNITS BY STRUCTURE
TYPE AND TENURE24
Step five of the housing needs assessment results in an estimate of need for
housing by income and housing type. This requires some estimate of the income
distribution of future households in the community. ECO developed these
estimates based on (1) secondary data from the Census, and (2) analysis by
ECONorthwest.
The next step in the analysis is to relate income levels to tenure and structure
type. Table 4-3 showed tenure by structure type from the 2000 Census. Table 5-
28 shows an estimate of needed housing by st~cture type and tenure for the 2010-
2030 planning period. The housing needs analysis suggests that a higher
percentage of multifamily units will be needed, thus, the housing mix changes
from approximately 63% single-family/37% multifamily during the 1999-July
2008 period to 60% single-family/40% multifamily.25 The housing needs analysis
also suggests the City will see a higher rate of homeownership in the future. Thus,
the tenure split is increased from 54% owner-occupied/46% renter occupied to
57% owner-occupied/43% renter occupied.
.
Table 5-28. Estimate of needed dwelling units by type and tenure,
Springfield, 2010-2030
Owner-Occupied Renter-Occupied Total
Housing Type New DU Percent New DU Percent New DU Percent
Needed Units, 2010-2030
Single-family types
Single-family detached 2,756 81% 353 14% 3,109 52%
Manufactured in Parks 54 2% 6 0% 60 1%
Single-family attached 343 10% 75 3% 419 7%
Subtotal 3,153 92% 435 17% 3,587 60%
Multi-family
Multifamily 256 8% 2,136 83% 2,392 40%
Subtotal 256 8% 2,136 83% 2,392 40%
Total 3,409 100% 2,571 100% 5,980 100%
.
24 Note: Manufactured dwellings are a permitted use in all residential zones that allow 10 or fewer dwellings per net buildable acre. As a
result, Springfield is not required to estimate the need for manufactured dwellings on individual lots per OAR 660-024-0040 (7) (c).
25 Single-family attached dwellings typically achieve densities closer to multifamily housing types. Ifthese higher density housing types are
included with multifamily, the housing mix is 53% lower density, and 47% higher density types.
Page 58
ECONorthwest
December 2009
DRAFT: Springfield Housing Needs Analysis
Attachment 1-66
.
.
.
Exhibit A-67
The analysis (Table 5-28) indicated that Springfield needs 5,980 new dwelling
units for the 2010-2030 period. The next step in estimating units by structure type
is to evaluate income as it relates to housing affordability. Table 5-29 shows an
estimate of needed dwelling units by income level for the 2010-2030 period. The
analysis uses market segments consistent with HUD income level categories. The
analysis shows that about 49% of households in Springfield could be considered
high or upper-middle income in 2007 and that about 49% of the housing need in
the 2010-2030 period will derive from households in these categories.
Table 5-29. Estimate of needed dwelling units by income level,
Springfield, 2010-2030
Market Segment
by Income
High (120% or
more of MFI)
Financially Attainable Products
Number of Percent of Owner- Renter-
Households Households occupied occupied
1,822 30% All housing All housing
types; higher types; higher
prices prices
1,141 19% All housing All housing
types; lower types; lower
values values
1,296 22% Manufactured on Single-family
lots; single- attached;
family attached; detached;
duplexes manufactured on
lots; apartments
Primarily
New Housing
Primarily
Used
Housing
Income
ra nge
$68,640 or
more
1
Upper Middle (80%- $45,760 to
120% of MFI) $68,640
Lower Middle (50%- $28,600 to
80% of MFI $45,760
Low (30%-50% or
less of MFI)
$17,160 to
$28,600
Apartments;
manufactured in
parks; duplexes
Apartments; new
and used
gOl.ernment
assisted housing
13%
756
Manufactured in
parks
Very Low (Less
than 30% of MFI)
Less than
$17,160
965
16%
None
Source: ECONorthwest
STEP 6: DETERMINE THE NEEDED DENSITY RANGE FOR EACH PLAN
DESIGNATION AND THE AVERAGE NEEDED NET DENSITY FOR ALL
DESIGNATIONS
This section summarizes the forecast of needed housing units in Springfield
for the period 2010-2030. Table 5-30 shows the forecast of needed housing units
in Springfield for the period 2010-2030. Springfield makes the following findings
in support of the density assumptions used in Table 5-30:
· Springfield had an average residential density of 6.6 dwelling units per net
acre or about 6,600 square feet of land per dwelling unit between 1999 and
2008 (Table 4-5). Average single-family detached density was 5.4 units
per net acre. Manufactured homes averaged 4.6 dwelling units per net
DRAFT: Springfield Housing Needs Analysis
ECONorthwest
December 2009
Page 59
Attachment 1-67
.
.
.
Exhibit A-68
acre, while all multifamily housing types averaged 11.1 dwelling units per
net acre.
National homeownership rates increased to nearly 70% in 2006 before
declining as the housing bubble burst. The homeownership rate in
Springfield in 2000 was considerably lower at 54%. It is the policy of the
City to provide homeownership opportunities to Springfield residents.
. National trends are towards larger units (both single-family and
multifamily) on smaller lots.
.
. More than 28% of dwelling units in Springfield in 2000 were multifamily
types.
. The "needed" density for single-family dwellings in the housing needs
analysis is 5.5 dwelling units per net acre. This assumption is a slight
increase overthe historical density of 5.4 dwellings per net acre for single-
family detached units. Increasing the average density of single-family
detached dwellings should result in the provision of more affordable
single-family detached units as a result of decreased lot sizes.
. Topography, lot configurations, and other factors typically reduce land use
efficiency. The achieved density may be lower for single-family detached
dwellings in areas with slopes.
· The City assumes an average multifamily density of 18.0 dwellings per net
acre or a land area of about 2,420 square feet per dwelling unit. This
assumption is an increase of about 62% over historical density of II. I
dwellings per net acre for all multifamily types.
