HomeMy WebLinkAboutItem 03 Residential Lands Study Progress Report
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ITEM TITLE: RESIDENTIAL LANDS STUDY PROGRESS REPORT
October 22nd, 2007
Work Session
Development Services 'Yl1...~
Mark Metzger, David Reesor
726-3775, 726-3785 ~
45 minutes
ACTION
REQUESTED:
Staff will update the Council on the Residential Lands Study and discuss its initial findings
related to the housing needs analysis. Council is requested to review the attached
memorandum (Attachment 1) from ECONorthwest and provide initial feedback on the three
different projections of population growth (low, medium, high) for Springfield discussed in
the memo.
ISSUE
STATEMENT:
Assumptions about the city's rate of growth will affect the final estimate of how much land
is needed for future residential development. Three rates of growth are analyzed in the
memorandum from ECONorthwest: l.3%, 1.7%, and 2.l%. T4e resulting scenarios
identify a need for between 740 and 1,655 acres of residentially designated land to meet
Springfield's future needs. Each percentage rate can be supported from historic data or
from past action of the Council (adoption of the 2004 Coordinated Population Allocation).
At issue is the rate of growth that will be assumed in the Residential Lands Study.
ATTACHMENTS: Attachment 1: Preliminary Findings Memorandum from ECONorthwest
DISCUSSION/
FINANCIAL
IMPACT:
Robert Parker ofECONorthwest, the consulting firm for the Study, will present the initial
findings of the housing needs analysis that his firm has prepared. The findings described in
the housing needs analysis reflect the completion of a land supply analysis that shows
that the city has about 530 acres of vacant, redevelopable and underutilized land for future
development. The assumptions and de[mitions used to defme land that is vacant,
redevelopable and underutilized were approved by Council in its June 6, 2006 work session.
Attachment 1 discusses the topics listed below. Staff and Mr. Parker will be prepared to
discuss and answer questions about these issues.
· Population scenarios
· Current inventory
· Housing need
· Comparison of current inventory with future housing need
· Land use efficiency measures
Next Steps: Staff is reviewing the ECONorthwest findings with the Planning Commission
on November 6. A final draft of the Residential Lands Study Report will be presented to
Council early next year, in time to coordinate with the Commercial Industrial Buildable
Lands (CIBL) project. The findings of the Residential Lands Study will be combined with
those of the CffiL to allow staff to more accurately assess Springfield's future land needs of
all types and to plan accordingly for any necessary UGB amendments.
ECONorthwest
ECONOMICS' FINANCE. PLANNING
Phone' (541) 687-0051
FAX' (541) 344-0562
info@eugene.econw.com
Suite 400
99 W. 10th Avenue
Eugene, Oregon 97401-3001
Other Offices
Portland. (503) 222-6060
Seattle. (206) 622-2403
15 October 2007
TO:
FROM:
SUBJECT:
Springfield Mayor and City Council
Bob Parker and Beth Goodman
PRELIMINARY RESULTS OF RESIDENTIAL LAND NEEDS ANALYSIS
ECONorthwest is conducting housing needs analysis for the City of Springfield. The study is
intended to comply with statewide planning policies that govern housing, including Goal 10
(Housing),ORS 197.296, and OAR 660 Division 8. The primary goals of this study are to (1)
project the amount of land needed to accommodate the city's future housing needs of all types,
and (2) evaluate the existing residential land supply within the Springfield Urban Growth
Boundary to determine if it is adequate to meet that need.
BACKGROUND
The City of Springfield has not conducted a housing needs analysis since the Eugene-Springfield
Residential Lands and Housing Study was completed in 1999. In the six years since the study was
completed, Springfield's population has increased by nearly 3,000 residents, an increase of more
than 5% over the six-year period.
The City of Springfield is interested in determining whether the City has sufficient land within the
Springfield Urban Growth Boundary (UGB) to accommodate expected future housing needs. To
make this determination, this report presents a housing needs analysis consistent with
requirements of Goal 14, ORS 197.296, and OAR 660-008. Additionally, the analysis considers
the "safe harbor" provisions found in OAR 660-024. The primary product of the housing needs
analysis is an estimate the number of residentially zoned acres that will be necessary to
accommodate all types of housing for the next twenty years.
