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HomeMy WebLinkAboutItem 03 Residential Lands Study Progress Report AGENDA ITEM SUMMARY Meeting Date: Meeting Type: Department: Staff Contact: S P RIN G F IE L D Staff Phone No: C I T Y C 0 U N C I L Estimated Time: ITEM TITLE: RESIDENTIAL LANDS STUDY PROGRESS REPORT October 22nd, 2007 Work Session Development Services 'Yl1...~ Mark Metzger, David Reesor 726-3775, 726-3785 ~ 45 minutes ACTION REQUESTED: Staff will update the Council on the Residential Lands Study and discuss its initial findings related to the housing needs analysis. Council is requested to review the attached memorandum (Attachment 1) from ECONorthwest and provide initial feedback on the three different projections of population growth (low, medium, high) for Springfield discussed in the memo. ISSUE STATEMENT: Assumptions about the city's rate of growth will affect the final estimate of how much land is needed for future residential development. Three rates of growth are analyzed in the memorandum from ECONorthwest: l.3%, 1.7%, and 2.l%. T4e resulting scenarios identify a need for between 740 and 1,655 acres of residentially designated land to meet Springfield's future needs. Each percentage rate can be supported from historic data or from past action of the Council (adoption of the 2004 Coordinated Population Allocation). At issue is the rate of growth that will be assumed in the Residential Lands Study. ATTACHMENTS: Attachment 1: Preliminary Findings Memorandum from ECONorthwest DISCUSSION/ FINANCIAL IMPACT: Robert Parker ofECONorthwest, the consulting firm for the Study, will present the initial findings of the housing needs analysis that his firm has prepared. The findings described in the housing needs analysis reflect the completion of a land supply analysis that shows that the city has about 530 acres of vacant, redevelopable and underutilized land for future development. The assumptions and de[mitions used to defme land that is vacant, redevelopable and underutilized were approved by Council in its June 6, 2006 work session. Attachment 1 discusses the topics listed below. Staff and Mr. Parker will be prepared to discuss and answer questions about these issues. · Population scenarios · Current inventory · Housing need · Comparison of current inventory with future housing need · Land use efficiency measures Next Steps: Staff is reviewing the ECONorthwest findings with the Planning Commission on November 6. A final draft of the Residential Lands Study Report will be presented to Council early next year, in time to coordinate with the Commercial Industrial Buildable Lands (CIBL) project. The findings of the Residential Lands Study will be combined with those of the CffiL to allow staff to more accurately assess Springfield's future land needs of all types and to plan accordingly for any necessary UGB amendments. ECONorthwest ECONOMICS' FINANCE. PLANNING Phone' (541) 687-0051 FAX' (541) 344-0562 info@eugene.econw.com Suite 400 99 W. 10th Avenue Eugene, Oregon 97401-3001 Other Offices Portland. (503) 222-6060 Seattle. (206) 622-2403 15 October 2007 TO: FROM: SUBJECT: Springfield Mayor and City Council Bob Parker and Beth Goodman PRELIMINARY RESULTS OF RESIDENTIAL LAND NEEDS ANALYSIS ECONorthwest is conducting housing needs analysis for the City of Springfield. The study is intended to comply with statewide planning policies that govern housing, including Goal 10 (Housing),ORS 197.296, and OAR 660 Division 8. The primary goals of this study are to (1) project the amount of land needed to accommodate the city's future housing needs of all types, and (2) evaluate the existing residential land supply within the Springfield Urban Growth Boundary to determine if it is adequate to meet that need. BACKGROUND The City of Springfield has not conducted a housing needs analysis since the Eugene-Springfield Residential Lands and Housing Study was completed in 1999. In the six years since the study was completed, Springfield's population has increased by nearly 3,000 residents, an increase of more than 5% over the six-year period. The City of Springfield is interested in determining whether the City has sufficient land within the Springfield Urban Growth Boundary (UGB) to accommodate expected future housing needs. To make this determination, this report presents a housing needs analysis consistent with requirements of Goal 14, ORS 197.296, and OAR 660-008. Additionally, the analysis considers the "safe harbor" provisions found in OAR 660-024. The primary product of the housing needs analysis is an estimate the number of residentially zoned acres that will be necessary to accommodate all types of housing for the next twenty years. The 2007 Legislature passed HB 3337 which allows Springfield to establish a separate UGB. Given that change, the City is conducting-this study to ,evaluate the sufficiency of land available for residential uses in its UGB. A complicating factor is that the City does not have a coordinated population forecast. PRELIMINARY FINDINGS The remainder of this memorandum presents preliminary fmdings from the Housing Needs Analy~is that ECO is in the process of drafting. The results presented here are based on a range of growth forecasts, preliminary land inventory data developed by the City, and the draft housing needs analysis completed by ECO. The data presented in this memorandum will be refined and will ultimately depend on the City's coordinated population forecast. ATTACHMENT 1 - 1 Preliminary Findings: Springfield Housing Needs Analysis 15 Oct 2007 Page 2 GROWTH FORECASTS Prior to adopting the housing needs analysis, Springfield must have a population forecast to project expected population change over the 20-year planning period (in this instance, 2008- 2028). On February 24,2005, the Lane Council of Governments (LCOG) a~opted a coordinated population projection consistent with ORS 195.036. Lane County's forecast projected Springfield's population as part of the Eugene-Springfield joint UGB. In order to conduct a housing needs analysis, Springfield needs a population forecast for the Springfield portion of the Metro UGB (essentially, everything in the UGB east ofl-5). Early in the project, ECO facilitated a series of discussions with the Stakeholder Committee about population. Because the City did not have a separate forecast, ECO recommended that a conservative figured be used for the initial needs analysis. Specifically, ECO proposed using the same rate assumption that LCOG used for the Metro UGB: 1.31 % annually. ECO acknowledged that the figure would probably underestimate growth in Springfield and that local decisionmakers would almost certainly argue for a higher rate if a separate growth forecast was adopted. LCOG is in the process of reviewing the regional population allocations. Staff requested ECO develop forecasts based on the following rate assumptions: 1.31 %, 1.7% and 2.1 %. As mentioned above, 1.31 % is the growth rate assumption used for the Metro UGB in the adopted 2004 coordinated population estimate. The 1.7% figure is the average annual growth rate for Springfield between 1995 and 2006. The 2.1 % figure is the growth rate for the city since 1970 as shown in the LCOG report, "Regional Trends, Data for Sound Decision Making," (2006). Table 1 summarizes historical and forecast population and employment in the Springfield City Limits. Table 1. Historical and forecast population and employment, Springfield City Limits, 2008-2058 Low ' Medium High Year (1.31%) (1.7%) (2.1%) 2006 57,065 57,065 57,065 2008 58,570 59,022 59,487 2025 73,074 78,608 84,695 2028 75,984 82,686 90,144 2030 77,988 85,521 93,970 Change 2008-2028 Number 17,414 Percent 30% AAGR 1.31% 23,664 40% 1.70% 30,657 52% 2.10% Source: U.S. Census, LCOG; forecasts calculated by ECONorthwest. BUILDABLE LANDS INVENTORY The buildable lands inventory is the component of the analysis that requires the most follow-up work. Staff are completing the BLI and are currently in the verification stage of the analysis. It is possible the numbers will change based on the verification steps. 