· The City assumes an average density for all housing types of7.9 dwelling
units per net acre. This is an increase of about 20% over the historical
density of 6.6 dwelling units per net acre.
In summary, the City assumes that average densities will increase
significantly (by about 20% over average historical densities) during the planning
period, that ownership rates will increase, and that an increasing percentage of
households will choose single-family attached housing types. These assumptions
are consistent with the housing needs analysis presented in this chapter. These
findings support the City's overall density assumption of7.9 dwelling unit per net
acre.
The forecast indicates that Springfield will need about 752 net residential
acres, or about 927 gross residential acres to accommodate new housing between
2010 and 2030. The forecast results in an average residential density of7.9
dwelling units per net residential acre and of 6.3 dwelling units per gross
residential acre. This represents a 20% increase in density over the historical
average of 6.6 dwelling units per net acre.
Page 60
ECONorthwest
December 2009
DRAFT: Springfield Housing Needs Analysis
Attachment 1-68
Exhibit A-69
Table 5-30. Forecast of new dwelling units and land needed by type,
. Springfield 2010-2030
Density Net to Gross Density
(DUlnet Net Res. Gross Res. (DUlgross
Housing Type New DU Pe rce nt res ac) Acres Factor Acres res ac)
Needed Units, 2010-2030
Single-family types
Single-family detached 3,109 52% 5.5 565 20% 707 4.4
Manufactured in parks 60 1% 8.0 7 18% 9 6.6
Single-family attached 419 7% 9.0 47 15% 55 7.7
Subtotal 3,588 60% 5.8 619 770 4.7
Multi-family
Multifamily 2,392 40% 18.0 133 15% 156 15.3
Subtotal 2,392 40% 18.0 133 156 15.3
Total 5,980 100% 7.9 752 927 6.5
Source: ECONorthwest
.
Table 5-31 provides an allocation of housing units by Springfield's three
residential plan designations. Dwelling units were allocated to plan designations
based, in part, on historic development trends within each plan designation and on
the type of development allowed in each plan destination. Table 5-31 also
provides an estimate of the gross acres required in each designation to
accommodate needed housing units for the 2010-2030 period. The acreages are
based on the gross density assumptions shown in Table 5-30. The residential land
needs presented in Table 5-31 may change based on policy decisions related to
land use efficiency measures, which may result in increased or decreased land
need.
Based on the housing needs analysis, dwellings have been allocated by plan
designation and type:
. The overall needed housing mix is 60% single-family (including
manufactured and single-family attached units) and 40% multifamily.
· The density assumptions increase by plan designations as shown in Table
5-30.
.
· Fifty-eight percent of needed dwelling units will locate in the Low Density
residential designation, which allows single-family detached and
manufactured homes. This designation also allows duplex, single-family
attached, and some multifamily dwellings in conjunction with
discretionary review.
· Thirty percent of needed dwellings will locate in the Medium Density
residential designation, which allows single-family detached, single-
family attached, manufactured home parks, townhomes, duplexes, and
multifamily dwellings.
. Twelve percent of needed dwelling units will locate in High Density or
Mixed-Use residential designations, which allow single-family detached,
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Attachment 1-69
.
.
.
Exhibit A-70
townhomes, manufactured (single detached and manufactured home
parks), duplexes, and multifamily.
. Manufactured units in parks will locate in the Low-Density plan
designation.
Table 5-31. Allocation of needed housing units by plan designation,
Springfield 2010-2030
Plan Designation
High Densityl
Low Density Medium Density Mixed-Use Total
Housing Type DU Gross Ac DU Gross Ac DU Gross Ac DU Gross Ac
Single-family
Single-family detached 3,229 734 0 - 0 - 3,229 734
Manufactured in parks 60 9 0 - 0 - 60 9
Single-family attached 179 23 299 39 0 - 478 63
Subtotal 3,468 766 299 39 0 - 3.767 806
Multi-family
Multi-family 0 - 1 ,495 109 718 36 2,213 145
Subtotal 0 - 1 ,495 109 718 36 2,213 145
Total 3,468 766 1,794 148 718 36 5,980 950
Percent of Acres and Units
Single-family
Single-family detached 54%" 77% 0%" 0% 0%" 0% 54% 77%
Manufactured in parks 1%" 1% 0%" 0% 0%" 0% 1% 1%
Single-family attached 3%" 2% 5%" 4% 0%" 0% 8% 7%
Subtotal 58%" 81% 5%" 4% 0%" 0% 63% 85%
Multi-family
Multi-family 0%" 0% 25%" 11% 12%" 4% 37% 15%
Subtotal 0%" 0% 25%" 11% 12% " 4% 37% 15%
Total 58%" 81% 30%" 16% 12%" 4% 100% 100%
Source: ECONorthwest
In addition to the housing types shown in Table 5-31, Springfield needs to
plan for additional group quarters. The analysis assumes the City will add 145
persons in group quarters between 2010 and 2012.The City will need to add a
similar number of group quarter units during this period. Assuming that group
quarters achieve densities comparable to multifamily units, the City will need
approximately nine gross residential acres for these units (145 divided by 15.3
units per gross acre). The majority of these units will probably be residential care
facilities which are permitted as a discretionary use in the Low Density residential
designation and a special use in the Medium- and High-Density designations.
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Attachment 1-70
.
.
.
Exhibit A-71
Chapter 6
Comparison of
Sulm!Y and Demand
This chapter summarizes from data and analysis presented in Chapters 2
through 5 to compare "demonstrated need" for vacant buildable land with the
supply of such land currently within the Springfield UGB and city limits. Chapter
2 described the policy framework, Chapter 3 described land supply, Chapter 4
described historical development patterns, and Chapter 5 described residential
land needs.
The following section estimates land needed for other uses; the chapter
concludes with a comparison of land supply and land demand for the 20 10-2030
time period.