The 2007 Legislature passed HB 3337 which allows Springfield to establish a separate UGB.
Given that change, the City is conducting-this study to ,evaluate the sufficiency of land available
for residential uses in its UGB. A complicating factor is that the City does not have a coordinated
population forecast.
PRELIMINARY FINDINGS
The remainder of this memorandum presents preliminary fmdings from the Housing Needs
Analy~is that ECO is in the process of drafting. The results presented here are based on a
range of growth forecasts, preliminary land inventory data developed by the City, and the
draft housing needs analysis completed by ECO. The data presented in this memorandum will
be refined and will ultimately depend on the City's coordinated population forecast.
ATTACHMENT 1 - 1
Preliminary Findings: Springfield Housing Needs Analysis
15 Oct 2007
Page 2
GROWTH FORECASTS
Prior to adopting the housing needs analysis, Springfield must have a population forecast to
project expected population change over the 20-year planning period (in this instance, 2008-
2028). On February 24,2005, the Lane Council of Governments (LCOG) a~opted a coordinated
population projection consistent with ORS 195.036. Lane County's forecast projected
Springfield's population as part of the Eugene-Springfield joint UGB. In order to conduct a
housing needs analysis, Springfield needs a population forecast for the Springfield portion of the
Metro UGB (essentially, everything in the UGB east ofl-5).
Early in the project, ECO facilitated a series of discussions with the Stakeholder Committee
about population. Because the City did not have a separate forecast, ECO recommended that a
conservative figured be used for the initial needs analysis. Specifically, ECO proposed using the
same rate assumption that LCOG used for the Metro UGB: 1.31 % annually. ECO acknowledged
that the figure would probably underestimate growth in Springfield and that local decisionmakers
would almost certainly argue for a higher rate if a separate growth forecast was adopted.
LCOG is in the process of reviewing the regional population allocations. Staff requested ECO
develop forecasts based on the following rate assumptions: 1.31 %, 1.7% and 2.1 %. As
mentioned above, 1.31 % is the growth rate assumption used for the Metro UGB in the adopted
2004 coordinated population estimate. The 1.7% figure is the average annual growth rate for
Springfield between 1995 and 2006. The 2.1 % figure is the growth rate for the city since 1970
as shown in the LCOG report, "Regional Trends, Data for Sound Decision Making," (2006).
Table 1 summarizes historical and forecast population and employment in the Springfield City
Limits.
Table 1. Historical and forecast population and
employment, Springfield City Limits, 2008-2058
Low ' Medium High
Year (1.31%) (1.7%) (2.1%)
2006 57,065 57,065 57,065
2008 58,570 59,022 59,487
2025 73,074 78,608 84,695
2028 75,984 82,686 90,144
2030 77,988 85,521 93,970
Change 2008-2028
Number 17,414
Percent 30%
AAGR 1.31%
23,664
40%
1.70%
30,657
52%
2.10%
Source: U.S. Census, LCOG; forecasts calculated by ECONorthwest.
BUILDABLE LANDS INVENTORY
The buildable lands inventory is the component of the analysis that requires the most follow-up
work. Staff are completing the BLI and are currently in the verification stage of the analysis. It is
possible the numbers will change based on the verification steps.
'ATTACHMENT 1 - 2
Preliminary Findings: Springfield Housing Needs Analysis
15'Oct 2007
Page 3
Table 2 summarizes the residential buildable lands inventory. The results indicate that
Springfield has about 530 buildable residential acres within its UGB. The inventory shows about
303 net acres of vacant, 57 net acres of redevelop able, and 170 net acres ofunderutilized (infill)
land. It is notable that over 90% of the net buildable residential land in Springfield is in the low-
density designation.
Table 2. Total buildable residential land, Springfield UGB, 2007
Net
~nderutilized
(infill)
159.8
6.1
4.1
170.0
270.7
27.3
4.9
303.0
Net
Redevelopable
50.1
4.9
1.4
56.5
Total Net Percent of
Buildable Acres Total Acres
480.6 91%
38.4 7%
10.5 2%
529.5 100%
Plan
Designation
LOR
MOR
HOR
Total
Net
Vacant
Source: City of Springfield
The final step in a residential buildable lands inventory is to estimate the holding capacity of
buildable land. The holding capacity of residential 'land is measured in dwelling units and is
dependent on densities allowed iIi specific zones. In short, land capacity is a function of
buildable land and density.