'ATTACHMENT 1 - 2 Preliminary Findings: Springfield Housing Needs Analysis 15'Oct 2007 Page 3 Table 2 summarizes the residential buildable lands inventory. The results indicate that Springfield has about 530 buildable residential acres within its UGB. The inventory shows about 303 net acres of vacant, 57 net acres of redevelop able, and 170 net acres ofunderutilized (infill) land. It is notable that over 90% of the net buildable residential land in Springfield is in the low- density designation. Table 2. Total buildable residential land, Springfield UGB, 2007 Net ~nderutilized (infill) 159.8 6.1 4.1 170.0 270.7 27.3 4.9 303.0 Net Redevelopable 50.1 4.9 1.4 56.5 Total Net Percent of Buildable Acres Total Acres 480.6 91% 38.4 7% 10.5 2% 529.5 100% Plan Designation LOR MOR HOR Total Net Vacant Source: City of Springfield The final step in a residential buildable lands inventory is to estimate the holding capacity of buildable land. The holding capacity of residential 'land is measured in dwelling units and is dependent on densities allowed iIi specific zones. In short, land capacity is a function of buildable land and density. The buildable lands inventory indicates that Springfield has about 530 acres of vacant, redevelopable, and under-.utilized residential land. Table 3 provides an estimate of how much housing could be accommodated by those lands based on the needed densities identified in Table 5.1 ECO estimates that Springfield has capacity for 2,211 dwelling units within the existing UGB. ' 1 The capacity analysis provides a more accurate assessment of how much housing could be built on residential land. It assumes that any LDR or MDR tax lot with less than 10,000 square feet has a capacity of 1 dwelling unit Tax lots above that size have a capacity of the lot size in acres times the needed density in net acres. For tax lots with slope constraints, (all of which are in the LDR designation), we assumed 50% of the needed density (3 DUfnet acre). This is slightly higher than 2.7 DU per net acre observed in the Mountaingate development. ATTACHMENT 1 - 3 Preliminary Findings: Springfield Housing Needs Analysis 15 Oct 2007 Page 4 Table 3. Estimated development capacity, Springfield UGB, 2007 \ Plan Designation LOR MOR HOR Total Total Net Buildable Residential Acres 480.6 38.4 10.5 529.5 Capacity (in DU) 1,788 308 115 2,211 Source: City of Springfield residential BLI; analysis by ECONorthwest HOUSING NEEDS Table 4 shows an estimate of needed new housing units in Springfield during the 2008 to 2028 , period. Depending on the population growth rate assumption, Springfield will need between 7,201 new dwelling units (low growth) and 12,678 new dwelling units (high growth) to accommodate population growth between 2008 and 2028. These figures do not include new group quarters. The forecast assumes 63% will be single-family housing types (single-family detached and manufactured) and 37% will be multifamily. The results indicate that Springfield will need to issue permits for between 360 and 634 new dwelling units annually during the planning period. By comparison, Springfield averaged 300 dwelling units annually during the 1999 to 2006 period, and had a peak of 515 dwellings approved in 2002. ATTACHMENT 1 - 4 Preliminary Findings: Springfield Housing Needs Analysis 15 Oct 2007 Page 5 Table 4. Demand for new housing units, Springfield, 2008-2028 Variable Low (1.31%) Medium High (2.1%) (1.7%) Change in persons 17,414 23,664 30,657 minus Change in persons in group quarters 174 236 306 equals Persons in households 17,240 23,428 30,351 Average household size 2.54 2.54 2.54 New occupied DU 6,787 9,224 11,949 Single-family dwelling units Percent single-family DU 63% 63% 63% New occupied single-family DU 4,276 5,811 7,528 Vacancy rate 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% Total new single-family DU 4,501 6,117 7,924 Multiple family dwelling units Percent multiple family DU 37% 37% 37% New occupied multiple-family DU 2,511 3,413 4,421 Vacancy rate 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% New multiple family DU 2,700 3,670 4,754 Totals equals Total new occupied dwelling units 6,787 9,224 11,949 Aggregate household size (persons/occupied DU) 2.54 2.54 2.54 plus Vacant dwelling units 414 563 729 equals Total new dwelling units 7,201 9,786 12,678 Dwelling units 'needed annually 360 489 634 Source: Calculations by ECONorthwest based on population forecasts and US Census data, Table 5 shows the forecast of needed housing units by density in Springfield for the low, medium, and high population growth increments. The forecasts shows