TOTAL RESIDENTIAL LAND NEED, 2010-2030
This section estimates total residential land need for the period between 2010
and 2030. In additional to land needed for new residential units, it .estimates land
needed for parks, public facilities, and other semi-public uses to arrive at an
estimate of total need for land designated for residential purposes.
LAND NEEDED FOR NEW RESIDENTIAL DWELLING UNITS
Chapter 5 presented estimates of land needed for new residential dwellings
(see Tables 5-30 and 5-31). Table 6-1 summarizes land needed for new housing
by plan designation for the 2010-2030 period. Note that group quarters is a
separate category that can locate in any plan designation.
,
Table 6-1. Land needed for new housing by plan
designation, Springfield UGB, 2010-2030 .
Plan Designation DU Gross Ac
Low-Density Residential 3,468 766
Medium-Density Residential 1,794 148
High-Density Residential/Mixed-Use 718 36
Group Quarters 145 9
Total 6,125 959
Source: Table 5-31
LAND NEEDED FOR OTHER USES
Cities need to provide land for uses other than housing and employment.
Public and semi-public facilities such as schools, hospitals, governments, utilities,
churches, parks, and other non-profit organizations will expand as population
increases. Many communities have specific standards for parks. School districts
typically develop population projections to forecast attendance and need for
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Attachment 1-71
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.
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Exhibit A-72
additional facilities. All of these uses will potentially require additional land as a
city grows.
This section considers other uses that consume land and must be included in
land demand estimates. Demand for these lands largely occurs independent of
market forces. Many can be directly correlated to population growth. For the
purpose of estimating land needed for other uses, these lands are classified into
three categories:
. Lands needed for public operations and facilities. This includes lands for
city offices and maintenance facilities, schools, state facilities, substations,
and other related public facilities. Land needs are estimated using acres
per 1,000 persons for all lands of these types.
· Lands needed for parks and open space. The estimates use a parkland
standard of 14 acres per 1,000 persons based on the level of service
standard established in the Willamalane Park and Recreation
Comprehensive Plan, which projected need for parkland in Sprin~field
between 2002 and 2022.
· Lands needed for semi-public uses. This includes hospitals, churches, non-
profit organizations, and related semi-public uses. The analysis includes
land need assumptions using acres per 1,000 persons for all lands of these
types.
Table 6-2 shows land in public and semi-public uses by type. The data show a
total of 1,636 acres in public and semi public uses in the Springfield UGB in
2009. This equates to 24.8 acres per 1,000 persons.
Table 6-2. Summary of public and semi-public land need by type,
Springfield UGB, 2010-2030
Type of Use
Govemment
Utilities
Parks
Schools
Church/Charities/Other
Total
Acres
581
134
563
277
81
1,636
Acres /
1000
Persons
8.8
2.0
8.5
4.2
1.2
24.7
Assumed
Need
(Ac/1000
Pe rsons)
3.0
2.0
14.0
0.9
1.2
21.1
Estimated
Acres 2010.
2030
44
30
357
14
18
463
Source: City of Springfield GIS data; analysis by ECONorthwest
Table 6-2 shows that there will be an additional need of about 463 acres of
land for all new public and semi-public uses or 21.1 acres per 1,000 people
between 2010 and 2030. The information in Table 6-1 is based on the following
assumptions:
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Attachment 1-72
Exhibit A-73
.
· Government land in 2007 includes a 271-acre site that is owned by the
Bureau of Land Management (BLM) and the liS-acre Booth-Kelly
mixed-use site. Not including these sites, Springfield has 195 acres of
government land or 3.0 acres per 1,000 people. The assumed land need
for 2010 to 2030 is 3.0 acres per 1,000 people, assuming that the
City's land need will not include more sites like the BLM or Booth-
Kelly site.
. Park land needs are based on the level-of-service established in
Willamalane's parks plan of 14 acres per 1,000 persons, which will
require 207 new acres of parkland. In addition, park land includes need
for 150 acres of parkland for need identified in the Park and
Recreation Comprehensive Plan and to serve residents that moved to
Springfield between 2002 and 2008.26
· School land needs are based on the fact that the Springfield School
District will need to add one 14 acre site in the Jasper-Natron area over
the planning period. 27 The land need of 0.9 acres per 1,000 persons was
based on population growth and the District's need for one 14 acre
site.
. Land needs for utilities, recreation, and churches/charities/other are
based on maintaining the same ratio of acre to population as currently
exists for these land uses.
BUILDABLE LAND INVENTORY AND CAPACITY
.
The capacity of residential land is measured in dwelling units and is
dependent on densities allowed in specific zones as well as redevelopment
potential. In short, land capacity is a function of buildable land and density.
The buildable lands inventory indicates that Springfield has about 1,447 acres
of vacant and partially-vacant residential land and an additional 21 acres in the
Glenwood mixed-use refinement plan area (these acres were included in the
commercial and industrial lands inventory and are included here only for the
purpose of estimating residential capacity). 28 This yields a total of 1,468 buildable
acres.
26 According to Greg Hyde, the Planning and Development Manager with the Willamalane Park & Recreation District, Springfield has
acquired 37 acres of park land between 2002 and 2008. The Park and Recreation Comprehensive Plan identified a deficit of 130 acres to
serve population in 2002 (at the 14 acres per 1,000 person level of service). That deficit was reduced to 93 acres with the addition of the 37
acres of parkland. In addition, Springfield's population grew by 4,095 people between 2002 and 2008, resulting in an additional need for 57
acres of parkland. Together, Springfield has a need for 150 acres of parkland to serve the City's population in 2008 at the 14 acres per
1,000 person level of service.