The buildable lands inventory indicates that Springfield has about 530 acres of vacant,
redevelopable, and under-.utilized residential land. Table 3 provides an estimate of how much
housing could be accommodated by those lands based on the needed densities identified in Table
5.1 ECO estimates that Springfield has capacity for 2,211 dwelling units within the existing
UGB. '
1 The capacity analysis provides a more accurate assessment of how much housing could be built on residential land. It assumes
that any LDR or MDR tax lot with less than 10,000 square feet has a capacity of 1 dwelling unit Tax lots above that size have a
capacity of the lot size in acres times the needed density in net acres. For tax lots with slope constraints, (all of which are in the
LDR designation), we assumed 50% of the needed density (3 DUfnet acre). This is slightly higher than 2.7 DU per net acre
observed in the Mountaingate development.
ATTACHMENT 1 - 3
Preliminary Findings: Springfield Housing Needs Analysis
15 Oct 2007
Page 4
Table 3. Estimated development capacity,
Springfield UGB, 2007
\
Plan
Designation
LOR
MOR
HOR
Total
Total Net
Buildable
Residential
Acres
480.6
38.4
10.5
529.5
Capacity (in
DU)
1,788
308
115
2,211
Source: City of Springfield residential BLI; analysis by ECONorthwest
HOUSING NEEDS
Table 4 shows an estimate of needed new housing units in Springfield during the 2008 to 2028
, period. Depending on the population growth rate assumption, Springfield will need between
7,201 new dwelling units (low growth) and 12,678 new dwelling units (high growth) to
accommodate population growth between 2008 and 2028. These figures do not include new
group quarters. The forecast assumes 63% will be single-family housing types (single-family
detached and manufactured) and 37% will be multifamily.
The results indicate that Springfield will need to issue permits for between 360 and 634 new
dwelling units annually during the planning period. By comparison, Springfield averaged 300
dwelling units annually during the 1999 to 2006 period, and had a peak of 515 dwellings
approved in 2002.
ATTACHMENT 1 - 4
Preliminary Findings: Springfield Housing Needs Analysis
15 Oct 2007
Page 5
Table 4. Demand for new housing units, Springfield, 2008-2028
Variable Low (1.31%) Medium High (2.1%)
(1.7%)
Change in persons 17,414 23,664 30,657
minus Change in persons in group quarters 174 236 306
equals Persons in households 17,240 23,428 30,351
Average household size 2.54 2.54 2.54
New occupied DU 6,787 9,224 11,949
Single-family dwelling units
Percent single-family DU 63% 63% 63%
New occupied single-family DU 4,276 5,811 7,528
Vacancy rate 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
Total new single-family DU 4,501 6,117 7,924
Multiple family dwelling units
Percent multiple family DU 37% 37% 37%
New occupied multiple-family DU 2,511 3,413 4,421
Vacancy rate 7.0% 7.0% 7.0%
New multiple family DU 2,700 3,670 4,754
Totals
equals Total new occupied dwelling units 6,787 9,224 11,949
Aggregate household size (persons/occupied DU) 2.54 2.54 2.54
plus Vacant dwelling units 414 563 729
equals Total new dwelling units 7,201 9,786 12,678
Dwelling units 'needed annually 360 489 634
Source: Calculations by ECONorthwest based on population forecasts and US Census data,
Table 5 shows the forecast of needed housing units by density in Springfield for the low,
medium, and high population growth increments. The forecasts shows land need in net and gross
acres. Net acres is the amount of land needed for housing, not including public infrastructure
(e.g., roads) or services (e.g., schools or parks). Gross acres is the estimated amount ofland
needed for housing inclusive of public infrastructure and services.
Under the low growth increment, the forecast indicates that Springfield will need about 1,000 net
residential acres, or about 1,200 gross residential acres to accommodate new housing between
2008 and 2028. The forecast results in an average residential density of7.2 dwelling units per net
residential acre and of 6.0 dwelling units per gross residential acre. The average residential
density between 1999 and 2006 was 6.26 dwellings per net acre. This represents an increase of
15% over historical levels.