land need in net and gross acres. Net acres is the amount of land needed for housing, not including public infrastructure (e.g., roads) or services (e.g., schools or parks). Gross acres is the estimated amount ofland needed for housing inclusive of public infrastructure and services. Under the low growth increment, the forecast indicates that Springfield will need about 1,000 net residential acres, or about 1,200 gross residential acres to accommodate new housing between 2008 and 2028. The forecast results in an average residential density of7.2 dwelling units per net residential acre and of 6.0 dwelling units per gross residential acre. The average residential density between 1999 and 2006 was 6.26 dwellings per net acre. This represents an increase of 15% over historical levels. ATTACHMENT 1- 5 Preliminary Findings: Springfield Housing Needs Analysis 15 Oct 2007 Page 6 Table 5. Forecast of needed housing units by mix and density, Springfield, 2008- 2028 Density Net to Gross Density (DUlnet Net Res. Gross Res. (DUlgross Housing Type New DU Percent res ac) Acres Factor Acres res ac) Needed Units, Low Growth Single-family types Single-family detached 4,105 57% 5.5 746.3 18% 910.2 4.5 Manufactured in parks 72 1% 6.0 12.0 15% 14.1 5.1 Single-family attached 648 9% 7.5 86.4 15% 101.7 6.4 Subtotal 4,825 67% 5.7 844.7 1,025.9 4.7 Multi-family Multifamily 2,376 33% 15.0 158.4 10% 176.0 13.5 Subtotal 2,376 33% 15.0 158.4 176.0 13.5 Total 7,201 100% 7.2 1,003.2 1,202.0 6.0 Needed Units, Medium Growth Single-family types Single-family detached 5,578 57% 5.5 1,014.2 18% 1,236.9 4.5 Manufactured in parks 98 1% 6.0 16.3 15% 19.2 5.1 CondofT ownhomes 881 9% 7.5 117.4 15% 138.2 6.4 Subtotal 6,557 67% 5.7 1,148.0 1,394.2 4.7 Multi-family Multifamily 3,229 33% 15.0 215.3 10% 239.2 13.5 Subtotal 3,229 33% 15.0 215.3 239.2 13.5 Total 9,786 100% 7.2 1,363.3 1,633.4 6.0 Needed Units, High Growth Single-family types Single-family detached 7,227 57% 5.5 1,313.9 18% 1,602.3 4.5 Manufactured in parks 127 1% 6.0 21.1 15% 24.9 5.1 CondofTownhomes 1,141 9% 7.5 152.1 15% 179.0 6.4 Subtotal 6,557 67% 4.4 1,487.2 1,806.2 3.6 Multi-family Multifamily 4,184 33% 15.0 278.9 10% 309.9 13.5 Subtotal 3,229 33% 11.6 278.9 309.9 10.4 Total 12,678 100% 7.2 1,766.1 2,116.1 6.0 Source: ECONorthwest The final step in the housing needs analysis is to allocate housing needs by plan designation to determine the number of needed housing units and gross acres required to meet identified housing needs for the 20-year period. Table 6 provides an allocation of housing units by Springfield's three residential plan designations. It also provides an estimate of the gross acres required in each zone to accommodate needed housing units. The acreages are based on the gross density assumptions shown in Table 5. Based on Table 6, the needed density by plan designations are: . LDR - 5.5 DU/Net Acre; 4.5 DU/Gross Acre . MDR - 11.8 DY/Net Acre; 10 DU/Gross Acre . HDR - 22.2 DU/Net Acre; 20 DU/Gross Acre ATTACHMENT 1 - 6 Preliminary Findings: Springfield Housing Needs Analysis 15 Oct 2007 Page 7 Table 6. Allocation of needed housing units by plan designation, 2007-2027 Low Medium High Growth Growth Growth Plan Designation Percent of Need LOR MOR HOR Total Needed Dwellings LOR MOR HOR Total Needed Acres (Gross) LOR MOR HOR Total 59% 31% 10% 100% 4,234 2,247 720 7,201 941 225 36 1,202 59% 31% 10% 100% 5,754 3,053 979 9,786 1,279 305 49 1,633 59% 31% 10% 100% 7,455 3,956 1,268 12,678 1,657 396 63 2,116 Source: ECONorthwest PRELIMINARY COMPARISON OF LAND CAPACITY AND NEED Table 7 shows the capacity for residential development by plan designation. The results lead to the following fmdings: . Springfield has a need for additional residential land under any growth scenario. The Springfield UGB has enough land for 2,111 new dwelling units. The housing needs forecast projects a need for between 7,200 and 12,678 dwelling units. · The Low Density Residential designation has a deficit of approximately 544 to 1,259 gross acres in the UGB. · The Medium Density Residential designation has a deficit of approximately 194to 365 gross acres in UGB. · The High Density Residential designation has a deficit of approximately 30 to 58 gross acres in the U