27 According to Jeff DeFranco, the Springfield Public Schools Director of Communications and Facilities, the school district has one 14-
acre site that will be sold (the Rainbow (Chase) Property). The City owns a 65-acre site in East Springfield has no services. The District
owns a IS-acre site in the Clear Water area that is outside of the UGB, which will be developed when there is more residential development
in the area.
.
28 Capacity in the Glenwood mixed-use area was calculated as follows: 21 buildable acres (45% of the 47-acre site; the policy requires 30%
to 60% of the site be used for housing) multiplied by 15 dwelling units per gross acre equals 317 dwelling units, minus 47 dwelling units
that would be displaced from the River Bank Mobile Home Park equals 270 dwelling units.
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Attachment 1-73
Exhibit A-74
.
Table 6-3 provides an estimate of how much housing could be accommodated
by those lands based on the needed densities identified in Table 5-30 after making
deductions for development constraints. It includes capacity for areas with
approved master plans that were not included in the acreage estimates. This
includes Marcola Meadows (518 dwellings in the MDR designation) and
RiverBend (730 dwellings in the MDR designation). Total residential capacity
includes capacity for redevelopment, which is assumed as 5% of needed new
dwellings, or 299 dwellings. The basis for this assumption is presented in Chapter
4. Table 6-3 shows that Springfield has capacity for 9,021 dwelling units within
the existing U GB.
Table 6-3. Estimated residential development capacity,
Springfield UGB, 2009
.
Residential
Buildable Capacity
Plan Designation Acres (DU)
Low Density Residential 824 5,379
Medium Density Residential 95 2,718
High Density Residential 16 355
Mixed-Use (Glenwood) 21 270
Rede\elopment na 299
Total 956 9,021
Source: City of Springfield residential BLI; analysis by ECONorthwest
Note: Estimated residential development capacity includes sites with
approved master plans (RiverBend - 730 DU and Marcola Meadows - 518 DU.
All of this capacity is in the Medium Density Residential plan designation).
Percent
of
Capacity
60%
30%
4%
3%
3%
100%
COMPARISON AND CONCLUSIONS
Table 6-4 shows the capacity for residential development by plan designation.
It also shows an estimate oflands needed for other uses (e.g., parks, schools,
churches, etc.). ECO estimates Springfield will need 463 acres for other uses
during the 2010-2030 period.
The results lead to the following findings:
. Springfield has an overall surplus of residential land. The Springfield
UGB has enough land for 9,021 new dwelling units. The housing needs
forecast projects a need for 5,980 dwelling units and 145 group quarter
dwellings.
· The Low Density Residential designation has a surplus of approximately
72 gross acres.
· The Medium Density Residential designation has a surplus of
approximately 18 gross acres.
.
· The High Density Residential designation has a deficit of approximately
34 gross acres.
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Attachment 1-74
.
.
.
Exhibit A-75
. The total residential land surplus is 59 gross acres.
Table 6-4. Residential capacity for needed dwelling units by plan designation,
Springfield UGB, 2010-2030
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Housing Housing Total
Land Surplusl Surplusl
Surplusl Needed Need Deficit Other Deficit
Need Capacity Deficit Density (Gross (Gross Residential (Gross
Plan Designation (DU) (DU) (DU) (DUlGRA) Acres) Ac) Land Need Ac)
Low Density Residential 3,468 5,379 1,911 5 -422 422 347 75
Medium Density Residential 1,794 3,137 1,343 12 0 111 93 18
High Density Residential 718 505 -213 20 11 -11 23 -34
Total 5,980 9,021 3,041 0 -411 522 463 59
Source: ECONorthwest
Column Notes:
1. Plan designations
2. Needed dwellings by plan designation (table 5-30)
3. Capacity by plan designation (table 6-2); Note: MDR capacity includes capacity in master planned areas
(Glenwood, Marcola Meadows, Riverbend); MDR and HDR includes capacity for redevelopment.
4. Capacity (column 3) minus Need (column 2); Note: a positive number denotes enough capacity within the
existing UGB
5. Needed Gross Density (from bottom of page 5)
6. Total additional land needed (if a deficit exists). Equals -column 4 divided by column 5
7, Surplus/deficit gross acres (negatives mean a UGB expansion). Equals Column 4 divided by Column 5
8. Other residential land need (land needed for parks, etc)
9. Total surplus/deficit. EqualS column 7 minus column 8.
Note: Total Surplus/Deficit (column 9) adds to 344 acres due to rounding errors.
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Attachment 1-75
.
.
.
Exhibit A-76
Appendix A
Context for Assessing
Housing Needs
WHAT IS AFFORDABLE HOUSING?
The terms "affordable" and "low-income" housing are often used
interchangeably. These terms, however, have different meanings:
. Affordable housing refers to households' ability to find housing within
their financial means. Households that spend more than 30% of their
income on housing and certain utilities are considered to experience cost
burden. 29 As such, any household that pays more than 30% experiences
cost burden and does not have affordable housing. Thus, affordable
housing applies to all households in the community.
· Low-income housing refers to housing for "low-income" households.
HUD considers a household low-income if it earns 80% or less of median
family income. In short, low-income housing is targeted at households that
earn 80% or less of median family income.
These definitions mean that any household can experience cost burden and
that affordable housing applies to all households in an area. Low-income housing
targets low-income households. In other words, a community can have a housing
affordability problem that does not include only low-income households.
It is important to underscore the point that many households that experience
cost burden have jobs and are otherwise productive members of society. A
household earning 80% of median family income in Springfield earns about
$39,000 annually-{)r about $18.50 per hour for a full-time employee. The
maximum affordable purchase price for a household earning $39,000 annually is
about $120,000. Depending on household size, many of these households are
eligible for government housing assistance programs.
In summary, any household can face housing affordability problems. Because
they have more limited financial means, the incidence of cost burden is higher
among low-income households. Statewide planning Goal 10 requires cities to
adopt policies that encourage housing at price ranges commensurate with
incomes. In short, state land use policy does not distinguish between households
of different income levels and requires cities to adopt policies that encourage
housing for all households.