ATTACHMENT 1- 5
Preliminary Findings: Springfield Housing Needs Analysis
15 Oct 2007
Page 6
Table 5. Forecast of needed housing units by mix and density, Springfield, 2008-
2028
Density Net to Gross Density
(DUlnet Net Res. Gross Res. (DUlgross
Housing Type New DU Percent res ac) Acres Factor Acres res ac)
Needed Units, Low Growth
Single-family types
Single-family detached 4,105 57% 5.5 746.3 18% 910.2 4.5
Manufactured in parks 72 1% 6.0 12.0 15% 14.1 5.1
Single-family attached 648 9% 7.5 86.4 15% 101.7 6.4
Subtotal 4,825 67% 5.7 844.7 1,025.9 4.7
Multi-family
Multifamily 2,376 33% 15.0 158.4 10% 176.0 13.5
Subtotal 2,376 33% 15.0 158.4 176.0 13.5
Total 7,201 100% 7.2 1,003.2 1,202.0 6.0
Needed Units, Medium Growth
Single-family types
Single-family detached 5,578 57% 5.5 1,014.2 18% 1,236.9 4.5
Manufactured in parks 98 1% 6.0 16.3 15% 19.2 5.1
CondofT ownhomes 881 9% 7.5 117.4 15% 138.2 6.4
Subtotal 6,557 67% 5.7 1,148.0 1,394.2 4.7
Multi-family
Multifamily 3,229 33% 15.0 215.3 10% 239.2 13.5
Subtotal 3,229 33% 15.0 215.3 239.2 13.5
Total 9,786 100% 7.2 1,363.3 1,633.4 6.0
Needed Units, High Growth
Single-family types
Single-family detached 7,227 57% 5.5 1,313.9 18% 1,602.3 4.5
Manufactured in parks 127 1% 6.0 21.1 15% 24.9 5.1
CondofTownhomes 1,141 9% 7.5 152.1 15% 179.0 6.4
Subtotal 6,557 67% 4.4 1,487.2 1,806.2 3.6
Multi-family
Multifamily 4,184 33% 15.0 278.9 10% 309.9 13.5
Subtotal 3,229 33% 11.6 278.9 309.9 10.4
Total 12,678 100% 7.2 1,766.1 2,116.1 6.0
Source: ECONorthwest
The final step in the housing needs analysis is to allocate housing needs by plan designation to
determine the number of needed housing units and gross acres required to meet identified
housing needs for the 20-year period. Table 6 provides an allocation of housing units by
Springfield's three residential plan designations. It also provides an estimate of the gross acres
required in each zone to accommodate needed housing units. The acreages are based on the gross
density assumptions shown in Table 5. Based on Table 6, the needed density by plan
designations are:
. LDR - 5.5 DU/Net Acre; 4.5 DU/Gross Acre
. MDR - 11.8 DY/Net Acre; 10 DU/Gross Acre
. HDR - 22.2 DU/Net Acre; 20 DU/Gross Acre
ATTACHMENT 1 - 6
Preliminary Findings: Springfield Housing Needs Analysis
15 Oct 2007
Page 7
Table 6. Allocation of needed housing units by plan designation, 2007-2027
Low Medium High
Growth Growth Growth
Plan Designation
Percent of Need
LOR
MOR
HOR
Total
Needed Dwellings
LOR
MOR
HOR
Total
Needed Acres (Gross)
LOR
MOR
HOR
Total
59%
31%
10%
100%
4,234
2,247
720
7,201
941
225
36
1,202
59%
31%
10%
100%
5,754
3,053
979
9,786
1,279
305
49
1,633
59%
31%
10%
100%
7,455
3,956
1,268
12,678
1,657
396
63
2,116
Source: ECONorthwest
PRELIMINARY COMPARISON OF LAND CAPACITY AND NEED
Table 7 shows the capacity for residential development by plan designation. The results lead to
the following fmdings:
. Springfield has a need for additional residential land under any growth scenario. The
Springfield UGB has enough land for 2,111 new dwelling units. The housing needs
forecast projects a need for between 7,200 and 12,678 dwelling units.