GB. ATTACHMENT 1 - 7 15 Oct 2007 Preliminary Findings: Springfield Housing Needs Analysis Page 8 Table 7. Residential capacity for needed dwelling units by plan designation, Springfield UGB, 2008-2028 Low Growth Medium Growth High Growth Plan Designation Needed Dwelling Units LDR MDR HDR Total Capacity (Dwelling Units) LDR 1,788 MDR 308 HDR 115 Total 2,211 Surplus (Deficit) - Dwelling Units LDR (2,446) (3,966) (5,667) MDR (1,939) (2,745) (3,648) HDR (605) (864) (1,153) Total (4,990) (7,575) (10,467) Gross Residential Acres Needed for Addition to UGB LDR 544 881 1,259 MDR 194 275 365 HDR 30 43 58 Total 768 1,199 1,682 4,234 2,247 720 7,201 5,754 3,053 979 9,786 1,788 308 115 2,211 7,455 3,956 1,268 12,678 1,788 308 115 2,211 Source: ECONorthwest IMPLlCA liONS The preliminary analysis suggests Springfield will be able to justify a UGB expansion for residential land. ORS 197.296 requires cities to consider land use efficiency measures if the housing needs analysis finds that the City may not meet identified housing needs. The measures are intended to increase the probability that the needed housing types will get built. Specifically, the statute states: (6) If the housing need determined pursuant to subsection (3)(b) of this section is greater than the housing capacity determined pursuant to subsection.(3)(a) of this section, the local government shall take one or more of the following actions to accommodate the additional housing need: (a) Amend its urban growth boundary to include sufficient buildable lands to accommodate housing needs for the next 20 years. As part of this process, the local government shall consider the effects of measures taken pursuant to paragraph (b) of this subsection. The amendment shall include sufficient land reasonably necessary to accommodate the siting of new public school facilities. The need and inclusion of lands for new public school facilities shall be a coordinated process between the affected public school districts and the local government that has the authority to approve the urban growth boundary; ATTACHMENT 1 - 8 Preliminary Findings: Springfield Housing Needs Analysis 15 Oct 2007 Page 9 (b) Amend its comprehensive plan, regional plan, functional plan or land use regulations to include new measures that demonstrably increase the likelihood that residential development will occur at densities sufficient to accommodate housing needs for the next 20 years without expansion of the urban growth boundary. A local government or metropolitan service district that takes this action shall monitor and record the level of development activity and development density by housing type following the . date of the adoption of the new measures; or (c) Adopt a combination of the actions described in paragraphs (a) and (b) of this subsection. (7) Using the analysis conducted under subsection (3)(b) of this section, the local government shall determine the overall average density and overall mix of housing types at which residential development of needed housing types must occur in order to meet housing needs over the next 20 years. If that density is greater than the actual density of development determined under subsection (5)(a)(A) of this section, or if that mix is different from the actual mix of housing types determined under subsection (5)(a)(A) of this section, the local government, as part of its periodic review, shall adopt measures that demonstrably increase the likelihood that residential development will occur at the housing types and density and at the mix of housing types required to meet housing needs over the next 20 years. It is common for jurisdictions to adopt combinations of policies to manage growth and improve the efficiency and holding capaCity of land uses. Such policy groupings, however, are not necessarily cumulative in their intent or impact. Polices that address similar issues may not be mutually reinforcing. For example, having policies in residential zones for maximum lot size and minimum density essentially address the same issue-underbuild in residential zones. Thus, Springfield should carefully consider their policy programs and evaluate each policy option both individually and in consideration of other policies. ATTACHMENT 1 - 9