29 Cost burden is a concept used by HUD. Utilities included with housing cost include electricity, gas, and water, but do not include
telephone expenses.
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Attachment 1-76
Exhibit A-77
.
WHAT OBJECTIVES DO HOUSING POLICIES TYPICALLY TRY TO
ACHIEVE?
The Practice of State and Local PlanningO classifies goals that most
government housing programs address into four categories:
· Community life. From a community perspective, housing policy is
intended to provide and maintain safe, sanitary, and satisfactory housing
with efficiently and economically organized community facilities to
service it. In other words, housing should be coordinated with other
community and public, services. Although local policies do not always
articulate this, they are implicit in most local government operations.
Comprehensive plans, zoning, subdivision ordinances, building codes, and
capital improvement programs are techniques most cities use to manage
housing and its development. Local public facilities such as schools, fire
and police stations, parks, and roads are usually designed and coordinated
to meet demands created by housing development.
· Social and equity concerns. The key objective of social goals is to reduce
or eliminate housing inadequacies affecting the poor, those unable to find
suitable housing, and those discriminated against. In other words,
communities have an obligation to provide safe, satisfactory housing
opportunities to all households, at costs they can afford, without regard to
income, race, religion, national origin, family structure, or disability.
.
· Design and environmental quality. The location and design of housing
affect the natural environment, residents' quality of life, and the nature of
community life. The objectives of policies that address design and
environmental quality include neighborhood and housing designs that
meet: household needs, maintain quality of life, provide efficient use of
land and resources, reduce environmental impacts, and allow for the
establishment of social and civic life and institutions. Most communities
address these issues through local building codes, comprehensive land use
plans, and development codes.
· Stability of production. Housing is a factor in every community's
economy. The cyclical nature of housing markets, however, creates
uncertainties for investment, labor, and builders. The International City
Manager's Association suggests that local government policies should
address this issue-most do not. Moreover, external factors (e.g. interest
rates, cost of building materials, etc.) that bear upon local housing markets
tend to undermine the effectiveness of such policies.
Despite the various federal and state policies regulating housing, most housing
in the U.S. is produced by private industry and is privately owned. While the land
.
30 The Practice of Local Government Planning, r Edition, International City Managers Association, 1988.
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Attachment 1-77
Exhibit A-78
.
use powers of local government have been an important factor in the production
of housing, the role of local government has largely focused on regulation for
public health and safety and provision of infrastructure. More recently, awareness
has grown regarding the impact policies and regulations have had on the other
aspects of community life such as costs of transportation and other infrastructure,
access of residents to services and employment, and social interactions.
DEMAND VERSUS NEED
The language of Goal lO and ORS 197.296 refers to housing need: it requires
communities to provide needed housing types for households at all income levels.
Goal 10's broad definition of need covers all households-from those with no
home to those with second homes. State policy, however, does not make a clear
distinction between need and demand. Following is our definition, which we
believe to be consistent with definitions in state policy:
.
. Housing need can be defined broadly or narrowly. The broad definition is
based on the mandate of Goal 1 0 that requires communities' plan for
housing that meets the needs of households at all income levels. Thus,
Goal 10 implies that everyone has a housing need because everyone needs
housing. However, definition used by public agencies that provide housing
assistance (primarily the Department of Housing and Urban Development
- HUD, and the Oregon Housing and Community Services Department -
HCS) is more narrow. It does not include most of the households that can
purchase or rent housing consistent with the requirements of their
household size for a price that is affordable. Households that cannot find
and afford such housing have need: they are either unhoused, in housing
of substandard condition, overcrowded, or paying more than their income
and federal standards say they can afford.
· Housing market demand is what households demonstrate they are willing
to purchase in the market place. Growth in population leads to a growth in
households and implies an increase in demand for housing units that is
usually met primarily by the construction of new housing units by the
private sector based on developers' best judgments about the types of
housing that will be absorbed by the market. ORS 197.296 includes a
market demand component: buildable land needs analyses must consider
the density and mix of housing developed over the previous five years or
since their most recent periodic review, whichever is greater.
In short, a housing needs analysis should make a distinction between housing
that people might need (housing needs) and what the market will produce
(housing market demand).
.
Figure A-I shows a schematic that distinguishes between housing needs that
are unmet and those that are met via market transactions. All housing need is the
total number of housing units required to shelter the population. In that sense, it is
approximately the number of households: every household needs a dwelling
place. But some of that need is met through market transactions without much
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Attachment 1-78
Exhibit A-79
.
government intervention because households have the income to demand
(purchase) housing services (as owners or renters). That demand is shown in the
box on the right. Other households, however, have needs unmet, usually because
they lack the resources to purchase housing services (financial need), but because
of special needs as well (though, even here, the issue is still one of financial
resources).
Figure A-1. Relationship between housing need and housing demand
~ All Housing ,..-
, .I,
~ Housing Need I-- Demand for New Housing I
(housing market)
Financial Need Special Need
.
Most housing market analyses and housing elements of comprehensive plans
in Oregon make forecasts of new demand (what housing units will get built in
response to market forces). Work by housing authorities is more likely address
housing need for special classes, especially low-income. It is the role of cities
under Goal 10 to adopt and implement land use policies that will encourage
provision of housing units that meet the needs of all residents.
It is unlikely that housing markets in any metropolitan area in the US provide
housing to meet the needs of every household. Even many upper-income
households probably believe they "need" (want) more housing than their wealth
and income allows them to afford. Goal 1 0 does not require communities address
the housing "want" of residents.
More important, however, are more basic housing needs. At the extreme there
is homelessness: some people do not have any shelter at all. Close behind follows .
substandard housing (with health and safety problems), space problems (the
. structure is adequate but overcrowded), and economic and social problems (the
structure is adequate in quality and size, but a household has to devote so much of
its income to housing payments that other aspects of its quality of life suffer).