· The Low Density Residential designation has a deficit of approximately 544 to 1,259
gross acres in the UGB.
· The Medium Density Residential designation has a deficit of approximately 194to 365
gross acres in UGB.
· The High Density Residential designation has a deficit of approximately 30 to 58 gross
acres in the U GB.
ATTACHMENT 1 - 7
15 Oct 2007
Preliminary Findings: Springfield Housing Needs Analysis
Page 8
Table 7. Residential capacity for needed dwelling units by plan designation,
Springfield UGB, 2008-2028
Low
Growth
Medium
Growth
High
Growth
Plan Designation
Needed Dwelling Units
LDR
MDR
HDR
Total
Capacity (Dwelling Units)
LDR 1,788
MDR 308
HDR 115
Total 2,211
Surplus (Deficit) - Dwelling Units
LDR (2,446) (3,966) (5,667)
MDR (1,939) (2,745) (3,648)
HDR (605) (864) (1,153)
Total (4,990) (7,575) (10,467)
Gross Residential Acres Needed for Addition to UGB
LDR 544 881 1,259
MDR 194 275 365
HDR 30 43 58
Total 768 1,199 1,682
4,234
2,247
720
7,201
5,754
3,053
979
9,786
1,788
308
115
2,211
7,455
3,956
1,268
12,678
1,788
308
115
2,211
Source: ECONorthwest
IMPLlCA liONS
The preliminary analysis suggests Springfield will be able to justify a UGB expansion for
residential land. ORS 197.296 requires cities to consider land use efficiency measures if the
housing needs analysis finds that the City may not meet identified housing needs. The measures
are intended to increase the probability that the needed housing types will get built. Specifically,
the statute states:
(6) If the housing need determined pursuant to subsection (3)(b) of this section is greater
than the housing capacity determined pursuant to subsection.(3)(a) of this section, the
local government shall take one or more of the following actions to accommodate the
additional housing need:
(a) Amend its urban growth boundary to include sufficient buildable lands to
accommodate housing needs for the next 20 years. As part of this process, the local
government shall consider the effects of measures taken pursuant to paragraph (b) of this
subsection. The amendment shall include sufficient land reasonably necessary to
accommodate the siting of new public school facilities. The need and inclusion of lands
for new public school facilities shall be a coordinated process between the affected public
school districts and the local government that has the authority to approve the urban
growth boundary;
ATTACHMENT 1 - 8
Preliminary Findings: Springfield Housing Needs Analysis
15 Oct 2007
Page 9
(b) Amend its comprehensive plan, regional plan, functional plan or land use
regulations to include new measures that demonstrably increase the likelihood that
residential development will occur at densities sufficient to accommodate housing needs
for the next 20 years without expansion of the urban growth boundary. A local
government or metropolitan service district that takes this action shall monitor and record
the level of development activity and development density by housing type following the
. date of the adoption of the new measures; or
(c) Adopt a combination of the actions described in paragraphs (a) and (b) of this
subsection.
(7) Using the analysis conducted under subsection (3)(b) of this section, the local
government shall determine the overall average density and overall mix of housing types
at which residential development of needed housing types must occur in order to meet
housing needs over the next 20 years. If that density is greater than the actual density of
development determined under subsection (5)(a)(A) of this section, or if that mix is
different from the actual mix of housing types determined under subsection (5)(a)(A) of
this section, the local government, as part of its periodic review, shall adopt measures that
demonstrably increase the likelihood that residential development will occur at the
housing types and density and at the mix of housing types required to meet housing needs
over the next 20 years.
It is common for jurisdictions to adopt combinations of policies to manage growth and improve
the efficiency and holding capaCity of land uses. Such policy groupings, however, are not
necessarily cumulative in their intent or impact. Polices that address similar issues may not be
mutually reinforcing. For example, having policies in residential zones for maximum lot size and
minimum density essentially address the same issue-underbuild in residential zones. Thus,
Springfield should carefully consider their policy programs and evaluate each policy option both
individually and in consideration of other policies.
ATTACHMENT 1 - 9