Location can also be a burden-households that live further from work and
shopping opportunities will have to spend more money on transportation.
Moreover, while some new housing is government-assisted housing, public
agencies do not have the financial resources to meet but a small fraction of that
need. New housing does not, and is not likely to, fully address all these needs
because housing developers, like any other business, typically try to maximize
their profits.
.
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Attachment 1-79
.
.
.
Exhibit A-80
In fact, many of those needs are much more likely to be satisfied by existing
housing: the older, used stock of structures that is usually less expensive per
square foot than new housing. Thus, forecasting the type of new units that might
be built in a region (by type, size, and price) is unlikely to bear any relationship to
the type of housing to which most people with acute housing needs will turn to
solve their housing problems. One key reason for this is the dynamics associated
with housing construction. The cost of building new housing is largely prohibitive
for building dwelling units affordable to low-income households. This "trickle-
down" effect is well known among housing specialists. In most communities a
quick comparison of new home prices with income distributions will underscore
the fact that developers tend to focus on the move-up market and not on entry-
level housing.
Viewed in the light of those definitions (e.g., housing demand and housing
need), the requirements of Goal 10 need clarification. Goal 10 mandates that
communities plan for housing that meets the needs of households at all income
levels. Thus, Goal 10 implies that everyone has a housing need. As we have
noted, however, it is hard to justify spending public resources on the needs of
high-income households: they have the income to purchase (demand) adequate
housing services in the housing market. The housing they can afford may not be
everything they want, but most policymakers would agree that the difference does
not classify as the same kind of need that burdens very-low-income households.
This study is not the place to resolve debates about definitions of housing
need and the purposes of Goal 10. Here are our assumptions about the distinction
between demand and need in the rest of this study:
. Our analysis of need addresses the Goal 1 0 requirements regarding
financial need (ability to obtain housing) as they relate to future
households and to those households whose circumstances suggest that
they will have special problems in finding adequate and affordable
housing services. That analysis occurs after, and largely independent of,
the forecast of new housing that is likely to be built to supply effective
demand.
· Our forecast includes a comparison of demand for new housing: what kind
of housing of what type is likely to get built in the region over the next 20
years. The baseline forecast is the housing "demand" forecast, the
alternative forecast is the housing "need" forecast.
In summary, Goal 10 intends that cities identify housing need and develop a
land use policy framework that meets identified needs. One of the key issues that
gets addressed in a 'housing needs analysis is to determine how much land is
needed for different housing types, and therefore must be designated for different
housing types. Providing sufficient land in the proper designations is one of the
most fundamental land use tools local governments have to meet housing need.
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Attachment 1-80
.
.
.
Exhibit A-81
DRAFT: Springfield Housing Needs Analysis
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Attachment 1-81
.
Appendix B
.
.
Exhibit A-82
National Housing Trends
The overview of national, state, and local housing trends builds from previous
work by ECO and conclusions from The State of the Nation's Housing, 2008
report from the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University. The
Harvard report summarizes the national housing outlook for the next decade as
follows:
"Housing markets contracted for a second straight year in 2007. The
national median single-family home price fell in nominal terms for the
first time in 40 years of recordkeeping, leaving several million
homeowners with properties worth less than their mortgages. With the
economy softening and many home loans resetting to higher rates, an
increasing number of owners had difficulty keeping current on their
payments. Mortgage performance-especially on subprime loans with
adjustable rates---eroded badly. Lenders responded by tightening
underwriting standards and demanding a higher risk premium,
accelerating the ongoing slide in sales and starts.
"It is still uncertain how far, and for how long, the housing crisis will
drive down household growth. Regardless, given the solid underpinnings
of long-term demand-including the recent strength of immigration and
the aging of the echo-boom generation into young adulthood-household
growth will pick up again once the economy recovers. But if the nation
suffers a prolonged economic downturn that results in lower immigration
and more doubling up, household growth in 2010-2020 may fall short of
the 14.4 million level currently projected.
This evaluation presents a bleak outlook for housing markets and for
homeownership in the short-term brought on by the subprime mortgage crisis.
However, the image painted of the future looks brighter, as the increase in
housing demand is naturally induced by the growth of the population in the
necessary age groups.
Long run trends in home ownership and demand
Last year (2007) was a continuation of the significant departure from the
recent housing boom that had lasted for 13 consecutive years (1992-2005). While
strength in early 2005 pushed most national housing indicators into record
territory, the market began to soften and sales slowed in many areas in the latter
half of2005. By 2006, higher prices and rising interest rates had a negative
impact on market demand. Investor demand, home sales and single-family starts
dropped sharply. Growth in national sales prices also slowed. By 2007 and early
2008, housing market problems had reached the rest of the economy, resulting in
a nationwide economic slowdown and fear of recession. After 12 successive years
of increases, the national homeownership rate slipped in 2005, again in 2006 to
68.8%, and again in 2007 to 68.1 %.
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Attachment 1-82
Exhibit A-83
.
The Joint Center for Housing Studies concludes that the cooling housing
market in 2006 had an immediate impact on homeownership. Increasing interest
rates and decreasing housing affordability contributed to the recent market
correction. Homebuilders could not react quickly enough to changing market
conditions, resulting in an oversupply of housing and a rising inventory of unsold
homes. The Joint Center for Housing Studies predicts that once the corrections
made to work off the housing oversupply and prices start to recover, a return to
traditional mortgage products and the strength of natural demand will invigorate
the homeownership rate. The long-term market outlook shows that
homeownership is still the preferred tenure. Over the next decade, 88% of net
household growth is expected to come from gains in the number of homeowners.
While further homeownership gains are likely during this decade, they are not
assured. Additional increases depend, in part, on finding ways to ease the
difficulties faced by low and moderate income households in purchasing a home.
It also rests on whether the conditions that have led to homeownership growth can
be sustained.
.
From 2000 to 2005 housing starts and manufactured home placements
appeared to have been roughly in line with household demand. In 2005, with
demand for homes falling but construction coming off record levels, the surplus
of both new and existing homes was much higher than in recent years. In late
2007 and early 2008, the excess supply of new single-family homes retreated by
about 12%, though the simultaneous drop in sales left the supply at 11 months, a
figure not seen since the 1970s. This resulted in a strong buyer's market, leaving
many homes lingering on the market and forcing many sellers to accept prices
lower than what they were expecting. The Joint Center for Housing Studies
predicts the oversupply will eventually balance as housing starts continue to fall,
lower prices motivate unforeseen buyers, and the rest of the economy begins to
recover.
The Joint Center for Housing Studies indicates that demand for new homes
could total as many as 14.4 million units nationally between 2010 and 2020.
Nationally, the vast majority of these homes will be built in lower-density areas
where cheaper land is in greater supply. People and jobs have been moving away
from central business districts (CBDs) for more than a century: the number of the
country's largest metropolitan areas with more than half of their households living
at least 10 miles from the CBD has more than tripled from 13 in 1970 to 46 in
2000; in six metropolitan areas more than a fifth of households live at least 30
miles out. While people older than 45 years are generally continuing to move
away from CBDs, younger people have begun to move nearer to CBDs.
.
The Joint Center for Housing Studies also indicates that demand for higher
density housing types exists among certain demographics. They conclude that
because of persistent income disparities, as well as the movement of the echo
boomers into young adulthood, housing demand may shift away from single-
family detached homes toward more affordable multifamily apartments, town
homes, and manufactured homes. Supply-side considerations, however, outweigh
these demographic forces.
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Attachment 1-83
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Exhibit A-84
Recent trends in home ownership and demand
Conditions that had previously bolstered the housing market and promoted
homeownership weakened in 2005 and eroded further in 2006 and 2007.
Increasing interest rates and weakening housing prices combined to slow the
housing market. In 2007, new home sales were down 40% from the record 2005
level, and existing home sales were down 20%. Regionally, using housing permits
issued as a proxy for new home ownership, Lane County's issued housing permits
fell between 25% and 50% between 2005 and 2007.
Figure B-1. Change in housing permits issued by county, U.S., 2005-2007
Change in Permits
2005-2007:
. More lhan 50% Decline
. 25% to 50% Decline
Less than 25% Decline
. Increase
Note: The largest decline in permits from 2005 to 2007 was in Palm Coast, R. (-8G%I.
while !.he largest increase was in Hauiescurg, MS 1t-369)1.1
Source: Census Bureau, Construction Statistics, Building Permits by County. As cited in The State of The Nation's
Housing, 2008, The Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University, p. 8
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Attachment 1-84
1-
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Exhibit A-85
Figure B-2. Change in housing permits issued by county, Oregon,
2005-2007
.r?
r- -- "'{
I . .L,~-l"
, :".-.----. .. .
'- "
...........
__ -1
....
Source: Census Bureau, Construction Statistics, Building Permits by County. As cited in The State
of The Nation's Housing, 2008, The Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University, p. 8
Demographic trends in home ownership
According to the Joint Center for Housing Studies, immigration will playa
key role in accelerating household growth over the next 10 years. Between 2000
and 2006, immigrants contributed to over 60% of household growth. Minorities
will account for 68% of the 14.6 million projected growth in households for the
2005 to 2015 period. Immigrants now comprise a growing share of young adults
and children in the United States. Twenty percent of Americans ages 25-34 are
foreign born, and an additional 9% are second generation Americans. Members of
this generation will probably earn more than their parents becoming an even
greater source of housing demand in the coming decades.
The Joint Center for Housing Studies suggests that an aging population, and
of baby boomers in particular, will drive changes in the age distribution of
households in all age groups over 55 years. A recent survey of baby boomers
showed that more than a quarter plan to relocate into larger homes and 5% plan to
move to smaller homes. Second home demand among upper-income homebuyers
of all ages also continues to grow. Households aged 50 to 69 are expected to
account for the purchase of nearly half a million second homes between 2005 and
2015.
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Attachment 1-85
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Exhibit A-86
People prefer to remain in their community as they age.3! The challenges that
seniors face as they age in continuing to live in their community include: changes
in healthcare needs, loss of mobility, the difficulty of home maintenance, financial
concerns, and increases in property taxes.32 Not all of these issues can be
addressed through housing or land-use policies. Communities can address some
of these issues through adopting policies that:
. Diversify housing stock to allow development of smaller,
comparatively easily maintained houses in single-family zones, such
as single story townhouses, condominiums, and apartments.
· Allow commercial uses in residential zones, such as neighborhood
markets.
. Allow a mixture of housing densities and structure types in single-
family zones, such as single-family detached, single-family attached,
condominiums, and apartments.
· Promote the development of group housing for seniors that are unable
or choose not to continue living in a private house. These facilities
could include retirement communities for active seniors, assisted
living facilities, or nursing homes.
· Design public facilities so that they can be used by seniors with limited
mobility. For example, design and maintain sidewalks so that they can
be used by people in wheel chairs or using walkers.
Home rental trends
Nationally, the rental market continues to experience growth, adding 2 million
rental households from 2004 to 2007. Demand strengthened in every region
except the Northeast. Vacancy rates in the West continue to decline, leading to.
strong increases in rental rates. Over the longer term, the Joint Center for Housing
studies expects rental housing demand to grow by 1.8 million households over the
next decade. Minorities will be responsible for nearly all of this increased
demand. The minority share ofrenter households grew from 37% in 1995 to 43%
in 2005. The minority share is forecast to exceed 50% of renter households in
2015. Demographics will also playa role. Growth in young adult households will
increase demand for moderately priced rentals, in part because echo boomers will
reach their mid-20s after 2010. Meanwhile growth among those between the ages
of 45 and 64 will lift demand for higher-end rentals. Given current trends in home
prices and interest rates, conditions will become increasingly favorable for rental
markets in the coming years.
3! A survey conducted by the AARP indicates that 90% of people 50 years and older want to stay in their current home and community as
they age. See htto:/Iwww.aaro.org/research.
32 "Aging in Place: A toolkit for Local Governments" by M. Scott Ball.
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Attachment 1-86
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Exhibit A-87
Despite only modest increases in rents in recent years, growing shares of low-
and moderate-wage workers, as well as seniors with fixed incomes, can no longer
afford to rent even a modest two-bedroom apartment anywhere in the country. In
2006, one in three American households spent more than 30% of income on
housing, and more than one in seven spent upwards of 50%. The national trend
towards increased rent to income ratios is mirrored regionally in that a salary of
two to three times the 2007 Federal minimum wage of$5.85 is needed to afford
rents in Lane County (see Figure B-3).
According to the Joint Center for Housing Studies, these statistics understate
the true magnitude of the affordability problem because they do not capture the
tradeoffs people make to hold down their housing costs. For example, these
figures exclude the 2.5 million households that live in crowded or structurally
inadequate housing units. They also exclude the growing number of households
that move to locations distant from work where they can afford to pay for
housing, but must spend more for transportation to work. Among households in
the lowest expenditure quartile, those living in affordable housing spend an
average of$100 more on transportation per month than those who are severely
housing cost-burdened. With total average monthly outlays of only $1,000, these
extra travel costs amount to 10 percent of the entire household budget.
Figure B-3. Hourly wages needed to afford rent by county, U.S., 2008
"'-
Housing Wage:
..
:.. $9.48 to S11.69
. $11.70 to $11.54
. $11.55 to $29.24
.-
->
. . $29.25 or Higher
Source: HUD's Fair Market Rents for 2008, based on methodology developed by the National Low Income Housing
Coalition. As cited in The State of The Nation's Housing, 2008, The Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard
University, p. 30
Note: Every county in Oregon had a housing wage between $11.70 and $17.54 in 2008,
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Attachment 1-87
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Exhibit A-88
Trends in housing affordability
Despite widespread falling house prices, affordability problems have not
improved significantly. A median-priced single-family home under conventional'
terms in 2007 (10% downpayment and 30-year fixed rate loan) only costs $76 per
month and $1,000 downpayment less than a house bought in 2006, the year in
which the sales prices of single-family homes were at their highest real price in
history. Only 17 of the 138 National Association of Realtors-covered
metropolitan areas have lower costs in 2007 than they did in 2003 when interest
rates were bottomed out.
With low-wage jobs increasing and wages for those jobs stagnating,
affordability problems will persist even as strong fundamentals lift the trajectory
of residential investment. The number of severely cost-burdened households
(spending more than 50% of income on housing) increased by almost 4 million
households from 2001 to 2006, to a total of nearly 18 million households in 2005.
Nearly 40% of low-income households with one or more full-time workers are
severely cost burdened, and nearly 60% of low-income households with one part-
time worker are severely cost burdened. The Joint Center for Housing Studies
points to widening income disparities and decreasing federal assistance as two
factors exacerbating the lack of affordable housing. While the Harvard report
presents a relatively optimistic long-run outlook for housing markets and for
homeownership, it points to the significant difficulties low- and moderate-income
households face in finding affordable housing, and preserving the affordable units
that do exist.
Trends in Housing Characteristics
The V.S Bureau of Census Characteristics of New Housing Report presents
data that show trends in the characteristics of new housing for the nation, state,
and local areas. Several trends in the characteristics of housing are evident from
the New Housing Report:
· Larger single-family units on smaller lots. Between 1997 and 2007 the
median size of new single-family dwellings increased 15%, from
1,975 sq. ft. to 2,277 sq. ft. nationally and 18% in the western region
from 1,930 sq. ft. to 2,286 sq. ft. Moreover, the percentage of units
under 1,200 sq. ft. nationally decreased from 8% in 1997 to 4% in
2007. The percentage of units greater than 3,000 sq. ft. increased from
15% in 1997 to 26% of new one-family homes completed in 2007. In
addition to larger homes, a move towards smaller lot sizes is seen
nationally. Between 1994 and 2007 the percentage of lots under 7,000
sq. ft. increased by 13% from 29% oflots to 33% oflots. A
corresponding 4% decrease in lots over 11,000 sq. ft. is seen.
· Larger multifamily units. Between 1999 and 2007, the median size of
new multiple family dwelling units increased by 15%. The percentage
of multifamily units with more than 1,200 sq. ft. increased from 26%
to 47% in the western region and from 28% to 50% nationally. The
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Attachment 1-88
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Exhibit A-89
percentage of units with less than 600 sq.. ft. stayed at 1 % both
regionally and nationally.
.
More household amenities. Between 1994 and 2007 the percentage of
single-family units built with amenities such as central air
conditioning, fireplaces, 2 or more car garages, or 2 or more baths all
increased. The same trend in increased amenities is seen in multiple
family units.
A clear linkage exists between demographic characteristics and housing
choice. This is more typically referredto as the linkage between life-cycle and
housing choice and is do'cumented in detail in several publications. Analysis of
data from the Public Use Microsample (PUMS) in the 2000 Census to describe
the relationship between selected demographic characteristics and housing choice.
Key relationships identified through this data include:
. Homeownership rates increase as income increases;
. Homeownership rates increase as age increases;
· Choice of single-family detached housing types increJases as income
Increases;
. Renters are much more likely to choose multiple family housing types
than single-family; and
. Income is a stronger determinate of tenure and housing type choice for
all age categories.
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Attachment 1-89